Locator: 49510ARCHIVES.
CPI: 3.0%. [Most likely the Fed's whispered target.]
GDP estimate: 3.9%.
Tariffs:
Dow:
Personal savings rate: increasing - from Barron's --
Price of oil: $61.
Price of gasoline: $2.40 / gallon.
US not at war.
US government shut down.
Hurricane season, 2024 prediction for 2025:
Locator: 49509INVESTING.
Absolutely the most fascinating tech story out there today -- too big to fail: you can't not watch. This is either going to be the most amazing turnaround story ever in the history of free market capitalism or it's going to be a train wreck that we watch in slow motion. Link here.
During the day:
Rush Limbaugh:
I learned a lot from Rush. I am absolutely convinced Rush would agree that President Trump is managing the government shutdown perfectly. At the end of the day, Rush was second to none with his political analysis.
It is very, very interesting that people like Maureen Dowd and/Peggy Noonan have not commented on this. It's very, very clear that Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer have not figured this out, whereas Mike Johnson and John Thune have. I don't need the push back so I'm not going to expand on this, but this is exactly how the military, literally on a daily basis, handles these things.
The Monroe Doctrine:
An a/c carrier in the Caribbean. A good spot to do training exercises. Puts the cartels (Colombia), Maduro (Venezuela), and Cuba on notice. Not just a twofer but a threefer -- a trifecta.
It's interesting: I've spent the afternoon reading Joanne Paul's House of Dudley and discussing themes from that book with ChatGPT. The combination really puts the Hegseth decision to put an a/c carrier in the Caribbean in perspective.
By the way, the US couldn't have done that had Trump not shut the Mideast down. At least for the moment. That "extra" a/c that provides backup in the Persian Gulf, if needed, can now circle aimlessly in the American Gulf.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia on his way to Liberia by Halloween?
**********************************
Investing
Cramer: supply and demand --
Cramer:
BRK-B is down 7% in the past six months. Interestingly, Cramer avoided any comment when a viewer called in and asked about BRK-B. Anyone having to ask Cramer what to do with BRK-B at this point is simply not paying attention.
Earnings next week:
Tech, chips in the Android universe -- see disclaimer:
AI prompt: I found this incredibly interesting when I asked Google Gemini this question -- Which company has the lead in CPUs -- I think it's AMD -- (Nvidia has GPU lead, not CPUs).
Google Gemini:
Am I diversified?
On this segment, I was surprised Cramer didn't see this. He got the answer right but for the wrong reason. A viewer in this segment had both META and MSFT in his 5-ticker portfolio and asked if he was diversified. Cramer struggled with this: agreeing that the viewer was diversified "even though the viewer had two Mag 7 / high cap tech stocks in his five-ticker portfolio. In fact, META and MSFT are in two completely different sectors. META is in social media / advertising; MSFT is in infrastructure / software / business sales. Two completely different sectors.
In fact, the Mag 7: no overlap -- all seven are in completely different sectors:
One could consider adding the following to the Mag 7 and not be duplicative, only a very partial list:
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
Locator: 49508B.
*****************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $61.50.
Active rigs: 35.
Four new permits, #42427 - #42430, inclusive:
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Locator: 49507B.
Quick connects:
Locator: 49506ARCHIVES.
Department of War: we now know why Pete Hegseth renamed the Department of Defense, the Department of War ... the US is sending -- for the first time of which I'm aware -- an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean. This is important; too many seamen spend too much time in port without getting much training. And being home that much drives their spouses nuts.
Bull market: I would argue the bull market has been much longer than just four years. It was interrupted by the one-to-two year lockdown / slowdown due to Covid-19. That was so incredibly short, it simply offered an opportunity for mom-and-pop retail investors to add to their positions.
Canada: trade talks. Prime Minister Carney trying to salvage what he can. Trump has managed to divide Canadians between themselves: the provincial government of Ontario vs the Canadian federal government. Doug Ford: what a buffoon. [One day later: Trump says he will raise the US tariffs on Canadian imports 10% above whatever they are currently. Doug Ford says he will "pause" the pads.]
**************************
The Book Page
The House of Dudley: A New History of Tudor England, Joanne Paul, c. 2023.
Highly recommended for those:
Highly recommend strong familiarization with Henry VIII and the Wars of Roses before wading this book. I'm reading a library copy but may have to get my own copy.
Locator: 49505OIL.
From May 30, 2025, link here.
Production:
l
Social security COLA: 2.8%.
I just heard the Canadian tape of Ronald Reagan on tariffs. It is amazing how wrong Ronald Reagan was on tariffs.
The "East Wing" is / was so small that for state dinners, tents had to be set up outside on the grass. Wow. Amazing. Everybody knows.
But, wow, look at those futures.
AAPL is up $1.60, futures.
CVX is up a little.
GLW and SCCO are both up over a percent. Huge.
More and more Jamie Dimon's comment about cockroaches looks more and more ridiculous and completely out of line. Wow.
AI market is crazy.
Crazy.
Cramer is thrilled for Lisa Su (AMD). He was an early supporter of Lisa Su. I invested in AMD the week that Lisa Su was on the cover of Barron's, quite some time ago.
It's funn how things worked out. With regard to female CEOs I bet on the right "horse." I thought I had missed OXY / Vicky Hollub when I didn't invest in OXY early on -- nope. In this case, waiting for the next female CEO to come along ... in this case ... Lisa Su. Who would have thought?
Sara Eisen has the hour off.
CNBC keeps replaying the Canadian / Ronald Reagan ad. Hard to tell if "news" from CNBC or a paid ad. It's a paid ad. Very, very clever. And Trump is going to hear this ad over and over and over. Every time he hears it, another dagger in the Ontario government. LOL.
Substitute countries (tariffs) with wives, and there is an incredible similarity between President Trump and Henry VIII. Those who "crossed" Henry VIII faced time in The Tower (at best) or beheading (at worst). Those countries who "cross" President Trump face punishing tariffs or even worse, sanctions. LOL.
Locator: 49502TPUS.
Updates
October 25, 2025:
AI prompt:
I assume Google designs, markets, sells their TPUs, but who actually does the manufacturing -- the fab?
Answer: link here.
October 25, 2025: One week ago, none of us had heard of "TPUs."
Now, today:
AI prompt: how is Google using TPUs to make money?
Breakdown:
AI prompt: this is a great time to ask, "with whom has Apple partnered for cloud-based AI support?" I think folks might be surprised.
Original Post
Note: for the most part, this discussion has to do with the cloud and not personal computers.
Note: Apple is not using TPUs (to the best of my knowledge). The closest comparison for Apple to TPUs is their neural units (NPUs) which they do use at "the edge" (personal devices, as opposed to "the cloud").
AI prompt:
There's occasional talk that TPUs could take over the GPU market. My understanding is that these are two different "chips" optimized for different "jobs." It's possible analysts don't mean that TPUs will replace GPUs in computers / servers but that the "excitement / enthusiasm" for investors will move to TPUs, which if true, is simply part of the investing process. Your thoughts.
Part of ChatGPT's reply:
Projections:
Locator: 49501MU.
It's kind of interesting.
About two years ago, I forget exactly when, I made a huge pivot in my investment portfolio, as I pivoted to tech and tech infrastructure.
Micron was not part of the initial pivot. But then I read Chip War and added Micron. It may have turned out to be my best move. Funny how things worked / work out. I took Charlie Munger's advice and never quit reading.
**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Briefly:
Locator: 49500B.
East Wing: Trump is doing it "his way." LOL. I'm lovin' it. Seriously.
Target, the retail store: laying off 1,800 corporate employees. Even CNBC anchors were amazed at this number. 1,800! Redundant. At corporate headquarters. What in the world were they all doing? This is in the private sector. Imagine what's going on in the federal government. Wow. Ticker: one year, down 37%; five years, down 41%.
Trump traveling to China. Most transformative president since 1951. Traveling again, This time halfway around the world. His predecessor had trouble getting across the stage.
Trump terminates tariff talk with Canada.
Ford shuts down F-150 Lightning production. California and Governor Newsom spinning. I don't think folks realize how concerning this has to be for California politicos.
McDonald's: increases dividend by 5%.
McDonald's has increased its quarterly dividend by 5%, from $1.77 to $1.86 per share, reflecting confidence in its growth strategy. This marks the 49th consecutive year the company has raised its dividend. The new dividend is payable on December 15, 2025, to shareholders of record on December 1, 2025, and will result in an annualized dividend of $7.44 per share.
Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library will open July 4, 2026. Link here.
Target: cuts 1,800 corporate jobs. See above.
Applied Materials: lays off 4% of workforce.
StanChart: turns bearish. Was bullish at $80; now bearish at $60.
Finally a headline that pulls no punches: link here. It should be noted that the Arctic -- not one bit of it made the National Geograpic list of places to visit in 2026.
************************************
Back to the Bakken
WTI: $61.73. link here.
New wells: link here.
RBN Energy: link here.
Locator: 49499TECH.
This will be a recurring theme in 2026 and on.
Comments in the thread most interesting, as usual.
Locator: 49498TRAVEL.
Link here. In bold, places I've been. Not in bold: places I have no desire to visit.
