Thursday, April 14, 2022

Third Day Of Global Warming Keeps NDIC Offices Closed -- No Daily Activity Report -- April 14, 2022

The sports page:

  • Texas girls soccer state championship
  • semifinals: Olivia's Grapevine team wins 6 - 3
  • finals: Saturday, April 16, 2022
    • opponent: Wakeland (Frisco); perennial favorite
  • with win at semi-finals, Grapevine moved up eight spots in the national ranking 
    • now ranked #18 nationally

National ranking:

  • #1: Bartram Trail (St Johns), Florida
  • #2: Oak Ridge (El Dorado Hills), CA
  • #3: St Mary's Dominican (New Orleans
  • #4: Creekside (St Johns (Florida)
  • #5: Redondo Union (Redondo Beach) CA
  • #6: Southlake Carroll (Southlake), TX

Texas ranking:

  • #1: Southlake Carroll (Southlake), TX
  • #2: Marcus (Flower Mound), TX
  • #3: Prosper, TX
  • #4: Allen, TX
  • #5: Dripping Springs, TX
  • #6: Ridge Point (Missouri City), TX
  • #7: Grapevine, TX -- headed to Finals, April 16, 2022
  • #8: Keller, TX
  • #9: Wakeland (Frisco), TX -- headed to Finals, April 16, 2022
  • #10: Westlake (Austin), TX

Copyright photo from the semi-finals game, so I will post it but remove it soon. Link here. Olivia, #23.

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Back to the Bakken

Pricing:

  • Brent: $111.70
  • WTI: $107.00
  • Natural gas: $7.30

Active rigs:

$107.00
4/14/202204/14/202104/14/202004/14/201904/14/2018
Active Rigs017346361

Getting Ready For Some Biking -- April 14, 2022

The lure of socialism, link here

The sports page

  • the NBA brackets. Still two one-game play-in games left, before we get to the "real deal."
  • NASCAR races this weekend; Easter weekend;

Natural Gas Melting Up; Working Gas In Storage Could Hit New Five-Year Minimum -- April 14, 2022

EVs: the new gas guzzlers.

  • use electricity (obviously)
  • most of electricity in US is generated by fossil fuel;
  • now, the ugly truth: the US EVs are getting bigger and bigger, using more and more fossil fuel, especially natural gas
  • link here;

Natural gas: up almost 3%; up 20 cents; trading at $7.20.

Link here

It sure looks like we are about to hit a new five-year minimum. 

Early Morning Economic Indicators -- April 14, 2022

Stagflation, three components:

  • high inflation
  • slow growth
  • high unemployment: the third component is main focus for the Brits

Jobless claims, today:

  • held near multi-decade lows
  • still near a 54-year low set earlier this month;
    • 185,000 vs 170,000 expected
    • prior week revised to 167,000
  • continuing claims
    • 1.475 million vs 1.500 million expected
    • 1.523 previous week
  • most interesting:
    • prior week revised to 167,000
    • compared to 218,000 new claims filed per week throughout 2019 before the pandemic

Russia: indications that banking sanctions are starting to bite

  • Putin agrees to give customers additional time to meet payment deadlines
  • not doing it to "be nice"; he needs the cash; rather have delays than non-payments
  • again, western sanctions:
    • immediate: sanctions on banking
      • assets frozen; 
      • removed from international banking system
    • short-to-medium term: sanctions on oil purchases
    • long term: sanctions on western technology to keep energy sector working
    • nothing new here; all previously posted.

Headlines From All Over -- April 14, 2022

Russell Wilson: forever, apparently, is not forever. Traded to Denver Broncos after ten seasons. 

Putin's War:

  • says Russia needs infrastructure for energy exports to East. Link here.
  • that would be correct, but that takes a lot of capital
  • payments for natural gas already falling behind; one reason: bank transfers.

US refined product exports soar to record high. Link here.

  • 6.8 million bpd, week ended April 8, 2022
  • up from a robust 5.9 million b/d the previous week;
  • weekly export number was 400,00 b/d higher than the previous record set early April, 2021;
  • Russian invasion set off a global scramble to find replacement for Russian oil products.

Global refiners:

  • China to surpass US as world's top refiner this year; link here;
  • China: to reach 18.8 million b/d capacity;
  • US: approximately 18 million b/d capacity;

NY attorney general launches investigation into gasoline price gouging.

  • this will not end well;
  • already not enough jet fuel in the northeast;
  • an investigation isn't going to help;

Buzz: natural gas at $12? If that happens .... watch out, NE ISO.

Clearing Out The Other In-Box -- April 14, 2022

Republican governor did this, link here:

Putin's War: loss of equipment in first four weeks

Loss of hardware: add one flagship battleship

Ukraine: previously posted. Why the Ukraine "army" did so well. Ukraine transformed its rigid Soviet-style military into a Westernized force where soldiers think on the move through years of NATO classes, drills, and exercises. Previously posted.

Earnings Calendar -- Estimates -- One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- April 14, 2022

Elon Musk: how did US intel reach the soldier in the field? SpaceX sent Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine. Link here

Link here. TSM and banks.

TSM: beats. Shares rise.

TWTR: Elon Musk is serious about an all-cash deal for twitteer.

Meta: 50% vs Apple, 30%. Previously posted

*************************
Back to the Bakken

Bakken deals: Rigzone recap

Active rigs:

$103.00
4/14/202204/14/202104/14/202004/14/201904/14/2018
Active Rigs017346361

Thursday, April 14, 2022: 26 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 185 for one year

  • 37266, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 5B, Willow Creek,

RBN Energy; IEA charts a course through oil market turmoil, but does it go anywhere?

Increases in crude oil and gasoline prices have caused widespread concern in recent months, made worse after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that added even more uncertainty to the market. With the average U.S. price for regular gasoline now topping $4/gal — nearly 50% above where it was a year ago — the rising fuel costs have been especially painful for everyday drivers and threaten to slow or derail a global economy still recovering from the pandemic-induced recession. Government officials in the U.S. and elsewhere, while urging oil producers to ramp up output, have turned to their strategic reserves as a way to quickly balance the market and rein in prices. In today’s RBN blog, we look at the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest announced release from oil reserves, how the global drawdowns are intended to create a bridge to when increased production comes online, and the skepticism about whether those plans will work out as intended.

******************************
Initial Production

The well:

  • 37266, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 5B, Willow Creek:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222394629946
1-20222852727594
12-20213322228957
11-20213123633305
10-20212395524946

Fascinating -- April 14, 2022

Link here. This just popped up in yesterday's twitter feed. Look at the date of this "breaking news article": May 17, 2021, about a year ago.

The Daily Mail posts this story like it's something new. It's been going on for years. Decades? 

Link here.

Truly amazing: do a google search -- every article goes back to one report published on/about May 17, 2022.

Fascinating.

T -- WBD -- April 13, 2022

Up 11%.


Warner Bros Discovery now owns CNN and CNN+.

ISO New England -- Maine -- Why Maine Has Failed To Meet Its Ambitious Wind Power Goals --April 14, 2022

Link here, from a reader, thank you.

  • NE ISO: demand generally 12,000 to 16,000 MW
  • note article:
    • goal: 3,000 MW capacity
    • actual: 1,000 MW capacity
    • nameplate capacity: 1,000 MW
    • actual: 250 MW
    • 250 / 16,000 =  1.6%
    • in line with projections and data provided by EIA
  • largest wind farm in the state: Bingham Wind Farm
    • 56 turbines
    • 186 MWs: nameplate capacity
    • actual: 46 MWs; about a MW per turbine

********************************
On Their Way To State

Grapevine's Lady Mustangs Soccer Team on their way to Texas state semi-finals championship game Thursday.

Finals on Saturday,


High school booster club send-off:

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- April 14, 2022

Link here

It sure looks like we are about to hit a new five-year minimum. 

***************************
Biking In The Rain

Notes From All Over -- April 14, 2022

 NY Times WORDL today:

Wordle 299 3/6

⬜⬜🟨🟨⬜
⬜⬜🟨🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Days supply, crude oil: increases from 26 days to 26.7 days; link here;

  • and crude oil surges;

EVs margins: the other day I noted that EV margins were marginal at best; much worse than ICE

  • who agrees that EV margins are not where they need to be? link here.
  • spoiler alert: Ford CEO
  • again, I ask the question: if EVs are such a great deal for automobile manufacturers why are they all partnering with each other
  • spoiler alert: hedging their bet; same reason oil companies have joint venture when drilling multi-billion-dollar plays; this is not rocket-science

PBR goes ex-dividend today, chart:

  • P/E: 5
  • yield: 18.6%
  • 52-week high: $16.09
  • yesterday's close: $15.96

US crude oil build of 9 million bbls: an anomaly.

Amazon: sold 40-year notes at 4.1% pre-tax interest rate; link.

  • for every $1.00 it borrowed, it will still be paying 4.1 cents of interest in 40 years;
  • what will the FCF yield be in 2062 on the $1.00 in proceeds that Amazon used to buyback shares?
  • massive accretion over time

Wuhan flu: Shanghai bans private cars on roads to stem Covid surge.

  • I can't make this up; link here.
  • maybe "law" won't apply to those wearing masks and driving an EV;

Wuhan flu: great lock down graphics, link here;

Natural gas graphic on which utilities and stakeholders rely, link here:

  • natural gas is currently more expensive that any point in any EIA scenario for the next 30 years:
  • predictions, natural gas price at these scenarios:
    • $6.90, low oil and gas supply;
    • $3.90, high oil price
    • $3.90, low oil price
    • $3.00, high oil and gas supply
  • natural gas today: $7.00
  • can't make this stuff up;

What's wrong with this picture? This graphic.

  • nothing
  • the dot.com frenzy was just early;
  • the internet fundamentally changed the world;
    • there have never been better scalable businesses that created so much value for so many customers:
      • Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon, Netflix

Texas: natural gas power demand hits 11-year low, link here:

  • wind power
  • high natural gas prices

GasBuddy has jumped the shark; note at except for cash, the price changes were inconsequential:
and even the "cash price: was inconsequential:

  • regular, cash: from $4.63 to $4.55 (whoo-hoo; a 1.7% drop on almost 5-handle gasoline)
  • regular credit: $4.69, no change
  • plus: $5.19, no change
  • V-Power: $5.69, no change
  • diesel: $4.99, no changee
  • has GasBuddy become a tool of the Biden administration;
  • what a doofus;

NATO: new members, Sweden and Finland; link here.

  • meanwhile, diplomats still looking to crossing "t's" and dotting "i's" on Ukraine's application
  • can't make this stuff up

Graph of the day, the Putin Price Hike, link here.

Got Snow? North Dakota -- April 13, 2022

Link here.

For newbies:

  • although it gets cold, North Dakota is not known for lots of snow;
  • this is April
  • North Dakota needed the moisture badly due to drought conditions for past year;
  • farmers got their spring wheat crop in before the blizzard
  • all's good here
  • it was worse in 1936
  • nothing is so bad, it can't get worse

Great Example Of Asymmetric Warfare -- April 14, 2022

Links to Russian Black Sea flag ship being sunk:

Miscellaneous Notes On Crude Oil -- Mid-Week -- Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Updates

April 14, 2022: how did US intel reach the soldier in the field? SpaceX sent Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine. Link here

Original Post

Russia:

  • major crude trading houses are set to slash their purchases of Russia crude oil and crude products starting mid-May
  • the operative word is "slash"
  • link to Julianne Geiger; source: anonymous Reuters sources.
  • this will be a one-two punch
    • the first punch will be direct: a decreased purchase of Ruritanian oil (for multiple reasons)
    • the second punch will be indirect: lack of western technology will constrain Ruritanian oil production
    • a third punch, of course, is the ability to move money between Ruritania and western banks
  • if Ms Geiger posted this story at 4:30 p.m. CDT, it was obviously by traders much earlier in the day; as that news trickled out, that explains the sudden jump in the price of Brent and WTI today, Wednesday, April 13, 2022;
  • one can assume the White House was monitoring the situation

Ruritania:

  • asymmetric warfare;
  • without question, the most important aspect of asymmetric warfare is intelligence;
  • link here;
  • US is moving to significantly expand the intelligence it provides to Ukraine

Comical:

  • this was reported the other day: excluding Ruritania, oil output from the rest of the rest of the world (not US) is set to rise by 3.9 million bpd from March, 2022, to December, 2022.
    • OPEC+ up by 1.9 million bopd
    • non-OPEC+ up by 2.0 million bopd
    • US: up by 1.27 million bopd
  • source: IEA
  • when I first saw that, I had three thoughts:
    • surely, they're joking;
    • what was I missing? and,
    • inshallah.
  • Well, it turns out I wasn't the only one who thought this was a joke
  • I suppose anything's possible but the tea leaves suggest otherwise.
  • Inshallah.