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McDonald's
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McDonald's App as good as it gets.
With the possible exception of the Iran war, there is no topic we’ve written about more in recent months than the situation in Venezuela, where the early signs of an oil-industry rebound can be seen, although plenty of unknowns remain about the country’s political and economic future. It’s only been five months since the removal of President Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces. Whether the country once again becomes a safe place for long-term investment — especially the tens of billions of dollars needed to revitalize the industry — remains highly uncertain, but crude oil production and exports are rising, with many of those barrels finding their way to U.S. refiners. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how Venezuelan crude oil exports to the U.S. have increased since the beginning of the year, how the U.S. import slate has changed over that time, and preview our latest Drill Down Report.
In previous blogs (and our first Drill Down Report of 2026, Round and Round), we’ve gone over Venezuela’s history and extensive reserves, the type of crude it produces, and the steps it could take to boost production in the short, medium and long term. In today’s blog, we turn our focus to how things have changed this year, as exports of Venezuelan crude oil have rebounded sharply. Shipments bottomed out near 100 Mb/d in early January (see Figure 1 below) following a steep December decline, then recovered to roughly 500-550 Mb/d by late January. After holding relatively flat through February, exports climbed to around 1.1 MMb/d in March before spiking to around 1.4 MMb/d in April and have hovered around 1 MMb/d since then. As noted in our new report, the rebound reflects a mix of policy and market shifts. The Trump administration replaced sanctions with a looser framework that allows more structured sales, opening the door for new buyers. Venezuelan crude has returned to the U.S. market and Indian refiners have stepped in as key customers, taking barrels that previously moved largely to China.
