Thursday, June 1, 2017

The Seven Stages Of Grief And Hillary Clinton -- June 1, 2017

With regard to the Hillary Clinton, I discussed the seven stages of grief back on February 17, 2017.

The seven stages of grief:

  • disbelief
  • denial
  • bargaining
  • guilt
  • anger
  • depression
  • acceptance
I honestly thought Hillary Clinton had moved on to "anger" (she never experienced "guilt") but after the recent Hillary interview at the Recode Conference, it's clear that Hillary is either still at the "denial"stage or more likely, she's entered a previously undefined stage from which she will never emerge, namely "delusional."

Paris Climate Accord

I never understood the three legs of the Paris Climate Accord but after listening to President Trump today, I finally understood. The accord was to last 13 years, during which,
  • India would be allowed to double its coal consumption;
  • China would be allowed to build hundreds of new coal-fired plants; and,
  • US would be required to send billions of dollars to South Pacific islands 
.... and Bob Iger is upset that Trump walked? I can't make this stuff up.

Magnolia Petroleum PLC To Participate With Marathon In The Bakken -- June 1, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. I have no interest in Magnolia except as a way to learn more about the Bakken. A reader sent me the link to the press release.

This is an interesting press release by Magnolia Petroleum PLC, riding the coattails of Marathon Oil at this link: Magnolia will participate in six new MRO wells.
All six wells have low exploration risk thanks to being located on or close to prolific producing units.
The new Marathon wells, which include two to be drilled to the Bakken and four to the Three Forks Sanish, will be drilled on the same spacing unit as two highly productive Bakken completions in Dunn County, North Dakota in which Magnolia has an interest in:
  • Lazy DE 24-7H, which as at March 2017 had recovered over 300,000 barrels of oil and 196,944 MCF of gas, is currently producing over 150 BOPD and 120 MCFD
  • Lazy DE 34-7H, which as at March 2017 had recovered 250,000 barrels of oil and 165,563 MCF of gas, is currently producing 135 BOPD and 100 MCFD
The new Three Forks Sanish wells will be the first to be drilled in the unit however other Three Forks Sanish wells in the area have been highly productive, achieving initial production rates of over 1,700 BOPD and 700 MCFD (source North Dakota Oil & Gas Commission).
For example:
  • The Marathon operated Krebs 34-20TFH well, which directly offsets the Lazy DE, tested the Three Forks with an initial production rate of 1,722 BOPD and 748 MCFD and over the last two years has recovered 124,000 barrels of oil - currently producing 85 BOPD and 83 MCFD
The six new wells are in line with management’s strategy to minimise exploration risk - this includes the evaluation of drilling data gained by Magnolia through its participation in wells in which it has very small interest.
And the press release goes on; of interest to newbies; not much new for long-term readers.

From Yahoo!Finance:
Magnolia Petroleum Plc is a holding company, which provides direction and other services to its subsidiaries. The Company's geographical segments include the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA). It is engaged in oil and gas production and exploration in the United States. It is focused on acquiring and developing leases in the United States onshore formations. The Company has approximately 146 wells. Its projects include Bakken/Three Forks Sanish Formation in North Dakota, Woodford/Hunton oil formations in Oklahoma, and Mississippi Lime Play. The Bakken/Three Forks Sanish Interests target the Bakken formation, which comprises approximately three separate reservoirs, and the Three Forks Sanish Formation. The Company holds leases in respect of approximately 67,200 gross mineral acres, giving rights to participate in the drilling of wells located in central Oklahoma. The Company holds leases covering approximately 5,500 net mineral acres in Mississippi Lime. 
What caught my interest was Lazy DE 24-7 (#17797), which was a re-fracked MRO well. See more here

An MRO Re-Frack, #17797 -- June 1, 2017

Update at this post, June 7, 2018.

More regarding this well at this post.

Back in 2011, I put together a list of MRO wells that might be candidates for re-fracking. #17797 was not on the list, but it was re-fracked in 1/15:
  • 17797, 499, MRO, Lazy DE 24-7H, Bailey, t8/09; cum 341K 4/18; re-fracked 1/15:
Production around time well was re-fracked:

Note the production profile immediately after the original frack back in 2009 and compare that to the production after the 2nd frack (above):


Slawson With Six New Permits -- June 1, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs482780189187

Seven (7) new permits:
  • Operators: Slawson (6), Whiting 
  • Fields: Sand Creek (McKenzie), Truax (Williams)
  • Comments: the Whiting/Truax permit is for a wildcat monitoring well (see graphic below); the six Slawson permits are all on Lot 1 1-153-97; all six are Gunslinger Federal permits (see graphic below)

Whiting Monitoring Well

A Hat Trick! Dow Closes At Record, T+132-- June 1, 2017

The Green Fund

Until yesterday's speech by President Trump pulling out of the Paris climate accord I had forgotten about the "Green Fund." I thought the "Green Fund" was a euphemism for some slush fund; then forgot all about it after reading this article just before President Obama left office. Imagine: transferring a half-billion dollars just before leaving office, no Congressional oversight, to some South Korea oligarchy, no accountability. George Washington, who always short of funds to pay his troops, must be rolling in his grave. No matter how little Trump gets accomplished with regard to tax reform, the good news is that had he not won, Hillary would be doing what Obama did -- but much more. From the linked article:
Barack Obama has heeded calls to help secure the future of the historic Paris agreement by transferring a second $500m instalment to the Green Climate Fund, just three days before he leaves office.
The fund was a key aspect of the Paris agreement signed in 2015, which aims to keep global warming “well below” 2C and aspires to keep warming to 1.5C.
Established in 2010, it is financed by wealthy countries and used to assist developing countries with adaptation and mitigation. It was widely seen as a key measure to bring both rich and poor countries to the negotiating table.

Later, 9:33 p.m. Central Time: Dow 30 futures have been moving up all evening; now up 66 points. Futures, of course, mean squat.

Original Post 

A hat trick: all three major indices hit new records: the Dow 30, Nasdaq, and the S & P 500.

US is out of the Paris climate accord.

For background.

5 minutes before the announcement scheduled time of press conference, 2:55 p.m. Central Time:
  • Nasdaq: up 34.41
  • DOW: up 100 points
  • S&P 500: up 13.48
  • WTI: $48.20 
Talking heads stress that there are only two countries in the world that did not "ratify" the Paris agreement.

One wonders how many countries might follow the lead of the US?

For the media, it appears the big question: will Ivanka be present? [Apparently not.]

Now that the talking points are out (2:00 p.m. Central Time) the only question is how he "threads the needle."

The most concerning: Elon Musk says he will leave White House economic councils if Trump does not support the Paris climate agreement.

VP Pence arrives at 2:30 p.m. (Central Time) -- one-half hour later than scheduled.

POTUS arrives at 2:33 p.m. (Central Time): now we see why there was a delay -- the Manila airport terrorist attack earlier today. The press completely missed that. President Trump runs through a long list of "making America great again."

During the announcement (2:41 p.m. Central Time):
  • Nasdaq: up 38.81
  • DOW: up 108 points
  • S&P 500: up 14.17
  • WTI: $48.19
The announcement: "will withdraw from the Paris climate accord" .... huge clapping ... "but begin negotiations to re-enter the Paris accord .... if fair to Americans."

During the announcement (2:55 p.m. Central Time):
  • Nasdaq: up 43.22
  • DOW: up 116.43 points
  • S&P 500: up 16.08
  • WTI: $48.07
Formal remarks ended at almost 3:00 p.m. Central Time on the dot.

Market closing (3:00 p.m. Central Time):
  • Nasdaq: up 48.31
  • DOW: up 133.88 points
  • S&P 500: up 18.13
  • WTI: $47.96 (which would be expected with US exiting the Paris climate accord, everything else being equal)
The Dow had not had a record close since March 1, 2017, until today. Today, all three major indices -- the Dow 30, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 all hit new records.

Forget all the emotional baggage tied up with the Paris climate accord, listen to the reasons Trump left the accord. It had very, very little to do with emotion or the environment.

Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump not in the Rose Garden during the speech. Steve Bannon was there, in the front row.

Stupid Comes in Threes

Elon Musk was first.
Bob Iger was second. (And it may have nothing to do with the climate issue; in a rare slowdown in one of the hottest areas of the entertainment business, attendance declined at 13 of 14 Disney theme parks around the world in 2016 compared with 2015, according to an independent report released on Thursday. Higher prices, intended in part to ease crowding at certain parks, were a major contributor.)
Kathy Griffin.

Additional Comments
Comments From Readers

I wonder how many people realized $100 trillion for .2 degree centigrade in 83 years ... my beef with financial deal was India (allowed to double coal usage) and China was exempt for 13 more years.

I was completely unaware of the "Green Fund" -- essentially a transfer of wealth from the US to 3rd world countries, to whom we already give a huge amount of foreign aid.

France, Italy, and Germany says deal can't be renegotiated. -- report on CNBC. If the #1 emitter of CO2 walks away but offers to renegotiate, and yet FIG says it can't be renegotiated ... the "accord" that would have saved the world .... this tells me all I need to know about how important this "accord" really was. If this "accord" was that important, and if US walked away, it should have been important enough to renegotiate --- to make it better. And fair to everyone.

Saudi Crude Oil Imports Into US -- Most Recent Data -- March, 2017 -- June 1, 2017


Saudi crude oil import into the US. Most recent data just posted.

Off The Net For Awhile -- Unfortunately I'm Going To Miss Some Breaking Stories -- June 1, 2017

See you later this afternoon.

Stories to come back to later, sent in my readers, thank you.

Saudi-Russia: axis of love.

Democrats: getting too rich? NY Times.

Auto sales: pending.
Hostile power? That's what Soros says about US with regard to the EU.

Making America great again: Deere buys German construction equipment maker in $5.2 billion deal.
The deal will be in cash and establish Deere’s “leadership position” in the road building industry and expand the reach of John Deere construction equipment, according to a statement from the company. Wirtgen, a privately held company, has about 8,000 employees and sells products in more than 100 countries.
“Spending on road construction and transportation projects has grown at a faster rate than the overall construction industry and tends to be less cyclical,” Max Guinn, president of Deere’s worldwide construction and forestry division, said in the statement.
Peak oil. Has Permian productivity peaked? Again, consider the source.

Black swan. Has the black swan landed? Energy Intelligence.

Jobs Blowout! Labor Market "Rip-Roaring" -- CNBC; EPA Halts Methane Rule -- June 1, 2017

DAPL: unlikely to reach full capacity (470,000 bopd) until 2018

Weekly oil data, from John Kemp via Twitter:
  • US oil production rose 62K bopd to 9.1 million bopd; that's up 531,000 bopd from the recent low of 8.6 million bopd in Sept 2016
Active rigs:

Active Rigs482780189187

RBN Energy: where refiners are allocating their 2017 CAPEX dollars.

Jobless claims: econoday --
  • forecast: 239K
  • prior: 234K
  • wow, huge miss: first time claims increase 248K, well above the forecast of 239K 
Jobs, ADP payrolls added: huge number, a blowout -- making America great again!
  • forecast: 183K
  • actual: 253K  (revised upward to 255K)
  • unemployment rate headed for 4%
  • labor market: "rip-roaring"
Deal of the month -- Rigzone: Noble Energy exits Marcellus, data points:
  • $1.9 billion
  • two deals
  • will focus on DJ Basin, Delaware Basin, and Eagle Ford 
Making America great again -- Reuters: US EPA halts methane rule for oil and gas industry, data points:
  • 90-day stay, comment period
  • environmental groups say they will block EPA move in court
Making Saudi great again -- Reuters: Saudi Aramco signs deals to build gulf's biggest shipyard, data points:
  • $5.2 billion project
  • joint venture with three companies
  • Saudi's National Shipping Co
  • UAE's engineering firm Lamprell, PLC
  • South Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries 
  • 1.7 square mile shipyard along Saudi's east coast
  • major production to begin in 2019; full capacity by 2022