Trump Is Still In Control -- Most Activist President Since FDR -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48704TRUMP.

Earlier today, I wrote:

CHINA-US trade:

• China desperately needs US ethane (plastics);
• US auto manufacturers need rare-earth-based magnets.
  

That's it.

Then a telephone call between Trump - Xi. Talks to continue. In London.

Then this, late today: link here.

China has granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers of the top three U.S. automakers as supply chain disruptions begin to surface from Beijing’s export curbs on those materials.

At least some of the licenses are valid for six months. It was not immediately clear what quantity or items are covered by the approval or whether the move signals China is preparing to ease the rare-earths licensing process, which industry groups say is cumbersome and has created a supply bottleneck.

China’s decision in April to restrict exports of a wide range of rare earths and related magnets has tripped up the supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors around the world.

I'm headed to bed. It's been a busy day.

The art of the deal.

We're going to need a musical interlude. Give me time.

With regard to China:

• it's all about balance-of-trade: in the big scheme of things, a very, very easy negotiating issue; 
• Trump is eager to make a deal; 
• China desperately needs a deal; 
• western companies leaving China as fast as they can;
• bargaining chips:
• from China: rare-earth magnets for US car manufacturers
• from US: ethane

Top Stories -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48703TOPSTORIES.

China: blinks.

Geoff Simon's quick connects. Link here.

ABC’s Terry Moran suspended by network: unprofessional texting. Quick! What’s ABC worried about?

Tax evasion: California's governor Newsom suggested California may not pay the federal taxes that California owes the federal government; that's tax evasion.

ICE -- National Guard -- California: fight's on. Governor Newsom takes the side of the protestors. 

•  send in the US Marines and the National Guard: 
• first tranche of 2,000 soldiers sent in over weekend
• President Trump says he's sending in 500 700 US Marines to protect federal buildings in southern California
• when we lived in Los Angeles, if we had to mail a letter after hours, my wife didn't trust just any post office -- we drove "half-way across town" to get to the "Federal building" to mail our letter -- that's the type of building the US Marines will be sent to protect. 
• there's no way the LA mayor would be able to protect that building and Governor Newsom is unlikely to even know it's there.
  
• second tranche of 2,000 national guard soldiers announced by President Trump on Monday, June 9, 2025
  
• puts a lot of federal money at risk, including $4 billion for California's hobby horse, the bullet train.
• fortunately, the state is on record as saying they don't need federal money to keep the project alive. 
• July 17, 2025: Trump won't further fund the California bullet train; at risk, $4 billion. Will end up in court, but the writing is on the wall.
• Governor Newsom says the "rioting" is not any worse than what Californians see / experience after sports events; 
• many folks interpret that to mean the governor has no problems with Federal agents being physically attacked. 
• time for President Trump to start airing fireside chats on a periodic basis when events call for a presidential response / reply
• it would be must-watch television
• notify the opposition party at COB on the day the event would be aired 9:00 p.m. ET which would give opposition party to find a "paschal" lamb to reply
  

Trump -- Musk: public break-up. Trump doesn't sound like he's much interested in this story at the moment. Bigger fish to fry as they say.

Trump -- Powell: Trump calls the Fed chairman "too late Powell." Some think Trump may be right.

Russia - Ukraine: Ukraine takes out a third of Russia's strategic bomber fleet. With drones. Operation Spiderweb. Even JD Vance has to be impressed.

US Supreme Court: so far so good. Chief Justice Roberts is holding things together. He needs to get a handle on appellate court rulings. Somehow, local courts and appellate courts should not be ruling on presidential executive orders. When the US Supreme Court is unanimously ruling against appellate rulings, something suggests appellate courts are ruling inappropriately. And most "appellate courts" are simply rulings by a single judge. 

Unanimous: US Supreme Court rules unanimously in favor of a Catholic Services group. Link here.  The three rulings in this story were no-brainers, but it's refreshing that the court unanimously agreed in all /most cases.

Almost unanimous: 

• Supreme Court allows DOGE access to Social Security Administration records, lifting a lower court order.
• Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson dissented, arguing the court rushed before lawful access was determined. [I am not necessarily agreeing with the weakest link on the US Supreme Court, but I have to say that I am quite amazed at the ruling.]
  
• DOGE, once led by Elon Musk, aims to streamline government and detect fraud with the data. 

May unemployment report: new jobs way better than expected. Unemployment stays unchanged at 4.2. Does not look like a recession to me. At least not this week. LOL.

Broadcom (AVGO): link here.

Market: 4:30 p.m. CT, one-half hour after the close; Friday, June 6, 2025:

Geoff Simon's Quick Connects -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48702GEOFFSIMON.

• After twenty-five years, E&Ps sustain Bakken oil's long plateau -- Hart Energy

• No drinking water impact from 3 million gallon wastewater spill -- Bismarck Tribune

• Rep. Fedorchak says utility regulations hurt North Dakota -- Wahpeton Daily News

• CoreWeave signs 15-year mega-lease with Applied Digital data center -- The Register

• Armstrong challenges new study ranking state among worst in the US in economic climate -- WZFG

• Governor says state government growth needs to slow at WDEA-hosted oil event -- Bismarck Tribune

• Need for special session of legislature unclear with legal research underway -- North Dakota Monitor

• North Dakotans will see new income limits for state housing assistance programs -- Dickinson Press

• Eastern North Dakota landowners, townships file challenge to power line project -- Bismarck Tribune

• In sweeping tour, Fedorchak touts reforms, faces scrutiny on immigration, Medicaid -- Dickinson Press

• Sen. Cramer cautiously optimistic about revitalizing U.S.-Canada relations -- McKenzie County Farmer

• MHA Nation, Minot Air Force Base strengthen community ties with partnership event -- Minot Daily News

• State's total measles cases up to 34 between Williams, Cass, Grand Forks Burke Counties -- KFYR - TV

• Roise, Jantzer, Pitner, and Fuller qualify for ballot for special election for Minot mayor -- KFYR - TV

• "Unapologetically conservative" Freedom League organization forms in North Dakota -- Dickinson Press

• Northwest Area Water Supply project in Minot is facing a six-month delay in its completion -- KFYR - TV

• Minot voters narrowly reject city park district's sales tax proposal by 25 of 1,933 voters -- KX News

• Federal appeals court voids deal blocking bridge on historic Billings County ranch -- Dickinson Press

• Bakken BBQ brings food, fun and fundraising back to Dickinson; set for June 13 -- Dickinson Press

• Minot Job Corps shutting down; officials hope 'pause' doesn't mean finished -- North Dakota Monitor

• Extreme drought still a major problem for parts of western North Dakota -- Bowman County Pioneer

• Williston City Commission votes to name Steven Gutknecht the new Chief of Police -- KFYR - TV

• Armstrong appoints Minot attorney to judgeship in North Central Judicial District -- North Dakota Monitor

• Newcomers Gunlock, Sparks, and Wehrman on the ballot for Divide school board seats -- The Journal

• Beulah Public Schools will host its board elections June 10; three vying for two open seats -- The Beacon

• Superintendent Baesler's nomination as U.S. Assistant Secretary advances to full Senate -- The Beacon

• Governor signs bill requiring state's schools to have Emergency Cardiac Response Plan -- KFYR - TV

• Sloulin Elementary School is on track to be ready for occupancy in about a year -- Williston Herald

• Reconnecting to grassroots: US Congresswoman Fedorchak visits Killdeer High School -- The Beacon

• Minot Public Schools auctioning off seven portable classrooms units beginning June 9 -- KFYR - TV

• Williston Basin School District's free meal program underway; breakfast, lunch served -- KFYR - TV

• Three candidates being interviewed for Center-Stanton elementary principal -- The Center Republican

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney vows to fast-track country's major energy projects -- Oil Price

• Department of Energy unveils AI supercomputer aimed at transforming energy sector -- E&E News

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledges climate changing, doesn't believe it is a crisis -- NPR

• Trump signs 5 executive orders he believes will usher in a US nuclear renaissance -- RealClearEnergy

• Wildfires burning in Alberta have reduced Canada's daily crude production by about 7% -- Reuters

• Energy industry not quite sure how to interpret Trump's nomination of Laura Swett to FERC -- E&E News

• Trump to use emergency powers to boost US critical minerals production and processing -- Oil Price

• Trump administration walks back Biden administration rule "smothering" Alaskan oil -- Daily Caller

• China's coal power plant approvals rebound after first annual decline since 2021 last year -- Oil Price

• New York's green mandates leaving state exposed to blackouts, grid operator warns -- Daily Caller

• House panel probes climate change crackdown on businesses by Biden DOJ, EPA -- Washington Times

• Global revolt: Over 1,000 "green energy" projects have been rejected worldwide -- Issues & Insights

• Native Alaskans praise Trump's push to reverse Biden admin's sweeping drilling ban -- Free Beacon

• The Inflation Reduction Act is a $2 trillion lie that's crushing America's energy and growth -- Townhall

• China-linked non-profit caught bankrolling the push for New York's radical climate law -- Daily Caller

• Study finds urbanization behind rising temps, torching media's climate claims -- Just The News

• The Hurricane Hoax: Climatologists reveal what the IPCC doesn't want you to know -- Irrational Fear

The Renewable Energy Story Is Driven By Ideology -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48701RENEWABLEENERGY.

In response to the original post: link to this story.

A Japanese company has halted construction on a $1.6 billion factory in South Carolina to help make batteries for electric BMWs, citing “policy and market uncertainty.”

While Automotive Energy Supply Corp. didn't specify what those problems are, South Carolina's Republican governor said the company is dealing with the potential loss of federal tax breaks for electric vehicle buyers and incentives for EV businesses as well as tariff uncertainties from President Donald Trump's administration.

The South Carolina plant is supposed to sell battery cells to BMW, which is building its own battery assembly site near its giant auto plant in Greer. BMW said the construction pause by AESC doesn’t change its plans to open its plant in 2026.

AESC has already rolled back its South Carolina plans. They announced a second factory on the Florence site, but then said earlier this year that their first plant should be able to handle BMW's demand. That prompted South Carolina officials to withdraw $111 million in help they planned to provide.

I think there's more to the story. None of which has to do with Trump but Trump will get all the blame. 

For more on the BMW story, see this link.

************************************
A Musical Interlude

Link here.

*********************************
Original Post

See this post.

So, two energy truisms:

• the AI story is an energy story;
• the renewable energy story is driven by ideology.

China took advantage of #2 and played America for thirty years.

From Barron's today: link here.

The “Big, Beautiful” Republican tax and spending bill is giving clean-energy companies fits. It ends tax credits early for things such as solar panels and battery factories, takes away support for electric vehicles, and will make wind turbines even harder to install.

But one section of the bill appears to be causing the most headaches of all—a new set of provisions that takes away tax credits if a project relies on China for any part of its clean-energy-supply chain. That could include components as small as wires or specialized screws, according to people in the industry and tax lawyers. The anti-China rules are “unworkable,” said Jim Murphy, CEO of leading renewable developer Invenergy, at a conference held by the American Council on Renewable Energy in New York this week. “They really close the door on any ability to do any broad deployment.” Invenergy is privately held, but other major renewable developers like NextEra Energy and AES are publicly traded.

China dominates the supply chain for almost all clean-energy products, from base molecules, such as rare earth minerals and polysilicon, to the finished products. That’s been a concern for lawmakers of both parties, with Republicans raising particularly loud alarms. Just this week, Republican Senators Rick Scott and Marsha Blackburn demanded an investigation into an anonymously sourced report that some Chinese solar components had been found to contain communications devices.

Those kinds of worries are why Republicans in the House of Representatives included language in the tax bill to deny credits for any equipment with connections to a “Foreign Entity of Concern,” which includes China. Those rules are now being debated in the Senate, and could change in the weeks ahead. Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican from North Carolina, said that the provisions on China are “void of any understanding of just how these supply chains work,” though it’s not clear if he’ll force any changes.

On its face, the ban on Chinese material would seem to help U.S. clean-energy deployers and manufacturers. The U.S. has been trying to catch up to China in clean energy. The Inflation Reduction Act set aside $370 billion to support that effort. Renewable projects like solar farms can qualify for credits worth 30% or more of the value of the installation, and there are valuable subsidies for products made in domestic factories.

It’s starting to work. Today, U.S. factories make enough solar panels to fulfill much of the country’s demand for them. But there’s a very big hitch. The subcomponents of those panels are still made almost exclusively in China, which has spent more than a decade building up its supply chain. The same thing goes for the cells in batteries that go into electric vehicles and power-storage devices. On its latest earnings call, Tesla said it still relies on Chinese battery cells, though it’s trying to shift some manufacturing to the U.S. “We are in the process of commissioning equipment for the local manufacturing of LFP [lithium iron phosphate] battery cells in the U.S.,” Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said.

 ****************************************
Amphibious Landings

Today: there were very few stories in mainstream media today regarding D-Day, June 6, 1944. 

When I was looking something up regarding D-Day, AI replied that the landings on the beaches of Normandy, France, was one of the largest amphibious assaults in history.

I was surprised ot see "one of the biggest." So I asked AI what was the largest amphibious assault in history. This time, AI, the same "source of AI," got it right, saying that the invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944, was the largest amphibious assault in history.

Quick! What was the second largest amphibious assault in history? The Battle of Okinawa.

What was the third? The Gallipoli Campaign.

Number four? The Invasion of the Philippines.

What was Operation Chromite? Number 5. The Inchon Landing, Korea.

Will the Taiwan Invasion be among the top 5?

No New Permits; Four Permits Renewed -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48700B.

Today: there were very few stories in mainstream media today regarding D-Day, June 6, 1944. 

When I was looking something up regarding D-Day, AI replied that the landings on the beaches of Normandy, France, was one of the largest amphibious assaults in history.

I was surprised ot see "one of the biggest." So I asked AI what was the largest amphibious assault in history. This time, AI, the same "source of AI," got it right, saying that the invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944, was the largest amphibious assault in history.

Quick! What was the second largest amphibious assault in history?

What was the third?

Number four?

What was Operation Chromite? Number 5. 

Will the Taiwan Invasion be among the top 5? 

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

Locator: 46851B.

WTI: $64.58. Up $1.21 which seemed to catch some folks by surprise.

Active rigs: 34.

No new permits, only four permit renewals:

• Neptune Operating, #39969 - #39972, inclusive.
• one CPEUSC Holmes well and three CPEUSC Chase Douglas wells, all in Winner oil field, Williams County.

North American LNG Export Facilities -- An Update -- EIA -- From December, 2024 -- Posted June 6, 2025

Locator: 48699LNG.

A reminder: the AI story is an energy story.

Another aha: the renewable energy story is driven by ideology. We'll explore the implications of that in a separate blog.

So, two energy truisms:

• the AI story is an energy story;
• the renewable energy story is driven by ideology.

Link here. 

Time period: end of of 2024 through 2028 -- essentially three years. 

North America looks to double LNG exports over the next three years -- most of it from the US:

Amount of exports from various export terminals:

Compare this chart with previous graphics. 

It's easy to forget that not many years ago, the US was a net importer of natural gas. From the 1970s through the 1980s, the US began importing LNG in small quantities due to energy crises (plural) and limited domestic natural gas supply.

Then, in the 1990s, extending into the early 2000s, imports increased, especially as domestic natural gas declined and demand rose.

"Early 2000s": important dates:

• the Bakken revolution began in the year 2000 with economic development of the Bakken began in the year 2000;
• the Bakken revolution took a great leap forward in the year 2007 with the "discovery" Bakken well in the Parshall oil field by EOG.
• the Bakken entered its "stride" in 2010 to 2012, at the same time the Permian was beginning to be developed.
• at the same, natural gas fields were being developed in the Haynesville, (Permian), (Eagle Ford), the Utica, and the Marcellus.

Operation Spiderweb -- June 1, 2025 -- Posted June 6, 2025

Locator: 48698BOMBERS.

Imagine if the US lost one-third of its strategic bomber force in one night.

Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, executed on June 1, 2025, targeted five Russian airbases using 117 drones launched from within Russian territory. The operation reportedly destroyed or disabled 41 aircraft, including Tu-95 (Bear) and Tu-22M3 (Backfire-C) bombers and A-50 surveillance planes, amounting to approximately 34% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. 

• Bear:
• first flight: 1951
• four x turboprop engines with contra-rotating propellers
• strategic nuclear deterrence
• noted for range and endurance
• Backfire-C (think the US Rockwell's B-1B Lancer):
• first flight, 1969
• M3 variant entered service in 1989
• 2 x turbofan engines
• range: 4,300 miles with aerial refueling
• primary role: tactical and maritime strike missions
• primarily used in regional conflicts (e.g., Ukraine)

It is believed that Russia is incapable of replacing these bombers.

US bomber fleet:

• B-52H Stratofortress
• B-1B Lancer
• B-2A Spirit
• B-21 Raider -- expected to be in service, 2027 -- Northrop-Grumman, wiki.
  

But also,

• the F-35 does have these munitions:
  
• JDAMs, 
• small diameter bombs; and, 
• nuclear gravity bombs (B61-12)
• but the F-35 is considered a tactical platform, not a strategic platform.
  

A Manhattan Project Interlude -- Just Some Of The Many Varieties Made By The Manhattan Project -- Dallas, TX -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48697BEER.

Made in Dallas, TX.

MSFT: Hits New Record High -- June 6, 2025

Locator: 48696MSFT.

CHINA-US trade:

• China desperately needs US ethane (plastics);
• US auto manufacturers need rare-earth-based magnets. China blinks. Link here.
  

Warren Buffett, ask ChatGPT anything -- "Buffett said he was making a huge purchase in the first quarter of 2025 but SEC allowed him to keep it secret; any update?

Reply: Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has disclosed that the confidential investment made in the first quarter of 2025 was a substantial stake in Chubb Limited (NYSE: CB), a leading global property and casualty insurance company.

Berkshire accumulated approximately 26 million shares, valued at around $6.7 billion, representing a 6.4% ownership in Chubb as of March 2025.

The SEC granted Berkshire confidential treatment for this investment to allow the firm to build its position without influencing the market price.

This approach is consistent with Berkshire’s past practices when acquiring significant stakes in companies like Chevron and Verizon. Chubb’s stock experienced a notable increase following the disclosure, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s prospects and the significance of Berkshire’s investment.

Warren Buffett, 1Q25: reported yesterday by MarketWatch. That source did not mention Chubb.

• did not open any new positions (no word on "secret" new position rumored earlier)
• exited, completely, had trimmed in prior quarters:
• Nu Holdings (NU)
• Citigroup (C)
• maintained his massive stakes in:
• CVX
• AAPL
• added to positions:
• Constellation Brands (STZ), "bulked up" -- Corona Beer; opened his position in 4Q24
  
• Pool (POOL)
• Sirius XM (SIRI)
• Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
• VeriSign (VRSN)
• Heico (HEI)
• OXY (interesting, very interesting)
• remains pessimistic with banks and financial stocks; pared large positions in
• BofA (BAC)
• Capital One (COF)
• other reductions:
• Charter Communications (CHTR)
• DaVita (DVA)
• T-Mobile (TMUS)
• Liberty Media (FWONK)
• Legacy
• AAPL: now makes up 28% of Berkshire's total equity portfolio, up from 6% in 2016
• notably: essentially nothing in tech

Five-year return (rounded) -- these numbers don't mean a lot in the big scheme of things; may or may not include unreinvested dividends; reinvested dividends, specific dates when bought and sold. All data taken from Yahoo!Finance.

• NVDA: 1,500%
  
• AMD: 120%
  
• AAPL: 144%
  
• MSFT: 150%
  
• INTC: - 50%
  
• AMZN: 60%
  
• META: 200%
• SNOW: - 10%
• AVGO: 700%
  
• BRK-B: 145%
  

********************************
The Market In Early Trading

It's as if yesterday never happened. 

Open:

• Dow Jones: +417 --> +526
  
• S&P 500: +60 --> +66
  
• NASDAQ: +230 --> +232
  

S&P 500: reaches 6,000.

• the all-time high closing value for the S&P 500 was 6,144.15 on February 19, 2025.

AAPL: up $4.29; up over 2%; now trading about $205.17. 

AVGO: down $10; down almost 4%; trading at $250.

************************************
Is California Ready To Implode?

Statistics:

Central Valley:

• middle class to upper-income neighborhoods: as many as 40- 50 people living in home zone for "single-family" occupancy; how do they manage? Port-a potties and Winnebagos.
• 20% of the population at or below the poverty level;
• 33% of the population on public assistance live in Califonia;
• 40% of the population are on Medi-Cal;
• 50% of all births are covered by Medi-Cal;
• 27% of the resident population was not born in the US
• huge black market economy: flea markets and restaurants do not collect state sales tax.

When we lived in San Pedro, Los Angeles, California: on all small residential streets with 1500-square-foot single-family units with a small one-car garage, there were as many as four to five cars parked in front of each of these houses, on the street, or double-parked / triple-parked on the driveway / lawn.

Property tax does not come close to paying for public school requirements when two to three families with six young children live in a 1500-square-foot home designed for one family with two children.

Gang members in Compton: have gone to public authorities complaining that cartel gangs from south of the border are creating major problems for US gang members and their extended families.

State income tax: 10% once income reaches $70,000.

****************************
Origin Of Life

Link here. Link here.

Lead author: Sawsan Wehbi, Genetics Graduate Interdisciplinary Program, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.

Amino acids date back four billion years, the last universal common ancestor (LUCA).

Scientists have creaated an evolutionary tree of amino acids, a tree of these protein domains.

Trytophan, designated by the letter "W" was the last of the 20 canonical amino acids to be added to the genetic code, but "W" has now been found to exist pre-LUCA.

Nohting new here: again, suggesting these amino acids emerged around the alkaline hydrothermal vents that are believed to have played a key role in how life began, despite the fact that the resulting life forms did not live there for long.

************************
Haircut By Sophia

Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves -- April, 2025, Data -- Russia's Foreign Exchange Reserves -- May, 2025, Data -- Posted June 6, 2025

Locator: 48695SAUDI.

Link here.

Russia, link here, May data:

China, link here: