Sunday, January 22, 2012

Wow, Wow, Wow -- That Was Too Close For Comfort -- And Overtime In The Second Game -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

As predicted, but a whole lot closer than I expected. 

Second game.
Overtime. Tied after a couple of possessions. New York Giants recover a fumble.
Bradshaw; two runs for ten yards. Down to the 10-yard line. A third run by Bradshaw. Down to the six-yard line. Centered. 3-point field goal attempt. Penalty, delay of game. 31-yard attempt. Ravens missed a 32-yarder earlier today. 36-yard attempt. The kick is on its way.... and it's good.  Officially a 31-yard attempt.
First game.
Link here.

I completely misunderestimated the Ravens.

But how does one miss a 32-yard chip shot in the NFL?

Park Oil Field -- Update -- Reader Asked Question -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA


August 13, 2015: I track the Pronghorn Federal wells at this site

September 3, 2012:  a reader sent in this update regarding the Park oil field:
Park is next. Park is just west of Bell. In fact, the border between Park and Bell is the Billings county and Stark county line. Section 24 in Park, which borders Bell, has a 2nd rig going, and next month, it'll go north into section 13. The northern and west borders of Park expanded this year, and starting in 2013 Park is going to get many more wells. Whiting has been focused on Bell, and Park's turn seems to be next.
April 6, 2012: see comment regarding Whiting's plans for their Pronghorn prospect -- three wells in each 640-acre spacing unit. It looks like Whiting might have another good well in the Park:
  • 20504, 2,696, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13TFH, Park,  t12/11; cum 188K 8/14;
March 13, 2012: Whiting's record TFS well (based on IPs), drilled in Park oil field, is now released from confidential list, and IP available:
  • 20526, 2,446, Whiting, Smith 34-12TFH, Park, Bakken, t9/11; cum 267K 8/14; 30 stages; 1.8 million lbs, sand and ceramics. 
I track the Pronghorn Federal wells at this site 

Data updated October 25, 2014.


32301, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 41-14PHU, Park,
32300, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-11PHU, Park,
32288, loc, Whiting, Smith Federal 34-12-2PH, Park, 
31781, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 24-12PH, Park, 1/12-140-100, Three Forks B1,
31780, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13PH, Park, 13/24-140-100, Three Forks B1,
31779, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13-2PH, Park, 13/24-140-100, Three Forks B1,
 2014 (list is complete)

28687, loc, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 14-9PH,
28056, 2,282 (see below), Whiting, Smith Federal 44-12PH, a huge well, the Three Forks Dolomite (Pronghorn Formation); during drilling, oil shows and background gas shows were described as "very good"; t4/15; cum 170K 9/15;
28055, 1,754, Whiting, Smith Federal 41-13PH, 17 stages, 1.6 million lbs, t5/15; cum 110K 9/15;
27967, loc, Whiting,
27692, 2,873, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 14-12H, t11/14, cum 215K 9/15;
27691, 2,683, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-13PH, t11/14; cum 181K 9/15;
27424, 1,869, Whiting, Talkington Federal 41-25PH, producing, a huge well; 22K first partial month; t8/14; cum 159K 9/15;

#28056, production profile:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 2013 (list is complete)
  • 26128, 413, CLR, Perch 1-30H1, 30 stages; 2.1 million lbs sand/ceramic; Three Forks First Bench, t3/14; cum 42K 9/15;
  • 25841, 469, Whiting, Babeck Federal 11-5PH, t1/14; cum 37K 9/15;
  • 24866, 1,729, Whiting, Drs Federal 11-25PH, t5/14; cum 103K 9/15;
  • 24830, 2,542 Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-11PH, 30K/month since 7/14; t7/14; cum 156K 9/15;
  • 24821, 1,236, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 14-11PH, t7/14; cum 73K 9/15;
 2012 (list is complete)
  • 24542, 1,176,Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-14 PH, Park, t7/14; cum 73K 9/15;
  • 24541, 1,113, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-14 CL PH, Park, t7/14; cum 71K 9/15;
  • 24430, 410, Whiting, Talkington Federal 11-26PH, Park, t1/14; cum 39K 9/15;
  • 24237, 854, Whiting, Babeck 41-5PH, Park, t5/13; cum 52K 9/15;
  • 24236, 315, Whiting, Babeck 31-5PH, Park, t5/13; cum 32K 9/15;
  • 24162, 1,327, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-10PH, Park, t7/13; cum 64K 9/15;
  • 24161, 716, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 41-15PH, Park, t8/13; cum 58K 9/15;
  • 24160, 863, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-10PH, Park, t7/13; cum 59K 9/15;
  • 24159, 1,195, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 14-10PH, Park, t2/15; cum 65K 9/15;
  • 24158, 954, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 11-15PH, Park, t2/15; cum 57K 9/15;
  • 24157, 1,179, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-15PH, Park, t2/15; cum 66K 9/15;
  • 24141, 509, Whiting, Talkington Federal 11-27PH, Park, t7/13; cum 40K 9/15;
  • 24140, 653,  Whiting, Talkington Federal 21-27PH, Park, t7/13; cum 51K 9/15;
  • 24139, 580, Whiting, Talkington Federal 41-27PH, Park, t7/13; cum 48K 9/15;
  • 23850, 508, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 41-16PH, Park, t5/13; cum 52K 9/15;
  • 23849, 572, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 44-9PH, Park, t5/13; cum 43K 9/15;
  • 23152, 722, Whiting, Talkington 41-26PH, Park, t9/12; cum 127K 9/15;
  • 23029, PNC, Whiting, Talkington 41-26X, Park
2011 and Before
  • 12923, dry, Whiting, Roxane 21-16H, s6/90; re-entry 11/11; t8/90 DRY; re-entry DRL; Park, Upper Bakken formation; as of April, 2012; re-entry drl --> dry --> SWD 3/13;
  • 20131, 1,343, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-11TFH, Park, t10/11; cum 133K 9/15;
  • 20404, 1,606, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-14TFH, Park, t10/11; cum 129K 9/15;
  • 20504, 2,696, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13TFH, t12/11; cum 227K 9/15;
  • 20526, 2,4446, Whiting, Smith 34-12TFH, Park, TFS, s6/11; t9/11; cum 311K 9/15;
  • 20672, 2,499, Whiting, DRS Federal 24-24TFH; Park,  t11/11; cum 164K 9/15;
  • 20839, 905, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 21-16TFH, Park; see comments regarding status of this well; t3/12; cum 63K 9/15;
  • 21090, 468,  Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-9TFH, Park, t5/13; cum 45K 9/15;
  • 21170, 1,041, Whiting, Talkington Federal 21-26TFH; Park, t6/12; cum 132K 9/15;
  • 21697, 396, Whiting, Redmond Federal 21-28TFH; Park, t4/12; cum 49K 9/15;
Original Post

A reader asked a question about production of wells in Park oil field. I answered him. Technically I was correct, saying that production of recent wells closer to 700 bopd rather than 1,500 bopd.

I had forgotten that the record TFS well (based on IPs) was drilled in Park oil field:
  • 20526, 2,446, Whiting, Smith 34-12TFH, Park oil field; the company says this is a record TFS well; production runs (still on confidential): Sept, 2011: 21,896; Oct, 2011: 29,153; Nov, 2011: 20,758; UPDATED ABOVE
The well is still on confidential status, but those are the production numbers for the respective months. Still flowing at 20,000 bbls per month, with 29,000 bbls in October is incredible. 

Park oil field is in Billings County, southwestern North Dakota; it borders Bell oil field and is northwest of Zenith oil fields. This is the area where record bonuses were paid not too long ago.

Park oil field is a very small field, only 18 sections, but it is very irregularly shaped and with quite a bit of undesignated land around it, it will probably get larger.

As of this date (all updates posted above):
  • 12923, SWD/dry, Whiting, Roxane 21-16H, s6/90; re-entry 11/11; t8/90 DRY; re-entry DRL --> dry/SWD; Park, Upper Bakken formation; as of April, 2012, no new information; still on DRL status
  • 20839, 905, Whiting, Pronghorn State Federal 21-16TFH, Park, s6/11; see comments regarding status of this well; t3/12; cum 63K 9/15;
  • 20404, 1,606, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-14TFH, Park, s7/11; t10/11; cum 129K 9/15;
  • 20131, 1,343, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-11TFH, Park, s7/11; t10/11; cum 133K 9/15;
  • 20526, 2,4446, Whiting, Smith 34-12TFH, Park, TFS, s6/11; t9/11; cum 311K 9/15; 
  • 21170, 1,041, Whiting, Talkington Federal 21-26TFH; Park, t6/12; cum 132K 9/15;
  • 21697, 396, Whiting, Redmond Federal 21-28TFH; Park, t4/12; cum 49K 9/15;
  • 20672, conf, Whiting, DRS Federal 24-24TFH; Park, t11/11; cum 164K 9/15;
  • 20504, 2,696, Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 21-13TFH, Park, t12/11; cum 227K 9/15;
  • 21090, 468,  Whiting, Pronghorn Federal 34-9PH, Park, t5/13; cum 45K 9/15; 
There was nothing in the well file to suggest why the Roxane was dry the first time around, nor why they are re-entering.

Lost Decade

Link here. After reading the story, the headline should have read: Another Lost Decade

It will be forever lost, who coined the phrase "lost decade," but I know I was among the first to use it.

I used the phrase in my first blog, which I deleted one evening in a fit of temporary insanity (wow, I lost some great posts).

The "lost decade" I was referring to was 2000 - 2010. I had periods of optimism in 2011 that "we" would be moving out of that "lost decade" into a decade of opportunity, but that, too, appears to be a mirage.

There will be a generation of Americans who will never work, at least not work in the area for which they had hoped. Another group of Americans, those aged 45+ and having been laid off from their life-long career, will also never work again.

For me, in the field that most interests me (energy), killing the Keystone XL may be the defining moment of 2012. I hope it is does not define the entire decade, but one wonders.

From the link above, in case the link breaks:
Five years after the credit crisis began, Western economies are confronting the prospect of a lost decade of growth, and international diplomats are warning the damage could get even worse if Europe allows its sovereign debt crisis to fester much longer.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde is heading to Berlin on Monday to urge action after the IMF called for member countries to provide the fund with $500 billion for new loans to help out troubled countries.

G20 officials also say Europe must double the size of its rescue fund to $1 trillion as a crucial step to stabilize financial markets and prevent the euro-zone crisis from spreading. Europe finance ministers meet on their debt plan on Tuesday.

The World Bank already sees the damage taking hold as European banks pull back their lending to emerging economies. Last week it slashed its growth forecast more than one percentage point to 2.5 percent for 2012, a pace not seen since 2008 when the world was last in a global recession.

Te Deum, Arvo Part
For Pat.

Where Should Developers Look in North Dakota? Bismarck, Minot -- Architects, Peas, Beans, and Pulses -- Why I Love To Blog, Reason #3,109

Two stories here: one from Bismarck, and down near the bottom, one from Minot.

Link here to a Business Tribune article.

An out-of-state developer wrote me yesterday (or the day before) asking where he/she should start looking if he/she wanted to build housing units to take advantage of the Bakken. He/she was concerned about over-building, especially if the Bakken leveled off.

I suggested staying away from the Bakken specifically. He should look east to Minot, Bismarck, and perhaps, even Fargo.

Looking west is a bit more difficult; I didn't have any specifics then, because I am not that familiar with activity in Montana, but my hunch says Billings might be the best spot for a new developer. But that might be a stretch. I really don't know.

But back to North Dakota, and why I love to blog. Within 24 - 48 hours of getting that query and replying, the Tribune has a story of the Bismarck boom. The headline: new professionals bring boom to Bismarck.
Looking for work as an architect in Minneapolis, Christopher Thompson faced a stifling unemployment rate in his field. He was hired by JLG Architects and moved to Bismarck.

"At first, I wasn't sure," Thompson said. "I came in during a snowstorm."

Thompson spends his time on biking trails and visiting local coffee shops. He now likes the town and plans to stay.

"Work is steady and a lot is coming down the line," he said. "A lot of the population growth has trickled down, so there is need for schools and housing. Architecture in North Dakota is booming and attracting people from all over the country."

Drawn by jobs, more professionals, like Thompson, are moving to Bismarck, bringing higher incomes and spurring new development.

"I think what we have seen is that the number of professional services has really expanded in the last 12 to 18 months," said Kelvin Hullet, Bismarck-Mandan Chamber of Commerce president.

There especially is growth in services related to the Bakken oil field, Hullet said.
Professionals like lawyers, accountants, architects and engineers are joining firms based in Bismarck and doing work for oil companies.
I wonder if the Dickinson Press editors have read this? I say this because it is professionals like Christopher Thompson who will help solve the problems with regard to transportation, highways, schools, air quality, waste disposal.

Some professionals, no doubt, will help the new millionaires manage their gobs of money.

Bernie Madoff has plenty of time to help answer financial questions, although I don't know if he answers his mail. He can be reached at the federal correctional complex in Butner, North Carolina.

I don't have his mailing address, but I assume you can reach Jon "I simply don't know where the money is" Corzine by writing MSNBC and CNBC, where he once contributed regularly as a guest. I don't see him there any more.

Please be advised of the disclaimer for this blog.

Meanwhile, a Williston-based agricultural processing facility will be expanding -- this time in Minot.
United Pulse Trading, has indicated that the planned facility will include the installation of pulse processing equipment for beans, chickpeas, peas and lentils to augment its U.S. processing capacity at its Williston, ND production facility.

The new facility in Minot will also add additional capacity for value-added pulses production of food ingredient pulses flours, proteins, starches and fibres. It is expected by United Pulse Trading that the new facility, once commissioned in August 2012, will feature an annual capacity of approximately 100,000 mt per year and provide origination reach into central and eastern North Dakota, which is a region of substantial acreage of beans, peas and pulses.

The planned United Pulse Trading facility will be located at Minot’s Value-Added Agricultural Complex, which features North Dakota Port Services Inc.  as an anchor tenant. NDPS provides, through Burlington Northern Santa Fe Logistics and BNSF’s Northern Tier Intermodal line, container services to the complex through its facility adjacent to BNSF’s main-line switch yard featuring daily service and four-lane highway access.

This expansion into Minot brings our company a tremendous amount of opportunity not only due to the city’s strategic location within a strong production area for pulse crops, but also because Minot is an important regional transportation hub,”....
BNSF is owned by Warren.

Another reason I love to blog. I know what beans are. I know what peas are. But I had never heard the word "pulses" in the same triad. According to wiki:
The term "pulse", as used by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), is reserved for crops harvested solely for the dry seed. This excludes green beans and green peas, which are considered vegetable crops.

Also excluded are crops that are mainly grown for oil extraction (oilseeds like soybeans and peanuts), and crops which are used exclusively for sowing (clovers, alfalfa). However, in common use these distinctions are not clearly made, and many of the varieties so classified and given below are also used as vegetables, with their beans in pods while young cooked in whole cuisines and sold for the purpose; for example, black eyed beans, lima beans and Toor or pigeon peas are thus eaten as fresh green beans cooked as part of a meal.

Pulses are important food crops due to their high protein and essential amino acid content.
Like many leguminous crops, pulses play a key role in crop rotation due to their ability to fix nitrogen.

A Most Unusual Story in Prairie Business -- Dabbling in Energy

This is a most interesting (unusual?) story in Prairie Business. My hunch is this link won't be around long.

I'm posting it because of the information about the North Dakota coal industry which I know little about. I can check it out on Wikipedia but that won't give me any idea of what's really going on now, or the "buzz" as they say.

The other two parts of the article are on South Dakota ethanol industry, known to some as the Daschle Debacle; and the Minnesota wind-generated electricity industry, the killer of birds.

So, a little bit of something for everyone.

Here are some data points for the ND coal industry. Well, actually not much. The two first paragraphs, instead:
North Dakota’s four lignite mines produce about 30 million tons of coal every year. About 80 percent is used to generate electricity and the other 20 percent is used to make synthetic natural gas and other valuable byproducts such as fertilizer. The electricity serves about two million customers in North Dakota and surrounding states. More than 50 percent of the electricity generated in North Dakota is used in Minnesota.

The state of North Dakota is one of 11 "clean air" states, which means it meets all of the federal government's clean air standards. The state receives more than $90 million in tax revenues every year from the lignite industry, and the mines and plants represent some of the best paying jobs in the state with salaries averaging about $80,000.

$80,000 salaries, average, in North Dakota! Wow. I had no idea. I wonder how much a windmill job pays?

Now We Know How the Native Americans Felt When The White Man Showed Up

Link here.

The link takes you to an editorial in the Dickinson Press that reads like a blog.

Based on what I've read in the Dickinson Press, the city has pretty much shut down development. I assume they must be talking about Watford City.

Faux-environmentalists do not support the Keystone XL; that takes the wind out of their angst about the highways. A 7-mile pipeline near Belfield will take 275 trucks off the road EVERY DAY (posted earlier) -- think how much rail traffic and truck traffic would be taken out of the picture if the Keystone XL was (were?) in place.

The One Who Got Away, Devil Doll
Listen to the great saxophone segments, if nothing else ...

And I'm sure Gary wrote this in response:

Sorry, Gary Allan

How Long Will A Bakken Well Produce?

Idle chatter.

One of the most frequent questions I get asked: how long will a Bakken well produce?

I've linked answers to that question at numerous posts, but don't have time to look for the links now.

How long a well will produce is irrelevant in my mind, except for the "cocktail chatter" it allows. Other parameters are much more important, including the ultimate production.

But to give newbies an idea of how long these wells will produce, look at some of the legacy wells at my "Monster Wells" page. As one example:
If this well is on a pipeline, and if it requires minimal upkeep to keep it going, its expenses are also minimal, and at $75/bbl, what's not to like? In November, 2011, it produced 700 bbls or oil. And as a stripper well, it gets certain tax advantages. And by producing, the lease is held for future drilling in the spacing unit.

The "Monster Wells" page is still being updated, as in very new; much to be added.

Oh, just to answer the question, how long will the average Bakken well produce? 39 years. 

The Crews Really Are Incredible -- Rambling Story of an Old "Bakken" Well

12481, 332, Summit Resources, Rauch Shapiro Fee 22-9R, Roosevelt field, Billings County, s7/88, t9/88; cum 302K 11/11

According to the scout ticket and the GIS map server: this is a vertical well drilled back in 1988; not hydraulically fracked.

It is in the southwest part of the state, so although the tick says the pool is the Bakken, one would think that it might have targeted the Three Forks.

And there it is: an early application to the NDIC said the driller was going to target the Three Forks formation.

So, what were the geologic markers?
  • Tyler: 7,986 feet
  • Base Tyler: 8,028 feet (thus the Tyler about 42 feet thick at this point)
  • Charles Salt: 8,596
  • Base Charles Salt: 9,103
  • Mission Canyon: 9,282
  • Bakken:10,521
  • 3 Forks: 10,524
  • Total depth for this well: 10,700
So the Bakken formation (not the Bakken Pool) is all of 3 feet thick in this area.

From the data, hard to say how thick the Three Forks is but I doubt they drilled unnecessarily deep.

Elsewhere these were the geologic markers accompanying another test:
  • Tyler: 7,980
  • Charles: 8,590
  • Madison: 9,105
  • Lodepole: 9,750
  • Bakken, 10,480
Even though it is a vertical well, there was fracking (which to me looks about 140,000 lbs.

It took about 37 days to drill.

This is why I think the crews are incredible: drilling down almost two miles, and delineating a formation (in this case, the Bakken formation) that is only a few feet thick. And this is back in 1988.

This is a stripper well and has been consistently producing about 500 - 600 bbls of oil per month since 1995.

This is just one of many, many stories that could be told.

Kuwait on the Prairie -- The New Yorker -- April 25, 2011

I have linked this story before, but a reader sent the link to me earlier today.

I know a lot of folks don't have time to surf this blog. It has an incredible amount of information -- I'm talking about the links to the professional writers, not my ramblings.

I will occasionally re-post some of these exceptional links.

Here's the link; it breaks occasionally.

$100 Oil Here To Stay? -- The Daily Ticker

Link here.

In case the link is broken, the analyst says this is why the price of oil will remain in the current trading range:

This week has been a near perfect storm for oil bears, featuring a series of reports pointing to falling demand:
  • A third-straight monthly drop in Chinese manufacturing activity
  • A steep rise in U.S. gasoline inventories to the highest level in 10 months
  • Hovensa LLC saying it will shut its St. Croix refinery, due to falling demand
  • The International Energy Agency's report that global oil demand fell by 300,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the first decline since the financial crisis of 2008-09. The IEA further warned of weak demand in 2012 as the global economy cools, due largely to the crisis in Europe
And yet, the price of oil remained near the $100-mark.

The analyst brought up numerous reasons why the price of oil will remain near $100, but he did not mention the most important recent headline and the most important trend.

Most important recent headline: Saudi Arabia has set a $100-price target for oil (that would be about $88 for WTI).

Most important trend: closer relationship developing between Saudi Arabia (largest producer) and China (largest accelerating consumer). China can afford higher-priced oil (with all its US dollars) and China has an enormous appetite.

So, nothing new: expect a lot of volatility, but the trend is obvious.

By the way, Canadian oil sands, largest reservoir of oil outside the Mideast, is not profitable below $60. The Bakken is robust above $40 according to one operator in the region.

ONEOK's Natural Gas Processing Plants -- Updated -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

Nothing new, but I updated some data points for the four ONEOK natural gas processing plants in the region.

Natural gas processing has turned out to be a much bigger story than most had envisioned, considering the Bakken is not considered to be a "gassy" formation.

By the way, if one digs a big deeper into the links, one gets a better feeling regarding the economic feasibility of these processing plants and the stories one reads about the low price of natural gas.

Impact of Killing the Keystone XL

The Dickinson Press has a story today about a Whiting pipeline that will be operational later next month.

It is a 7-mile long pipeline northeast of Belfield. Seven miles long.

It cost $3 million and it will replace upwards of 275 trucks/day.

275 trucks per day.

The $3 million stayed in the US economy: steel mills for the pipe, trucks to transport the pipe, heavy duty equipment to dig the trenches; high-paying jobs; money for rights-of-way to land owners. And once it's done, out-of-sight and out-of-mind.

Now imagine the amount of money that would have poured in the US economy had the Keystone XL project been approved and the amount of truck and train traffic it would have replaced -- both contributing to greenhouse gas emissions (for those so inclined to worry about such things). 

The link to the Dickinson Press story is here.

Wow, that's hard to believe -- a 7-mile long, $3 million pipeline that will replace 275 trucks per day and the Keystone XL killed by faux-environmentalists.

Although, from the perspective of jobs, that's a lot of jobs for truck drivers.