Sunday, January 5, 2025

The Market Will Be Closed Thursday, January 9, 2025 -- National Day Of Mourning -- President Jimmy Carter -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44625RALLY.

At least as far as I understand conflicting headlines, the US equity markets will be closed Thursday.

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Trudeau To Resign?

Link here.


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Santa Claus Rally

I had to chuckle at the end of the year, all those analysts commiserating about the Santa Claus rally, or lack thereof, this year. Never satisfied.

Next up? The Trump rally.

A look back.

Link here.

Link here.


I have trouble thinking we could have three consecutive years with 20%+ returns.

But, seriously, when do the pundits start talking about the Trump rally?

Google: How Is An AI Chip Different Than A Legacy CPU Or GPU? AI Responds -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44624TECH.

If AI was all that great, it would have given me the answer before I asked the question. Whatever. 

Anyway, I asked the question and here's the AI answer:

But look at this: do an "NPU" word search on the blog -- and near the top of that search:

Remember, just to bring me up to date: CPUs, GPUs, NPUs, XPUs.

Apple Is Collaborating With Broadcom To Develop Its First AI-Focused Server Chip -- It Will Be Here Before We Know It -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44623AAPL.

I spend a lot of time following RBN Energy to keep up with the nuances in the US oil and gas sector. I'm beginning to wonder, as an investor, if that's my best use of time. Look at what I missed. It was only because a reader wrote to tell that Intel is no longer paying a dividend that I stumbled across this.

Intel's dividend and this story have absolutely no relationship; there are no dots to connect, but on the internet, when surfing, it's amazing what one may come across. In this case, Baltra.

Go to MacRumors and do a word search on that site: Baltra. 

Tonight? Nada.

But look at what others are reporting.

And look who, when where --

Arizona, TSMC, Broadcom (AVGO), Apple.

Tim Cook playing the long game. 

Let's take a look at the India Magazine report:

Apple is collaborating with Broadcom to develop its first AI-focused server chip, a move aimed at preparing to address the intense computing demands of its AI features.

The chip, internally code-named “Baltra”, is projected to enter mass production by 2026. The initiative mirrors strategies employed by other tech giants like Google, Amazon, and Meta, which have designed custom chips to support AI services. 

The collaboration highlights Apple’s strategic effort to reduce dependence on NVIDIA, which dominates the AI chip market. The chip will reportedly use Broadcom’s networking technology to optimise AI processing and employ advanced manufacturing processes from TSMC. What’s in for Apple? 

Broadcom shares rose by five percent following the announcement, reflecting the company’s growing role in AI chip manufacturing. 

TSMC’s advanced N3P fabrication process is reported to be used for Baltra. Apple and Broadcom declined to comment on the report. 

Apple’s in-house silicon team in Israel is leading the project, focusing on a chiplet design that improves efficiency and reduces complexity. The design incorporates Apple’s Neural Engine technology to enhance AI task performance. 

This initiative aligns with Apple’s recent AI advancements, including features that generate text, create images, and summarise content. While Apple’s current chips power some AI features, they are not as efficient as chips designed specifically for AI processing. 

Broadcom, which has also partnered with Google on AI chips, will provide networking technology but allow Apple to retain control over the chip’s overall design and production. 

Growth by Partnerships.

This partnership also builds on an existing multi-billion-dollar deal between Apple and Broadcom to produce 5G radio frequency components, announced last year. Apple previously shared plans to integrate its own server chips to power AI features on its devices.

This is an incredible story and confirms what I've been saying for the past year, if not the past two years. Time flies.Wow, if this doesn't help me with my investment decisions, I don't know what would.

Not stated above: Apple may also have the best AI server already in service

Now, the Baltra chip. 

AAPL: $3.9 trillion market cap. P/E: 40. Forward P/E: 32.68.

AVGO: $1.1 trillion market cap. P/E: 180. Forward P/E: 36.63.

See this post, also.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   

SpaceX -- Tell Me Again What NASA Has Been Doing Since 1969? January 5, 2025

Locator: 44622ROCKETS.

NASA? Leaving astronauts stranded in space.

Link here. Be sure to read the entire thread.

More:


Wow -- This Is Almost Scary -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44621TRUMP.

Tag: Trump, dollar

Link here.

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Checking In

INTC -- Intel -- It's Worse Than You Think -- January 5, 2025

Reminder: NFL tonight -- Vikings vs Lions! Both 14 - 2.  What are they playing for tonight? The #1 seed in the NFC North!

Locator: 44609INTEL. 

Tech is tracked here.

Chips: tracked here.

Apple Silicon: link here.

January 5, 2025, update, link here

Link here, from yesterday's WSJ

You may think you know how much Intel is struggling, but the reality is worse.

The once-mighty American innovation powerhouse is losing market share in multiple areas that are critical to its profitability. Its many competitors include not just the AI juggernaut Nvidia but smaller rivals and even previously stalwart allies like Microsoft.

One flashing warning sign: In the latest quarter reported by both companies, Intel’s perennial also-ran, AMD, actually eclipsed Intel’s revenue for chips that go into data centers. This is a stunning reversal: In 2022, Intel’s data-center revenue was three times that of AMD.

And:

Again, the dividend could be keeping a lot of long-term investors in the game. Later: my mistake. A reader wrote to tell me that Intel had suspended their dividend. Someone needs to tell Yahoo!Finance. The latter still shows Intel paying a dividend. If I knew that (that Intel had suspended their dividend), and, I'm sure I did, I had forgotten. 

See this note from August 5, 2024.

Dividend history:


Saudi Update -- Dan -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44620DAN.

Link here

The Chiefs Phoned It In Today -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44619NFL. 

Before we get to the Chiefs, let's see what WTI is doing? Whoo-hoo -- breaks through $74. Trading at $74.22 early Sunday evening.

Now, back to the Chiefs.

Pickup Truck Sales Data For 2024 Updated -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44605AUTOS.

Updates

January 5, 2025: the top 16 popular pick-up trucks in the USA as reported by Wall Street 24/7 one year ago, thus looking at 2023 figures. Link here. Again, sales figures for 2023:

  • vehicle sales (in US in 2023): 15.5 million
  • pickups against that figure: 2.75 million
  • cars: 3.2 million
  • SUVs: make up most of the rest
  • the pickups
    • 16: Nissan Titan: 19,000 sold; starts at $46,000
    • 15: Rivian R1T: 19,410 sold; starts at $69,900
    • 14: GMC Canyon: 22,458 sold; starts at $36,000
    • 13: Ford Ranger: 32,334 sold; starts at $32,670; y/y sales dropped; worrisome for Ford
    • 12: Hyundai Santa Cruz: 36,675 sold; starts at $26,000; 5,000 max capacity -- not good;
    • 11: Honda Ridgeline: 52,001 sold; starts at $40,000 (2024); 5,000 max towing capacity, also
    • 10: Jeep Gladiator: 55,187 models; questionable design; 4,500 max towing capacity; starts at $39,790 (2024)
    • 9: Nissan Frontier: 58,134 models sold; $30,030 starting price; towing capacity, 6,690 pounds
    • 8: Chevrolet Colorado: Chevy's second most popular pickup; 71,082 modesl sold; $29,500 starting price! Towing capacity of 7,700 pounds -- getting more and more curious about the Ford F-150.
    • 7: Ford Maverick: 94,058 models sold; $23,815 starting price; 1,500 pounds towing capacity; say what?
    • 6: Toyota Tundra: 125,185 models sold; $39,965 starting price; a whopping 11,175 pounds towing capacity.
    • 5: Toyota Tacoma: slightly smaller; 234,768 models sold; $39,400 starting price; towing capacity, 6,500 pounds
    • 4: GMC Sierra: arguably the most luxurious pickup in this list; 295,738 models sold; starting price, $38,300; towing capacity, 13,300 pounds
    • 3: RAM pickup: 444,927 models sold; towing capacity starts at 12,750 pounds; $39,420 starting price;
    • 2: Chevrolet Silverado: 555,148; towing capacity, 13,300 pounds; $36,800 starting price;
    • 1: Ford F-Series: 750,789; 13,500 pounds towing capacity; $36,570 starting price; 

The 2024 stats, reported January 4, 2025: 765,649 F-Series pickups sold in 2024, up 2%.

Link here for 2024 sales:

  • mid-size trucks:
  • Chevrolet Colorado: just fell short of 100,000; up 38%
  • GMC Canyon: 38,215 units sold; up 70%
  • Nissan Frontier: 68,155 units; up 17%
  • Ford Ranger: 46,205; up 43%
  • Ford Maverick: 131,143; up 39%
  • Toyota Tacoma: led the segment, at 192,813, down 18%
  • Jeep's Gladiator: also struggled; 42,000; down 24%

For bigger pickup trucks, link here:

  • Ford F-Series: 765,649, but only because of huge discounts in the 4th quarter to pull this off; full year, a paltry 4.1% increase;
  • Chevy Silverado + GMC Sierra: 874,679 models sold;
  • Chevy Silverado: 549,649
  • GMC Sierra; 324,734; for full year, an
  • Ram Trucks: 373,120; down 7.1%

Original Post

$100,000 cars and light truck sales are increasing, and the meme? The US economy is not doing well.

Link here.

The WSJ article is the best I've seen so far today.

The whole story bores me so I won't be posting much on the blog regarding auto sales but ...

... having said that, this is perhaps my favorite graphic:

Unfortunately we're not told the average downpayment paid, but my hunch: the minimum. Also, we're not told the average length of the loan, and then the actual amount of money folks spend on a new car over time. 

The question is: how do folks pay for these $75,000 vehicles?

This is how.

When I was growing up, my dad, the single wage earner in our family for most of our childhood years, had to pay for college for six children.

Today, the American average number of children: 1.66.

And unlike the 50's and 60's it's not uncommon to have two wage-earners.

Today, college is costing tens of thousands of dollars every semester. And that's for state colleges. A "real" college is costing upwards of $100,000 / year for four years, and maybe even five years. And then graduate school.

Bottom line: a new car is much less expensive than paying for college.

Also not mentioned in the article: cost of insurance. Even if rates had not increased (and they have), insurance premiums are a lot less for a $25,000 sedan than a $100,000 Cybertruck.

And, of course, it goes without saying, that the story about EVs is being mis-reported. Really mis-reported. Outright obfuscation in most cases. 

I'll be tracking this story elsewhere; I'm not going to clutter the Bakken with this nonsense.

Retail -- Selected Items -- FRED -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44618RETAIL. 

All prices from FRED, on-line.

Percent increase from oldest entry to newest entry.

Imagine the price of lettuce when all the foreign workers are deported. Wow. But apparently that's what MAGA supporters want. I have no dog in that fight. The amount of lettuce I eat every year could be held in one hand. Although that varies from year-to-year. Depends on my feel-the-need-to-eat-healthy.

See disclaimer.

Specifically: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I often input incorrect data. Everything on the blog needs to be fact-checked.

Disclaimer.

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Recipe: Hoya Black Beans

Link here.

I generally keep this soup in my refrigerator at all times.

North Texas ICE -- Old Minivan Still Going Strong -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44617ARCHIVES. 

Tag: mileage.


Back in 2023, highway driving probably responsible for the MPG. Or an error on my part. Whatever.

Since then, all urban driving and only used for short trips when I can't use my bicycle for various reasons. Mostly just used when I need to go shopping for items too heavy to carry on the bike, and for taking Sophia back and forth to Jiu-Jitsu. 

$32 for gasoline from October 23, 2024, to January 5, 2025. Yeah, I'll take that.

Also, note that the price of gasoline hasn't changed much since December 8, 2023.

The NFL? Jerry Jones Has Broken The Code -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44616JERRYJONES.

Has Anyone Heard Of Foxconn? Recorded Second-Highest Monthly Revenue Ever -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44615APPLE.

See disclaimer.

Specifically: I often make simple arithmetic errors. I often input incorrect data. Everything on the blog needs to be fact-checked. Trust but verify.

See disclaimer.

Link here.

Be sure to read the entire thread.

Spend some time on this one:


Link to PiQ:

Foxconn: total revenue in December alone reached T$654.8 billion, up 42.3% year/year and the second-highest ever level for the month.

Foxconn: T$654.8 = US$19.88 billion.

Apple revenue, July - August, 2024, US$94.93 or US$31.64 billion in one month, July-Sept quarter, 2024.

Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- January 5, 2025

Locator: 44614NEWWELLS.

The wells:

 

  • 40205, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 1402-2BH, Fertile Valley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-202452981372
  • 40099, conf, Silver Hill Energy Operating, LLC, Morgen Federal 158-93-17-20-1MBH, East Tioga, npd,
  • 40587, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson LW 5-8 12H, Elk, npd,
  • 40199, conf, Grayson Mill, Hopes 30-27F 5H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20242926616361
10-2024137555930
9-20242286310737
8-2024475347481
7-202451600
  • 40588, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson LW 5-8 5H, ELK, npd,
  • 40295, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 2B TFH, Elidah, npd,
  • 40083, conf, Hess, EN-Halvorson-157-9-3229H-6, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2024185490
10-20242601639798
9-20242620633140
8-20242248727180
7-20243904232779
  • 40565, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Simpson 5-8 6H, Elk, npd,
  • 40084, conf, Hess, EN-Halvorson-157-93-3229H-5, Big Butte,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2024170740
10-20241908426288
9-20241785521365
8-20242084625921
7-20242982016652
  • 40758, conf, Neptune Operating LLC, Lee South 17-8-5 7H, Ragged Butte, npd,
  • 40563, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Sandpiper 29 1H, Starbuck,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-202433700
9-202428130
8-202422720
  • 40583, conf, Neptune Operating, Lee South 17-8-5 8H, Ragged Butte, npd,
  • 39999, conf, Hess, GO-State-157-97-2116H-6, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2024214319060
10-20242568911459
9-20242577313369
8-2024245405488
7-20248250
  • 40757, conf, Neptune Operating, Skedsvold 20-29-32 6H, Ragged Butte, npd,
  • 40453, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 3101-4BH, Fertile Valley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2024214319060
10-20242568911459
9-20242577313369
8-2024245405488
7-20248250
  • 40294, conf, BR, Nordeng 2B TFH, Elidah, npd,
  • 40210, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1301-3BH, Fertile Valley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2024196658117
10-20242447210835
9-20242610613264
8-2024251445583
7-2024420
  • 39998, conf, Hess, GO-State-157-97-2116H-5, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-2024176340
10-20241747632062
9-2024997519310
8-20241676023279
7-20243318947268