Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Tuesday, March 26, 2019, T+83, Part 4 -- STOP! In The Name Of Love

Japan: this is such an incredibly good article on so many levels. Japan is going back to coal, also. Along with China and India. Of course, China and India are given a pass when it comes to global warming; Japan not so much. To think that Japan will much success with solar or wind is crazy talk. And unlike California or Minnesota, Japan cannot set up transmission lines from other countries for renewable energy electricity.

Exhibit A: if we have less than twelve years to get started if we want to save the earth from global warming, why did not one US senator vote to pass a simple non-binding resolution? Not even the senator who co-sponsored the bill with Occasional-Cortex voted for the bill. I don't think I've ever seen such a lopsided vote on anything. It looks like a few Democratic senators must have "crossed the aisle" and voted with the GOP. I don't see what the big deal was: vote "yes" and move on. It was a non-binding resolution, and easily defended in any campaign: simply making a statement that "we" need to take action now to stop global warming. Voting "present" -- at least, I guess, we know they were hard at work in Washington, DC. Not only that, but apparently it was labeled a "test vote." LOL.

Stop! In the name of love.

Stop! In The Name Of Love, Diana Ross and The Supremes

Close, But No Cigar: WTI Closes Just Below $60-- March 26, 2019; API Reports A Nearly 2-Million Bbl Build

Energy demand in 2018: increased at almost double the average rate since 2010 Renewable energy not keeping up.

WTI closes just below. Barely. What was the API data? Link here. Maybe here? The latter link says API data shows crude stocks up 1.9 million bbls week-over-week. Oilprice calls it a "surprise" build (it seems it is always a "surprise" over at oilprice): a build of 1.93 million bbls. Oh, well, now we wait to the EIA data to be released tomorrow.
  • WTI: up over just under 2%; up $1.16; closed at $59.98
  • Brent: up just under 1%; up 65 cents; closed at $67.46
  • OPEC basket, not so much: closed down about 3/4th of a percent; down 48 cents; closed at $66.19
Back to the Bakken

Major flooding in the Bakken. Link here

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6859493299

Note: number of active rigs now compared with number of active rigs in 2016 and 2017.

Six new permits:
  • Operator: Slawson
  • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail County)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has permits for a 6-well Osprey Federal pad in Big Bend oil field in section 26-151-92 (It looks like these permits replace six permits previously canceled.)
Five permits renewed:
  • Oasis: five DomaLakes perits in Burke County renewed
One permit canceled:
  • Petro-Hunt: a USA permit in McKenzie County canceled

Tuesday, March 26, 2019, T+83, Part 3

Oh, oh, not good: IEA says carbon emissions hit record in 2018. Link here. Data points:
  • overall, the increase was a "modest" 1.7% year-over-year
  • problem: increasing coal capacity in Asia (see below); but China and India get a pass on emissions
  • but look at this: energy rose by 2.3% last year -- almost double the average annual rate for the period since 2010; but most of that demand met by energy sources other than coal and oil (that would be .... drum roll ... natural gas)
  • yup, and there it is -- natural gas was the fastest-growing energy source in 2018, accounting for almost 45% (which rounds to half) of the increased energy demand
  • oil demand also increased, but not so impressively
  • together fossil fuels covered some 70% of the higher energy demand; I'm shocked, shocked
  • renewable energy not keeping up; I'm shocked; I'm shocked
Cleaning out my in-box. Can't recall if this was posted earlier. Many sources suggest 2018 was a "huge" year for EVs. See link below the graphic.

It's interesting to note the profound drop in EV sales starting in 2014 and ending in 2016: those were the very same years that Saudi Arabia opened the spigots, hoping to kill the US shale industry by flooding the earth with inexpensive oil and inexpensive gasoline. 

January, 2019, update here.

And with more EVs, China is going to need more coal. Really? Yes, really. Link here.
Data released by the Chinese energy bureau this week shows that the country added a whopping 194 million tonnes of coal mining capacity over the course of 2018. This revelation comes in direct contrast with China’s widely publicized promises to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, especially dirty coal, as well as specific avowals to do away with excess mining capacity.
By the end of last year, according to numbers from the National Energy Administration, China’s total coal mining capacity had gone from 3.34 billion tonnes at the end of 2017 to 3.53 billion. These numbers do not even take into account a further 1.03 billion tonnes per year of already-approved coal capacity currently under construction, nor do they include another 370 million tonnes per year that are currently being extracted as part of a trial operation. What’s more, China’s National Energy Administration has already greenlighted an additional seven coal mining operations which altogether would have a capacity of million tonnes per year within a period of time which already started at the beginning of 2019.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019, T+83, Part 2

WTI: pops above $60; OPEC basket -- not so much --

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The market, looking good; not one equity on the watch list is down:
  • D: up 60 cents
  • Tesla, up a whopping $8; still traing below $270
  • XLNX, up $2.00, recovering profit-taking yesterday;
  • UNP, up 50 cents; essentially back to where it was at the opening yesterday
  • AAPL, up $2.64; so much for all that analyst negativity following the presentation yesterday
  • RDS-B, up 88 cents, more than recovering from yesterday's "sell-off"
  • CVX, up $1.32; nice;
  • COP, up almost 2%; nice
  • BRK-B, following the market up; but not much;
  • NOG, up sightly; trading at $2.70
  • OAS, up 2.7%; okay;
  • EOG, up almost 3%; still nowhere close to $100;
  • EW, in tune with the market; up a bit;
  • JAG, up 2%; trading at $10.69
Internet: EU approves sweeping copyright reform -- if similar law passed in US, I would have to shut down my blog. Just saying. It won't happen here. It will be interesting how major news and entertainment sites will be able to comply.

Heat wave. I remember growing up in North Dakota back in the 50s and 60s and reading/watching all those "heat wave" stories coming out of Chicago and NYC. After the 60s never saw those stories again. The Deplorable Climate Science Blog has a great "flashback" to the heatwave of 1910. That was just weather, not climate.

Well, which is it: meanwhile, The New York Times predicted both an ice-free Arctic and a new ice age -- in two different stories three days apart, back in 1969, the  year I graduated from high school. Pretty much neither one happened. I think that would be "climate," not weather. Could be mistaken.

Bjorn Lomborg's link has been updated.

The Netherlands: will start turning off natural gas supply. Should be fun to watch. Data points:
  • 8 million Dutch households
  • 7 million Dutch households hooked up to natural gas
  • this year: all new housing must be "gas-free"
  • 30,000 to 50,000 homes/year through 2022 will have their gas hook-ups removed
  • after that, 200,000 homes/year
  • analysis: at current house-build rates, this new law will make little difference to domestic gas consumption for decades to come
  • the UK government will have little choice but to follow the Dutch example and either cut off gas supplies to whole districts, ban the sale of gas boilers and cookers or tax gas out of existence.
Getting Ready For Summer

Sophia's swimming pool.

Details Regarding The Wells That Came Off Confidential List Today -- March 26, 2019

More details regarding the four wells that came off the confidential list today.
  • 34929, 396, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HZ, Squaw Creek, Three Forks, 50 stages; 8.5 million lbs, t2/19; cum --; geological summary not yet provided;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34795, 1,139, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 24-13 8H, Epping, 60 stages; 15.6 million lbs, t10/18; cum 122K 1/19;  spud date, May 26, 2018; TD, June 4, 2018; target formation, 42' thick; gas average 1,726 units during some sections; max daily gas of 4,006 units;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 34522, 535, EOG, Austin 424-1721H, Parshall, t9/18; cum 76K 1/19; spud date, June 30, 2018; TD, July 8, 2018; drilled 100% in zone;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

  • 30363, 2,446, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, Three Forks second bench, 60 stages; 14.1 million lbs, t1/19; cum 19K over 14 days; this is interesting -- the geological summary says this well targets the "second bench" of the Three Forks; the legal name of the well does not identify this as a "second bench well; within the Rocket prospect; "build rates ... would be required to land the curve .... near the base of the 19'-targeted interval, 28' below the top of the middle Bakken; this depth was unusual, and designed to land deep enough to drill underneath a lateral well segment with a path lying across the State Weydahl 6-36H"; drilling operations began September 3, 2015, and vertical operations were completed September 7th. Curve build began  early in the morning, September 8, 2015, and were completed that same evening. Significant de-collision drilling required (due to pre-existing lateral) -- this proved to be the greatest difficulty drilling this well. Early on, gas units of 2,000 and a flare of 5 - 10'. 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Tuesday, March 26, 2019, T+83

  • Occasional-Cortex: we have only twelve years to save the planet
  • the Turtle: let's vote on saving the planet today
  • Occasional-Cortex: we're not ready to start, yet; delay the vote; delay action to save the planet
  • what am I missing?
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

The market, futures look good.
  • AAPL: will recover its losses from yesterday
  • TSLA: will nearly recover its losses from yesterday
  • CVX: will have a good day
  • RDS-B: should have a nice day
  • NOG: will recover its losses from yesterday
Automobile Windshield Registration Tags

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Crude Production Is At All-Time Highs In The Bakken And The Niobara -- RBN Energy -- March 26, 2019

North Dakota: Sunday morning shopping ban repealed. Whoo-hoo! I wonder if this includes all retail or if some retail is still excluded. In Texas, car dealers are limited to one day / weekend.  Most dealers are closed Sundays. Liquor sales are banned on Sundays.
Top story over at oilprice: Saudis "admit" they will do anything "for" $70-oil. Today --
  • WTI, took a nice jump overnight: $59.72, up 1.53%; up 90 cents/bbl
  • Brent, a bit of a lift, to $67.41
  • OPEC basket: down $1.11, trading at $66.67 -- and you know what? Saudi has the wrong kind of oil, as does Mexico
Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Tuesday, March 26, 2019: 109 wells for the month; 329 wells for the quarter
  • 34929, 396, WPX, Plenty Sweet Grass 18-19HZ, Squaw Creek, t2/19; cum --;
  • 34795, 1,139, Kraken Operating, The Kraken 24-13 8H, Epping, t10/18; cum 122K 1/19;
  • 34522, 535, EOG, Austin 424-1721H, Parshall, t9/18; cum 76K 1/19;
  • 30363, 2,446, CLR, State Weydahl 6-36H, Corral Creek, t1/19; cum 19K over 14 days;
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6859493299

RBN Energy: crude shippers struggle with locking in down-the-Rockies pipeline space.
Crude production is at all-time highs in the Bakken and the Niobrara, and the latest pipeline-capacity expansions out of both regions have been filling up fast.
At the same time, producers in Western Canada are dealing with major takeaway constraints and are on the hunt for still more pipeline space. Midstream companies are trying to oblige, proposing solutions like a major Pony Express expansion or a new Bakken-to-Rockies-to-Gulf Coast fix — the Liberty and Red Oak pipelines — that could help address all of the above.
The catch is that, with multiple producing areas funneling crude along the same general eastern-Rockies corridor and the outlook for continued production growth uncertain, how’s a shipper to know whether to sign a long-term deal for some of the incremental pipe capacity now being offered? Today, we consider the need for new takeaway capacity, the potential for an overbuild scenario, and what it all means for producers and shippers.
It’s tough enough to determine how best to increase pipeline capacity between one production area and one destination market — the Permian and Corpus Christi, for example, or the Permian and Houston.
As we’ve seen recently, multiple pipeline projects in these distinct corridors were initially proposed, then a winnowing process of sorts has been occurring, with some projects advancing and others falling to the wayside. Things become even more complicated, though, when you’re dealing with a situation in which multiple producing areas are served by — and vying for space on — the same pipeline systems. Crude flows from one production area through (or nearby) another — and then another — on its way to a number of possible destinations.
That’s the case along the eastern Rockies, where crude works its way down from Western Canada, the Bakken, and the Niobrara’s Powder River Basin (PRB) and Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin on its way to either the Midwest, the Midcontinent or the Gulf Coast. Put another way, Niobrara shippers are affected by production trends, pipeline capacity and pipeline utilization upstream and downstream of them — if pipes come down to Wyoming and Colorado filled to the brim, the opportunities to add PRB and D-J barrels to the systems diminish.
Flashback: from The Center of the American Experiment, September 25, 2018 --
The world already knew North Dakota has enough oil left in the ground to traumatize climate activists for decades. But come on.

The latest estimate of oil reserves under our westerly neighbor truly defies the imagination. Not to mention the U.S. government’s official calculations. The fracking company that’s led the way in developing the state’s reserves even rocked attendees with the news at an industry meeting covered by the Fargo Forum.

Continental Resources estimates that the Bakken Formation has reserves of 30 billion to 40 billion barrels of recoverable oil, or roughly four to five times more than the government’s latest estimate.

“It’s a big number but I think it’s a technically sound and a technically well-founded number,” [CLR/CEO] said. “There’s a lot of future left in the Bakken.”

Official government estimates put North Dakota’s oil reserves at just under 8 billion barrels. But the frackers on and under the ground say the state has the potential to rival some other nations.

North Dakota recently surpassed Venezuela in oil production, and the United States recently became the world’s largest oil producer, outranking Saudi Arabia and Russia.

North Dakota has 15,000 oil wells, and state officials estimate it has the potential for another 50,000 wells in the decades ahead.