Monday, September 25, 2017

A Marathon Re-Frack Reported -- Mary Hansen #16925 -- September 25, 2017

The well:
  • 16925, 409, MRO, Mary Hansen 14-9H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 176K 7/17; re-fracked 6/17;
FracFocus: re-fracked --
Production, recent (note: 12,000 bbls in 23 days extrapolates to 16,000 bbls in 30 days):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic: not necessary; no neighboring horizontals of interest, except perhaps #22657 but not taken off-line.

A Marathon Re-Frack Reported -- Trotter #16875 -- September 25, 2017

The well:
  • 16875, 351, MRO, Trotter 14-23H, Bailey, t2/08; cum 222K 7/17; re-fracked 6/17;
FracFocus: re-fracked --
Production, recently:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The graphic:

Two neighboring wells are still off-line; we will have to check back in a few months to see how they were affected, if they were affected:
  • 16187, 428, MRO, Connolly 31-14H, Bailey, t9/06; cum 168K 7/1; off-line for past two months;
  • 28111, 1,675, MRO, Susana 14-23TFH, Bailey, t11/14; cum 155K 7/17; off-line for past two months;

OXY To Complete Corpus Christi VLCC Loading Facillity By End Of 2018

From Platts: OXY to complete Corpus Christi VLCC loading facility by end of 2018. Data points:
  • VLCC terminal 
  • current draft of 45 feet at the Corpus Christi Ship Channel
  • VLCC: 1.4 million bbls
  • Ingleside Energy Center facilty
  • at a greater water depth of 66 feet or more: capacity of 2 million bbls
  • the PCCA and the US Army Corps of Engineers will jointly invest $327 million to deepen the port  through an aggressive dredging program; will also expand the width of the channel entrance
  • also, the agency is pursuing a new bridge at a cost of $800 million
  • maximum fully loaded vessel that the channel can now handle is an Aframax (about 750,000 bbls)
Also, see this post from May 29, 2017.

Key points:
  • VLCC
  • 2 million bbls of crude oil (two days of North Dakota crude oil production)
  • Panama Canal Expansion 
Remember this NY Times article?

Active Rigs Up To 58 On Day WTI Goes Over $52 -- September 25, 2017; Campbell Soup Company Distribution Center For The Entire Midwest Is Now Located On North Side Of Ft Worth, TX -- Making Texas Great

Active rigs:

Active Rigs583371192186

Three new permits:
  • Operator: WPX
  • Field: Wolf Bay (Dunn County)
  • Comment: WPX has permits for a 3-well Howling Wolf pad in Wolf Bay,  SESE 21-147-92 
Notes To The Granddaughters

The other night I took our middle granddaughter to a birthday on the northwest side of Ft Worth. The traffic was horrendous at the junction of I-35W and I-820. Now I know why. From the Star-Telegram:
Campbell’s has a manufacturing plant in Paris, Texas with 800 employees. The company shifted its distribution work from Paris to the new Fort Worth location, near I-35W and Loop 820.
But there's more:
On Monday, DHL Supply Chain opened a distribution center in north Fort Worth for its partner, Campbell Soup Company. The 578,000-square-foot facility will handle all of the distribution for Campbell’s soups, Prego pasta sauces, V-8 juices and Pace salsa for the midwest.
That's huge. Simply huge.

On another note, finally, I think I've finally figured out how to "do" swordfish. It was the Yamaki Kappo Shirodashi  -- simply, a dashi base -- that made the difference.

I've tried several times to grill/bake swordfish and it never seems to come out right. But tonight I finally had an excellent swordfish steak.

First, my usual marinade for meat and fish (vegetable oil, soy sauce, Worcestershire sauce, pepper, and a touch of liquid smoke) but for the swordfish steak I added equal amounts of soy sauce and dashi base. The dashi base is strong and it's important not to add too much or one will have an overwhelmingly powerful "fishy" taste.

Then, slow baked in the oven, 40 minutes at 325 degrees. I did not turn it over at the halfway mark -- no problem for the overall taste, but for presentation if one had guests, turning it over at the halfway mark would be recommended, I suppose.

And that was it. Some pepper to the finished swordfish steak and that was it.

Read more here:
From the photo, one can see that it was a small steak but at $17.99 / pound that was all I wanted for this (successful) experiment. The swordfish was from the "fresh" fish display, but I assume it was previously frozen.

Read more here:

Hubbert's Peak Oil Theory And All That Jazz -- September 25, 2017

So much for Hubbert's peak oil theory. See this note posted a bit earlier today.

From Twitter:

And not only that, the second peak is likely to be greater than the first peak. Memo to self: send a note to Art Berman.

Wow, Wow: Not Even Remotely Expected -- WTI Up Over 3% Today -- Now Trading Above $52 -- Who Wudda Thought? -- September 25, 2017


Later, 8:00 p.m. Central Time: see first comment.

Original Post
Did Harold Hamm change/affect the conversation? If so, many of us couldn't be happier.

This week's US crude oil inventory numbers will be very, very interesting. We have had three weeks of increasing crude oil inventory supplies just as the driving season ends in the US. Gasoline supply is at 30+ days; the "historical" norm is closer to 20 days.

In 1984 I started investing. At that time I concentrated my personal interest in three sectors: energy, telecom, and utilities and accumulated shares in companies in these sectors all these decades. I will never see the "cash." Everything is earmarked for the daughters and granddaughters.

How times have changed. I hold shares in only one telecom company; I hold shares in only one utility; but, I have shares in almost all the original energy companies that I started buying in 1984.

I thought of that when I saw this crawler on CNBC just a few minutes ago:

S&P sector leaders
energy telecom utilities

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

I won't be able to find it on the blog, but some time ago I posted the oft-repeated quip that once the price of oil moves (in either direction, it doesn't matter, up or down), it tends to move very, very quickly.


Bakken: Lightest And Sweetest Of All The Crude Oils -- EIA

Re-posted from an earlier post. For the archives.

Permian "Super Basin" Holds Up To $3.3 Trillion In Untapped Oil -- Bloomberg; Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- September 25, 2017

Data points:
  • Permian Basin, Texas and New Mexico: 60 billion to 70 billion bbls of yet-to-be-pumped crude oil
  • enough to supply every refinery in the US for 12 years
  • $3.3 trillion market value at current prices
  • three-year study (so the data is already a bit old)
  • based on data from more than 400,000 wells
  • the estimate may grow as IHS geologists extend their analysis to deeper zones
  • the assessment may boost Pioneer's assertion that the Permian is a 75-billion-bbl field that may rival Saudi Arabi's massive Ghawar field
  • in November, 2016, the USGS estimated that just one layer of the Permian -- the Wolfcamp -- holds 20 billion bbls of crude (recoverable)
OPEC story. Link here. I don't have time to post data points now.

The Energy And Market Page, T+248 - September 25, 2017; Trump Rally Continues -- But Now It's Sector Rotation And Stock-Picking

The Market: for the first six months of the Trump rally, it looks like, in hindsight, one could hardly go wrong in stock picks. Now, the market is flat and stock picking (or sector rotation) seems to be the name of the game. Even with the market flat today, over 100 (currently 110) NYSE listings hit new 52-week highs, including: GM; Norfolk Southern; Oasis Midstream Partners; Phillips 66; Royal Dutch Shell; Statoil; Union Pacific.
  • new lows: only 11 
No good deed goes unpunished: Target announces that it will raise pay to $15/hour for its employees -- and shares of TGT promptly fall -- now down to about $58.55. The "minimum wage" will be seen several years from now. 

Solar sanity. From, Kansans who install solar panels may soon pay higher electric bills.
Kansas electric customers who install solar panels or other kinds of self-generation devices may soon have to pay higher rates for electricity than other residential customers.

In a long-awaited and highly controversial ruling Thursday, the Kansas Corporation Commission said electric utilities may treat customers who generate their own power as a separate class and charge them higher rates in order to make sure they pay their fair share of the cost of maintaining the power grid. The ruling applies only to residential customers using what are called "distributed generation," or DG systems, such as solar panels.

Officials at Westar Energy, which serves Lawrence and most of the state of Kansas, applauded the decision, saying it will ensure fairness in the way rates are levied. They also said they plan to file a new rate case early next year in which they will take advantage of the ruling, putting people with rooftop solar panels and other DG systems in a separate class of residential customers.

Westar spokeswoman Gina Penzig said about 80 percent of the utility's costs are fixed costs related to maintaining power plants and the transmission grid. Only about 20 percent of its costs are determined by the amount of energy used.

A customer's bill, however, is almost the exact opposite, she said, because only 10 to 20 percent of that bill reflects fixed costs, while the other 80 to 90 percent is based on usage.
This, by the way, is no different than California and other states placing "road use" fees on EVs at time of annual registration. If the courts strike down what Kansas is doing, to be consistent, courts will also have to strike down "road use" fees that target one class of users.

The Political Page, T+248 - September 25, 2017


October 17, 2017: 'Monday Night Football' ratings drop to season low as Titans break Colts' streak.
It felt like a little bit of history was being made on Monday Night Football as the Tennessee Titans finally snapped their streak of 11 consecutive losses to the Indianapolis Colts. However, as social media sparked with ESPN not showing the playing of the national anthem, another type of history was also being made: Last night’s primetime broadcast of the Titans’ 36-22 victory stumbled to a season low with a 6.1 in metered market results.
In a season stained by overall ratings declines and political controversy, that NFL Week 6 rating is down 13% from the early numbers of the much tighter October 9 matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. That MNF season low went on to deliver a 3.7 rating among adults 18-49 and a total viewership of 10.3 million. It’s worth noting that the peek of last week’s MNF came at halftime on the Disney-owned cabler when the new Star Wars: The Last Jedi trailer debuted.
Year-to-year, last night’s MNF dipped just over 3% in the MM results from the Arizona Cardinals’ 28-3 demolition of the New York Jets on October 17, 2016. With a rating that matched the Jets score, that demo season low eventually landed with a 3.0 among the 18-49s and 8.4 million viewers, an almost audience bottom.
October 9, 2017, T+261: VP Pence walks out of home NFL game when players kneel.

October 8, 2017: NFL now least liked sport, core fans down 31%.
From the end of August to the end of September, the favorable ratings for the NFL have dropped from 57 percent to 44 percent, and it has the highest unfavorable rating – 40 percent – of any big sport, according to the Winston Group survey provided exclusively to Secrets.
From the end of August to the end of September, the favorable ratings for the NFL have dropped from 57 percent to 44 percent, and it has the highest unfavorable rating – 40 percent – of any big sport.
September 29, 2017: we now have African-American incumbents agreeing with the librarian who says Dr Seuss was a racist and his "Cat In The Hat" books are also racist And to think that both Michelle and Barack Obama recommended Dr Seuss to American adults (yes, adults) and school children.

September 29, 2017: a reader wrote to tell me that the Chicago Police Department has replaced all sirens with the National Anthem to force suspects to quit running and to "take a knee."

September 29, 2017:

September 27, 2017:

September 26, 2017 (an extra):

September 26, 2017: update on "Dallas takes a knee." I didn't see the entire segment until this morning. There's more to the story: The Dallas Cowboys all kneeled/arms linked before the anthem but once the anthem began, they all stood up, arms still linked. Interesting. 

September 25, 2017: for those of us whose "coming-of-age" years were during the Vietnam War, this "black grievance culture" is quite interesting. Even Michelle Obama was part of that culture: I remember her stating that she felt unwelcome in US art museums.

September 25, 2017: disappointing -- NFL more important than veterans from George Washington's revolution to US Civil War to WWI to WWII to Korean War to Vietnam War to Mideast wars ...

September 25, 2017: I find it interesting that only the Drudge Report was able to find this -- has this ever been reported by the television commentators who are always quick to tell us every rule? See comment: reader mentions that this rule, in the 2016 rule book, was removed from the 2017 rule book. Interesting.
The NFL rule book specifically requires both teams appear on the field for the playing of the anthem, standing, remaining quiet, and holding their helmets in their left hands. Failure to do so can result in fines, suspensions, and the loss of draft picks. The rules are found on pages A62-63 of the league’s game operations manual:
The National Anthem must be played prior to every NFL game, and all players must be on the sideline for the National Anthem.
During the National Anthem, players on the field and bench area should stand at attention, face the flag, hold helmets in their left hand, and refrain from talking.
The home team should ensure that the American flag is in good condition. It should be pointed out to players and coaches that we continue to be judged by the public in this area of respect for the flag and our country.
Failure to be on the field by the start of the National Anthem may result in discipline, such as fines, suspensions, and/or the forfeiture of draft choice(s) for violations of the above, including first offenses.
September 25, 2017: the NFL's #1 fan watched no NFL yesterday -- Sunday. He made a conscious decision not to watch. He says he was saddened. Not me. I felt liberated. (See below.)

September 25, 2017: Today, on CNBC it was reported that 19 or 20 NFL owners are now billionaires. Regarding all the outrage with regard to Trump's speech regarding disrespecting the flag no one in the mainstream media seemed to be very upset with this clip:

September 25, 2017: from The National Review, "The NFL House of Cards." By the way, based on television interviews and twitter tweets, Mark Cuban is in favor of disrespecting the flag; Jerry Jones is not. Both Texans. Both billionaires. Both owners of professional sports teams in the same city. And based on the clip above, neither impresses the former president.

September 25, 2017: wow, they simply can't let it go. Now, The American Prospect weighs in with a long, long article on how/why Hillary lost. Will this never end? It just reinforces everyone's view that everyone from Hillary to the mainstream media to late-night talks hosts were in one huge echo chamber.

September 25, 2017: so, with the NFL deciding it's more important than the flag, how did ratings turn out? From
On a day full of criticisms from Donald Trump, political protests, linked arms, players taking a knee or not coming on the field during the National Anthem and renewed pleas for unity from the league NBC and the NFL took a hit last night on Sunday Night Football. ["Unity" within the NFL appears to mean "taking a knee."]

In metered market numbers, the prime-time match-up between the 27-10 winning Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders snared an 11.6/20.

The worst SNF has performed this season so far, that’s an 8% dip from the early numbers of last week’s Atlanta Falcon’s 34-23 win over the Green Bay Packers.
Gaining cheers and boos from fans at FedEx Field in Maryland last night, the third week of SNF for the 2017-2018 season declined 10% from early numbers of the comparable game of last year on September 25, 2016.
September 25, 2017: The "Weiner" sentenced to 21 months in prison. Considered harsh penalty by some; gets "hard time." Could have received as much as 10 years. I assume he will have to register as a "sex offender" but I don't know.

Original Post

Item: David Ross Sorkin (CNBC), who does NOT drive, has apparently just bought his first (?) car.

Disrespecting the flag: this is just one of many problems I have with disrespecting the flag. This will trickle down to high schools. 

Liberated: wow, I've never felt so liberated. For the past several years I've always looked forward to SNF and MNF. It was becoming an obsession to watch the NFL. But no more. I have no desire to watch professional football any more. And last night I felt so incredibly liberated. It was really quite weird how liberated I felt. I actually had more time with Sophia because I did not watch the football game.

WTI Might Open At $51 -- September 25, 2017

WTI: over $51 in early trading. 

Permian: Chevron to invest $4 billion to boost Permian Basin output (also, see Bloomberg article linked below). Data points:
  • next year, $4 billion in CAPEX in the Permian
  • plan to grow production over the next several years to well in excess of 400,000 bopd
  • Chevron expects crude oil from all producers operating in the Permian to rise to 3.8 million bopd in 2020, from 2.4 million bopd at present
Active rigs:

Active Rigs573371192186
RBN Energy: How renewables are displacing natural gas from the west coastt.

Global markets: after Trump was elected, the US markets surged, and the US markets continue to hit new highs. Following Angela Merkel's re-election in Germany, the German stock market is flat to slightly negative. In addition, I think I heard that she took 32% of the votes which will require three parties to come together to "form a government." If that 32% is correct, it sort of puts things into perspective. It sounds like the Green Party will be one of the three parties. My condolences to my German friends.

Must-read. Excellent, excellent Bloomberg article on the Permian. Sounds like the Bakken Boom all over again. One has to read between the lines a bit; I'm not exactly sure what the takeaway of the article is. The headline and tone suggest the Permian is close to a bust, but the activity in the Permian suggests anything but (a bust).
“You would think oil is $100 a barrel the way the real estate market is going,” said Victoria Printz, a Midland-based agent representing properties selling for more than $1 million. The average new-home sales price in the metro area shot up 8.5 percent in the past year, and permits for new construction climbed 76 percent. “This is extraordinary—even for Midland.”
Back In The News

This is pretty cool. I "discovered" White Castle for the first time many, many decades ago I forget the circumstances, but I think it was when I was in college in Sioux Falls, SD, and had gone up to Minneapolis for some reason. I think Ive only visited White Castle that one time.

I've mentioned White Castle in three different posts on the blog. I had long forgotten about White Castle.

It's back. From The Wall Street Journal, White Castle takes a slider-sized bite out of China's fast food market. The chain hopes curiosity about Western food, and Cherry Duck mini-burgers, will attract customers.
Unlike McDonald’s and Yum China, which are publicly traded and franchised, White Castle is a closely held family business and owns all but one of its 385 restaurants across 12 states. Its signature sliders are sold in frozen-food aisles of local grocery stores across the U.S. and represented a quarter of its $720 million in sales last year.