The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): 05/26/23

Friday, May 26, 2023

Week 21: May 22, 2023 -- May 28, 2023

Locator: 44767B.

Top story:

Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

Russian-Ukraine war continues

Top international energy story:

Gazprom profits plunge 40%.

Top national non-energy story:

Debt ceiling: tentative deal reached. SecTreasury Yellen now says "x-date" = June 5, 2023.

"Everybody" says Joe "too old to be president" Biden out-negotiated a Speaker half his age.

SCOTUS rules in favor of ND farmers over Clean Water Act.
Bud-Mulvaney story over a month old and not letting up; Target stores now affected.

Top national energy story:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

Quick connects.

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

A Friday Wrap -- Nothing On The Bakken -- May 26, 2023

Locator: 44766ARCH.
Locator: 44766BRK.

LOCAL NOTES

Pork: a reader sent me a note about pork and pork prices earlier this afternoon. We have three grocers within biking distance: Walmart, Albertson's, and Target. I just checked out two out of tree. I will check out Albertson's later.

Pork:

Target: $5.50 to $6.50 / lb depending on cut, bone-in/bone-out
Walmart: a much, much, much bigger selection. About $4.50 to $5.50 / lb, but some cuts with a "3-handle and some cuts with a "6-handle

The same of pre-wrapped head of iceberg lettuce:

Target: $1.98
Walmart: $1.88

LGBQT:

I didn't look at Target.
Walmart: right up front, a huge display; here in Texas

speaks volumes about "low-information" customers

how does Walmart avoid all these controversies? LOL.

Total Wine and More:

best place to shop in local area for gourmet cheeses; limited, limited selection but priced right
I didn't notice any specials on Bud Lite

NATIONAL NEWS

F + TSLA: brilliant. Link here. Tesla agrees to grant Ford vehicles to Tesla superchargers across the US -- cites President Biden's IRA for making it happen. One step closer to a "universal" EV charging system across the US. Huge deal. But it will require deep pockets for EV manufacturers to come up with deal to partner with Elon Musk.

EVs start-up: dead. Rivian. Nikola. Fed rate increases will kill start-ups. Nikola faces de-listing.

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BRK

TSM, SNOW, Precision CastParts, PARA: Warren.

Paramount cuts dividend.

RH. Link here.

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Other News

EPA: finally we have a Supreme Court with (some) common sense.

Debt ceiling: if a deal is not announced by Monday morning, it tells me that the "x-date" has been moved well to the right, suggesting both sides look to opportunity to advance their own agenda. Perhaps a re-do in August, or September. In other words, politics as usual.

SWKS:

COP: North American E&P Dominance -- US Shale -- Canadian Sands -- May 26, 2023

Locator: 44765COP.

This was from three days ago:

It appears the "US" needs to be "x'ed" out and replaced with "North American."

From oilprice.com, Juliane Geiger:

To some degree I track COP at this site.

For the archives:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Six New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; Five DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 26, 2023

Locator: 44764B.

Active rigs: 35.

WTI: $72.67.

Natural gas: $2.181

Six new permits, #39921 - #39926, inclusive:

Operators: Slawson (4); Oasis (2)
Permits: Big Bend (Mountrail); Todd (Williams)
Comments:

Slawson has permits for two Diamondback and two Switchback wells, NENW 21-151-92;

to be sited 440 FNL and between 1915 FWL and 2065 WL

Oasis has permits for two Peters Road Federal wells, lot 8 section 30-154-101;

to be sited 919 FSL and 275 FWL; and, 886 FSL and 276 FWL; already an active well in that drilling unit; see below.

Well of interest:

23150, 1,089, Oasis, Peters Road Federal 30-29H, Todd, t9/12;um 232K 3/23

Three permits renewed:

Foundation Energy Management: three Gracie State permits in Billings County. Tree Top oil field.

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

38779, 1,247, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H,
38800, 1,016, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1,
38801, 1,329, CLR, Medicine Hole 5-27H,
38978, 3,406, Grayson Mill, Dave Arnson 08-05 2H,
39081, 1,444, Grayson Mill, Dave Arnson 8-5 XW 1H,

Well of interest:

19584, 2,192, Grayson Mill, Dave Arnson 8-5 1-H, Todd, t5/11; cum 340K 3/23; nice jump in production; recent production, 3,735 bbls over 9 days --> 12,450 bbls over 30 days;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2023	9	3735	3733	35647	4574	3394	1137
BAKKEN	2-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	21	654	841	796	1397	1392	5
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	989	1110	1155	2325	2163	162
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1005	990	1246	2247	2207	40
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	982	1207	1250	2340	2149	191
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1311	978	1392	2803	2558	217
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	1292	1412	1322	2075	1462	497

Medicine Hole Wells:

I count sixteen Medicine Hole wells.

Wells of interest:

18679, 1.371, CLR, Medicine Hole 2-27H, Jim Creek, t7/10; cuum 248K 9/22; just coming back on line, 3/23 (four days in March, 2023);

16548, IA/375, CLR, Medicine Hole 14-27H (note the chronologic number), Jim Creek, t6/07; cum 174K 9/22; off line.

The maps:

My Favorite Screenshot From Yesterday -- May 26, 2023

Locator: 44763ECON.

Dubious: an under-used word.

Link here.

See this post.

April Income Steady; Personal Spending Surges In April Compared To March -- May 26, 2023

Locator: 44762ECON.

Several big stories on economy today. This was one of them. Link here.

Previously posted:

Lesson learned (again):

analysts think like CPAs;
analysts need to think like sociologists.

Reminder:

spending is measured in dollars, not in number of widgets sold.

Happy Days Are Here Again — Debt Ceiling Deal Reached; Two-Year “Deal” — Tea Leaves — May 26, 2023

Locator: 44761B.

Sell in May, go away.

So much news today — blogging delayed due to digesting all the news.

Topics of discussion for later today. Maybe we won't get to all of them.

Geography in time of war.
Area under the curve.
My favorite chart.
Fed rate.
Oil shorts.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 35.

WTI: $72.88.

Natural gas: $2.218.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

Monday, May 29, 2023: 50 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 357 for the year
39200, conf, Slawson, Voyager 4-28H,

Sunday, May 28, 2023: 49 for the month; 101 for the quarter, 356 for the year
39192, conf, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-9632-29-16H,
39168, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15HB,

Saturday, May 27, 2023: 47 for the month; 99 for the quarter, 354 for the year
39240, conf, CLR, Skachenko FIU 6-13H,
38878, conf, Whiting, Smith 12-7-2H,

Friday, May 26, 2023: 45 for the month; 97 for the quarter, 352 for the year
39169, conf, WPX, Pennington 16-15-13HZ,
38968, conf, Hess, GO-Aslakson-156-97-2734H-5,

RBN Energy: Chevron's $7.6 billion deal for PDC Energy highlights rich Rockies cash flow.

It’s true, the Permian is — and will likely remain — the center of attention in the U.S. oil and gas industry, not just for its massive and still-growing production volumes but also for the ongoing consolidation among producers in the West Texas/southeastern New Mexico play. But while the Permian has dominated production and M&A activity the past couple of years, Chevron’s recently announced $7.6 billion acquisition of Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin-focused PDC Energy highlights the potential for producers to generate significant production and profits from other major U.S. regions, including the Rocky Mountains. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze Chevron’s latest mega-deal and its impacts on the buyer, seller, and the broader oil and gas industry.