Nvidia -- P/E -- Update -- September 19, 2024

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Link here.

Apple In Talks With Micron -- September 19, 2024

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When it comes to AI, there are two camps:

• one camp: it's all hype / it's all hyped;
• the second camp: it's the real deal.

I'm in the second camp.

Earlier I wrote this about the magnificent seven: 

This is so unlike any other sector in which to invest:

• relative monopolies 
• unique strengths 
• the average investor can actually "keep track" of a handful of companies 
• behemoths 
• market values are incredible 
• cash hordes for some, also incredible
• margins, amazing 
• partnerships 
• a different kind of competition because they each depend on the other in some way, shape or form
• with some exceptions, their only raw material -- silica and brain power

Because there is such a finite number in the "magnificent seven" -- literally "seven" but metaphorically perhaps a few more -- but still quite finite -- those companies have only a few choices with whom to deal / partner / etc.

Here's what I mean.

From Beth today: 

Be sure to scroll through the thread.

I'm sure readers are smart enough to connect the dots.

On another note, along the same line.

I used to enjoy the charts that Liz Sonders regularly posts on twitter. But no longer. The charts do not provide actionable information and there is generally no real analysis. The information is nice to have / nice to know for any number of reasons, but I can't recall even once when one of her charts provided me actionable information. Just saying. Beth, on the other hand.....

I have a position in Micron -- long story but up until today I've been relatively unhappy with Micron and have considered selling that position and reinvesting in another tech company, but with this information, I will now hold Micron for a bit longer and watch what develops. 

Ticker MU:

US Consumer -- The US Is The Global Engine Of Growth -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48324ECONOMY. 

US consumer, link here:

The meme: if the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, the US economy must be in worse shape than we're being told.

I simply don't agree with that; I don't see that. The key word: "recalibration." 

Regardless.

Let's look at it this way. Binary.

The economy is in worse shape than they are telling us. Okay. The Fed did the right thing, cutting by 50 basis points.

The economy is doing much better than folks realize. The Goldilocks economy. Okay. The Fed sees the "need" / "opportunity" to "recalibrate" / "normalize" its effect on the economy. 

In either case, by reducing rates, the Fed's actions will "goose" the economy.

I go back to this post:

Easy money: the question is now being raised -- should "easy money" be the norm? The economy took off (excelled) when the US had twelve years of easy money; April, 2008 -- September, 2022. Actually 14 years. A generation of Americans have only known "easy money." It becomes an even more fascinating question when we look at the real reason for inflation. Was Paul Krugman right all along? Even Steve Liesman is willing to play along, entertaining that thought.

Or was it simply about easily accessible, easily affordable, dispatchable energy?

Let's not overthink this.

The EU's crude oil production:

At the end of the day, it's still a global economy. The economy of the US is head and shoulders ahead of whatever else is out there. The UK, as an example, is in great trouble, and despite that, England's central bank did not lower rates today. Meanwhile, the US in great shape, and the Fed cuts by a surprising 50 basis points. On CNBC just a few minutes ago (do folks remember Meredith Whitney from decades ago)?

Carl Q: should the Fed have cut the rate by 50 basis points?

Meredith Whitney: absolutely. I was surprised but absolutely the Fed should have cut rates by 50 basis points, and it needs to get to a 100-bp cut as soon as possible, certainly by the end of the year.

It is interesting that every talking head / analyst / economist that I've heard speak in the past eighteen hours agrees that the 50-bp cut was the right thing to do. Even those who expected a 25-bp cut enthusiastically support the 50-bp cut. I have never paid much attention (in the past) to those who are now arguing that the Fed should have left rates alone, or even, perhaps, even have raised them. 

The above charts are simply amazing.

One more:

**********************************

CNBC

The biggest problem I have with CNBC today is all the time spent "arguing" about the pros and cons of the 50-basis point cut. Who cares. They did it. The Fed cut the "rate" by 50 basis points.

The question is not whether it was the right thing to do, but rather, "now what?" What do investors do now that the Fed has cut rates by 50 basis points.

"Sports radio" / "sports television" revolves almost entirely around the Dallas Cowboys and more specifically Jerry Jones and Dak Prescott.

That's what CNBC has turned into: the producers / anchors has turned the conversation into following the Fed 24/7. Wow. 

By the way, "zombie companies" are now getting a lot of attention. The most obvious "zombie companies": shipping easy-to-prepare food meals for humans and for their pets. Whatever happened to Blue Apron? Years ago, I occasionally saw Blue Apron boxes delivered to our 700-unit complex. Now, I haven't seen a Blue Apron box in years. One renter is buying Chewy on a regular basis, but that's about it now. I know I'm missing many of the deliveries but .... 

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Carl Rowan

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The Book Page

This book is recently in the news again. Oh, that's right. Top 100 books of the 21st century. Here was my take on the book back in 2008.

**********************************
The Book Page
What a Bunch of Crap

Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, Yuval Noah Harari, c. 2015. First published in Hebrew in Israel in 2011. A New York Times bestseller. Recommended by everyone, including Bill Gates and Barack Obama. Author: a PhD in history from the University of Oxford.

A few weeks ago our oldest granddaughter was telling me how one of her teachers was talking about the "agricultural revolution" as a fantasy and that, in fact, the "agricultural revolution" left humankind more worse-off than what they had as foragers and hunter-gatherers. I thought the instructor was an idiot, but I didn't say anything negative. I continued to listen to Arianna's theses and arguments.

And then here it, almost verbatim, from Sapiens by Harari, pp. 78+, exactly what Arianna was saying. I am not convinced. But I am thrilled that this suggests to me that her instructor is well-read, and, in fact, has probably read this book and this is where he/she is getting some of his/her ideas.

It also means this is a great resource book for Arianna for this particular class and this particular author. Despite the fact that the book is pathetic; a bunch of crap. This is the author's theme, found on page 415 in the afterword:

Unfortunately, the Sapiens regime on earth has so far produced little that we can be proud of. We have mastered our surroundings, increased food production, built cities, established empires and created far-flung trade networks. But did we decrease the amount of suffering in the world? Time and again, massive increases in human power did not necessarily improve the well-being of individual Sapiens, and usually caused immense misery to other animals.

It's a great resource book as long as Arianna is capable of critical thinking.

Again, from the author: Unfortunately, the Sapiens regime on earth has so far produced little that we can be proud of.

I had my wife read that passage; she agreed. I must be missing something. 

Let's see:

• Carnegie libraries across the US
• vaccines eradicated smallpox, tetanus, and polio
• art by Monet
• Tesla
• the Bible, the Odyssey, the Iliad, the Aenied, Shakespeare
• the iPhone 
• martinis 
• the Kentucky Derby
• Olga Kern and the Santa Fe Orchestra
• life expectancy and quality of life
• Neil Armstrong 
• the Rolls Royce
• We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness
• cowboy boots and cowboy hats
• equal rights for women

This shows me the lack of critical analysis by Barack Obama and Bill Gates and others who recommended this book. Of if I'm missing something, why they would recommend this?  I guess if you are an elitist ...

... by the way, I wonder whether the author would say the #1 cause of death worldwide is one of the good or bad things related to Sapiens?

Cramer's First Hour, Part 5 -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48323CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

My favorite chart.

Link here.

A reminder, one week ago:

Anticipating today's number.

**************************

Today

Personal investing: won't buy a thing today. Fully invested. And thank goodness.

Market open: 

S&P 500: new all-time high; Dow may also be at an all-time high.

Gasoline: day-after-day, the price of gasoline dropping -- putting leave more money in America's pockets. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 4 -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48323CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Hard landing: predicted by "everyone" a year ago. Now? Not so much. 

Fair value vs futures price: link link.

S&P 500 vs Dow: when I first started trading decades ago, a rule of thumb was a ten-to-one ratio, Dow:S&P 500. With the S&P 500 futures up 90 points, the Dow futures "should be" up 900 points. Oof-da. 

Bottom line: the reason that the US is where it is -- pumping oil. The most important ingredient in lowering costs. The US is now producing an astounding 13 million bopd. Both sides in agreement. Turned back "green energy" and didn't ban fracking. Don't overthink this: see this post.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 2 -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48321CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Tesla: on track for best quarter ever in China. 3Q24. Link here.

Frothy: that will be the next word we hear today. Link here.

Let's look at the futures -- it's quite amazing, to say the least:

• AAPL: up $3.61 / 1.64%.
• AVGO: up $5.66 / 3.51%. Stock is ex-dividend today.
• QCOM: up $4.80 / 2.85%.
• AMGN: up $3.88 / 1.17%.
• AMD: up $5.o06 / 3.41%.
• CVX: up $1.82 / 1.26%.
• XOM: up $1.49 / 1.30%.
• FANG: up $3.38 / 1.90%.
  
• SNOW: up $2.72 / 2.46%
• V: up $3.52 / 1.22%.
• BRK-B: up $4.20 / 0.92%.
  
• CAT: up $6.58 / 1.85%.

Stocks to dominate for the next decade: link here.

• AMZN, MSFT, META, V, TSM, TSLA
• NVDA, COST, SNOW, CRWD, PLTR, NVO

SNOW: they'll become the central hub for storing, processing, and analyzing vast data sets for enterprises. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Cramer's First Hour, Part 3 -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48322CRAMER. 

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Cecilia Payne. Link here. Absolutely fascinating. May require a stand-alone post. I knew the story but I did not know the woman that deserves credit. 

Darden Restaurants: up 10.6% in pre-market trading! Whoo-hoo!

There are two camps when it comes to AI:

• it's all hype / hyped;
• it's the real deal
• I'm in the second camp.

From Beth, link here. This is $1 trillion. Not $1 billion. $1 trillion by 2029 and then another 20% -- to $1.2 trillion in 2030 -- on year later. Magnificent 7.

Don't overthink this.

Fox News: never fails to ... link here.  As I mentioned sometime ago: Fox News on line is the 21st century's "Sunday comics."

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

Cecilia Payne -- From Facebook -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48323CECILIA. 

Link here.

Since her death in 1979, the woman who discovered what the universe is made of has not so much as received a memorial plaque. Her newspaper obituaries do not mention her greatest discovery. […] 

Every high school student knows that Isaac Newton discovered gravity, that Charles Darwin discovered evolution, and that Albert Einstein discovered the relativity of time. 

But when it comes to the compostion of our universe, the textbooks simply say that the most abundant atom in the universe is hydrogen. And no one ever wonders how we know.”

—

Jeremy Knowles, discusses the complete lack of recognition Cecilia Payne gets, even today, for her revolutionary discovery. (via alliterate) 

OH WAIT LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT CECILIA PAYNE. 

Cecilia Payne’s mother refusd to spend money on her college education, so she won a scholarship to Cambridge. 

Cecilia Payne completed her studies, but Cambridge wouldn’t give her a degree because at that time there was not much exposure for women, so she said to heck with that and moved to the United States to work at Harvard. 

Cecilia Payne was the first person ever to earn a Ph.D. in astronomy from Radcliffe College, with what Otto Strauve called “the most brilliant Ph.D. thesis ever written in astronomy.” 

Not only did Cecilia Payne discover what the universe is made of, she also discovered what the sun is made of (Henry Norris Russell, a fellow astronomr, is usually given credit for discovering that the sun’s composition is different from the Earth’s, but he came to his conclusions four years later than Payne—after telling her not to publish). 

Cecilia Payne is the reason we know basically anything about variable stars (stars whose brightness as seen from earth fluctuates). Literally every other study on variable stars is based on her work. 

Cecilia Payne was the first woman to be promoted to full professor from within Harvard, and is often credited with breaking the glass ceiling for women in the Harvard science department and in astronomy, as well as inspiring entire generatons of women to take up science.

Cecilia Payne is awesome and everyone should know her.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 1 -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48320CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.  

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: best news he's heard from the Fed in years. Recalibration! Wow! Siegel expects a cut at every meeting -- every meeting -- between now and next June. Six meetings. Link here. "Recalibrate" is JPow's code word for "less restrictive," which means further cuts this year.

AVGO: up 6% in pre-market trading.

Apple iPhone 16 sales: I don't know if folks caught what I said the other day about Apple iPhone 16 sales. Wow. Now this:

Barron's take on the Fed's rate cut: link here.

In describing its decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by a half of a percentage point on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the term “recalibrate.” It’s a less dramatic pivot. Powell characterized it as a reaction to the different economic landscape that exists in the U.S. today.

"Recalibrate": I don't think anyone knows what this means, except perhaps Jay Powell. But we're going to hear this word all day today on CNBC. JPow used the word "recalibrate" nine times in his short speech.

Overton Window: link here. Must-read applemust.com article on the "flight of the Apple iphones. Link here. And direct to the article.

Free money: back ot that discussion.

SALT cap needs to be removed! MAGA has flip-flopped on this.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. 

The Day After The Fed Cut -- September 19, 2024

Locator: 48319B.

Strike: East Coast, Gulf Coast ports. Deadline September 30, 2024.

Poll: Harris leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan. In Pennsylvania, it's not even close right now -- Harris, 50%; Trump: 46%. 

JD Vance admitting that he makes up stories and it's the media's responsibility to do the fact-checking doesn't appear to be a winning strategy. This is JD Vance's version of exploding pagers. In fact, ABC did the fact-checking during the debate and MAGA got upset. LOL. 

Cruz: could lose in Texas.  

Russell 2000 futures: the clear winner after the Fed cut yesterday.

***************************

Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.52. Whoo-hoo!

Friday, September 20, 2024: 42 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 494 for the year
40502, conf, CLR, Kennedy 9-31HSL,
39933, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-3, Alger,
23388, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 3TFH, Banks,
23387, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks,
23386, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks,

Thursday, September 19, 2024: 37 for the month; 165 for the quarter, 489 for the year
None.

Production:

• 39933, conf, Hess, RS-Juma-156-92-1131H-3, Alger:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2024	13903	7508
6-2024	14496	7391
5-2024	13513	6874
4-2024	23375	13382
3-2024	15131	9729

• 23387, conf, Grayson Mill, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks: 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2024	13851	62767
6-2024	16656	52532
5-2024	23969	51926
4-2024	5719	5971

RBN Energy: is the rangebound summer gas market heading for a breakout?

The summer of 2024 proved somewhat melancholy for natural gas bulls, but also for bears, as front-month futures have consistently sported a $2 handle on the vast majority of trading days. What happened to the dire predictions of oversupply heard this past winter? And what about the bullish swing that took over the market in early June? Developments in production and weather have ameliorated both concerns but new issues may cause volatility to return in the near future. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll detail what happened during this summer’s gas market and what current trends portend for the fall and winter.