Updates
April 14, 2022: how did US intel reach the soldier in the field? SpaceX sent Starlink satellite internet terminals to Ukraine. Link here.
Original Post
Russia:
- major crude trading houses are set to slash their purchases of Russia crude oil and crude products starting mid-May
- the operative word is "slash"
- link to Julianne Geiger; source: anonymous Reuters sources.
- this will be a one-two punch
- the first punch will be direct: a decreased purchase of Ruritanian oil (for multiple reasons)
- the second punch will be indirect: lack of western technology will constrain Ruritanian oil production
- a third punch, of course, is the ability to move money between Ruritania and western banks
- if Ms Geiger posted this story at 4:30 p.m. CDT, it was obviously by traders much earlier in the day; as that news trickled out, that explains the sudden jump in the price of Brent and WTI today, Wednesday, April 13, 2022;
- one can assume the White House was monitoring the situation
Ruritania:
- asymmetric warfare;
- without question, the most important aspect of asymmetric warfare is intelligence;
- link here;
- US is moving to significantly expand the intelligence it provides to Ukraine
Comical:
- this was reported the other day: excluding Ruritania, oil output from the rest of the rest of the world (not US) is set to rise by 3.9 million bpd from March, 2022, to December, 2022.
- OPEC+ up by 1.9 million bopd
- non-OPEC+ up by 2.0 million bopd
- US: up by 1.27 million bopd
- source: IEA
- when I first saw that, I had three thoughts:
- surely, they're joking;
- what was I missing? and,
- inshallah.
- Well, it turns out I wasn't the only one who thought this was a joke
- Abhi Rajendran: "this is comical and not going to happen."
- I suppose anything's possible but the tea leaves suggest otherwise.
- Inshallah.
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