Friday, March 24, 2017

Correlation Between Academic Scores In US and Births Paid For By Medicaid? -- March 24, 2017

Recently I posted US academic data (high school SAT scores).

Today, reports that a huge percentage of births in the US are paid for by Medicaid. North Dakota, by the way, is at the "right" end of the table on this one.

One wonders whether there is a correlation.

Waylon Jennings

A comment on Waylon Jennings from a YouTube video in which Waylon Jennings appears:
When Jessi Colter and Waylon Jennings looked at each other. ... there is more sensuality in their looks than any raunchy old porno. They were such a great fit together.
I just finished his son's book about life with Waylon and without Jessi he surely would not have lived past 45.
Everyone talks about John and June as a great love story ( and they were) but these two were just as great. People forget that Jessi literally put her career on the shelf to keep Waylon alive (his words). The fact that when he got clean he showered her with affection and praise. I just read that Waylon died on February 13. The very next day Jessi received a dozen roses at her door. How's that for a love story?

NCAA March Madness -- Sweet Sixteen -- March 24, 2017

Obviously this page was updated as the NCAA championship rolled along.

Last night (sweet sixteen): some close games but this was the stunner: Xavier (seeded 11th) took down Arizona (seeded 2nd), 73 - 71. At one point, late in the second, I think Arizona had a 7-point lead. One wonders whether a 3-point attempt at the end for the win was a better shot selection than a 2-point for the tie.

The other surprise, I suppose, to some extent, was how easily South Carolina beat Baylor.

Tonight (sweet sixteen):
  • North Carolina: easy win over Butler.
  • South Carolina (#7): easy win over Baylor (#3). 
  • Now, a #3 (UCLA) vs a #2 (Kentucky).
  • And, Wisconsin, #8, vs Florida, #4 -- but of course, the story here was Wisconsin beating the overall #1 Villanova to advance to the Sweet 16.  Wow, that was an incredible game.
Weekend (March 25/26) -- Elite Eight
  • Xavier (11) vs Gonzaga (1) [Later: Gonzaga rolls over Xavier; embarrassing.]
  • Kansas (1) vs Oregon (3) [Later: one more reason it's called March Madness. Incredible.]
  • S Carolina (7) vs FL (4)
  • N Carolina (1) vs KY (2)
Final Four:
  • South Carolina (7) vs Gonzaga (1)
  • Oregon (3) vs UNC (1)

Week 12: March 19, 2017 -- March 25, 2017

Whiting continues to report big Rolla Federal wells
Four EOG wells recently completed 
EOG with three more Liberty LR permits
Oasis with nine more Spratley permits
White Rock re-completes an old Red River well; targets the Stonewall
Trendwell re-completes an old Bakken well
Active rigs in North Dakota up to 50
Domestic terrorism along DAPL delays flow of oil by at least a week 
State Department approves Keystone XL application
Cost of sand going up
Bakken economy
North Dakota #1 in honey production -- for 13th year in a row

Busy, Busy Week -- We Finish The Week With 49 Active Rigs -- March 24, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4932100197187

One new permit:
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Bailey
  • Comments:
Two permits renewed:
  • NP Resources: a Roosevelt permit in Billings County
  • Whiting: a Niemitalo permit in Mountrail County
One permit canceled:
  • Marathon, a Post USA permit in Mountrail County
Whiting transferred one well to Foundation Energy:
  • 29562, Lardy 44-6, Golden Valley 
I had forgotten about Foundation Energy. From my "Bakken Operators":
Foundation Energy Management, LLC

Ryan-Trump Health Care Bill -- March 24, 2017

Danger zone! Dow plummets! Down 58 points at the close.

Highway to the Danger Zone, Kenny Loggins

Slawson's Torpedo Federal Wells -- March 24, 2017

The Wells

Twelve producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, t12/18; cum 178K after 41 days; cum 574K 2/20; off line 2/20; see this post;
  • 31277, 825, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 9H, t12/18; cum 238K 4/20; off line 3/20;
  • 31276, 2,942, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 8H, t12/18; cum 323K 4/20; off line 3/20;
  • 31275, 3,632, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 7H, t12/18; cum 304K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 31274, 3,205, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 6H, t12/18; cum 24K after 19 days; cum 271K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 31273, 2,254, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 5H, t12/18; cum 34K after 39 days; cum 218K 3/20; off line 4/20;
  • 31272, 1,090, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 4H, t12/18; cum 35K after 37 days; cum 233K 4/20; off line 4/20;
  • 31271, 1,109, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 3H, 33-061-03689, Big Bend, 10.8 million gallons of waer; 89% water, t12/18; cum 13K after 16 days; cum 208K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 31270, 1,523, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 2H, 33-061-03688, Big Bend, no production data, fracked 9/7/2018 - 9/15/2018; 6.9 million gallons of water; 89% water; t12/18; cum 19K after 29days; cum 173K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 31269, 1,857, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 1H, 33-061-03687, Big Bend, no production data, fracked 9/5/2018 - 9/12/2018; 5.9 million gallons; 89% water; t12/18; cum 18K after 27 days; cum 187K 3/20; off line 4/20;
  • 31289, 1,794, Slawson, Bandit Federal 1 SLH, t12/18; cum 29K after 34 days; cum 271K 4/20; off line 4/20;
  • 31279, 3,794, Slawson, Rebel Federal 1SLH, t12/18; cum 49K after 45 days; cum 426K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 18924, 1,361, runs south, parallels #31289 which runs north; was off-line for a month, 9/18; back on line 10/18; t2/11; cum 551K 4/20; off line 4/20; subtle, perhaps, increase in production when it came back on line;

June 10, 2020: most of the Torpedo Federal wells are off line, probably due to low oil prices.  Updated graphic:

October 28, 2018: update. It appears that all eleven wells have now been drilled to depth; ten of the eleven wells are on SI/NC status; the eleventh is on drl status. Note: there are twelve wells on this pad, but #31289 runs north; whereas the other eleven run south under the river/lake.

November 15, 2017;  I can't imagine anyone being interested, but this is the link to the environmental impact study Slawson provided during the permitting process. It will open as a PDF, probably on your desktop.

April 1, 2017: The Bismarck Tribune has a story on this multi-well pad

March 25, 2017: this is pretty amazing if "we're" talking about the same wells. But that would not make sense. Yesterday I just happened to come across these Slawson permits/wells. I was just scanning the map and somehow happened upon these wells. Nothing more to the story. Then a few minutes ago, I was reading the Williston Wire. I had received it some days ago but didn't get to it until now. And there it was: an article on the BLM approving a permit for Slawson to drill the first eight of 11 wells from a single pad. But then again, the wells below have already been issued a permit from NDIC so I assume "we're" talking about different eleven (11) wells. From the linked article:
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has completed its environmental analysis on a proposal to drill oil wells on private land within the Fort Berthold Reservation near Lake Sakakawea. 
With completion of this environmental analysis, the BLM will approve a permit for the Slawson Exploration Company to drill the first eight of 11 wells from a single well pad.
The well pad will be located approximately 800 feet from the lake, with the production facilities located three quarters of a mile away. 
Although the well pad and facilities will be located on private land, the BLM must issue an approved permit to drill the Federally-managed leases, which will be accessed through horizontal drilling.
But it sure sounds like the same set of wells: the production facilities will be located three-quarters of a mile away, same as the site below in the "original post."

If these are the same wells, and it appears they are, this appears to be the process: the NDIC issues a permit, but if the BLM has jurisdiction, the BLM also has to approve the NDIC permit.

Original Post

From a sundry form received September 23, 2016:
Slawson requests that the referenced wells be removed from confidential status. Slawson will instead request confidential status upon completion as allowed per rule Slawson estimates the drilling of these wells will commence in October, 2016, and last approximately 12 months. Our current plan is to drill the 10 Torpedo wells back-to-back before completion operations. Completion and clean out will last approximately 14 weeks. 
Some other notes from other correspondence:
  • the wells are currently planned to be drilled with a rig equipped with a closed-loop mud system and electric motors, which eliminates reserve pits, and greatly reduces noise and emissions
  • sound walls (32-feet in height) will be constructed and used during all drilling and completion activities
  • completion operations will use a lay-flat pipeline system to deliver fresh water to the well site that will eliminate 600 trucks per day
  • the production pad will be located offsite, approx one mile northeast
  • pad location was moved north from originally proposed site to allow a greater distance from the lake ... the new location increased the overall length of each wellbore, added to the cost of each well by $250,000 for the 2-mile laterals and $400,000 for the three-mile laterals due to additional cement, tubulars, and drill days (approximately $4 million added project cost)
Proposed APD conditions allowing operation "only during the winter months will have" considerable operating and cost effects. It would also extend the complete drilling program to take 3 - 4 years instead of the 14-month timeframe described in the BLM Torpedo Federal Environmental Assessment.

Note: a water truck typically carries 11,600 gallons of water. A completion requiring 7,000,000 gallons of water translates to 7,000,000/ 11,600 = 600 trucks. [Update: see first comment -- in ND, there is a weight limit which translates to 8,000 gallons max for water. 8,000,000 gallons / 8,000 gallons = 1,000 trucks for a rather average frack.]
X marks the spot(s). Five sections in this drilling unit. 5 x 640 = 3200 acres, all under the lake:

The horizontals will run north to south and will fan out as seen in the graphics below:

Mix of lengths for the laterals:

Nice graphic of the area to include the town of Parshall:

Minor Bakken Notes -- March 24, 2017

Whiting's Skaar Federal wells have been added to the "Monster Well" list.

Four EOG Wells Have Recently Been Fracked

These four EOG wells have been fracked (a fifth in the group was PNC'd); they were DUCs, now back on confidential list:
  • 27390, SI/NC --> conf, EOG, Parshall 69-1820H, Parshall; producing as of 1/17; FracFocus, API 33-061-02914: job start date, 10/29/2014; job end date, 12/18/2016; 9.338 million gallons of water; 79% water by mass; 21% sand by mass;
  • 27391, SI/NC --> conf, EOG, Parshall 68-1820H, Parshall; producing as of 1/17; FracFocus, API 33-061-02915: job start date, 10/28/2014; job end date, 12/19/2016; 7.371 million gallons of water; 81% water by mass; 19% sand by mass; 
  • 28402, SI/NC --> conf, EOG, Parshall 30-1820H, Parshall; API - 33-061-03110; producing as of 1/17;
  • 28404, SI/NC --> conf, EOG, Parshall 631-1820H, Parshall; API - 33-061-03112; producing as of 1/17;
  • 28402, PNC, API - 33-061-03111 
I am tracking #16971 at this site
Location of these wells:

Not news; for the archives. Trump administration approves federal application for Keystone XL pipeline. It's hard to believe but I had 49 episodes of "As The World Turns" following the Keystone XL story. The 49th episode is at this link.

A Note to the Granddaughters

Wow, talk about trivia. While reading Carthage Must Be Destroyed: The Rise and Fall of an Ancient Civilization, Richard Miles, c. 2010, I came across an interesting section on Gades (modern Cadiz). Many decades ago, while in the USAF, I spent some time at the naval station at Rota, Spain, across the bay from Cadiz. Very, very good memories. The US Navy treated us incredibly well. In fact, in all my years in the military, it was always the US Navy that treated me the best whenever I visited, even when I was a very, very junior officer.

But I digress.

From the book:
In the late eighth century BC the Tyrians (Phoenicians) set up a colony at Gades (modern Cadiz) ... Gades was not just a one-industry (metallurgy) town: it would also become famous for its garum, a strong-tasting sauce made out of decomposing mackerel mixed with vinegar, considered to be a great delicacy in the ancient world.
Then later in the book, in a section about Kerkouane, Kerkouanew as another ancient city located near Carthage, but it was destroyed and buried a long, long time ago. The author again brings up garum: the main industries of this settlement (Kerkouane) seem to have been salt-making, the manufacture of purple dye (many murex shells have been found on the site), and the production of garum.

And then again, in a discussion about western Morocco: an area particularly abundant in sea life and therefore a good place for the establishment of factories producing purple dye, salted fish and garum.

I knew I had recently seen "garum" before but I wracked my brain, trying to think where that was. Then when discussing this with Arianna last night, I remembered. I first heard of garum a few weeks ago while reading about the history of salt (notes at this post). Notes from chapter 4 of that book on the history of salt:
  • Chapter Four: Salt's Salad Days 
    • Romans 
    • most Italian cities were founded proximate to saltworks 
    • the Phoenicians (again); Sicilians; olives, tuna purple dye 
    • garum: possibly a generic term for fermented fish sauce; Romans used it much like Chinese used soy sauce after the fall of Rome, 
    • garum vanished from the Mediterranean 
So, garum comes from decomposing mackerel and was considered a delicacy in the ancient world.

And folks make jokes about lutefisk! LOL.

And for more trivia on murex/purple dye, see this post

The Market And Energy Page, T+63 -- March 24, 2017

Mega projects: from twitter -- analysts at GoldmanSachs note 2017-19 is “likely to see the largest increase in megaprojects production in history." Huge CAPEX, huge projects begun in 2012 - 2014 will start coming on line this year:
  • mega projects production in 2017 to 2019: "likely to see the largest increase in history"
  • record 2011 - 2013 CAPEX
  • CAPEX hit record in 2012: $660 billion
  • CAPEX continued to climb, hitting peak of $710 billion in 2014
  • projects could create a material oversupply in 2018 - 2019
  • IEA begs to differ: says a potential global supply deficit could take hold in 2020
  • lead time for these mega projects: 7 years (CAPEX began in 2011 - 2012 (oil at $100/bbl) and that oil could come to market in 2018 - 2019
Might we see gasoline below $1.00/gallon? 

Other News
Wind: oil majors plunge into industry that may hurt fossil fuel -- Bloomberg.
The oil companies have many reasons to move into the industry. They’ve spent decades building oil projects offshore, and that business is winding down in some areas where older fields have drained.
Returns from wind farms are predictable and underpinned by government-regulated electricity prices. And fossil fuel executives want to get a piece of the clean-energy business as forecasts emerge that renewables will eat into their market.

Even as oil production declined in the North Sea over the last 15 years, economic activity has been buoyed by offshore windmills. The notorious winds that menaced generations of roughnecks working on oil platforms have become a boon for a new era of workers asked to install and maintain turbines anchored deep into the seabed. 
About $99 billion will be invested in North Sea wind projects from 2000 to 2017. A decade ago, the industry had projects only a fraction of that size.
California refinery. From Reuters, data points:
  • Martinez, about 30 miles northeast of San Francisco
  • Royal Dutch Shell not eager to sell its last asset in California
  • Shell has been selling assets to pay down debt following its $54 billion purchase of smaller British rival BG Group last year
The Apple Page

Apple launches (PRODUCT)RED iPhone 7 and the new 9.7-inch iPad today. We were at the Apple store yesterday to buy May a new MacBook Air laptop. It was an incredibly easy and enjoyable experience.

We asked about the new 9.7-inch iPad. I've been waiting for this one. Sophia needs her own iPad. She is confused by all the different devices: some with touch screens, some without; some with keyboards, some without. This will end all her problems.

Apple lowered the price on the 9.7-inch iPad and improved it (ever so slightly) so it's a must for Sophia.

Yesterday, we were told the Apple store had the new iPad in the "back" but it would not be available for "one or two days." My hunch is it will be available today. 

The Political Page, T+63 -- March 23, 2017

US House vote on Ryan-Trump health care bill today.  [Later: well, that didn't happen.]

Starting The Day With 49 Active Rigs -- March 24, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4932100197187

RBN Energy: forecasting lease operating expenses in the E&P sector, part 3.