Thursday, April 14, 2022

Miscellaneous Notes On Crude Oil -- Mid-Week -- Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Updates

April 14, 2022: how did US intel reach the soldier in the field? SpaceX sent Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine. Link here

Original Post

Russia:

  • major crude trading houses are set to slash their purchases of Russia crude oil and crude products starting mid-May
  • the operative word is "slash"
  • link to Julianne Geiger; source: anonymous Reuters sources.
  • this will be a one-two punch
    • the first punch will be direct: a decreased purchase of Ruritanian oil (for multiple reasons)
    • the second punch will be indirect: lack of western technology will constrain Ruritanian oil production
    • a third punch, of course, is the ability to move money between Ruritania and western banks
  • if Ms Geiger posted this story at 4:30 p.m. CDT, it was obviously by traders much earlier in the day; as that news trickled out, that explains the sudden jump in the price of Brent and WTI today, Wednesday, April 13, 2022;
  • one can assume the White House was monitoring the situation

Ruritania:

  • asymmetric warfare;
  • without question, the most important aspect of asymmetric warfare is intelligence;
  • link here;
  • US is moving to significantly expand the intelligence it provides to Ukraine

Comical:

  • this was reported the other day: excluding Ruritania, oil output from the rest of the rest of the world (not US) is set to rise by 3.9 million bpd from March, 2022, to December, 2022.
    • OPEC+ up by 1.9 million bopd
    • non-OPEC+ up by 2.0 million bopd
    • US: up by 1.27 million bopd
  • source: IEA
  • when I first saw that, I had three thoughts:
    • surely, they're joking;
    • what was I missing? and,
    • inshallah.
  • Well, it turns out I wasn't the only one who thought this was a joke
  • I suppose anything's possible but the tea leaves suggest otherwise.
  • Inshallah.

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