2024: The Day The Music Died -- December 21, 2024

Locator: 44498HYDROGEN.

Link here.

From Motley Fool, the same folks who are telling us that Buffett is likely to sell the rest of his AAPL in 2025.

Power Plug: I remember when Motley Fool recommend this company back in January, 2000, and many times since. It's one of their favorites, it seems:

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  
• Longer version here. 

Greta May Have Missed This; John Kerry Certainly Did -- June 18, 2022

Link here.

Where's Waldo? April 16, 2019

Link here.

I'm somewhat disappointed in the graph below. Note, this graph comes from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, a highly respected laboratory, and the US government. Even the URL is ".gov."

But yet these is something very wrong about the graphic. Do you see what is wrong with this graphic? It is difficult to see on this graphic; you really have to download the image (at the link) to see the error.

Some may consider it a very subtle manipulation. I don't know.

But note: the graphic is not to scale. Look at the source blocks at the left for solar, nuclear, hydro, wind, geothermal, and biomass. The six blocks differ very, very slightly in size but for the most part, the rectangles for those six sources of energy are all the same size. Biomass at slightly more than 5 quads should be five times the size of solar at slightly less than 1 quad.

I mis-read the graphic the first time. It appears that the "solar" rectangle is the same size, or perhaps even larger than the "nuclear" rectangle. It's almost impossible to read unless you download the actual graphic, but it appears to be 8.44 quads.

So, the solar source is 0.949 quads and the nuclear source is 8.44 quads and yet the boxes are nearly the same size, and because of the color or actual size, the solar box appears to be bigger than the nuclear box.

Once that is pointed the rest if obvious. Obvious distortion. The petroleum box should be almost 40x the solar box; in fact, the petroleum box is about 5x the solar box.

The wind box should be 2.5x the size of the solar box, and the two are almost equal in size.

Solar should be 5x the size of the geothermal box, and yet the two are almost equal in size.

I may be misreading something, but I've looked at it several times and that's what I'm seeing.

The narrative is even worse. The ".gov" or Lawrence Livermore is certainly trying -- it appears -- to establish a narrative and an agenda.

If you can't read the numbers for the boxes at the left, here they are:

• solar: 0.949
• nuclear: 8.44
• hydro: 2.69
• wind: 2.53
• geothermal: 0.217
• natural gas: 31
• coal: 13.3
• biomass: 5.13
• petroleum: 36.9

Not perfect rounding but if I had a 30-second elevator speech:

• petroleum: 40%; almost half
• natural gas: 30%
• petroleum and natural gas together: 70%
• coal: 15%
• petroleum, natural gas, coal, together: 80%
• wind: 3% 
• wind: 2.5x solar
• solar: inconsequential

Oh, did I forget geothermal?

No, not even enough to make my 30-second elevator speech.

Pocahontas: wants to ban drilling for oil and natural gas on federal land.

Headline: Democratic presidential candidate wants to ban oil drilling.

Green Energy -- The Harsh Reality -- March 20, 2018

Updates

Later, 6:34 p.m. Central Time: the Kennedy clan is no doubt getting ready for their fourth family reunion of the winter/spring to celebrate all the snow. Vencore Weather is reporting a major coastal storm with significant impact all along the I-95 corridor.  

Original Post 

This is interesting. When I first started investing in 1984, with an energy- and telecom-weighted portfolio, I always worried that I would not know when to liquidate my energy holdings, expecting that oil and natural gas would come to an end when i was in my early 60's or 70's. Not to worry. It looks like I can hold on to my energy holdings for another 50 years.

But before I get to the article, a screenshot from yesterday's Drudge Report:

Later: now it's in blue on the Drudge Report -- 11:03 a.m.:

From oilprice.com yesterday:

I recently asked a group [most likely millennials] gathered to hear me speak what percentage of the world's energy is provided by these six renewable sources: solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tidal, and ocean energy.

Then came the guesses: To my left, 25 percent; straight ahead, 30 percent; on my right, 20 percent and 15 percent; a pessimist sitting to the far right, 7 percent.

The group was astonished when I related the actual figure: 1.5 percent. The figure comes from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, a consortium of 30 countries that monitors energy developments worldwide. [And this is after decades of cajoling, fake news, tax credits, incentives, regulations, federal and state mandates.]

The audience that evening had been under the gravely mistaken impression that human society was much further along in its transition to renewable energy. Even the pessimist in the audience was off by more than a factor of four.

I hadn't included hydroelectricity in my list, I told the group, which would add another 2.5 percent to the renewable energy category. But hydro, I explained, would be growing only very slowly since most of the world's best dam sites have been taken.

The category "Biofuels and waste," which makes up 9.7 percent of the world total, includes small slivers of what we Americans call biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), I said, but mostly represents the deforestation of the planet through the use of wood for daily fuel in many poor countries, hardly a sustainable practice that warrants vast expansion. (This percentage has been roughly the same since 1973 though the absolute consumption has more than doubled as population has climbed sharply.) 

As if to underline this worrisome state of affairs, the MIT Technology Review just days later published a piece with a rather longish title: "At this rate, it’s going to take nearly 400 years to transform the energy system."

In my presentation I had explained to my listeners that renewable energy is not currently displacing fossil fuel capacity, but rather supplementing it. In fact, I related, the U.S. government's own Department of Energy with no sense of alarm whatsoever projects that world fossil fuel consumption will actually rise through 2050. This would represent a climate catastrophe [LOL], I told my audience, and cannot be allowed to happen. [He needs to take a look outside -- see screenshots above -- and quit relying on Algore's PowerPoint presentations.]

And yet, the MIT piece affirms that this is our destination on our current trajectory. The author writes that "even after decades of warnings, policy debates, and clean-energy campaigns—the world has barely even begun to confront the problem."

Much, much more at the link.

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Notes To The Granddaughters

One book today: The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300 - 1850, Brian Fagan, c. 2000

A reminder: due to all the coal-burning Viking ships, the Medieval Warm Period lasted from around 1000 BCE to about 1300 CE.

A major -- get this -- one, single, major volcanic eruption generates a cold snap, 1258 CE.

1450: "greater storminess and unpredictable climatic shifts -- and very, very cold."

1670 - 1710: "the coldest period of the Little Ice Age."

Warming begins about 1850.

Algore notes the warming trend, 1994.

The author: Brian Fagan is a professor of archaeology at UC-Santa Barbara. He is the editor of The Oxford Companion to Archaeology.

Preface:

• people dancing at fairs on a frozen River Thames in London in the jolly days of King Charles II
• legends of George Washington's raging Continental Army wintering over at Valley Forge in 1777 - 1778
• only two centuries ago Europe experienced a cycle of bitterly cold winters, mountain glaciers in the Swiss Alps were lower than in recorded memory; pack ice surrounded Iceland for much of the year
• we live in an era of global warming that has lasted longer than any such period over the past thousand years [we won't mention the medieval warming period here or the era of dinosaurs -- it would not fit the story line]

Part One: Warmth and Its Aftermath

Chapter 1: The Medieval Warm Period, 950 - 1500 -- the story of the Vikings

• 980s: Norse settlement of Greenland
• 1066: William the Conqueror invades England
• late 1100s: cathedral building
• 1200: crusades begin; last for decades
• 1258: large volcanic eruption causes cold summer
• 1300: Hanseatic League rises to prominence
• between 1300 - 1500
• Great Famine (1315 - 1321)
• Black Death (c. 1348)
• Abandonment of Norse Western settlement, Greenland (c. 1350)
• Hundred Years War (1337 - 1483
• wine cultivation abandoned in England

Chapter 2: The Great Famine

• the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
• trade and geography made Flanders one of the leading commercial centers of 14th century Europe
• 1315: cold weather; crops not harvested; beginning of the Great Famine
• famine lasted for seven years
• the story of medieval farming as much as the weather

Part Two: Cooling Begins

Chapter 3: The Climatic Seesaw

• some experts: 1300 - 1850
• the heavy rains and great famines in 1315 - 1316 marked the beginning of centuries of unpredictability throughout Europe
• other authorities restrict the term "Little Ice Age" to a period of much cooler conditions over much of the world between the late 17th (1680; Industrial Revolution began about 100 years later) centuries to the mid-nineteenth (1850) centuries (right through the Industrial Revolution and into the US Civil War)
• what caused the Little Ice Age? The answer still eludes us -- centuries later [but experts have the current cycle of global warming all figured out, and it's all because of "America," specifically the US and the GOP]

Chapter 4: Storms, Cod, and Doggers

• back to the Vikings, when they first noted the weather change to severe cold and northern ice packs
• Eric the Red, Norse merchant ships (knarrs): most direct route from Iceland to East Greenland, along latitude 65 degrees north, then coasted south and west around Cape Farwell to the Eastern Settlement
• herring fishing
• herring abounded in the North Sea
• Dutch invented the buss, a much larger ship that allowed sailors to stay out at sea for a longer period of time
• Dutch and the Basques: skilled boatbuilders
• a small boat originally used on the Dogger Bank in the southern North Sea and for cod fishing: the dogger
• English were quick to make use of the doggers; the English dogger fleets were so efficient that Iceland's leaders soon complained to their Danish masters that the foreigners were decimating the fish population

Chapter 5: A Vast Peasantry

• village life in medieval France
• by the beginning of the 15th century (1400), the depopulation of the countryside by famine, plague, and war had led to the abandonment of as many as 3,000 villages across France alone
• the recurrent plagues and regular famines kept population in check for generations
• 1430s: a run of exceptionally harsh winters
• 1500s: glacial advance noted
• in 1599 - 1600, the Alpine glaciers pushed downslope more than ever before or since
• 1560 - 1600: throughout Europe, the years were cooler and stormier, with late wine harvests and considerably stronger winds than those of the 20th century
• farming difficult across Europe; farming was just as difficult in the fledgling European colonies in North America

Part Three: The End of the "Full World"

Chapter 6: The Specter of Hunger

• subsistence farming
• the severe weather of the 1590s marked the beginnings of the apogee of the Little Ice Age, a regimen of climatic extremes that would last over two centuries
• 17th century literally began with a bang; between February 16 and March 5, 1600, a spectacular eruption engulfed the 4,800-meter Huanyaputina volcano seventy kilometers east of Arequipa in southern Peru
• the scale of hte Huanyaputina eruption rivaled the Krakatau explosion of 1883 and the Mount Pinatubo event in the Philippines in 1991
• volcanic events produced at least four more major cold episodes during the 17th century, which is remarkable for having at least six climatically significant eruptions; none rivaled summer 1601, but 1641 - 1643; 1666 - 1669; 1675; and 1698- 1699 experienced major cold spikes connected with volcanic activity (note:1666 -- The Plague Year)

Chapter 7: The War Against The Glaciers

• 1680 - 1730: the coldest cycle of the Little Ice Age; temperatures plummeted; the growing season in England was about five weeks shorter than it was during the 20th century's warmest decades
• the winter of 1683 - 1684: particularly cold
• discussion of sunspots
• by any measure, the lack of sunspot activity during the height of the Little Ice Age was remarkable
• the period between 1645 and 1715 was remarkable for the rarity of aurora borealis and aurora australis, which were reported far less frequently than either before or afterward
• between 1645 and 1708, not a single aurora was observed in London's skies
• astronomers F W. G Sporer and E. W Maunder discussed
• glacial "high tide" in the Alps lasted from 1590 to 1850, before the egg began that continues to this day

Chapter 8: "More Like Winter Than Summer"

• "London has never forgotten the summer of 1666." 
• 1666: the Plague Year
• the London fire, September 2, 1666
• the late 17th century brought many severe winters, probably from persistent low NAOs
• the agricultural innovations of the 17th century insulated England from the worst effects of sudden climatic change

Chapter 9: Dearth and Revolution

• the remarkable transformation in English agriculture came during a century of changeable, often cool climate, interspersed with unexpected heat waves
• farms grew larger and more intensive cultivation spread over southern and central Britain
• more deaths came from infectious diseases due to malnutrition and poor sanitation than from hunger
• the importance of the wine industry to track climate change

Chapter 10: The Year Without A Summer

• April 11, 1815: the island of Sumbawa in eastern Java; Mount Tambora, at the northern tip of Sumbawa erupted with catastrophic violence
• volcanologists have fixed the dates of more than 5,560 eruptions since the last Ice Age; Mount Tambora is among the most powerful of them all, given rise the legend of Atlantic
• the ash was 100x that of Mount Saint Helens in Washington State in 1980; exceeded Krakatau in 1883
• the years 1805 to 1820 were for many Europeans the coldest of the Little Ice Age

Chapter 11: An Ghorta Mor

• Ireland, potato, and the Potato Famine
• summer of 1845
• by April, 1846, people were eating their seed potatoes
• 1846: widespread food shortages
• thus, the Little Ice Age ended as it began, with a famine whose memory resonated through generations
• Ireland changed radically as a result

Part Four: The Modern Warm Period

Chapter 12: A Warmer Greenhouse

• just a few short pages
• interesting that the entire book focused on science, nature, climate cycles, sunspots, volcanoes, North Atlantic Oscillation;
• the last few pages focused on climatologist James Hansen's testimony, June 23, 1988, before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee "on a day when the temperature in Washington, DC, reached a sweltering 38 degrees Celsius" [as folks would tell me, that's weather, not climate, and completely irrelevant; what a doofus]

Note:

• El Niño and La Niña are not mentioned in the book (I didn't see this discussed, nor were the words in the index)
• a very Euro-centric focus; not much on North America; nothing on South America, Africa, or Asia, except in passing or to discuss specific volcanic events 

Anticipating The Weekend -- European Forecast: Really, Really Cold -- February 21, 2018

This should be interesting to watch. Weather forecasters suggest this weekend could be the beginning of a particularly harsh cold wave stretching well into Europe, and south into Italy.

Link here.

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PES

Folks may remember this story:

• 2012: Philadelphia dying; refinery dying
• 2013: Philadelphia could become next "Cushing"; refiner will become single largest consumer of Bakken crude oil; CBR
• 2017: refinery bankrupt

I've blogged about this refinery on at least three occasions. This was a big, big deal at one time. Now, it's a big deal, but, sadly, for a different reason.

Previous posts:

• green energy scam will cost 1,100 Americans their jobs, January 22, 2018
• refiner to receive Bakken crude oil, October 3, 2013
• Philadelphia, the next "Cushing"? May 21, 2013
• single largest consumer of Bakken crude oil, February 22, 2013 

Today a Reuters story on a Ted Cruz rally at the refinery.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas on Wednesday urged President Donald Trump's administration to push for an overhaul of the nation's biofuels policy to save refinery jobs, during a rally at bankrupt oil refiner Philadelphia Energy Solutions in Pennsylvania.

The rally comes as the oil industry and the corn lobby clash over the causes of the Philadelphia-area refiner's insolvency, which has become a touchstone in the debate over whether the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard needs to be rewritten.

The decade-old regulation requires U.S. refiners to blend biofuels like corn-based ethanol into their fuel, or buy credits from those who do. While it has created a lucrative market for corn states like Iowa and Nebraska, refiners like Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) that have no blending facilities say it is unfair and costly.

PES, which employs more than a thousand people, declared bankruptcy in January and placed the blame squarely at the feet of the Renewable Fuel Standard.

The corn industry has pushed back, pointing out that other refining companies are raking in their biggest profits in years, and suggesting PES' problems may have had more to do with regional refining economics and management choices.

Reuters reported that PES' investor backers - led by the Carlyle Group - withdrew at least $594 million in a series of dividend-style distributions from PES since 2012, most of them backed by loans the company ultimately could not repay. The distributions, combined with a shift in U.S. energy economics, made complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) challenging for PES.

Green Energy Overreach? -- Even New Mexico Residents Can Figure This One Out -- March 13, 2017

In New Mexico, on the books: 20% renewable by 2020.

Cost of electricity in New Mexico: 9.62 cents / kwh -- not too far off the national average.

New Mexico considering 80% by 2040 (same link as first link). Voted down in committee.

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The Basketball Page

Wow. This is amazing. Two NBA conferences: west and east.

In the west, my favorite team, the San Antonio Spurs.

Standings:

• with 52 wins, is #1 Golden State.
• [update: with win over Atlanta, San Antonio Spurs to 52 wins, even with #1 Golden State]
• third place: 6.5 games behind -- Houston, with 46 wins.

Truly amazing. Love it.

Eastern Conference? I don't follow. I hardly follow the western conference any more.

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Applebee's

The one thing I hate to miss any weekend is a NASCAR race. All week I look forward to NASCAR. So when there's a conflict, I always look for a solution.

Yesterday was typical. All week I had been looking forward to the Las Vegas NASCAR race. Nothing on the schedule to interfere with the my opportunity to watch it. Then, at the last minute the "soccer gods" schedule a soccer practice an hour east of where we live, to begin about the same time the race is to begin. The last minute practice was scheduled to "make up" for an earlier practice canceled due to inclement weather.

But "the NASCAR gods" are on my side. After driving 40-some miles to drop off Olivia at soccer practice, I head straight for Applebee's on Main Street, Rowlette, Texas.

I get there in plenty of time; strike up a conversation with the bartender.

The bartender, I can tell, is not of Norwegian descent. A great bartender. I tell him I'll be there for two hours. I will have a small beer, and then order something off the menu, while waiting for our granddaughter to complete her practice.

And I would like the big-TV screen to be on the NASCAR race. Done.

After awhile, I ask the bartender where he grew up, his hometown?

He says New Orleans.

He says he moved to Texas after "Katrina."

He says it was the best thing that ever happened to him. He lost his home; his mother lost her home to Katrina.

He was driving home from Ferguson, MO, back to New Orleans, the day the hurricane hit. And then he lost it all. His mother also lost her home.

He was evacuated to Texas. I asked him if he entered Texas through Houston or Dallas. He said Dallas. He reiterated it was the best thing that ever happened to him.

He loves his job and he has a house.

I don't know how it came up in conversation. I know I didn't ask specifically. He says his mother and he were able to get re-settled in Texas, the best thing that ever happened to him.

He was about 30 years old, I suppose. Katrina hit in 2005, at which time he would have been about 22 years old.

How could his mother and he get resettled in Texas?

It turns out his mother at age 17 -- repeat, at 17 years old, a new mother -- bought shares of Walmart.

Doing the math, I assume she bought shares of Walmart back in 1980 or thereabouts. Posted earlier:

WMT: back in 1980 shares were selling for 29 cents, I believe, if I'm reading the chart correctly. If accurate, I assume that's based on split-adjusted shares/prices. We'll get back to this later. Wlamart shares are selling for around $70 now. Around $46 in 2005. Hold that thought. I will get back to it later.

So, how does a new mom at age 17 afford shares in WMT. I didn't ask, but I will bet she was a "checker"/cashier at a local Walmart in the New Orleans area. She must have listened closely to her manager, about the opportunity to buy shares in WMT.

I don't know.

All I could think to myself, "what a great country."

Puts Things Into Perspective -- August 26, 2016

Renewables include hydroelectricity, biofuels, wind, solar, and Willie Nelson's restaurant grease. Note the dramatic increase in "renewables" in 2015 compared to 2009:

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Active rigs:

	11/19/2015	11/19/2014	11/19/2013	11/19/2012	11/19/2011
Active Rigs	65	185	184	185	204

RBN Energy: Mexico's reforms aim to boost oil, gas sectors.

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Green Energy

Buyer's Remorse

The Register-Guard out of western Oregon is reporting that the Eugene Water & Electric Board made a mistake when it signed a long-term contract to buy power from a wood-burning electricity plant. I'm shocked! Shocked!

Signing the contract “was a mistake,” Mital wrote. “Management has looked into legal off-ramps. None can be found. We are stuck with it. I’d like to think that I would have voted against it had I been on the board ... But that’s a bit of a cheap shot. It may have seemed like a good bet at the time.” It is the sharpest public criticism an EWEB official has leveled against the secret contract that EWEB signed in 2010 to buy the Seneca plant’s power for 15 years.

In his comments, Mital also praised The Register-Guard for trying to force EWEB to disclose the utility’s contract with Seneca. Both EWEB and Seneca have refused to reveal even a single page of the contract and have fought the newspaper for five years in court over the matter. Mital made his remarks in the form of comments that he added to an opinion piece he wrote in The Register-Guard about an electricity rate increase EWEB is proposing.

With the signed 2010 contract with EWEB in hand, Seneca proceeded to build the plant. The federal and state governments awarded Seneca an estimated $28.8 million in grants and other subsidies for the project, court records show. Seneca opened the plant — which it says cost $61 million — in 2011.

Mital is the latest but not the first critic of the Seneca/EWEB deal. Detractors assert that the Seneca deal has driven up EWEB’s electricity rates, and say that burning wood waste harms the environment by releasing greenhouse gases.

EWEB says the contract is secret and can be withheld from the public under Oregon’s public records laws. It won’t disclose how much is it paying for the Seneca power. EWEB’s records show the plant is the second-largest source of power that EWEB buys, after power purchased from the Bonneville Power Administration. EWEB also generates power from facilities it owns, mostly dams.

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Fathomless Ignorance

The Boston Globe is reporting that the Massachusetts Attorney General sees no need for more gas pipelines. I'm shocked! Shocked.

Attorney General Maura Healey, who by law represents consumers in utility cases, said Wednesday that the state can meet its energy needs and lower costs without building new natural gas pipelines, citing a study that calls instead for improving energy efficiency and management.

The study was commissioned by Healey’s office, but financed by two national foundations that have contributed to environmental causes. In its report, the Boston consulting firm Analysis Group Inc. concluded that increasing energy efficiency and encouraging electricity users to scale back their use when demand and prices are high would keep the lights on and save consumers $146 million per year through 2030.
Savings from increasing the supply of natural gas — the main fuel used to generate electricity here — through expanded pipelines would save $133 million a year, the study estimated.

“This study demonstrates that we do not need increased gas capacity to meet electric reliability needs, and that electric ratepayers shouldn’t foot the bill for additional pipelines,” Healey said in a statement. “A much more cost-effective solution is to embrace energy efficiency and demand response programs that protect ratepayers and significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.” 

The attorney general apparently feels that the bar has been set: we only need enough electricity to keep the lights on; we don't need new jobs, new computer server farms, new start-ups, new manufacturing. We simply need to dial back our current use of electricity and increase rates on folks to make sure folks reduce their use of electricity. We only need enough electricity to keep the lights on.

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We Won't Know What's In It Until We Pass It

The Wall Street Journal reports the story that we've been reporting for some years now -- rising rates pose challenge to ObamaCare.

Many people signing up for 2016 health policies under the Affordable Care Act face higher premiums, fewer doctors and skimpier coverage, which threatens the appeal of the program for the healthy customers it needs.

Insurers have raised premiums steeply for the most popular plans at the same time they have boosted out-of-pocket costs such as deductibles, copays and coinsurance in many of their offerings. The companies attribute the moves in part to the high cost of some customers they are gaining under the law, which doesn’t allow them to bar clients with existing health conditions.

The result is that many people can’t avoid paying more for insurance in 2016 simply by shopping around—and those who try risk landing in a plan with fewer doctors and skimpier coverage.

Most people signing up for ObamaCare now realize that it's high-cost catastrophic health insurance. With the high deductibles, most people who qualify for subsidies realize they can't afford the "free" health care.

How Much Is Green Energy Costing The Germans? Green Energy Is Adding 20 Percent To Germany's Cost Of Living

Remember my earlier post this morning -- about how inexpensive electricity is in Texas? TXU is offering "free" electricity to those who switch. New residential customers can choose to have all their weekend electricity "free" or all their night-time electricity, Monday through Friday, 10:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m. free. I'm going with night-time free electricity; I can run the air conditional all night at no charge, and lower my monthly $45 electric bill even further. On weekends, I will spend the days at Starbucks or at the pool, and leave the a/c off at home.

Meanwhile this is the German experience with "green" energy:

German consumers already pay the highest electricity prices in Europe.

But because the government is failing to get the costs of its new energy policy under control, rising prices are already on the horizon.

German Environment Minister Peter Altmaier’s predecessor once claimed that switching Germany to renewable energy wasn’t going to cost citizens more than one scoop of ice cream.

Today Altmaier admits consumers are paying enough to “eat everything on the ice cream menu.” The government predicts that the renewable energy surcharge added to every consumer’s electricity bill will increase by 20 percent.

And because energy underpins everything else in the economy, one can safely say that "green" energy will raise the cost of living in Germany by 20 percent over time.

The linked article continues:

This year, German consumers will be forced to pay €20 billion ($26 billion) for electricity from solar, wind and biogas plants — electricity with a market price of just over €3 billion. Even the figure of €20 billion is disputable if you include all the unintended costs and collateral damage associated with the project.

Solar panels and wind turbines at times generate huge amounts of electricity, and sometimes none at all. Depending on the weather and the time of day, the country can face absurd states of energy surplus or deficit.

If there is too much power coming from the grid, wind turbines have to be shut down. Nevertheless, consumers are still paying for the “phantom electricity” the turbines are theoretically generating.

Go to the linked article to see just how bad this had gotten. 

Most Regressive "Tax" To Increase in Minnesota

Click here for StarTribune.com.

So, here it is.

Cue up Connie Stevens.

Minnesota's electricity rates will be raised 9% (numbers rounded).

And in 2013, likely to be raised another 10%.

No inflation.

Prior to 2006, there had been no rate increases for thirteen -- repeat, thirteen -- years. But now, this is the fifth rate increase in seven years for Xcel customers.

I could be mistaken but 2006 was about the time we first started hearing about "green energy" mandates. Prior to 2006, I assume most of Minnesota's electricity was produced by inexpensive North Dakota coal. Now, two new nuclear reactors. The story does not mention wind energy, unless I missed it. Actually, I am surprised there are two new nuclear reactors. Don reminds me that Minnesota does have a "25 by 25" campaign (25% renewable rate by 2025) which will further increase utility costs (solar is about 3x the cost of coal; I can never get a good figure on wind). But I digress.

The story:

The increase, Xcel said, is needed to recoup investments in its two nuclear power plants, counter a drop in electric sales and pay for other power plant and transmission upgrades and higher property taxes.

As part of the increase, all residential customers will pay an extra $2 for the basic service charge.

It is the fifth electric rate hike for Minnesota Xcel customers in seven years. The cumulative increases since 2006 have raised a typical customer's monthly bill $11.45, the utility said. The January bump goes on top of that.

The good news: the nine percent only amounts to a couple of six packs of beer, or a McDonald's meal for two, each month. For residential customers, this is not a big deal. For industry ... hey, North Dakota just got cheaper ... on a relative basis.''

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Meanwhile, in Colorado:

Xcel Energy on Wednesday asked the Colorado Public Utilities Commission for a three-year, 3.6 percent rate hike to cover the cost of upgrading its aging natural-gas pipelines.

If approved, the new rates would take effect in August, increasing bills for the average residential customer by 2.1 percent in 2013 and by 5.8 percent and 2.8 percent in the subsequent two years.

And, so it goes. 

Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken -- A123 Batteries -- A Mystery -- For the Bakken, Skip and Scroll

Updates

November 23, 2013: A123 is now B456, owned by the Chinese. 

Original Post

This story was on CBS Nightly News tonight -- Don alerted me to the story.

The story has to do with A123 -- a battery company located just "down the street" from where I'm staying. I've followed this story / this company for a very long time for many, many reasons.

For two earlier updates regarding A123, click here and here.

There are so many story lines, but the best I will save for last.

Story lines:

• It shows just how challenging this battery "stuff" really is. No breakthroughs despite many companies and many billions spent. Steve Jobs of Apple Corp (the computer company) once said his biggest challenge for the company was a better battery. (There is a company in Belmont, MA, that is working on a new battery; they may be closer to a breakthrough.)
• This is yet another company that received millions in stimulus money from the administration and has nothing to show for it.
• I had read the company's press release a couple weeks ago about a new battery. I did not know what to make of the announcement. According to the linked CBS story: "many analysts seemed underwhelmed."
• A123 is a battery company, so in light of the battery breakthrough announcement, this last paragraph in the story is very strange:

A123 isn't giving up. It still has more than 100 million federal stimulus tax dollars left to spend. Recently the company said it will hire 400 people -- not to build batteries for electric cars, but for power grids.

If the breakthrough was that big a deal, why wouldn't they be using the 100 million federal stimulus tax dollars and 400 new employees to press forward on this new technology?

That is a huge  story. In fact, some folks might think that is the big story, that the company, despite a breakthrough in battery technology, is moving into a new endeavor: "power grids."

Nope, this is the bigger story, and it starts earlier in the linked article:

The road wasn't always so bumpy. When President Obama announced 90-billion stimulus tax dollars for green energy, A123 stepped up for a slice of the pie. It spent $1 million lobbying Congress and federal agencies, and won 249 million in stimulus dollars.

When an A123 plant opened in Michigan in 2010, the company even got a call from President Obama. "I'm calling to congratulate A123 Systems on this tremendous milestone," he said.
 ....

Herrera was among 1,000 workers who landed jobs at A123.

But one month after that interview, A123 laid off 125 employees.

Then the luxury electric car Fisker Karma failed. It was powered by a faulty A123 battery. "It's low, it's sleek, it's sensuous... it's also broken! " said Consumer Reports.

Electric vehicles fall drastically short of Obama's 1 million goal

All of that was in the CBS transcript including that last link. 

[Note: CBS did not note that Fisker was a recipient of federal stimulus money also; if I remember correctly, the Fisker was going to be built overseas. But I digress.]

Finally: here's the big story -- CBS Nightly New has very limited time to present the news; the producer must be very, very selective in what he/she decides to air. The question is, and the big story is, why would CBS, a huge supporter of the president and liberal causes, air a story on another administration failure jut months before the election? In the big scheme of things, it's a pretty uninteresting story for the average viewer.  I cannot, for the life of me, figure out why CBS would air this story.

Crazy Season: Volt Demand Is Outstripping Supply

Link here to the widely-read autobloggreen.com.

According to the linked story, Volt demand is outstripping supply (I did not read the entire story; I don't know if the story mentions that the Volt manufacturing line was shut down for awhile so that supply could catch up with demand; as noted at that latter link, I can't make this stuff up).

March 2012 still stands as the high-water mark for Chevrolet Volt sales. That month, GM sold 2,289 Volts, a number that dropped to 1,462 in April. The news today is that sales climbed back up to 1,680 in May. GM's Twitter account says that demand for the 703 Volt in California is temporarily outstripping supply. We wonder if there are dealers in other states who would be more than willing to send their unsold units westward.

When it comes to the Nissan Leaf, the May number – 510 sold – is better than the 370 Nissan sold in April. Of course, it's fewer than the 579 units sold in March and is also less than half of what Nissan sold in May 2011: 1,142. For the record, there were 26 selling days in May 2012 and 24 in May 2011. For another record, while the vehicles aren't really comparable, the Smart Fortwo outsold the Leaf at 703 units in May. Just so you know.

"Eco-Cars Not Worth The Money -- MSNBC

Link here to MSNBC.

Hoping to squeeze every last mile out of a gallon of gas?  Automakers have been launching a flood of new “eco” models designed to do just that.  But a new report warns that the minimal extra mileage isn’t worth the hefty price tag – which in some cases would require as much as 38 years of driving to recover in terms of lower fuel costs.

The new study by Consumer Reports raises questions about a variety of conventionally powered Eco models, such as Ford Focus SFE, Chevrolet Cruze Eco and Honda Civic HF. But it was also skeptical of the benefits promised by some hybrid models, such as the new Toyota Prius C which, it declares, “is fuel efficient, but not a deal.”

Wow, when MSNBC starts reporting these stories, you know it's all over. Especially when the price of oil continues to drop significantly. 

Even the Prius is of questionable value. Let me know if the article talks about resale value (the most costly piece of an electric vehicle as a relatively short life-span), and there is no standard charging station deployed, meaning that most folks with these coal-powered cars, need to charge their cars at home.

A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending me this article. I don't visit the MSNBC website.

Sequel To Solyndra Released Just in Time for Summer

Splashed across the top of the fold on page B1 of the WSJ: Car battery start-ups fizzle, with this subtext: armed with $1.26 billion in US grants, firms opened nine factories; jobs and production lag goals.

This is the link.

$1.26 billion in US grants -- not tax credits, not tax incentives, but outright grants.

Since 2009, the Obama administration has awarded more than $1 billion to American companies to make advanced batteries for electric vehicles. Halfway to a six-year goal of producing one million electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, auto makers are barely at 50,000 cars.

The Department of Energy, which oversees the administration's advanced battery grants, says it is too early to judge the effort, and believes it will bear fruit when electric cars become a regular sight on American highways.

Believe. Hope and change.

Where's The Value? $42,000 and Top Speed: 65 MPH -- And That's The Problem (Along With Exploding Batteries)

Headline story in today's Los Angeles Times: another big bet in "EV" goes bust. 

For politicians betting on electric vehicles to drive job growth, the view from inside Think City's plant here is their worst nightmare: 100 unfinished vehicles lined up with no word on whether they will be completed.

Only two years ago, the tiny Think cars (two can fit in a regular parking space) were expected to bring more than 400 jobs to this ailing city and a lifeline to suppliers who once made parts for gas-guzzling recreational vehicles.

"We've said we're out to make Indiana the electric vehicle state. It's beginning to look like the state capital will be Elkhart County," Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said in January 2010 in announcing government incentives used to attract Think to his state.

Instead, the Hoosier State's big bet has been a bust. The plant is devoid of activity; there are just two employees. A Russian investor who recently purchased Think's bankrupt parent in Norway has been silent about its future. A government-backed Indianapolis battery maker that was to supply Think wrote off a $73-million investment in the car company and Thursday declared bankruptcy. Two unrelated electric truck makers Indiana planned to nurture have yet to get off the ground. [The government-backed battery maker was another one of Obama's initiatives. Another Solyndra.]

Indiana's foray into electric vehicles is a cautionary tale for states in hot pursuit of high-tech manufacturing jobs. Think's story illustrates how politicians so badly wanted to stimulate job growth that they showered the automaker and the battery supplier with tax benefits and incentives while at the same time failing to determine whether there was a market for the car: a plastic two-seater with a top speed of about 65 mph and a price tag approaching $42,000.

"Where's the value?" Gregg Fore, an Elkhart recreational vehicle industry executive, said of Think. "I could buy a golf cart for five grand if that's what I wanted to drive."

Fore says the federal and state governments as well as Elkhart subsidized the Think project apparently believing those tax benefits would drive down the vehicle's price and make the cars more attractive. "By giving money to the battery company and electric car company, they are saying, 'We want you to buy their products even though we know you don't want them.'"

No comment, the story speaks for itself. Except to say this was a headline story in the LA Times, not a trivial or conservative newspaper.

Where's the value? Where's the beef?

Breitbart: Fair and Balanced Report on Electric Vehicles -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With the Bakken

Link here.

The US auto industry remains unsold over the future of "green cars" such as electrics and hybrids, as carmakers struggle with the first steps in a market most agree shows promise over the long term. 

Automakers wheeled out a variety of new hybrids and plug-in electrics at the annual Detroit auto show this week, touting their great energy savings along with new, freshened designs.

But despite that apparent commitment, behind the scenes, the manufacturers remain split between doubts and optimism over their potential.

Ten years after the Toyota Prius hybrid swept into the market, only about three percent of all cars sold in the United States are electric or gas-electric hybrids, said David Cole, director of the Center for Automotive Research.

"Initially there was probably some excessive exuberance about the green auto," he told AFP.

"But the economics are not attractive yet for the average consumer." 

Nissan has sold only 9,700 of its all-electric Leaf in the US market, and General Motors has sold just 8,000 of its rechargeable hybrid the Volt since its launch at the end of 2010, below the targeted 10,000.

[Others] foresee the industry turning instead toward compressed natural gas as an alternative fuel, as gas prices falling due to the huge investments being made in extracting it from shale.  

Nothing Like A Recall to Shed Light on a Few Things -- Absolutely Nothing About the Bakken

Updates

February 7, 2012: Fisker continues to lay off more employees in the even as it seeks more government loans (bailout). The story was found in the India Times.

Original Post

Link here.

Fisker Automotive is recalling all 239 of its 2012 Karma luxury plug-in hybrid cars because of a fire hazard.

Prices on the 2012 model start at $103,000, including the destination charge.

In a report filed recently on the agency’s Web site, Fisker said some hose clamps were not properly positioned, which could allow a coolant leak. “If coolant enters the battery compartment an electrical short could possibly occur, causing a thermal event within the battery, including a possible fire in the worse case,” the company told the safety agency.

Other data points:

• This is the company in Finland to which the Obama adminstation loaned $529 million to develop $100,000 cars
• All 239 cars -- that's it -- $529 million for 239 cars; and they now cost $103,000
• But this is very, very interesting: "fewer than 50 vehicles are in the hands of consumers" -- which means the rest are with the company, the board of directors, insiders, etc. I doubt many are in show rooms -- and, if so, which show rooms

This sounds like a bunch of foreigners got a cool half-billion dollars to build themselves some personal luxury cars.

But, again, we are starting to see a common theme in coal-powered cars: coolant and batteries don't mix -- huge fire danger.

Again, without the Drudge Report, one wonders how much of this would really be reported by the mainstream media. It should be noted that the original link did not include that little tidbit about the half-billion-dollar loan from the Obama administration.

It was also interesting to note that The New York Times tried to dilute the irony of this story by peppering it with a half dozen other vehicular (and scooter) recalls. Italian scooter recalls? Give me a break.

******************

By the way, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots regarding a half-billion-dollar loan to a foreign car company and a re-election campaign. See first comment below if you need a hint.

By the way, that link:
".... follows a $465 million government loan to Tesla Motors Inc., purveyors of a $109,000 British-built electric Roadster. Tesla is a California startup focusing on all-electric vehicles, with a number of celebrity endorsements that is backed by investors that have contributed to Democratic campaigns."



Yes, Sir, I Can Boogie, Baccara

Wow: It Just Gets Worse and Worse -- The Obama-Gore-Finnish-Coal-Powered Car -- Worse Mileage Than a SUV

Link here.

The Fisker Karma electric car, developed mainly with your tax money so that a bunch of rich VC’s wouldn’t have to risk any real money, has rolled out with an nominal EPA MPGe of 52 in all electric mode (we will ignore the gasoline engine for this analysis).

Not bad? Unfortunately, it’s a sham. This figure is calculated using the grossly flawed EPA process that substantially underestimates the amount of fossil fuels required to power the electric car, as I showed in great depth in an earlier Forbes.com article. In short, the EPA methodology leaves out, among other things, the conversion efficiency in generating the electricity from fossil fuels in the first place.

52 mpg! Wow, the 2012 Honda Civic I drove from Williston, ND, to Boston, MA non-stop averaged 49 mpg. (I stopped for gas and occasional cat-naps. The most expensive part of the trip was the highway tolls through Chicago.)

Wow, it's been a great year or two. Circuited the entire US 1.5 times on Amtrak in the past two years. 2012 Honda Civic cross-country. Bakken photos.

Update on Chevy Volts --

Chevy Volt video from CNBC.com yesterday, October 12, 2011.

Data points:

• Sold so far this year (through September): about 3,800
• GM says will meet target of 10,000 this year (2,000/month for rest of year)
• Target for 2012: 60,000 (45K in US; 15K rest of world)
• Average income of Volt buyer: $175,000

I honestly have no idea why someone with an income of several  hundred thousand dollars (to get to the $175K average) would buy a Chevy Volt. My hunch: dealerships are counted in that average.

Renewables -- Green Energy -- National Scandal -- Others Using That Phrase

A constant theme of this blog has been the need for a level playing field when discussing energy alternatives, and science-based decisions. Policy decisions at the federal level are fine if folks agree to level playing fields and science-based decisions.

Less than that, I consider alternative energy proposals bad business. In some cases a harsher word might be used. I don't know if I have used those harsher words, although I have often implied them.

But here is someone who has strong words for alternative energy policies based on uneven playing fields and myth-based decisions.

This cliché within a mixed metaphor reflects the madness of President Obama’s obsession with “green jobs.” It would be bad enough if this disaster were limited to possible criminality at Solyndra — the solar-panel maker that Obama stimulated with loan guarantees, despite repeated warnings about its rickety finances.

“The true engine of economic growth will always be companies like Solyndra,” Obama proclaimed at its Fremont, Calif., headquarters on May 26, 2010. Not quite. Solyndra’s August 31 bankruptcy transformed 1,100 green jobs into pink slips and marinated taxpayers in $527 million of red ink.

But many green-jobs programs that have not been raided by the FBI — as Solyndra was last September 8 — nonetheless are fiscally reckless enough to merit a five-alarm national scandal.

Consider these other green bankruptcies: Spectra-Watt (website today says it is in Chapter 11);  Evergreen Solar (wiki says it is in Chapter 11; Evergreen Solar's website fails to mention that on the first page, at least as far as I could tell), and Mountain Plaza (filed for Chapter 11 in 2010 and I can't find their website).  [While we are at it, we can add one closer to home: Genesis Poly, Mankato, MN, recycling silage bags and hay wraps; bankrupt within two months, $850,000 lot paid for by federal govt; $500,000 from city of Mankato.]

A very, very good editorial. It's nice to have company.

Every dollar that chases a money-losing windmill is a dollar that cannot fund Head Start.

And don't even get me started on the whooping crane killing is okay if its done by a windmill.