Locator: 48647JOBS.
After the jobs report, the US equity market ticket up slightly. All major indices forecast to open in the green. Last trading day this week; markets will close noon, CT.
Jobs:
- June unemployment rate drops to 4.1% (U-3, see chart below)
- June jobs numbers: up an astounding, reassuring 147,000
- Cramer: this is a strong number -- won't help Trump's thesis, i.e., JPow needs to step down and Fed needs to lower "the rate."
- suggests that Trump did not know the unemployment number before it was reported
- Cramer: where are all the layoffs due to tariffs, etc (except for Microsoft)
Link here. For all the negative comments about Trump, the economy, tariffs, the proposed budget, the US economy is looking per good.
Job growth proved better than expected in June, as the labor market
showed surprising resilience in the wake of President Donald Trump’s
calls for interest rate cuts.
Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month,
higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised
144,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
April’s tally also saw a small upward revision, now at 158,000 following
an 11,000 increase. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February and
against a forecast for a slight increase to 4.3%.
A more encompassing
rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time
positions for economic reasons edged down to 7.7%.
Though the jobless rates fell, it was due largely to a decrease in those
working or looking for jobs. The labor force participation rate fell to
62.3%, its lowest level since late 2022 as the labor force, owing to an
increase of 329,000 of those not counted in the labor force. The
household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate,
showed a smaller gain of just 93,000.
The US GDP: 67% due to service economy and the US service economy is doing fine.
The chart: the unemployment number I track actually ticked up --
*************************************
Yesterday: The ADP Numbers
I really have little interest in the jobs reports -- don’t take that out of context -- so this is for the archives.
First of all: CNBC talking
heads say the ADP numbers and the government numbers, to be released
tomorrow, often diverge, and often diverge significantly. Most recently
ADP numbers have diverged much more than the estimates -- some talking
heads suggesting ADP numbers are simply "wrong." Whatever that means.
Today:
There was a lot of "talk" on CNBC
when these numbers came out today, but I certainly don't recall
anything of note to explain why ADP "badly missed expectations."
CNBC narrative here.
There are two stories here:
- jobs and the US economy;
- how badly ADP missed expectations.
Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the
first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast
an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was
revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.
But wow, that was quite a miss.
In
our area, the sector seeming to lose the most jobs: restaurants. I've
never seen so many restaurants closing in this tourist-destination area
of Texas. It's so bad, that the local (daily) community impact media
outlet is now tracking all the restaurants that have recently closed and
announcements of future closings.
I've always thought restaurants
overbuilt in the local area but a lot of iconic restaurants in the area
have announced closures.
More broadly, tech companies have been
announcing job cuts across the board, and some vehicle manufacturers are
now also cutting jobs.
So, what's the denominator (which is not mentioned in any of the stories today):
The most recent available data shows the
total non-farm employment in the US was 159.56 million in May 2025.
This figure is up from 159.42 million in April 2025 and 157.83 million
in May 2024, indicating growth over the past month and year. The
month-over-month increase was 0.09%, while the year-over-year increase
was 1.10%.
So, 100,000 / 160 million = 0.000625 = 0. 0625%.
Drop all the zeros: 1 / 1600.
As
always, I consider monthly job numbers changes nothing more than
headline opportunities for business news outlets. Don't take that out of
context.
