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Updates
1:37 p.m. ET: US House minority leader finished his speech at 1:37 p.m. ET. I had predicted he would finish around 12:30 p.m. ET, so I was off by more than an hour. The US House concluded voting on the Big Beautiful Bill at 2:45 p.m. ET, easily beating Trump's July 4th deadline.
Original Post
Vote was scheduled for 8:00 a.m. ET this morning, or even earlier, as early as 5:00 a.m. ET.
Then, the minority leader took the floor, the last Democrat to speak.
He has now spoken for almost five hours. How much longer will he talk?
The current record is eight hours set by Republican McCarthy when the US House was getting ready to vote on the Biden bill (which also passed) under Democrat majority in the US House.
No one on CNBC has even mentioned how long he may keep speaking.
But here's a clue.
Look at the speaker when he's on the air.
Look at the two-inch binder that he's reading from.
Based on the thickness of the binder, he is about four-fifths through. That doesn't mean there isn't another binder or that he could speak for hours extemporaneously, but based on the binder, he's four-fifths through.
So, four-fifths of what = six hours?
That yields 7.5 hours. He's spoken for about six hours. CNBC says about five hours and that changes the numbers slightly, but 7.5 minus 6 = 1.5 hours.
So, based on the binder, 1.5 hours left. that takes us to sometime during the noon hour ET, or sometime after 11:00 a.m. CT. It's going to be close, but it's possible the US House could begin voting before 1:00 p.m. CT. But a lot of those Democratic US representatives have planes to catch, and they're not going to be happy if they miss those flights today.
US senators, I'm sure, have already left town. Assuming I understand the process correctly. Let's ask ChatGPT.
That's correct, unless the US House changes one word in the bill they got back from the US Senate, the US senate bill will go to President Trump’s desk.
