Sunday, August 3, 2025

An Interlude -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48771WKRP.

Link here.

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oI -- OpenAI Update -- TechCrunch -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48770OPENAI.

Updates

August 3, 2025: META: to share costs of building out AI.

****************************
Seminal Article

The TechCrunch article featured here may be a seminal article on the future of AI. I don't know but for now I may use this post as the site where I track general articles on the future of AI. AI is tracked here on the blog. 

First thought: things are moving so fast in AI, it's important that Apple take a pause, and really think this out. It's very clear that developing AI in-house was a completely naive thought by Apple.

Link here to wiki.

According to leaked information, o1 was formerly known within OpenAI as "Q*", and later as "Strawberry."
The codename "Q*" first surfaced in November 2023, around the time of Sam Altman's ousting and subsequent reinstatement, with rumors suggesting that this experimental model had shown promising results on mathematical benchmarks.
In July 2024, Reuters reported that OpenAI was developing a generative pre-trained transformer known as "Strawberry", which later became o1. 

For now, and this may change, but for now I divide chatbots into two categories:

  • conversational chat; and,
  • specialty chat. 

Examples:

  • conversational chat: ChatGPT (OpenAI)
  • specialty chat: Claude (Anthropic)

Full article here from TechCrunch, for personal use only. 

Link here.

Shortly after Hunter Lightman joined OpenAI as a researcher in 2022, he watched his colleagues launch ChatGPT, one of the fastest-growing products ever. 

Meanwhile, Lightman quietly worked on a team teaching OpenAI’s models to solve high school math competitions. Today that team, known as MathGen, is considered instrumental to OpenAI’s industry-leading effort to create AI reasoning models: the core technology behind AI agents that can do tasks on a computer like a human would.

“We were trying to make the models better at mathematical reasoning, which at the time they weren’t very good at,” Lightman told TechCrunch, describing MathGen’s early work. OpenAI’s models are far from perfect today — the company’s latest AI systems still hallucinate and its agents struggle with complex tasks.

But its state-of-the-art models have improved significantly on mathematical reasoning. One of OpenAI’s models recently won a gold medal at the International Math Olympiad, a math competition for the world’s brightest high school students. OpenAI believes these reasoning capabilities will translate to other subjects, and ultimately power general-purpose agents that the company has always dreamed of building. 

ChatGPT was a happy accident — a lowkey research preview turned viral consumer business — but OpenAI’s agents are the product of a years-long, deliberate effort within the company. 

“Eventually, you’ll just ask the computer for what you need and it’ll do all of these tasks for you,” said OpenAI CEO Sam Altman at the company’s first developer conference in 2023. “These capabilities are often talked about in the AI field as agents. The upsides of this are going to be tremendous.”

Whether agents will meet Altman’s vision remains to be seen, but OpenAI shocked the world with the release of its first AI reasoning model, o1, in the fall of 2024. Less than a year later, the 21 foundational researchers behind that breakthrough are the most highly sought-after talent in Silicon Valley. Mark Zuckerberg recruited five of the o1 researchers to work on Meta’s new superintelligence-focused unit, offering some compensation packages north of $100 million. One of them, Shengjia Zhao, was recently named chief scientist of Meta Superintelligence Labs. The reinforcement learning renaissance The rise of OpenAI’s reasoning models and agents are tied to a machine learning training technique known as reinforcement learning (RL). RL provides feedback to an AI model on whether its choices were correct or not in simulated environments.

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The Top 25 Largest Public Companies In The World -- August, 2025 -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48769MAGNIFICENT7.

Link here.

All but maybe three are headquartered outside of the United States. 

  • Saudi Aramco: #7 -- not too long ago, #1
  • Taiwan Semiconductor: #9
  • Tencent: #17

Magnificent 7 + 5:

  • Nvidia: #1
  • Microsoft: #2
  • Apple: #3
  • Google: #4
  • Amazon: #5
  • Meta Platforms: #6
  • Broadcom: #8
  • Taiwan Semiconductor: #9
  • Tesla: #11
  • Oracle: #14
  • Netflix: #19
  • Palantir: #24


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How Trump Could Change The Fed -- Barron's -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48768THEFED.

Link here. 

Could this be JPow's legacy?

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Railroad Mergers -- Picking Winners -- Barron's -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48767RAILROADS.
Locator: 48710CSX.

Updates

August 1, 2025: railroad stocks could fare wells as UNP / NSC merge. Picking winners. Barron's.

Later, 10: 21 a.m. CT: link here.

Original Post 

The Cramer hour.

Leads with UNP and NSC: first American transcontinental railroad in modern era. And ever in the history of the US.

NSC: being offered $320 / share to be acquired by UNP; currently trading at $286. $85 billion deal. NSC dropped to $275 by the end of the week, August 1, 2025.

FTC:

  • three Republicans
  • one Democrat
  • one vacant seat
  • Trump will appoint a Republican to fill that vacant seat; to be named in December, 2025
  • needs to be fact-checked: CNBC is reporting something different (but at end of day, makes no difference)

Thoughts:

  • CSX
    • if FTC approves one transcontinental railroad, needs to approve both (if BRK/BNSF goes after CSX)
  • UNP - NSC will be a two-year process; most of that time selling it to the public, unions, shareholders;
  • has Warren Buffett been building a cash position to make one last huge purchase?
  • I don't think there's any way Buffett would let arch competitor UNP have the only transcontinental railroad
  • Buffett's been very, very quiet, but he continues to see assets and no big purchases announced as far as I know -- disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Back of the envelope, CSX:

  • 320 / 268 =  x / 36
  • x = $43 / share


  • 67 / x = 36 / 43
  • x = $80 billion

Everything fits.

The big, big, big deal: Trump leaves office having "built" two transcontinental railroads. 

The "re-industrialization" of America. 

Think about all the story lines.

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Tech Graphs -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48766TECH.

Shay, Nvidia:


Evan, META:

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Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48765WELLS.

The wells:

  • 40449, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Eagle 29 1, Starbuck,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-202518790
  • 41272, conf, CLR, HM Hove 8-9H, West Capa, npd,
  • 41465, conf, Krakken, Boxcar 4-9-16 5H, Boxcar Butte, npd,
  • 41271, conf, CLR, HM Hove 7-9H, West Capa, npd,
  • 39520, conf, BR, State Dodge 3C MBH, Dimmick Lake, npd,
  • 41464, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 4H, Boxcar Butte, npd,
  • 41270, conf, CLR, HM Hove 6-9H, West Capa, npd,
  • 40900, conf, Hess, BL-Blanchard-155-96-2215H-3, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251477045713
4-20252366952054
3-20252119243959
2-20251455838612
  • 37542, conf, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-LS-152-95-120H-1, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20253005244665
4-202519813803
3-202576878983
2-20254332462470
  • 41269, conf,  CLR, Michael State 4-16H, Grinnell, npd,
  • 40901, conf, Hess, BL-Blachard-155-96-2215H-4, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251669853531
4-20252290860416
3-20252211646017
2-20251343548669
  • 40771, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-5, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251867541974
4-20252955756806
3-20251021816117
2-202533902929
  • 37593, conf, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-152-95-1207H-6, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20251552649892
4-20251993336244
3-20252470743662
2-20252528753864
  • 41463, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 3H, Boxcar Butte, npd,
  • 34291, conf, BR, State Dodge 3B TFH, Dimmick Lake, npd,
  • 41462, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 2H, Boxcar Butte, npd,
  • 41268, conf, CLR, Michael State 3-16H1, Grinnell, npd,
  • 40773, conf, Hess, BL-JE Ulven-155-96-0322H-2, Beaver Lodge,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20253613668988
4-20253497157146
3-20252450041920
2-20253068321892
  • 41267, conf, CLR, Michael State 2-16H, Grinnell, npd,
  • 40772, conf, Hess, BL-JE Ulven-155-96-0322H-1,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20252841354250
4-20251943635862
3-20253096555532
2-20253630782378
  • 34292, conf, BR, State Dodge 3A MBH, Dimmick Lake, npd,

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Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 3, 2025

Locator: 48764WELLS.

The wells:

 Wednesday, August 13, 2025: 26 for the month,74 for the quarter, 504 for the year,
40449, conf, Empire North Dakota LLC, Eagle 29 1,

Tuesday, August 12, 2025: 25 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 503 for the year, 
41272, conf, CLR, HM Hove 8-9H,

Monday, August 11, 2025: 24 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 502 for the year,
41465, conf, Krakken, Boxcar 4-9-16 5H,
41271, conf, CLR, HM Hove 7-9H,

Sunday, August 10, 2025: 22 for the month, 70 for the quarter, 500 for the year, 
39520, conf, BR, State Dodge 3C MBH,

Saturday, August 9, 2025: 21 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 499 for the year,
41464, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 4H,
41270, conf, CLR, HM Hove 6-9H,

Friday, August 8, 2025: 19 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 497 for the year, 
40900, conf, Hess, BL-Blanchard-155-96-2215H-3,
37542, conf, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-LS-152-95-120H-1,

Thursday, August 7, 2025: 17 for the month, 65 for the quarter, 495 for the year,
41269, conf,  CLR, Michael State 4-16H,
40901, conf, Hess, BL-Blachard-155-96-2215H-4,
40771, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-5,
37593, conf, Hess, AN-Lone Tree-152-95-1207H-6,

Wednesday, August 6, 2025: 13 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 491 for the year,
41463, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 3H,
34291, conf, BR, State Dodge 3B TFH,

Tuesday, August 5, 2025: 11 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 489 for the year,
41462, conf, Kraken, Boxcar 4-9-16 2H,
41268, conf, CLR, Michael State 3-16H1,
40773, conf, Hess, BL-JE Ulven-155-96-0322H-2,

Monday, August 4, 2025: 8 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 486 for the year,
41267, conf, CLR, Michael State 2-16H,

Sunday, August 3, 2025: 7 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 485 for the year,
40722, conf, Hess, BL-JE Ulven-155-96-0322H-1,

Saturday, August 2, 2025: 6 for the month, 54 for the quarter, 484 for the year,
34292, conf, BR, State Dodge 3A MBH,

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