Another Day In Paradise — December 4, 2022

 A high of 77 degrees Fahrenheit tomorrow. Whoo-hoo!

Top Story This Past Week — December 4, 2022

So many huge stories over at “Focus on Fracking.”

If I had to pick the top story, this one would be in play:

Biden Admin Quietly Greenlights Plan To Build Huge Gulf Oil Terminal 

The Biden administration has quietly approved plans to build a new crude oil terminal in the Gulf of Mexico off Texas, seemingly in contradiction to the president’s climate agenda. 

The Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration approved the application (pdf) for Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal, one of four proposed offshore oil export terminals, on Monday. 

According to the application, the port will be located offshore of Freeport, Texas. It will have 4.8 million barrels of storage capacity and add 2 million barrels per day to the U.S. oil export capacity.In its 94-page decision (pdf), the Maritime Administration said that it had approved the application because the construction and operation of the port is “in the national interest and consistent with other policy goals and objectives.”“The construction and operation of the Port is in the national interest because the Project will benefit employment, economic growth, and U.S. energy infrastructure resilience and security,” the administration wrote. “The Port will provide a reliable source of crude oil to U.S. allies in the event of market disruption and have a minimal impact on the availability and cost of crude oil in the U.S. domestic market.” 

The decision states that the project will expand on an existing Enterprise Crude Houston operated terminal located in Houston and will generate 62 permanent jobs over 30 years. Additionally, 1,400 temporary construction jobs will be created, with the majority of the workforce being hired from existing labor pools in Texas and Louisiana, according to the application.

Absolutely huge on so many levels. One would have expected this from a GOP president, not a DEM, especially Joe Biden. 

Oil: Ready To Break Out (On The Upside)? December 4, 2022

Scrolling through my twitter feed tonight, one certainly gets that feeling. But I’m always inappropriately bullish when it comes to oil.

“Focus on Fracking”: already posted.

“GasBuddy” suggests rising demand not yet noted by mainstream analysts. And gasoline prices keep dropping. 

If China relaxes Covid-19 restrictions, it will be interesting what the tipping point was. Tea leaves: 

• Apple’s threat to leave China. If Apple leaves, “everyone else” leaves. That’s what Tim Cook told Xi.

If JPow gives investors a Christmas present in ten days, it will be interesting to ponder the tipping point. Tea leaves suggest:

• plummeting housing market; and/or,
• GDPNow dropping from4.3 to 2.8.

Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/11/16/markets-see-a-smaller-fed-hike-coming-in-december/?sh=198b64f32aa3.

**********************

Cowboys

Taking care of business. 40 - 19 midway through fourth quarter.

And looks like another TD coming.

Zeke Elliott.

47 - 19.

Zeke will be fined for jumping into the Salvation Army kettle.

And there’s still six minutes left.

Final: 54 - 19.

OBJ.

The 2023 SUV Of The Year Is An EV -- December 4, 2022

Investors.

EVs: link here. Scorecard. 

Old news, but I missed it: Hyundai. Link, December 29, 2021.

• to close its ICE development division
• also, has indefinitely suspended work on its Genesis hydrogen fuel cell vehicle.

Hyundai and sister company Kia, target: to see 1.7 million EVs worldwide in 2026.

And, oh by the way, the SUV of the year and here: the Hyundai Ioniq 5. 2023.

Hyundai -- Georgia, USA -- posted May 22, 2022. Link here.

• breaks ground on $5.5 billion EV plant, Ellabell, GA -- October 25, 2022;

Just five months after Hyundai announced the $5.5 billion manufacturing plant in Bryan County west of Savannah, vast areas of the site have already been cleared of trees.

The South Korean company plans to open the factory in 2025, with at least 8,100 employees producing up to 300,000 electric vehicles per year.

Georgia officials say it's the largest economic development project the state has ever seen.

U.S. LNG Is Booming, But Who Supplies The Gas? Part 2 -- Alex Kimani -- December 4, 2022

Look at the timeframe: "... over the next couple of years."

Part one here.

Archived. 

The op-ed begins;

In the current year, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG.

Pundits are asking if the United States can ramp up production to meet future demand.  It’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet future LNG demand.

Some data points.

The deals:

• June, 2022: German utility EnBW; 20-year deal; US-based exporter Venture Global
• June, 2022: China Gas Holdings; Energy Transfer
• June, 2022: Chevron; Venture Global
• June, 2022: Tellurian; Vitol
• July, 2022: Thailand's PTT; Cheniere Energy
• September, 2022: Australian giant Woodside Energy Group; US-supplied Commonwealth LNG

Overall,

• offtakers have committed to more than ~31 MMtpa of U.S. LNG supply, with term lengths ranging from 15 to 25 years. But a lot more than that is likely to be demanded over the next couple of years.
  

RBN (archived) estimates that 

“…there’s another 100 MMtpa (14.3 Bcf/d) or so of proposed LNG export capacity with a medium-to-high chance of progressing in the next three years, including at least three projects totaling almost 19 MMtpa (2.5 Bcf/d) that we believe are highly likely to take FID within the next 12 months. That’s out of a universe of nearly 30 projects we track in the LNG Voyager Quarterly, representing over 280 MMtpa (38.3 Bcf/d) of potential export capacity, the bulk of it along the Texas and Louisiana coasts.”

Recently, according to RBN Energy:

RBN notes that the Appalachia was, by far, the biggest contributor to U.S. natural gas growth over the last decade. During the timeframe, Lower 48 dry gas production climbed nearly 30 Bcf from an average 70 Bcf/d in 2014 to 99.6 Bcf/d currently, during which Appalachian output more than doubled and drove 18.5 Bcf/d of that overall growth. The Permian came in a distant second, growing production by 11.2 Bcf/d while the Eagle Ford saw production decline by 1 Bcf/d. Meanwhile, the Haynesville was the third-fastest-growing region on an absolute volume basis, up from 9.5 Bcf/d in 2014 to 15.3 Bcf/d currently. Finally, the Anadarko, Niobrara and Bakken rose by a combined 4.6 Bcf/d over the timeframe. 

Going forward, RBN Energy:

However, the energy experts have predicted that the second wave of U.S. LNG growth will favor the southern basins.

RBN estimates that Appalachia has the potential to ramp up production by almost 8 Bcf/d to 42 Bcf/d over the next 10 years if unconstrained by pipeline takeaway capacity.

However, the analysts say that’s unlikely to happen given strong headwinds for midstream development in the region.

The Appalachian Basin is the country’s largest gas-producing region, churning out more than 35 Bcf/d. Unfortunately, environmental groups have repeatedly stopped or slowed down pipeline projects and limited further growth in the Northeast. Indeed, EQT Corp. CEO Toby Rice recently acknowledged that Appalachian pipeline capacity has “hit a wall.” As a result, RBN says production growth in the basin is likely to be closer to just 3 Bcf/d, capping production at just under 38 Bcf/d on an annual average. 

The other plays:

Meanwhile, growth in the Anadarko, Niobrara and Bakken is likely to remain modest, altogether adding ~3.3 Bcf/d to reach almost 15.5 Bcf/d by 2032.

In other words, the bulk of U.S. LNG growth in this post-shale-boom era will come from the Texas and Louisiana basins.

RBN notes that both the Permian and Haynesville have been at the epicenter of midstream development in recent months while the Eagle Ford has been showing signs of a production recovery of late, after a decline in recent years.

Bottom line:

“This assumes significant gas growth from the Permian and other associated gas plays. Any view where oil prices take enough of a dip to slow that activity in the Permian and you’re going to have even more of a call for gas from gassier basins,” the analysts have said.

Either way, it’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet those targets because takeaway constraints including limited pipeline capacity are seen as the biggest hurdle to growth of the sector despite the country being home to the world’s largest backlog of near-shovel-ready LNG projects.

U.S. LNG Is Booming, But Who Supplies The Gas? Alex Kimani -- December 4, 2022

Archived. 

The op-ed begins;

In the current year, five developers have signed over 20 long-term deals to supply more than 30 million metric tons/year of LNG.

Pundits are asking if the United States can ramp up production to meet future demand.  It’s going to be a real challenge for the United States to meet future LNG demand. 

Conversion:

• 30 million metric tons = 266,193,434 boe 
• /365 = 730,000 boepd
• so, we're talking a million boepd LNG exports
  
• link here

The article provides a great wrap-up for an incredible year for US LNG exports. And, yes, the Bakken is mentioned.

From wiki:

Since 2005, Qatargas has pioneered the development of two new classes of LNG carriers, referred to as Q-Flex and Q-Max.

Each ship has a cargo capacity of between 210,000 and 266,000 cubic metres (7,400,000 and 9,400,000 cu ft) and is equipped with a re-liquefaction plant. 

Today we see interest for small scale LNG bunker carriers. Some need to stay below the life rafts of Cruise ships and Ropax vessels.

Examples are the Damen LGC 3000 and the Seagas.

By 2005 a total of 203 vessels had been built, of which 193 were still in service.

At the end of 2016, the global LNG shipping fleet consisted of 439 vessels. 

In 2017, an estimated 170 vessels are in use at any one time

At the end of 2018, the global fleet was approximately 550 vessels.

In 2021—2022, an LNG shipment from USA to Europe could return a profit of $133—200 million. Shipping rates were $100,000 per day even for 5-year contracts, but can vary between $60,000—250,000.

Conversion:

• 1 cubic meter of LNG = 0.4049 tonnes
• 250,000 cubic meters = 100,000 tons
• 30 million tons / 100,000 tons = 300 Q-Max vessels

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. 

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Prices

Tonight, Sunday night, pre-market oil (up 2%) and natural gas (down 5%):

Energy Costs Make New EV Plants "Unfeasible" -- VW CEO -- December 4, 2022

Themes.

Themes - 2023.

European de-industrialization. 

Energy Cost Make New EV Plants “Unfeasible” 

By ZeroHedge - Dec 03, 2022, 4:00 PM CST 

Rising costs of energy in Europe are making battery cell factories unfeasible. 

Volkswagen brand CEO Thomas Schaefer: investments in German and EU projects will no longer make financial sense if policy makers fail to control ballooning energy prices. 

Volkswagen is in the process of putting 6 battery factories in operation across Europe by the year 2030.

Planning these battery factories must have begun at least two years ago. They must not have seen the European energy crunch coming. 

Updating The Hess EN-Hermanson Wells -- December 4, 2022

August 27, 3022: 24561 (back on line), 24356 (IA), 24615 (550K), 24357 (back on line). Let's see what these wells are doionig now that neighboring wells have been fracked:

• 24356: remains off line, IA. 
  
• 24615: unremarkable, an Oasis well.

• 24357, 724, Hess, EN-Hermanson-154-93-0235H-3, Robinson Lake, t7/13; cum 183K 10/22; recent production, AL:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	10661	10652	20311	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	27	7419	7396	3355	11121	10444	677
BAKKEN	8-2022	17	4689	4502	179	2408	2222	186
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	2	0	6	24	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	14	83	93	172	128	125	3
BAKKEN	3-2022	11	347	366	122	384	298	86
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	667	642	370	882	721	161
BAKKEN	1-2022	6	176	180	63	309	266	43
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	509	517	259	794	676	118
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	578	571	263	840	717	123
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	600	600	279	776	719	57

• 24561, 533, Hess, EN-Hermanson-154-93-0235H-4, Robinson Lake, t8/13; cum 166K 10/22; recent production, F:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	7842	7846	19045	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	21	5818	5696	1067	3728	3197	531
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	1073	1030	279	1007	964	43
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	13	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	11	267	279	385	408	342	66
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	468	475	343	644	531	113
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	583	565	317	803	660	143
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	500	500	349	771	655	116
BAKKEN	11-2021	20	360	358	222	554	478	76
BAKKEN	10-2021	27	499	499	272	646	599	47
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	520	520	322	800	696	104

Updating A Million-Bbl Whitman Well That CLR Just Brought Back On Line -- December 4, 2022

September 7, 2022: 20210; 20212; a huge -- million-barrel -- Whitman well taken off line while other Whitman wells fracked. Back on line. 

Updated recent production:

• 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, t9/11; cum 1,073,310 bbls 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	6688	6551	13133	7952	7533	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	21	3924	3820	6768	4343	4072	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	7	3369	3183	2084	3487	3409	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	2	30	260	2	54	53	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	11434	11435	2135	24764	24352	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	10526	10625	2235	22769	22391	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11724	11681	3040	24686	24267	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	30	10630	10691	3473	22675	22282	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	11820	11842	2373	25132	24758	0

Is EOG Fracking Some Riverview Wells In The Sanish? December 4, 2022

May 18, 2019: see this record-breaking well (#30286); these neighboring wells should report soon: #31447, #31449, #31444 (PNC):  #31448, 31450, 

#30286, went off line 9/22; are the neighboring wells being fracked? They are all still on the confidential list. 

• 30286, 1,974, EOG, Riverview 102-32H, Antelope, s3/16/15; TD 3/20/15; MD 15,564', TVD 10,523'; short lateral, 23 stages, 12.8 million lbs, 320-acre spacing, W/2 sect 29-152-94, t6/15; cum 649K 3/10; cum 706K 8/22; off line as of 9/22;

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Sleeping Beauty's Apple

Alberta Bitumen -- Update -- December 4, 2022

Link here.

De-Industrialization Of China, Rise Of Non-Sino Asia, Re-Shoring Or Something Else? December 4, 2022

Link here.

If China "opens up," is this the reason?

Link here.

So, all of a sudden I'm supposed to be worried about China's economy? LOL.

For The Archives -- Random Data Points -- History Of Two Shields Butte Wells In Heart Butte Oil Field -- December 4, 2022

As a reminder, Devon acquired Rimrock assets in the Bakken, June, 2022.

But over the years, some Rimrock wells had a change in operator, some wells had multiple changes in operators.

For the archives:

• 18989, 958, WPX/RimRock/Whiting/Kodiak, Two Shields Butte 14-21-33-16H3; spud 7/2/10; TD 7/28/10, Heart Butte, t12/10; cum 355K 4/21; no real jump in production; Three Forks well; 5 stages; 500,000 lbs -- that was all; some history
• October 10, 2022: change of operator from Rimrock to WPX; about 350 wells transferred;
• February 12, 2018: change of operator from Whiting to Rimrock; about 110 wells transferred;
• December, 2014: Whiting acquired KOG
  

Two Shields Butte wells are tracked here.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 4, 2022

The wells:

• 38930, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 4-33-4TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 38863, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 3-20H, Little Knife, no production data,
• 36899, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-7H, Squires,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	14174	0
9-2022	16596	16277
8-2022	22352	20458
7-2022	17696	16114
6-2022	13112	11333

• 35527, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-32-16H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,
•  38486, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-4, Wheelock,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	14872	0
9-2022	15923	36657
8-2022	15986	30466
7-2022	29577	34078
6-2022	33678	66197

• 38216, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 38215, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 9H, Heart Butte, no production data, 
• 36898, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-13H, Squires,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	15714	0
9-2022	12859	11872
8-2022	16541	13212
7-2022	22065	18838
6-2022	15228	11732

• 38898, conf, CLR, Bonney 8-3H, Jim Creek, no production data, 
• 38411, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5HU, Sanish,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	24121	22150
9-2022	23814	13978
8-2022	18338	3799
7-2022	21011	16302
6-2022	1927	1862

• 35528, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-17-1H3U, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 38487, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-5, Wheelock,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	16449	0
9-2022	25240	61703
8-2022	18479	38164
7-2022	27452	29195
6-2022	34109	52997

• 38897, conf, CLR, Bonney 7-3HSL1, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 38896, conf, CLR, Bonney 11-3HSL, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 38852, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 4-18-19-158N-99W-MBH, 
• 38895, conf, CLR, Bonney 10-3HSL1, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 38851, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 5-18-19-158N-99W-MBH-LL, Ellisville, no production data,
• 38894, conf, CLR, Bonney 9-3H, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 38850, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Fantuz 2-13-24-158N-100W-MBH, Winner, no production data,
• 38348, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H 5, Smoky Butte, no production data,
• 38804, conf, Hunt, King 156-90-4-35H 3, Ross, no production data,
• 38799, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 37961, conf, Enerplus, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	37233	51152
9-2022	15248	21027
8-2022	13763	23107
7-2022	19792	38250
6-2022	48122	65381

• 29286, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 38800, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1, Jim Creek, no production data,
• 37962, conf, Enerplus, Sausage 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2022	43692	66588
9-2022	70501	98008
8-2022	18354	24281
7-2022	37759	47114
6-2022	6909	9387

• 29283, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 5-18-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 38801, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 15-27H, Jim Creek, no production data, 
• 29284, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 4, 2022

Wednesday, December 14, 2022: 34 for the month, 143 for the quarter, 687 for the year.
38930, conf, Slawson, Lunker Federal 4-33-4TFH,
38863, conf, Sinclair, Hovden Federal 3-20H,
36899, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-7H,
35527, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-32-16H3U,

Tuesday, December 13, 2022: 30 or the month, 139 for the quarter,  683 for the year.
38486, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-4,
38216, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 11TFH,
38215, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21 9H
36898, conf, Bowline, Shaffer 155-102-27-22-13H,

Monday, December 12, 2022: 26 for the month, 135 for the quarter, 679 for the year.
38898, conf, CLR, Bonney 8-3H,
38411, conf, Whiting, Kannianen 11-5HU,
35528, conf, WPX Energy, Two Shields Butte 13-21-17-1H3U,

Sunday, December 11, 2022: 23 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 676 for the year.
38487, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-5,

Saturday, December 10, 2022: 22 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 675 for the year.
38897, conf, CLR, Bonney 7-3HSL1, 

Friday, December 9, 2022: 21 for the month, 130 for the quarter, 674 for the year.
38896, conf, CLR, Bonney 11-3HSL,
38852, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 4-18-19-158N-99W-MBH,

Thursday, December 8, 2022: 19 for the month, 128 or the quarter,   672 for the year.
38895, conf, CLR, Bonney 10-3HSL1,
38851, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Lowe 5-18-19-158N-99W-MBH-LL,

Wednesday, December 7, 2022: 17 for the month, 126 for the quarter, 670 for the year.
38894, conf, CLR, Bonney 9-3H,
38850, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Fantuz 2-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38348, conf, Hunt, Smoky Butte 160-100-31-30H 5,

Tuesday, December 6, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
None.

Monday, December 5, 2022: 14 for the month, 123 for the quarter, 667 for the year.
38804, conf, Hunt, King 156-90-4-35H 3,
38799, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 12-27H,
37961, conf, Enerplus, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H,
29286, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 4-18-7TFH,

Sunday, December 4, 2022: 10 for the month, 119 for the quarter, 663 for the year.
38800, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 13-27H1,
37962, conf, Enerplus, Sausage 151-94-16B-21H,
29283, conf, Slawson, Phatkat Federal 5-18-7TFH,

Saturday, December 3, 2022: 7 for the month, 116 for the quarter, 660 for the year.
38801, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 15-27H,
29284, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 5-19-30TFH,

Posted Overnight -- Saudi's Monthly Foreign Exchange Reserves-- October, 2022, Data

Over the weekend, this morning, Sunday, December 4, 2022, OPEC+ voted to maintain production cuts, no change. This is probably why:

Link here.

Now that the mid-terms are over, President Biden says he has no problem with the decision. At least that's what I read somewhere. 

Buc-ee's: We'll Start Here This Sunday Morning Before Moving On To The Bakken -- December 4, 2022

Link here.

By the remarks in the thread, one can immediately tell who had not been to a Buc-ee's! LOL.