Monday, November 20, 2017

Making America Great Again -- The WSJ -- November 20, 2017

From the WSJ this evening:
Don’t look now, but U.S. growth forecasts are moving higher. That’s helping to support U.S. stocks.
Projections for U.S. economic growth from two Federal Reserve banks have risen in recent weeks. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday forecast that gross domestic product will rise 3.8% in the fourth quarter, up from a forecast of 3.2% a week earlier.
A separate measure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecast 3.4% growth last week. Research firm DataTrek noted that the rival forecasts are outpacing projections from human economists, who on average expect 2.7% growth for the quarter.
Even if the less optimistic Atlanta Fed model is correct, it would be the best quarter for the U.S. economy in more than three years.
The central banks’ forecasts are derived from statistical models that track incoming economic data, and are used by traders to gauge the health of the economy.
The estimates have been the subject of some contention as they often offer diverging views on the health of the economy. The recent harmony between the two measures means “economists may have some catching up to do,” according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.
Much more at the link.

It's hard to believe but "Trump" was not mentioned in the article. Nor was "Obama."

Re-posting: GDP Now forecasts 3.4% for 4Q17.

Notes For The Granddaughters

Tuna from Costco. Potato salad from Tom Thumb grocery store across the street.

FERC Approves Columbia's West Virginia / Virginia NG Pipeline -- November 20, 2017

An earlier post:
March 17, 2016: the deal is announced -- TransCanada will buy Columbia for $10.2 billion. It looks like Warren Buffett missed a deal.
Today, from Platts: Columbia gets FERC sign-off for 1.3 Bcf/d WB XPress pipeline project.
Columbia Gas Transmission won certificate approval Friday from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the 29-mile, 1.3 Bcf/d WB XPress natural gas pipeline project.

The project will increase capacity along Columbia's existing WB Line, which runs bi-directionally through West Virginia and the northern part of Virginia.

The project will pick up gas around Braxton County, West Virginia, and deliver 500 MMcf/d eastbound into interconnects with Cove Point Pipeline and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line as well as sending 800 MMcf/d westbound into interconnects with Tennessee Gas at Broad Run and existing Columbia infrastructure including Columbia Gas Appalachia Pool.

The FERC action came after Columbia parent TransCanada recently warned FERC of pressure on its schedules for WB XPress and its 171-mile, 2.7 Bcf/d Mountaineer XPress project without prompt approval, particularly as an environmental window controlling timing of tree clearing had already opened.
It's "funny" how things work out. Although the Keystone XL is important for a number of reasons, in the big scheme of things, with regard to pipelines, the big story for the US has been and will be natural gas pipelines.

US refiners need heavy oil -- two sources: Canada and Venezuela. But US refiners will get the heavy oil they need -- it may be just more expensive than necessary.

The real story right now: natural gas pipelines. And fortunately the current administration and FERC support natural gas pipelines. 

The Daily Note

The Last 65 Days Of His First Term
Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330 -- this page

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

December 17, 2017, T+330: another NFL-free Sunday.

December 16, 2017, T+329: NDSU buries its South Carolina opponent, 55-13. Will now advance to Finals against Madison who beat them in the semifinals last year.

December 15, 2017, T+328: Marco Rubio says he will now vote for the tax bill.

December 14, 2017, T+327: Marco Rubio says he can't vote for the tax bill as it stands; last minute.

December 13, 2017, T+326: all eyes on the tax bill.

December 12, 2017, T+325: market surges 130 points, setting new records.

December 11, 2017, T+324: quiet. Things look bad for the GOP in the US Senate.

December 10, 2017, T+323: another NFL-free Sunday.

December 9, 2017, T+322: a reporter, previously fired for reported fake news, and then re-hired by The Washington Post, tweeted fake news about President Trump. Caught red-handed; apologized; deleted the tweet; and, said he was not tweeting for The Washington Post.

December 8, 2017, T+321: the polls are in, and it appears Al Franken's "pity speech" yesterday fell far short of a true statesman. Maybe he can come back and run for the US presidency.

December 7, 2017, T+320: Al Franken announces that he will resign in the coming weeks. The US Senate democrats have set a very, very high bar. Al Franken was very well liked by his colleagues; his fall happened very, very quickly. There is very likely any number of other US Senate democrats that are worried what might come out of the woodwork. Most US Senators have been in office much longer than Al Franken.

December 6, 2017, T+319: the liberal media suggests that Trump will be impeached; the conservative media suggests Bob Mueller's investigation is starting to fall apart. Profile in courage: after 22 years, President Trump does what Congress voted to do with regard to Jerusalem. Senator Schumer advocated for this move. Clinton, Bush 43, nor Barack had the courage to do this.

December 5, 2017, T+318: Representative Conyers, age 88, says he wants to spend more time with his family.

December 4, 2017, T+317: the Trump rally continues.

December 3, 2017, T+316: president tweets and tweets and tweets. Gets Congressional attention.

December 2, 2017, T+315: ABC suspends top political reporter for four weeks without pay for reporting fall story on General Flynn. On top of that: General Flynn's agreement to plead guilty reveals no "smoking gun." Worse, General Flynn accused of only one offense: lying to the FBI. And, of course, he did that thinking he was protecting a legitimately elected president.

December 1, 2017, T+314: ABC reports entirely false story about General Flynn. Stock market plunges 350 points.

November 30, 2017, T+313: Parliamentarian scuttles scheduled vote on GOP tax bill.

November 29, 2017, T+312: "Mr Market" is betting the tax bill is passed by the US Senate. I don't see it happening. But maybe Collins and McCain will be the only two to vote with the democrats on this issue.

November 28, 2017, T+311: tea leaves suggest Trump's tax bill will go down in flames. US Senate leaders hope to vote on Thursday (in two days).

November 27, 2017, T+310: Quiet.

November 26, 2017, T+309: all-time US retail shopping records being sent. Donald Trump's first Thanksgiving as president.

November 25, 2017, T+308: from CNBC -- (and archived here)
  • Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley is giving President Trump yet another major victory on judicial nominations.
  • None of this would have been possible without Harry Reid's decision to kill the filibuster.
  • The result is Trump will get to fill the most federal judiciary vacancies in 40 years.
November 24, 2017, T+307: Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit new records. CNBC notes that but does not mention the "Trump rally."

November 23, 2017, T+306: Thanksgiving.

November 22, 2017, T+305: quiet. Trump off to Florida White House -- hardly gets any press coverage -- which is good news.

November 21, 2017, T+304: market surging just before Thanksgiving.

November 20, 2017, T+303: Nebraska regulators "approve" the idea of a new crude oil pipeline crossing part of their state called the Keystone XL, but did not approve the route.

November 19, 2017, T+302: another NFL-free Sunday. Martin Truex, Jr, wins the NASCAR championship. None of the drivers "took a knee" prior to race start.

November 18, 2017, T+301: Saturday, quiet.

The Political Page, T+303 -- November 20, 2017

Keystone XL: Nebraska regulators approve 3 - 2 the "concept" that TransCanada can build the Keystone XL pipeline through their state .. but not where the company had planned. Back to square one. Even if TransCanada agrees to the new route, what's not to say that the Nebraska state supreme court won't step in and stop the whole thing? All this "excitement" that the pipeline has been approved is grossly misplaced.

It's hard to believe but I had 49 episodes of "As The World Turns" following the Keystone XL story. The 49th episode is at this link.

Another one bites the dust:

I can think of a half-dozen others that might yet be accused. Clue: think of the anchors that are not touching this story.

Kaepernick Kapers: it appears that what started as a one-man protest again "something," the NFL players protest has morphed into a protest against the NFL owners. At some point, the word "plantation" is going to enter the conversation. Again.

XTO With Eight New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 20, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs563965186185

Eight (8) new permits:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for what appears to be one 8-well Arlene Federal pad or two closely spaced four-well pads; four wells will be located in NESE 23-149-97; and four wells will be located in SESE 23-149-97
Twelve permits renewed (this comes on top of 41 permits renewed on one day late last week):
  • Crescent Point Energy (4): two CPEUSC Ruby permits; two CPEUSC Holmes permits, all in Williams County  
  • Petroshale (3): three Petroshale US permits in McKenzie County
  • EOG (2): two Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Noonan Federal permits in McKenize County
  • CLR: one Stewart permit in Divide County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 28463, 715, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-96-24C-13-4H, Keene, t11/17; cum --
  • 30759, 671, Sinclair Oil & Gas, Nelson 25-26XH, Parshall, t9/17; cum 5K over 11 days

Natural Gas Pipeline Shortfall -- Platts -- November 20, 2017

Story here.
The Southeast natural gas market has a problem. Gas demand from LNG exports is expected to grow 10 Bcf/d the next five years, and in a high case, as much as 15 Bcf/d. To supply that growing demand, a massive buildout of pipeline capacity has been undertaken recently to move Northeast gas to the Southeast, with further capacity planned through 2019.

However, the actual new capacity from the Northeast that reaches these demand centers, specifically in Louisiana and East Texas, falls well short of the new demand.

It appears demand is 2.5x the current capacity.

Random Update Of Two Brooklyn Oil Field Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- November 20, 2017

Two Brooklyn oil field wells come off the confidential list today:
  • 30094, 1,506, CLR, Olympia 4-2H1, Brooklyn, a good well; as much as 35K in one month; see below; Three Forks 1; 59 stages; 5.9 million lbs; t8/17; cum 43K 9/17;
  • 30093, 1,854, CLR, Olympia 5-27H, Brooklyn, a good well, as much as 40K in one month; see below, 59 stages; 9.2 million lbs; t8/17; cum 72K 9/17; 
I was curious how this would affect #20475, the first Three Forks well drilled in this township.

See this post:

The graphic:

Note this well:
  • 20475, 808, CLR, Olympia 1-27H, Brooklyn t10/11; cum 257K 9/17;
Recent production data for #20475:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Nebraska Regulators "Approve" Keystone XL -- We'll See Where This Goes -- November 20, 2017


Later, 1:32 p.m. Central Time: UNP announces a 10 percent dividend increase to 66.5 cents per share.  The increased dividend is payable December 28, 2017, to shareholders of record as of November 30, 2017. Nice.

Later, 1:19 p.m. Central Time: with the regulators voting "yes" only for an alternate route, I see this as a "no" vote, and ultimately a deal killer for the Keystone XL. From Moody's this morning:
Moody's Investors Service has released a brief statement on the Nebraska Public Services Commission's 2-3 vote to approve an alternate route to the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline. Feel free to use this quote if you're covering the story, and please attribute it to Gavin MacFarlane, a vice president at Moody's Investors Service and the lead analyst on TransCanada:
"While today’s Keystone XL pipeline approval is an important milestone, it does not provide certainty that the project will ultimately be built and begin operating. Pipeline construction would negatively affect TransCanada’s business risk profile through increased project execution risk, and would likely put pressure on financial metrics."
Original Post

Headline: Nebraska regulators "approve" Keystone XL; I haven't seen the story yet; the devil is in the details, as they say.

NFL-free Sunday night. Observations:
  • I did not watch the game but I watched the lead-in to see if NBC would televise the national anthem ceremony; the network did not; good move
  • in hindsight, everyone will agree -- even Jerry Jones, though he won't admit it -- that the Cowboys handled the Ezekial Elliot situation entirely wrong
  • final score: home-boy Carson Wentz defeated America's team 37 - 9
  • at the half, according to the box score, it was 7 - 9; and in the second half it was 30 - 9; yup, it appears that neither the Cowboys offense or defense came out of locker room for the second half, perhaps out of respect for Kaepernick
NASCAR race, championship yesterday: incredibly good race; I missed the opening (I might mention that later). It seems every "big name" that I know in NASCAR is retiring this year

Market: whoo-hoo! Essentially "everything" is up today. GE is already trading down another 25 30 cents. WTI - ouch!

Wells coming off confidential list today. See this post, also. Observations:
  • nine wells come off the confidential list today; five of them -- more than half, are SI/NC
  • of the four reporting, three are huge wells (one is really, really huge); and, the fourth will eventually be a great well
  • the Brooklyn oil field is a huge (wonderful) surprise
  • note the different amounts of proppants used in the two Brooklyn wells
  • another Hanover well comes off confidential list -- this will be an interesting pad to follow
  • look at the huge production in that HRC Fort Berthold well; t5/17; as of 9/17 had produced over 140K crude oil; moderate frack; Three Forks
Monday, November 20, 2017: 48 for the month; 85 for the quarter
  • 33178, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-155-96-1312H-7, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 22721, SI/NC, Nine Point Energy, Erickson 155-102-26-25-4H, Squires, no production data,
Sunday, November 19, 2017: 46 for the month; 83 for the quarter
  • 26976, 532, Oasis, Hanover Federal 5300 44-11 3T, Willow Creek, producing, a nice well; Three Forks first bench; 50 stages; 10.1 million lbs; see below; t5/17; cum 76K 9/17;
Saturday, November 18, 2017: 45 for the month; 82 for the quarter
  • 33177, SI/NC, Hess, BL-A Iverson-LE-155-96-1312H-1, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
  • 32976, SI/NC, BR, Dodge 3A TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,
  • 30094, 1,506, CLR, Olympia 4-2H1, Brooklyn, a good well; as much as 35K in one month; see below; Three Forks 1; 59 stages; 5.9 million lbs; t8/17; cum 43K 9/17;
  • 30093, 1,854, CLR, Olympia 5-27H, Brooklyn, a good well, as much as 40K in one month; see below, 59 stages; 9.2 million lbs; t8/17; cum 72K 9/17;
  • 29137, 2,421, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-36C-25-12H, McGregory Buttes, a great well; as much as 40 K in one month -- see below; Three Forks, 34 stages; 5.1 million lbs; t5/17; cum 141K 9/17;
  • 22722, SI/NC, Nine Point Energy, Erickson 155-102-26-25-3H, Squires, no production data, 
Active rigs:

Active Rigs563965186185

RBN Energy: producer efforts to optimize sand use, procurement, and delivery in Texas.