Tuesday, November 12, 2019

Nominee For 2019 Geico Rock Award: IEA -- November 12, 2019

Nominee for Geico Rock Award, 2019, IEA, for noting that US shale will "squeeze" OPEC influence.

From twitter today:

List of current nominees for the 2019 Geico Rock Award are at this post.

Americans Not Buying EVs Due To Lack Of Choice -- Analyst Says With Straight Face -- November 12, 2019

I would not have bothered posting this story except for one line in the story.

This is the link to the story over at oilprice: "Americans aren't buying into 'the EV hype'."

This was the line that caught my eye:
Sales of electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles in the United States slumped in Q3 much more than the slight decline in the overall passenger car market, due to a lack of choice on the U.S. greener car market.
Due to a lack of choice? My goodness,  how many choices does one need? It took two screenshots to get the entire list:

Thirteen Enerplus Wells Moved to "Producing Or Plugged" Status -- Still On Confidential List -- November 12, 2019

The following Enerplus wells, still confidential, are now on the "plugged or producing" list. In the Bakken, that generally means, "producing." The wells will start coming off the confidential list in December, and the last wells to come off the confidential list will be in March.

These are all Enerplus wells.

The "Greek gods" pad:
  • 34837, Homer,
  • 34839, Apollo,
  • 34940, Zeus,
  • 34841, Athena,
  • 34842, Metis,
  • 34843, Boreas,
The "tortoise" pad:
  • 35062, Leatherback,
  • 35063, Tortoise,
  • 35064, Hawksbill,
  • 35065, Map,
  • 35066, Painted,
  • 35067, Box, 
  • 35068, Terrapin,
This page will not be updated. The wells are tracked elsewhere.

Several Years Ago, Spain Was The Poster Child For Wind Energy Success -- Now, Not So Much -- Cold Weather, Low Wind -- November 12, 2019

From S&P Global Platts: highlights --
  • natural gas demand jumps to 32 million cubic meters on Monday, up 83% from first ten days in November, 2019
  • cold weather, Almaraz I offline (nuclear power plant), low wind are main drivers
  • LNG regasification volumes soar to 67 million cubic meters Monday, highest since late September, 2019
  • French natural gas flows flipped again with Spain importing over 4 million cu m Monday.
  • weather is set to get much colder with temperatures dropping 5 C below the average early week 47
  • quite cold until the end of November and probably rainy
From the "net": typically 5,800 cubic feet of natural gas are equivalent to one boe. 6,000 cubic feet = 170 cubic meters. If so, then: about 200,000 boe / 24 hours in November in Spain.

Spain, natural gas consumption, historical, through 2017 (note trend since 2014): link here. Also, here.

Spain's natural gas demand will rise 2% annually until 2023.

Greta's Chart Of The Day -- November 12, 2019

Link here.

Idle Rambling -- Opportunity For Investors With 20-Year Horizon -- November 12, 2019

I don't know if folks have been paying attention, connecting the dots. First, the linked article below. Then:
  • Saudi Arabia cannot survive on $60 Brent or $55 WTI; 2015 some analysts suggest the kingdom could be broke within two years if price did not move up
  • Saudi Aramco just launched an IPO; needs better return to attract investors
  • significantly declining rig counts worldwide
  • huge migration by the majors from large existing fields; turning these fields over to smaller operators
  • IMO 2020
  • insatiable energy demand in the out-years; e.g., India's $100 billion energy boom;
  • WTI trading above $57 this morning
Link here:
This year will mark the nadir of oil demand growth over the next five years, according to a new report from Fitch Solutions Macro Research (FSMR).
“We forecast demand to grow by around 0.5 percent this year, rising to 0.8 percent in 2020. While this puts our growth forecasts significantly below consensus, it is consistent with the excessive weakness we have seen in monthly data in the year to date,” FSMR analysts stated in the report.
“Demand has faced a perfect storm of global macro headwinds, fueling broad-based weakness from the top down, and a host of idiosyncratic barriers to growth, dragging on demand at the individual market level,” the analysts added.
In the note, FSMR analysts noted that developing markets in Asia had been an “outlier” and continued to post strong demand growth this year.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

And then there is this, the EV chart of the day:

A Closer Look At Newfield's Proposal For Up To Fourteen Wells On Each Of Two Existing 1280-Acre Units -- November 12, 2019

Case 27809, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken:
  • 14 wells on each of two existing 1280-acre units; 6/7-150-98; and, 30/31-151-98, McKenzie; already 6 wells on each of these units; this will make it 20 wells in each of these 1280-acre units;
The graphic (the graphic has been corrected; the original graphic was incorrect; a reader pointed it out -- huge thanks to the reader):

See this post for similar proposal in each of three 1280-acre units in the same area.

Newfield Looking To Place Fourteen Wells On Each Of Three Existing 1280-Acre Units -- November 12, 2019


November 13, 2019: it appears Encana will continue operating Newfield wells in North Dakota under the Newfield name -- at least for the time-being. I don't see any recent Encana permits in North Dakota

Later, 8:28 p.m. CT: regarding the wells in this area, a reader noted --
The  wells on each of these three units were XTO wells until just recently.  
Encana/Newfield is now operating these wells.
There must have been a swap in operating interest for these sections between XTO and Newfield or an outright purchase from XTO.
I haven’t anything in the press regarding a swap or sale.  I think the most likely case is that XTO acquired Newfield minority interests in some other XTO operated units.
Just out of curiosity. Checking NDIC scout tickets of some existing wells in this area:
  • 21706: yes, it is still shown as an XTO well; one would assume that it will soon change to Newfield; checking sundry forms: nothing yet;
  • 22390: ditto; over at NDIC, still reported as an XTO well, but paperwork often lags as much as two months; sundry form: nothing yet;
  • 17832: ditto; over at NDIC, still reported as an XTO well; sundry forms: nothing yet.
Encana/Newfield: from a press release, February 13, 2019:
CALGARY, Alberta, Feb. 13, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Encana Corporation (Encana) (TSX, NYSE: ECA) announced today that it has completed its acquisition of Newfield Exploration Company (Newfield) (NYSE: NFX) in an all-stock transaction.
Original Post
From the October, 2019, NDIC hearing docket cases, case 28017 (again, this is a case, not a permit):
  • Newfield
  • Siverston-Bakken
  • 14 wells on each of three existing 1280-acre units:
    • sections 13/24-150-98
    • sections 16/21-150-97
    • sections 18/19-150-97
The graphic:

See this post for similar proposal for two 1280-acre units in the same area.

A Closer Look At Zavanna East / Southeast Of Williston -- November 12, 2019

Three cases of interest from the October, 2019, NDIC hearing dockets. Again, these are cases, not permits.

Case 28032: Zavanna
  • Stockyard Creek-Bakken
  • to create and establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit
  • sections 26/27/34/35-154-99
  • two horizontal wells along section lines
Case 28033: Zavanna
  • Stony Creek-Bakken
  • to create and establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit 
  • sections 22/26/27/35-155-100
  • eighteen wells on said unit
Case 28034: Zavanna
  • Long Creek-Bakken
  • to create and establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit
  • sections 2/3/10/11-153-99
  • two horizontal wells along section lines
The graphic:

Random Note On The Equinor Beaux Wells -- November 12, 2019

Assuming the paperwork is up-to-date, it is interesting to see that many of the Equinor Beaux wells are still flowing without a pump (as designated by an "F"). Many of them were drilled/completed back in 2013 and they are still not on a pump -- again, assuming the paperwork is current.

Link here.


It's calm here in north Texas (DFW area) so the wind chill can't be all that bad. Our oldest granddaughter says it is currently 22 degrees. I haven't checked but based on comments by folks at Starbucks this morning, Texans prefer "global warming" to "ice age."

Current Events


Speaking of lingo, in the oil sector now, it's all about "advantaged oil," as BP calls it.

This comes from an oilprice article in which it appears "every" major oil company is "fleeing" -- not just leaving, but actually "fleeing" -- the UK:
A trend has emerged on the UK Continental Shelf in recent months—smaller companies acquire assets of international oil majors, especially U.S. majors.

Major U.S. oil and gas companies have divested their UK portfolios in the past year as they focus on the shorter-cycle faster-payback U.S. shale.

Marathon Oil said in February that it would be exiting the UK North Sea as it continues to focus on high-return U.S. shale oil operations.

In April, ConocoPhillips announced the sale of its UK oil and gas business to Chrysaor Holdings for US$2.675 billion.

A similar trend is shaping up in waters neighboring the UK, offshore Norway. Chevron became last year the first supermajor to leave the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

In September this year, the other U.S. oil supermajor, ExxonMobil, signed a deal to sell its non-operated upstream assets in Norway to Vår Energi for US$4.5 billion, as part of a plan to divest US$15 billion worth of non-strategic assets by 2021.

Northern Oil And Gas Announces 3Q19 Results -- November 12, 2019

Press release here. Third quarter production increased 53% over the prior year, and 17% sequentially, averaging 40,786 barrels of oil equivalent (“Boe”) per day.
  • Cash flow from operations, excluding a $32.5 million net decrease from changes in working capital and other items, was $103.5 million for the third quarter, an 11% increase versus the second quarter.
  • Organic drilling and development capital expenditures totaled $80.1 million during the third quarter.
  • Northern closed the VEN Bakken acquisition and also added another 13.3 net wells to production during the third quarter, which helped offset the curtailments, shut-ins and completion delays that negatively impacted production by an estimated 4,500 Boe per day during the quarter.
  • Ground Game success continued in the third quarter, with $9.9 million of acquisition capital and an additional $23.0 million of associated development capital allocated to drive cash flow for shareholder returns in 2020. 
NOG: forecast here; forecast 11 cents; SeekingAlpha;
  • pre-market trading: NOG down 2.4%; down 5 cents
  • actual: 12 cents; beat by a penny
  • revenue: $150 million
  • revenue: missed by $2.70 million
Market: all major indices up in pre-market trading, albeit not by much.
  • AAPL: up slightly
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Flashback from 2013. One of those sweet human interest stories of which we see so few. Link here

October, 2019, NDIC Hearing Dockets

Note: this is simply some housekeeping. It appears I forgot to post the summary of the NDIC October, 2019, hearing dockets. This is "old news." The November dockets are the most recent dockets posted. [Later: my bad -- I did provide the summary earlier; I simply forgot and forgot to link it. The original summary here.]

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

Link here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, October 23, 2019
17 pages

The cases:
  • 27986, NDIC, to review the order granting Hess to use the EN-Person Observation 11-22 well, (#20315) as an injection test, Mountrail County
  • 27987, Hess, Little Knife-Bakken, 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn County
  • 27988, Hess, Little Knife and/or Jim Creek-Bakken, 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn County
  • 27989, Hess, Jim Creek and/or Murphy Creek-Bakken, 2560-acre unit, one well, Dunn County
  • 27990, Petro Harvester, Northeast Foothills and/or Little Butte-Bakken, establish three 1920-acre units; 8 wells on each; 24 wells total, Burke County; sections 19/30/31; sections 20/29/32; and sections 21/28/33 -161-91;
  • 27991, Petro Harvester, Northeast Foothills-Bakken, establish three 1920-acre units; 8 wells on each; Burke County; sections 4/9/16; sections 5/8/17; and, sections 6/7/18-161-91; 24 wells total
  • 27992, Petro Harvester, Foothills-Bakken, establish two 1920-acre units; 8 wells each; sections 23/26/35; and, sections 24/25/36-161-92; Burke County; 16 wells total;
  • 27993, Petro Harvester, Black Slough-Bakken, establish eight 1920-acre units; 8 wells on each; 64 wells total, Burke County
  • 27994, Whiting, setback rules, Tarpon Federal 34-20TFHU, #34627, McKenzie County
  • 27995, BR, Cross, North Fork, and/or Bear Den-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well, McKenzie County
  • 27996, BR, risk penalty legalese
  • 27997, MRO, Spotted Horn and/or Reunion Bay-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, one well; Dunn, Mountrail counties
  • 27998, Petro-Hunt, Stoneview-Bakken, establish four overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each; Divide County
  • 27999, Petro-Hunt, North Tioga-Bakken, establish three overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each; Burke County
  • 28000, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga and/or North Tioga-Bakken; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit one well; Burke County
  • 28001, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken; establish three overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each, Burke County
  • 28002, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, establish five overlapping 2560-acre units, one well each, Mountrail County
  • 28003, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken and/or Powers Lake-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail County
  • 28004, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga and/or White Earth-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail County
  • 28005, risk penalty legalese
  • 28006, Whiting, commingling
  • 28007, Whiting, commingling
  • 28008, Whiting, commingling
  • 28009, Whiting, commingling
  • 28010, Whiting, commingling
  • 28011, Whiting, commingling
  • 28012, Whiting, commingling
  • 28013, Whiting, commingling
  • 28014, Whiting, commingling
  • 28015, Whiting, commingling
  • 28016, Whiting, commingling
  • 28017, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, seven wells on a laydown 1280-acre unit, Moutnrail County
  • 28018, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 4 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; Mountrail County
  • 28019, Whiting, Glass Bluff-Bakken, 4 wells on a 1280-acre unit; McKenzie County
  • 28020, Petro-Hunt, East Tioga-Bakken, 7 wells on each of two standup 1280-acre units, Burke County
  • 28021, Petro-Hunt, North Tioga-Bakken, 7 seven wells on each of three standup 1280-acre units; Burke County
  • 28022, BR, pooling
  • 28023, BR, commingling
  • 28024, BR, commingling
  • 28025, Oasis, pooling
  • 28026, Hess, pooling
  • 28027, Hess, commingling
  • 28028, Hess, commingling
  • 28029, Hess, commingling
  • 28030, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, 12 wells on a 1600-acre unit; McKenzie and Mountrail counties
  • 28031, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken 10 wells on a 1600-acre unit; McKenzie and Mountrail counties
October 24, 2019
Eleven pages

The cases:
  • 28032, Zavanna, Stockyard Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Williams County, section 26/27/34/35-154-99
  • 28033, Zavanna, Stony Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; 18 wells; Williams
  • 28034, Zavanna, Long Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Williams County
  • 28035, XTO, ament field rules for the Big Gulch-Bakken, Dunn County
  • 28036, XTO, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1920-acre units, 8 wells on each; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; one well; Dunn County
  • 28037, XTO, Hofflund, Alkali Creek, and Charlson-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; establish an overlapping 3200-acre unit; establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; unit lines wells; Williams, McKenzie, Mountrail counties
  • 28038, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; two wells; Dunn County
  • 28039, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken, setback rules, Dunn County
  • 28040, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28041, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28042, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28043, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28044, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28045, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28046, CLR, cost-recovery order
  • 28047, RimRock, Moccasin Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; alternative proposal, same outcome; Dunn County
  • 28048, RimRock, Heart Butte-Bakken, establish an overlapping 1920-acre unit; two wells; Dunn County
  • 28049, RimRock, equipment location
  • 28050, Enerpluse, flaring,
  • 28051, Enerplus, flaring
  • 28052, Newfield, Sand Creek-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; McKenzie County
  • 28053, risk penalty legalese
  • 28054, CLR, pooling
  • 28055, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken; 27 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 2/3/10/11-153-94; McKenzie and Mountrail counties
  • 28056, CLR, Cedar Coulee-Bakken; 22 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 20/29/32-147-96 and section 5-146-96; Dunn County
  • 28057, CLR, commingling
  • 28058, Zavanna, pooling
  • 28059, Zavanna, pooling
  • 28060, Zavanna, pooling
  • 28061, XTO, pooling
  • 28062, XTO, pooling
  • 28063, XTO, pooling
  • 28064, XTO, pooling
  • 28065, XTO, pooling
  • 28066, XTO, pooling
  • 28067, XTO, pooling
  • 28068, XTO, pooling
  • 28069, RimRock, pooling
  • 28070, Kraken, commingling
  • 28071, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken, 14 wells on each of three existing 1280-acre units, total 42 wells; McKenzie County
  • 28072, SWD
  • 28073, PetroShale, Antelope-Sanish; four wells on an existing 320-acre standup, W/2 of section 29-152-94; McKenzie County

Waiting For Eleven Wells To Be Reported -- November 12, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5566523864

Five new permits:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has permits for a 5-well pad in section 9-145-94, Killdeer oil field: Bertsch/Vanessa/Herrbolt/Loretta/Kenyon
Petro-Hunt puts nine wells on "temporarily abandoned" list:
  • Divide County
    • section 20-163-99
    • section 28-163-99
    • section 9-163-100
  • Steen/Gracious God/Donna Buddy; Bella/William/Ross/Rodney/Eagle/Smokey
Wells coming off the confidential list today, yesterday, over the weekend -- (data not yet scanned in over at the NDIC website -- 6:01 p.m. November 12, 2019)

Tuesday, November 12, 2019: 39 for the month; 134 for the quarter:
  • 36296, 1,414, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-3H, South Tobacco Garden, nice production; 21K first report;
  • 36035, SI/NC, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-14-1HU, South Fork, no production data,
  • 36034, SI/NC, RimRock, Skunk Creek 12-10-11-16H3U, South Fork, no production data,
  • 30992,SI/NC, BR, Gudmunson 7-1-26MBH, Elidah, no production data,
  • 30113, 920, Oasis, Jensen 5501 44-7 7B, Missouri Ridge, nice production, 26K, high month;
Monday, November 11, 2019: 34 for the month; 129 for the quarter:
  • 36300, SI/NC, Newfield, Schneiderman 15-99-29-32-6H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data,  
  • 33965, 2,746, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Tree, nice production; 25K first full month;
  • 30993, SI/NC, BR, Gudmunson 6-1-26TFH, Elidah, no production data,
Sunday, November 10, 2019: 31 for the month; 126 for the quarter:
  • 35438, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-6, Dollar Joe, no production data,
Saturday, November 9, 2019: 30 for the month; 125 for the quarter:
  • 36299, SI/NC, Newfield, Schneiderman 150-99-29-32-6H, South Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 35439, SI/NC, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield156-97-1918H-7, Dollar Joe, no production data;
RBN Energy: crude gathering systems in the Denver-Julesburg Basin.
Crude oil production in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin has nearly doubled since January 2016 — only the Permian has outpaced the D-J’s growth rate over the same period — and production there now averages about 640 Mb/d. The D-J has just about everything producers want, including an unusually intense concentration of hydrocarbons within four geologic layers, or “benches,” only a few thousand feet below the surface, low per-well drilling costs, and direct pipeline access to the crude hub in Cushing, OK. Production growth in the D-J has spurred a rapid build-out of crude gathering systems and other infrastructure, especially in Colorado’s Weld County, the epicenter of D-J activity, which is located a short drive northeast of Denver. Today, we begin a series on existing and planned pipeline networks to move D-J crude from the lease to regional hubs and takeaway pipes.