Thursday, March 19, 2020

Gasoline Demand -- March 19, 2020

Link here.

Enerplus' Cactus Pad

The wells:
  • 29819, 1,623, Enerplus, Rebutia 149-92-35B-05H, Heart Butte, t7/15; cum 474K 6/21;
  • 29788, 1,430, Enerplus, Cactus 149-92-35B-05H TF, Heart Butte, t7/15; cum 315K 6/21;
  • 29789, 2,028, Enerplus, Euphorbia 149-92-35B-05H, Heart Butte, t7/15; cum 444K 6/21;

  • 32985, 1,025, Enerplus, Desert Rose 149-92-35A-04H TF, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 282K 6/21;
  • 29790, 662, Enerplus, Saguaro 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 372K 6/21;
  • 31187, 571, Enerplus, Wooly Torch 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 271K 6/2;1
  • 31288, 903, Enerplus, Ocotillo 149-92-35A-04H, Heart Butte, t3/17; cum 384K 6/21;

Random Update On Activity In Heart Butte -- March 19, 2020

The WPX Nighthawk pad:
  • 36637, conf, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HY, Heart Butte,
  • 36636, conf, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HC, Heart Butte,
  • 36635, conf/ros, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HT, Heart Butte,
  • 36634, conf, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HD, Heart Butte,
  • 36799, conf, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HUL, Heart Butte,
The XTO FBIR Lawrence pad:
  • 36749, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26D, Heart Butte,
  • 36748, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26G, Heart Butte,
  • 36747, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C, Heart Butte,
  • 36746, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte,
  • 20143, 1,794, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26B, Heart Butte, t5/12; cum 428K 12/19; off line as of 12/19; remains off line 1/20;
  • 36745, conf/ros, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26EXH, Heart Butte,
  • 36744, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, Heart Butte,
  • 26970, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26E, Heart Butte, 
The graphic:

WTI Recovers A Bit; North Dakota Rig Count Drops To 52 -- March 19, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5266584732

Five new permits, #37457 - #37461, inclusive --
  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: Phelps Bay (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for a five-well USA pad in section 24-153-95, Phelps Bay; the pad is sited in section 24, Charlson oil field, but it appears the horizontals will run north into sections 13/12, in Phelps Bay (add these five to another three March 20, 2020).
  • 37456, SWD, CLR, LCU Asgard SWD, Long Creek, not sure if NDIC has changed their numbering system or if this was originally permitted as an oil & gas well; it's on confidential so will have to wait to find out;

Two Of Three White Butte Panzer Wells Have Just Gone Off Line -- March 19, 2020

Random notes from the Bakken:
  • Two of the three White Butte Panzer wells in section 20-151-94, Antelope-Sanish oil field have just gone off line. I don't see any activity in the area to suggest a reason. The Antelope-Sanish field is probably the best field in the North Dakota Bakken. 
  • An SHD well, permitted years ago, has finally been completed, and reporting:
    • 29568, 99, SHD Oil & Gas, Wiley 24-30H, Deep Water Creek Bay, t10/19; cum 64K in less than 2.5 months;
  • A QEP well in the Grail might be coming back on line; the well:
    • 27781, 2.055, QEP, TAT 1-35-26TH, Grail, t7/15; cum 47K 1/6; mostly off-line since 8/15; remains off line 6/19; after being off line since 6/18, this well is back on A status and had one day of production in 1/20;
  • Quick! What's a "rebutia"? Whatever it is, approaching 500K bbls of oil;

WPX Getting Ready To Frack Some Wolverine Wells? -- March 19, 2020

This may or may not mean anything but it got my attention. This well has just come off-line:
  • 21789, 1,908, Enerplus, Earth Lodge 148-93-22A-21H TF, South Fork, t8/15; cum 327K 1/20;
Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Looking at the map, there is a four-well pad of WPX Wolverine wells out to the west in DRL status with a rig-on-site. The wells are:
  • 37072, conf, WPX, Wolverine 22-22HY, South Fork,
  • 37071, conf/ros, WPX, Wolverine 22-22HC, South Fork,
  • 37070, conf, WPX, Wolverine 22-22HZ, South Fork,
  • 37069, conf, WPX, Wolverine 22-22HD, South Fork,

The Next Epidemic? March 19, 2020


June 27, 2020: for the archives.  

Original Post 

Coronavirus is officially an epidemic in many countries. Enough countries have declared coronavirus an epidemic that the disease it causes is now called a pandemic.

What is the definition of an epidemic in this country: for seasonal flu if the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 7.3% or greater, then by definition it's an epidemic.

How did "they" arrive at 7.3%. It has to do with the average number of cases over the years and the expected number of cases going forward. If the number of cases exceeds that forecast, in this case 7.3%, then seasonal flu will be considered an epidemic in the US.

I do not recall when "we" last exceeded the threshold for seasonal flu. For the past few months, when I've actually looked at the data (I really was not interested), I noted that the the percentage of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza as reported by the CDC was running pretty consistently, week-in and week-out at 6.9%.

In the most recent CDC weekly flu update, the number has jumped "significantly" (layman's terms) and is now at 7.1%. If it hits 7.3%, it's an epidemic.

Interestingly, for infants and children, it is an epidemic in the US but no one is talking about that. Another eight influenza-associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2019 - 2020 season were reported this week. The total for the season is 144, which I believe has set a modern day record, and, if not, is coming close.

Link here.

I assume that eventually we will see more childhood deaths due to coronavirus, but even in Italy, last time I checked, there had been no pediatric deaths.

Later: it never made sense to me why why children have been under-reported with coronavirus compared to adults, but now we're starting to get reports. Youngest is two years old, reported in Ohio: 

Meanwhile, Speaking of Italy and Coronavirus

Another link between the disease and Italy: Gucci.

A reader sent me this link.

My reply:
It is also interesting that one of the biggest US sectors outside of nursing homes? Hollywood. And who is more "fashion" than Hollywood?
But again, it's the 300,000 Chinese in northern Italy that probably is the best explanation: purses don't kill people, people carrying Wuhan flu do.


A reader sent me this recipe to take my mind off things, telling me it would cure almost any malady.

How Low Can We Go? Gasoline Below $1.20/Gallon; Jobless Claims Surge; ONEOK Delays ND Gas Plant Expansion -- March 19, 2020

Airlines: most of the world's airlines could by bankrupt by May, 2020. I did not read the story or check the source. 

Link here.

Jobless claims, link here:
  • prior: 211K
  • revised: --
  • forecast: 220K
  • actual: 281K
We'll have to go back to the Obama-day charts for comparisons. This is bad; not that this was unexpected but that the analysts so misread this. This is quite amazing they were so wrong on the "low" side -- I would have been less surprised had they been wrong on the "high" side. Makes me wonder about their tools?

Back to the Bakken

ONEOK delays expansion of Demicks Lake gas plant expansion and the Elk Creek pipeline. Link here.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5466584732

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Thursday, March 19, 2020: 44 for the month; 215 for the quarter, 215 for the year:
  • 36944, drl, CLR, LCU Jessie 4-24H1, Long Creek,
  • 35777, 2,160, Whiting, Anderson 34-21H, Glass Bluff, t9/19; cum 77K 1/20; 40 stages; 8.1 million lbs;
  • 31794, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-7C-31-1HS, Charlson, 
RBN Energy: crude oil market vaporizes; contango and storage plays take center stage. Archived.
Well, now we all know how it feels when the bottom falls out. In fact, it seems there is no bottom, with WTI crude at Cushing settling on Wednesday at $20.37/bbl, down $6.58/bbl.
There is no point in belaboring the sad story here.
You can read about pandemics, OPEC price wars and collapsed markets in every periodical on the planet. Likewise, there is no point in trying to predict what will happen next. Any pundit who tries to predict future prices in this environment is picking numbers out of the air at best.
But at RBN, we are energy market analysts. As such, we are compelled to analyze something. And in these market conditions, there is one thing we can hang our hat on: No matter how bad things get, hope springs eternal.
Thus, the market consensus is that things will be better a year from now, and even better a year after that. The implication? In a flash, crude is in steep contango, and that has repercussions for pipeline flows, regional price differentials and for storage — in production areas, at refineries, in VLCCs on the water, and especially at Cushing, OK, the king of oil storage hubs. Today, we examine one aspect of the chaos that now envelopes all aspects of energy markets.
Seventeen days ago — eons in COVID-19 time — we noted that CME/NYMEX WTI Cushing crude oil for April 2020 delivery had closed at $44.76/bbl, a decline of more than $16/bbl, or about 27%, since New Year’s Day. Well, prices have done a lot more free-falling since then. Figure 1 puts the earlier decline and more recent nosedive in historical context, showing daily WTI front-month futures prices since 1998.