Friday, June 14, 2024

Amazing Amazon -- June 14, 2024

Locator: 47855AMAZON.

Updates

June 15, 2024: Amazon's AWS, link here.

Original Post 

I'm visiting and staying with our younger daughter in Portland, OR, for a few days. I needed a couple of items (handkerchiefs and instant coffee) and simply ordered them from Amazon yesterday; they arrived today. With Amazon Prime, no minimum order. 

Absolutely amazing.

At home, our shopping list is getting shorter and shorter. As soon as my wife mentions we need something -- just before I left, it was Bounty, the better-picker-upper -- or as soon as I realize I need something, I don't put it on the shopping list if I can order it from Amazon. 

My wife thanked me a couple of days ago when a year's supply of Bounty paper towels arrived at the door. Just kidding -- not a year's supply but a whole lot more than I would have bought at the local Walmart had I gone simply because it's a pain to carry so many rolls of paper towels.

Absolutely amazing. 

I honestly don't know why "everyone" doesn't have Amazon. One doesn't have to subscribe / pay for Amazon Prime to get free shipping. 

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Amazon Prime Video

Speaking of Amazon. 

Link here.

We have Amazon Prime and we love Amazon Prime Video -- which is "free" with Amazon Prime.


From the linked article:

The streaming ad market was upended earlier this year when Amazon converted its entire Prime Video subscriber base to a new ad-supported version, giving customers a chance to switch back to ad-free streaming for an extra $2.99 a month.
Prime Video’s large ad-supported subscriber base means it has a significant amount of ad inventory that is affecting the negotiations that Netflix, YouTube, TV networks and other streamers are having with advertisers as they commit to buying billions of dollars in commercial time for the coming TV season—a process known as the “upfronts.”
The e-commerce company is driving down ad prices for everyone, analysts and ad buyers said.

I gladly pay the $2.99 / month. It was a no-brainer. One cup of Starbucks.

Amazon is amazing.

Someday, it will be interesting to read how Amazon prices "buy" and "rent" videos. It must be absolutely fascinating.

***********************
EVs -- Can You Afford The Insurance?

Link here.

From the linked article:

In the U.S., the average severity of a claim for a repairable EV was $6,066 in the first quarter, nearly 30% higher than for internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles, according to Mitchell, which provides software and data to auto insurers and the collision-repair industry.
Car-rental agency Hertz , which in 2021 announced its plan to buy 100,000 Teslas, sending both its stock and that of the automaker higher on the news, has reversed course this year.
The company cited the “damage expense associated with EVs” in its January decision to sell a third of its EV fleet.
Part of that cost can be the greater work involved: over three mechanical labor hours on average for a repairable EV claim estimate, versus less than two for ICE vehicles, according to Mitchell data. Mechanics sometimes have to de-energize electric vehicles before removing their high-voltage batteries to avoid damaging them during repairs, Mitchell said.
There may be behavioral driving changes, too. EVs naturally have more torque, which means that their electric motors can instantly deliver power to the transmission. Some insurers worry that faster acceleration from traffic lights could lead to more accidents, though some reviews have also found that EVs are less frequently involved in insurance claims.

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Sports

NHL Stanley Cup: Florida one game from the Cup and a sweep.

NBA championships: Dallas finally wins one, 122 - 84, and now it's onto game 5.

PGA US Open: holy mackerel, Scottie Scheffler barely made the cut; +5. Bryson is in second place along with two others; Rory in fifth place, tied with two others. The leader is at -5, meaning Scottie is ten strokes behind the leader. Scottie's first round, one over; his second round was atrocious. Not one birdie, but two bogies and one double-bogie. I guess it's tough when the LIV folks (Bryson) come to play.

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That "Bump Stock" Ruling

I hate the ruling -- the US Supreme Court's ruling -- but now that I've read The WJS op-ed on the ruling, I feel much more comfortable.

As should everyone, on either side of the issue, who can read at the 8th grade level or greater.

Interestingly, it took Judge Alito to explain the court's reasoning. Something I've been saying for years, on many issues, not just gun issues.

***********************
Duolingo

Link here.

In October, I'll have completed four years of Duolingo/Spanish without missing one day, if things continue the way they have been. As is it, three-years-+ streak of Duolingo. 

And the writer of the linked article has it exactly right:


From the linked article:

So why are you always opening the ones from Duolingo? 

It’s not just because you’re intrinsically motivated. It’s mostly because behind that cartoon owl named Duo is a large team of engineers, researchers, strategists and product managers giving you that extra push. 

The best way to learn a language is getting in the habit of daily practice, and the best way to form that habit is getting a well-timed nudge, which makes streaks and notifications essential to Duolingo’s surprising business success.

I wrote an entire book about the power of streaks, but I’ve never come across an example of streaks as powerful as Duolingo.

Humans are so wired to look for streaks that we see them even where they may not exist. Duolingo takes our propensity for streaks and turns it into a motivational tactic. It turns out people are willing to do all sorts of peculiar stuff if they have the incentive of a streak—like sneaking out of a bar right before midnight to speak a few minutes of Japanese.

The longest active Duolingo streak is now longer than 4,100 days. The only thing more impressive than a few people using the app every day for more than a decade is that five million people have streaks of a year. In fact, the company says that more than 70% of the product’s more than 30 million daily active users have weeklong streaks.

Those numbers are especially notable because of Duolingo’s competition: everything you can do on a phone that doesn’t require verb conjugation. 

That is absolutely true. I absolutely obsess about keeping my streak. I go to Duolingo at least two times more than I need to each day just to ensure I keep my streak. You only have to go to Duolingo once each day to keep your streak alive, so I hit the site at least three times daily. One can finish a Duolingo lesson in less than five minutes. I often get a Duolingo lesson completed standing in line at my least favorite standing-in-line-store: Target.

By the way, the only "non-tech" app / site Tim Cook mentioned in the WWDC keynote presentation was Duolingo. Pretty impressive. Not Babel. Not Rosetta Stone. Not any others.

The Book Page -- June 14, 2024

Locator: 47854BOOKS.

My father's day present to myself!

The book page, after a very, very busy week.

From a "friends of the library" outlet, each book was $2 to $3 each; total for these four books, $10 exactly.

The books:

  • The Politics of Aristotle, translated with an introduction, notes and appendixes, Ernest Barker, c. 1958, withdrawn 6/24.
  • The War That Killed Achilles: The True Story of Homer's Iliad and the Trojan War, Caroline Alexander, c. 2009, withdrawn 2/24.
  • The Greek Myths, Complete Edition, Robert Graves, c. 1955, 1960, withdrawn 6/24.
  • Letters to J.D. Salinger, edited by Chris Kubica and Will Hochman, c. 2002, withdrawn 6/24.

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Thoughts

Starting put some things together.

Week 23: June 3, 2024 -- June 9, 2024

Locator: 47853TOPSTORIES.

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Week 24: June 10, 2024 -- June 16, 2024

Locator: 47852TOPSTORIES.

Top story

  • US S&P 500 and NASDAQ markets surge.

Top international energy story:

Top international non-energy story

Top national non-energy story

  • Tesla shareholders vote to restore CEO's pay package; now the court will decide again. 
    • A new norm for the US: the courts to decide pay packages for CEOs.

Top national energy story

Top North Dakota non-energy story

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Four New Permits -- June 14, 2024

Locator: 47851B.

From oilprice today:

This will be the third time this story is being pursued by Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia did this once before. From June 29, 2021: it was a trillion-dollar mistake. Back in 2014 - 2016. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $78.45.

Active rigs: 39.

Four new permits, #40838 - #40841, inclusive:

  • Operators: Formenter Operations (3); MRO 
  • Fields: Larson (Burke); Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Formentera Operations has permits for four three LARI wells, SESW 23-162-94, 
      • to be sited 450 FSL and at 1675 FWL; 1745 FWL; and 1710 FWL, respectively;
    •  MRO has a permit for a Sheehan well, SESE 21-146-93, 
      • to be sited 558 FSL and 622 FEL;

Three permits renewed:

  • BR, three Kellogg permits, Elidah oil field, McKenzie County;

Two permits canceled:

  • Whiting (2): a P Earl Rennerfeldt permit, Stockyard Creek, Williams County; and, an Armas permit, Sanish, Mountrail

Headlines -- Friday, June 14, 2024

Locator: 47850ARCHIVES.

Gasoline demand:


Second Amendment: US Supreme Court strikes down the Trump "bump stock" ban. Overwhelming majority, 6-3. 
  • just think,
    • three Trump appointees
    • three Bush II appointees
    • three Clinton / Obama appointees

No recession: Business Insider, Steve Eisman, "The Big Short."

Covid: a Reuters exclusive -- 
  • Philippines
  • US DOD psyops
  • a little something for everyone
  • certainly answers the vaccine's "effectiveness" question
Editor
  • Judith Jones revolutionized American cookbook publishing, NY Times, June 13, 2024. Link here.
  • Earlier review, NY Times, May 24, 2024, updated June 14, 2024. Link here.
  • Amazon book: link here.
The big concern for me today: the status of the "sixth extinction." The original post.
  • sixth extinction: the frogs
  • a google search for news, update suggests it's getting more severe faster than expected
  • link here: wow, an exceptionally poor article for Axios.
  • generally accepted: 8.7 million species on earth
  • current "extinction event": could lose upwards of one million species
  • number of frog species: 7,000 and counting
  • one of my favorite memories: frog legs in Germany
  • time for coffee 

Director's Cut -- April, 2024, Data

Locator: 47850B.

Director's Cut to be released today
: April, 2024, data. Finally posted after a long delay, and now I've lost my interest (3:51 p.m. CDT). 

WTI: $78.73.

Sunday, June 16, 2024: 65 for the month; 129 for the quarter, 328 for the year
40094, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 6B,

Saturday, June 15, 2024: 64 for the month; 128 for the quarter, 327 for the year
40093, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 5T,
39225, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-4,

Friday, June 14, 2024: 62 for the month; 126 for the quarter, 325 for the year
40092, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 4B,

Refinery distillation units separate crude oil into light, medium and heavy fractions. After that, refiners start performing chemical reactions using catalysts — materials that accelerate chemical reactions — to change the oil’s natural molecules into the forms needed in modern fuels. In recent years, refiners have stepped up their efforts to recycle those catalysts to improve their profitability and environmental performance. In today’s RBN blog, we explain how catalysts, which were formerly disposed of as hazardous waste, are increasingly being recycled and reused in refineries. 

A 14-Year-Old MRO Well Has Second Jump In Production -- June 13, 2024

Locator: 47849MRO.

The well:

  • 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 619K 10/21; off line. Note jump in production back in 2017, nine years after this well was first drilled; cum 729K 4/24;

Jump in production for the second time, 2022, for a well drilled back in 2008:

BAKKEN7-20223111187110912008217391170510
BAKKEN6-2022309762970218624104451011354
BAKKEN5-20222781078045196224610438228
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20220000000
BAKKEN1-20220000000
BAKKEN12-20210000000
BAKKEN11-20210000000
BAKKEN10-202132019031845170482
BAKKEN9-202125206722131176431004010
BAKKEN8-202130242622401339502504703

Jump in production back in 2017, when the well was almost ten years old:

BAKKEN12-2017311662416674673728731267721795
BAKKEN11-2017302043520512791431578269984421
BAKKEN10-20173129014287311159736537517831175
BAKKEN9-20173032893331641365441385655534659
BAKKEN8-20173118678184571494523587335620047
BAKKEN7-20172929243292222040036800332233317
BAKKEN6-201716165411640464252081786919855
BAKKEN5-2017100130000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-2017102746961352180176
BAKKEN2-2017289439182537720605
BAKKEN1-201731108113932908750695

Initial production back in 2008:

BAKKEN2-20092435243170148226222620
BAKKEN1-20093134703762413210921090
BAKKEN12-200826660965781210202420240
BAKKEN11-20083043434259607277227720
BAKKEN10-20082810473104963448610761070
BAKKEN9-20082036053254152000

An MRO Forsman Well In Antelope-Sanish Is Trending Toward 800K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- June 13, 2024

Locator: 47848MRO.

The well:

  • 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope-Sanish, t12/17; cum 755K 4/24;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH4-2024303019304026862158221122199
SANISH3-2024293142307025512093520454225
SANISH2-2024293948396532772116420597361
SANISH1-2024294293432626952274121971492
SANISH12-2023314644462627982036819727437

Initial production back in 2017:

SANISH8-201828176071751721684245231073212241
SANISH7-20182511130112491948817302104406061
SANISH6-20181814040140946159344952122112147
SANISH5-201831332323329712528771205242722533
SANISH4-201830393543945713469798334347034137
SANISH3-201831506305038416581909935574033448
SANISH2-20181219138196068472354322080214509
SANISH1-2018315981460012236481052973839466603
SANISH12-2017318086879866124031060681385891959