Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Defintion Of Insanity: Doing The Same Thing Over And Over, Expecting A Different Result -- May 5, 2020

The fat lady has not yet sung, so we certainly don't know how this will turn out but two major operators in the Permian say they will likely re-start operations if WTI gets back to $30.

MbS: "Say what?"

Link here.

Idle Rambling As I Get Back Into Blogging -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- May 5, 2020

It's 10:28 p.m. CT, north Texas, May 5, 2020.

I'm listening to Alexa's mix of .... I'm blocking on his name ... Milsap ... that's it, Randy ... no, Ronnie Milsap.

This was the first song, put me in a mellow mood:

I Wouldn't Have Missed It For The World, Ronnie Milsap

A gazillion things happened today -- unrelated to the blog, unrelated to energy, unrelated to investing ---
  • took Sophia to TutorTime; gifts for teachers;
  • leisurely breakfast on patio;
  • two hours at the local Lego bricks and mini-figures store (10:30 to 12:30); they just re-opened; 
  • back home; Greek lunch with lamb;
  • sorted through Lego haul; getting ready to pick up Sophia;
  • bicycling;
  • read: Wisdom of the Birds
  • grocery shopping; French baguette for dinner tonight;
  • scanned (literally scanned) the daily mail;
  • picked up Sophia from Tutor Time; after-school snack; then to her friend's house;
  • to seafood restaurant to pick up two pounds of crawfish ordered earlier in the day;
  • dinner on patio with daughter/son-in-law; three granddaughters;
  • corn-on-the-cob; crawfish, fresh French baguette; for dinner
  • soap bubbles with Sophia; 
  • book reading with Sophia: Richard Scarry and Eric Carle;  
  • outside to look at the stars and constellations with Sophia using the iPhone constellation app;
  • throw away the crawfish shells;
Literally not enough time in the day to do everything I wanted to do.

Incredibly beautiful evening. A few biting insects but citronella candles and DEET spray took care of that. 

And then home about 9:30 p.m.

A Woman's Love, Ronnie Milsap & Willie Nelson

Spanish guitar?

And then home about 9:30.

First thing I do is check my e-mail. I haven't been on the computer since this morning except to post the daily activity report around 5:00 p.m. I check the comments to the blog first: I'm always worried I've made a huge mistake in something I posted. 

Then the news. I quickly run through the headlines over at Fox News. We've talked about their format before: a banner story and four stories below the fold. The fourth story (or the fifth, if one includes the banner story) is always fluff; I never read it.

Two stories in the past eight hours jumped out at me.

Think about this.

Two major operators in the Permian said they would likely re-start operations if WTI gets back to $30. Think about that. Oil companies are not in the business to lose money. We might come back to this.

The other story: California is now borrowing money from the federal government to pay for unemployment benefits. Think about that.

The RBG story jumped out at me -- 87 years old; hospitalized. But as soon as I saw the reason for the hospitalization, I moved on. It's a non-story until it becomes a story. Because she's RBG it's a headline story; if it involved anyone else it would have been click bait. As it was, it was sort of click bait. Not sure how to classify it. It had to be reported but until it becomes a story, it's a non-story.

On April 20, 2020, I posted that I thought we were reaching a "tipping point." That was fifteen days ago, or thereabouts. I might have been a week early.

I see the COVID-19 task force has been disbanded. I still think the entire COVID-19 task force was badly mishandled. I tuned out sometime during the first week. I assume the daily sitcom was canceled due to plummeting Nielsen ratings.

And so it goes. Into the still of the night I go.

Lost In The Fifties Tonight, Ronnie Milsap

Sweden Picked The Wrong Strategy. Period. Dot. -- May 5, 2020


Mas 23, 2020: update -- link: country data.
Yesterday: new deaths:
  • #10 Sweden: 67
  • #87 Denmark: 0
  • #90 Finland: 0
  • #93 Norway: 0 
Deaths per million population:
  • #8: Sweden at 396
  • #12 USA at 298
  • #25 Germany at 100
  • #26 Denmark at 97
  • #34 Finland at 55
  • World at 44
  • #41 Norway at 43

May 16, 2020: update -- In fact, Sweden did not "win the contest," by criteria set by the mainstream press:

Original Post
Yesterday I posted this:
Sweden and Wuhan flu: Sweden is getting a lot of positive press about how that country handled the coronavirus. When one actually sees the data, one gets another impression. If one has time to read only one article on Wuhan flu today, this would be the article
This is the meme: Sweden won the argument.

Here is the graphic:

The CDC default spreadsheet is ranked by total number of cases, which is incredibly irrelevant, immaterial, and illogical. But for the record, here is the ranking provided by the CDC based on total number of cases:
#1: USA
#2: Spain
#3: Italy
#4: UK
#11: China
#14: Belgium
#22: Sweden
#39: Denmark
#44: Norway
#52: Finland
Now, rank them on number of total deaths per capita:
#1: San Marino
#2: Belgium
#3: Andorra
#4: Spain
#10: Sweden (283 deaths per one million population)
#14: USA
#23: Denmark (87 deaths per one million population)
#32: Finland (44 deaths per one million population)
#38: Norway (40 deaths per one million population)
Total deaths:
Sweden: 2,854
Denmark: 503
Finland: 246
Norway: 215
  • 13x the number of total deaths
  • 7x the number of total deaths/capita
By any measure, Sweden did much, much worse than its Scandinavian neighbors, and it wasn't even close. 

OPEC Basket Still Below $20 -- WTI At $24 -- ND Rig Count At 24; Seventeen Permits Renewed -- May 5, 2020

API weekly inventory:
  • consensus: 8.125 million bbls (note the false precision)
  • actual: 8.440 million bbls
$30-WTI: two major Permian operators say they could re-start operations if WTI gets back to $30; Parsley, Diamondback; 

OPEC Basket, link here: $18.36.

Back to the Bakken

NDIC daily activity report: again, a lot of formatting errors; also --
  • a typographical error? "Rimrock Oil & Gas Williston LLV (sic),
  • generally new permits that show up on the daily activity report, are also available at the NDIC scout ticket site; the five new permits posted today do not yet show up at that site; 
Active rigs:
Active Rigs2464625027

Five new permits, #37554 - #37558, inclusive --
  • Operators: CLR (4); Oasis (1)
  • Field: Fancy Buttes (McKenzie); Dimmick Lake (McKenzie); Enget Lake (Mountrail)
  • Comments
    • CLR has permits for a 4-well Norway pad in Lot 4, section 5-150-96, Dimmick Lake/Fancy Buttes; all 270' FNL and about 950' FWL,
    • Oasis has a permit for a Grad well in SENE 23-158-93, Enget Lake, 2022' FNL 270' FEL;
Seventeen permits renewed:
  • BR (13): seven Abercrombie permits; one Aberlid permit; two Shafer permits; two Sandie permits; and one Ole permit, all in McKenzie County;
  • EOG (2): two Clarks Creek permits, both in McKenzie County;
  • Rimrock (2): two Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County;

Notes From All Over, Mid-Afternoon Edition -- May 5, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The Science Page

One of the most fascinating things I ever did in high school was dissect a frog. It turns out one can order an entire frog-dissecting kit over at Amazon.com for less than $15/set. I'm going to ask Sophia if she would be interested.

Meanwhile, earlier I wrote that we would be doing this scientific experiment, to look at global warming and rising seas:
  • put a bunch of ice cubes in a glass
  • fill the glass with water to the brim
  • come back in an hour and see if the water spilled over the brim of the glass
  • hint: water expands as it freezes; as the ice cube melts, the volume of water in the glass should actually decrease  
I got the idea after reading this article at Watts Up With That: first results from NASA's ICESat-2 mission map sixteen years of melting ice sheets. It's a great read, but be sure to read the social media comments to put the article in perspective.

It's not a particularly long article. Quite technical in nature.

The article is eighteen short paragraphs, but it is not until you get to the sixteenth paragraph that you read this (it is alluded to in an earlier paragraph):
Ice that melts from ice shelves doesn’t raise sea levels, since it’s already floating – just like an ice cube in a full cup of water doesn’t overflow the glass. But the ice shelves do provide stability for the glaciers and ice sheets behind them.
Hmmm. Watts Up With That?

Other observations:
  • sixteen years of satellite data vs eons of life on earth; plate tectonics; glaciation, etc. Sixteen years sounds kind of puny
  • sea rise of 14 millimeters noted over sixteen years; since 2003; about a millimeter rise per year
  • we have many numerators in the article but no denominators; examples of numerators:
    • Greenland lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice per year;
    • Antarctica lost an average of 118 gigatons of ice per year;
    • sea rise of 14 millimeters over sixteen years; 
    • one gigaton of ice is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools;
    • iceberg calving: two-thirds from Greenland; one-third from Antarctica;
    • the two largest Greenland glaciers have lost 14 to 20 feet of elevation per year
And then without much discussion:
In Antarctica, the dense tracks of ICESat-2 measurements showed that the ice sheet is getting thicker in parts of the continent’s interior, likely as a result of increased snowfall, Smith said. But the loss of ice from the continent’s margins, especially in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, far outweighs any gains in the interior. In those places, the ocean is also likely to blame.
Number of Olympic-sized swimming pools in the earth's oceans:
  • 1.35 billion cubic kilometers
  • one cubic kilometer of water = 2.64 x 10^11 gallons
  • 1.35 billion cubic kilometers = 1.35 x 10^9 x 2.64 10^11  = 3.56 x 10^20 gallons of water (volume of ocean)
  • volume of Olympic-size swimming pool: 660,000 gallons or 6.6 x 10^5
  • dividing ocean volume by pool volume: 3.56 x 10^20 / 6.6 x 10^5 = 0.5 x 10^15 = 5 x 10^14
  • the ocean is equivalent to 5 x 10^14 Olympic-size swimming pools, or 500,000,000,000,000 pools
  • 4 x 10^5 / 5 x 10^14 = 0.0000000008 = 0.00000008%
Note: I often make simple arithmetic errors. If this important to you, do your own math.

US Navy Blue Angels Flyover -- DFW Area -- Including A "360" Over Dallas -- May 5, 2020


The Book Page

This week's book: The Wisdom of Birds: An Illustrated History of Ornithology, Tim Birkhead, c. 2008.

It seemed a natural choice after Jane Kim's Wall of Birds yesterday.

  • a 368-page book on the ornithology work of John Ray and his "student" Francis Willughby.
  • notes: twenty pages
  • bibliography: sixteen pages
  • glossary: five pages
  • picture credits: four pages
  • index: nineteen pages
More to follow.

The Science Page

From a reader: this link and here.

Hundreds of towering hydrothermal chimneys discovered on seafloor off Washington state. An autonomous diving robot captured the vents (and events) in unprecedented detail.

From the article:
Research on the Endeavor vents began in the 1980s, and scientists had previously identified 47 chimneys in five major vent fields. But recent expeditions, using an autonomous underwater vehicle operated by the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) revealed more than 500 chimneys in a zone about 9 miles long and 1 mile wide.
I finally understood these hydrothermal vents (chimneys) and their likely importance in the evolution of life in The Vital Question: Energy, Evolution, and the Origins of Complex Life, Nick Lane, c. 2015.

Arctic Blast To Hit The Northeast By Mother's Day -- May 5, 2020

Already burned out and it's only 9:28 a.m. CT!

I will be off the net for awhile. I'm already overwhelmed with all the news; simply can't keep up.

I need to take a break.

I think this was the story that brought everything to a halt, LOL: northeast to see several rounds of snow -- remember, this is May, the month when we should be seeing May flowers following April showers -- as an(other) Arctic blast pushes in. From a news source I can't link on the blog:
A bitter Arctic blast will settle into the Northeast in time for Mother's Day weekend with a possibility of snow, just as the Southwest faces record-heat.

After summer-like warmth over the weekend, cooler air already is spreading from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. But even colder air is on the way, late this week into the weekend.

"The bigger story with this is we're gonna see several rounds of snow for parts of the interior Northeast. So this first batch moves in on Thursday, Friday, and then the second one, the more potent system, moves in on Mother's Day weekend."
The record heat in the southwest is going to push a lot of southern Californians to the beach. I assume that will be the big weekend story. 

I'm going to sit on the patio, have a third cup of coffee (decaf) and watch the robins. Read a book. But before we go, how is TSLA doing? Having another great day.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Fast And Furious -- Things Are Moving Way Too Fast -- May 5, 2020

Date reminder:
  • today: Teachers' Day and National Cartoonists Day;
  • tomorrow: National Nurses Day
  • all week: National Nurses Week, May 6 - May 12, the birthday of Florence Nightingale
  • Sunday: Mother's Day
First things first: wow, I can't wait to get to the Swedish Wuhan flu stories but that will have to wait. But it certainly looks like the NYT editorial board and MSNBC's Brian Wilson are leading the parade on this one. Thank goodness for the internet. Can millennials even grasp the concept of numbers or how to work with them?

Really Bad Math, Brian Williams

Tesla: will also have to wait, but apparently it had a huge day in the market yesterday. Wow. Who would have thought?

Headline: NASA's sixteen years of satellite data -- oceans have risen 14 millimeters in the last sixteen years. We'll get back to this, also. It's going to be a great day of blogging. But #1 on my list today: visit the local Lego bricks and mini-figures store.

Headline: global oil glut set to halve in May.

Headline: Venezuela oil exports climb as OPEC agreement kicks in.

Headline: Venezuela? We're not going anywhere -- Chevron.

Headline: Trump orders Chevron to  halt production in Venezuela.

OPEC Basket, link here: $18.36

Global warming and rising seas: science experiment for today for Sophia.
  • put a bunch of ice cubes in a glass
  • fill the glass with water to the brim
  • come back in an hour and see if the water spilled over the brim of the glass
  • hint: water expands as it freezes; as the ice cube melts, the volume of water in the glass should actually decrease 
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2564625027

Three wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, May 5, 2020: 19 for the month; 69 for the quarter, 295 for the year:
  • 37003, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 9-22-15-157N-100@-LL MBH, Marmon, no production data,
  • 36588, drl, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4HA, South Fork, t--; cum 19K over first 31 days; Marmon oil field would be considered to be on the fringe, Tier 2, maybe Tier 3, by some;
  • 36504, drl, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HD, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 32K over first 31 days;
RBN Energy: Refinery cuts, emerging crude production losses drive Permian volatility. Archived.
Well, it’s happened. The first signs of crude oil and gas production curtailments in the Permian Basin materialized over the weekend. That has followed weeks of extreme oversupply conditions, growing storage constraints and distressed pricing, all to deal with the abrupt and unprecedented loss of refinery demand for crude oil due to COVID, not just along the Gulf Coast, where the lion’s share of the U.S. refineries sit, but also more locally in West Texas. The rapidly shifting supply-demand balance, first from reduced local refining demand and now also the emerging production cuts, is adding volatility to the spreads and flows between the West Texas basin’s regional hub at Midland, and downstream hubs at Cushing and Houston. Today, we look at how the Midland market has responded to the downturn in local refining demand, and how production losses will factor into the balancing act.