Thursday, June 6, 2013

Stockyard Creek Has Been Updated

Stockyard Creek has been updated.

This is a very good field. And it's only going to get better. This will be a fun one to watch.


One of These Days, Emmylou Harris

The Party's Over

June 6, is reporting -- "Fracking: The Death Knell Of OPEC"
If there was any doubt the U.S. shale revolution is breaking the dominance of unsavory energy producers on global oil supplies, look no further than last week's OPEC meeting, where the alarm bells were going off.
At Friday's Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meeting in Vienna, the mask of non-chalance about America's new fracking energy boom came off.
After years of dismissing U.S. energy production as insignificant and expensive, OPEC suddenly said it would "study" the growth in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, a deceptively bland response to the biggest challenge the cartel has ever faced on its monopoly.
The statement concealed the anything-but-tranquil tone of the meeting, in which members were attacking each other and warning of a split.
Nigeria Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke declared U.S. shale oil "a grave concern," according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
And the linked article goes on from there.

Great article. Sent to me by a reader. Thank you. 

The monopoly is coming to an end. Even Russia is out-producing Saudi Arabia.

Turn out the lights. The party's over. They say all good things must end:

The Party's Over, Willie Nelson
 A Note To The Granddaughters
It's hard to believe that song peaked at #24 in 1967. I was a sophomore in high school. Forty-five years later Willie Nelson is still active. I guess. 
The other day at Starbucks, I happened to strike up a conversation with a 30-something who had a degree is music.  He knew a bit about Willie but did not know these early songs of Willie's. He pulled out a recent photograph of his his brother standing next to Willie. I forget the back story for that photograph, but it was quite remarkable, to say the least. "The Party's Over" is a classic Willie Nelson song from that era, along with "Half A Man" and "Hello, Walls."

It is interesting to note that perhaps his most famous song and/or best song does not appear on his discography: "Crazy."


Does Anyone Recall China's Remarkable GDP Growth? No, I Didn't Think So

From wiki:
From 1979 until 2010, China's average annual GDP growth was 9.91%, reaching an historical high of 15.2% in 1984 and a record low of 3.8% in 1990. 
Based on the current price, the country's average annual GDP growth in these 32 years was 15.8%, reaching an historical high of 36.41% in 1994 and a record low of 6.25% in 1999.
In 2012, China's real GDP growth was 7.8%.

So, that was China.

GDP growth for the United States was 2.5%, pretty good considering all the obstacles put in place by the administration to slow things down (kill the coal industry; deny Keystone XL; stop off-shore drilling; mandate ObamaCare; the sequester). 

Now, North Dakota: 13.4% real GDP in 2012.

The US: 2.5%.
China: 7.8%
North Dakota: 13.4%

CarpeDiem provides more data on North Dakota's growing economy.

One Really Has To Parse Phrases These Days: NYT Comes Close But Can't Completely Dismiss The President

This has to do with the Obama administration admitting that federal authorities routinely collect data on phone calls Americans make, regardless of whether they have any bearing on a counterterrorism investigation ... and that the government will continue to do so.

From an op-ed in The New York Times:
The administration has now lost all credibility on this issue. Mr. Obama is proving the truism that the executive branch will use any power it is given and very likely abuse it. That is one reason we have long argued that the Patriot Act, enacted in the heat of fear after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks by members of Congress who mostly had not even read it, was reckless in its assignment of unnecessary and overbroad surveillance powers.  
"....on this issue."

I guess The Times still takes the president's side on all his other scandals: targeting conservatives, hitting up health care companies for money, and reading e-mail of reporters, but when it comes to tapping phone calls of all Americans when/if/whatever ... that's "one issue" The Times feels the administration has lost all credibility.

Cue up Connie Francis. 

All I know is that Obama/Holder must love The "George W. Bush" Patriot Act. Funny how things work out. 

The Williston Wire: Williston's Buffalo Wild Wings #1 In Sales In The Entire Universe

No links; headlines only. It is easy to subscribe to The Williston Wire.

The lede: Two major retail projects are moving forward in Williston. The Badlands Town Center is set to break ground in June on a 56,500 square foot project that will have a strip mall and five addtional buildings. Meanwhile, a six-story downtown project is a step closer to being built.

From The Williston Wire, regarding Badlands Town Center:
A Williston family is trying to attract new retailers and restaurants to the City. 
Dale Branson, his daughter Ronica Branson-Harger and her fiancĂ© James O'Dwyer are partners in Triland Holdings, LLC. The group is planning to break ground on the first phase of the Badlands Town Center June 24th. 
The village-styled shopping center will be located on the northwest corner of 9th Street West and 42nd Avenue. It will have walkway access to 1,500 to 2,000 apartment units in the Roseland Subdivision.
 Apparently the city agreed to the multi-million-dollar downtown project.

Williston's Buffalo Wild Wings was the number one selling BWW in the country during its first seven days, beating out huge franchises in California and Florida. I.N.C.R.E.D.I.B.L.E.

Opportunity knocks: Arnegard schoolhouse for sale. At $2.5 million it is being offered for slightly more than $100/square foot. From The Williston Wire:
That's for not only the brick schoolhouse with its wide, creaky stairways and hallways, en suite bath and bedrooms in former classrooms, tall windows and science lab-turned-kitchen, but also the two gymnasiums, the newest and largest alone adding 7,000 square feet. That "newest" by the way, is relative; it is nearly 60 years old.
A strip mall will be built in downtown Williston. It might be best if city fathers come up with a better name for such malls. When the work force is 99.9% male, ....

For the second summer, United Airlines will fly daily nonstop flights from Rapid City to Houston, Texas, connecting North Dakota oil boom to Texas oil brokers.

Eleven (11) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Friday; Again, Some Very Nice Wells

Active rigs: 189 (steady)

Eleven (11) new permits --
  • Operators: EOG (3), Legacy (3), QEP (3), CLR, Statoil
  • Fields: Hanson (Williams), Parshall (Mountrail), Red Rock (Bottineau), Spring Creek (McKenzie), Grail (McKenzie)
  • Comments: QEP is getting very, very active, especially in the Helis Grail
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted and tweeted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Two (2) producing wells completed:
  • 24384, 1,677, XTO, Carter 13X-12H, Grinnell, t5/13; cum --
  • 24385, 1,818, XTO, Carter 14X-12D, Grinnell, t5/13; cum 3K 4/13;
Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 22583, 1,010, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-3H, Haystack Butte, t4/13; cum 15K 4/13;
  • 24031, 2,181, Whiting, Marsh 34-18PH, Dutch Henry Butte, t12/12; cum 65K 4/13;
  • 24120, drl, BR, Blegen 34-24MBH, Blue Buttes, no data,
  • 24437, 330, CLR, Mowinckel 1-27H, Corinth, t4/13; cum 11K 4/13;


22583, see above, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-3H, Haystack Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

24031, see above, Whiting, Marsh 34-18PH, Dutch Henry Butte:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

24437, see above, CLR, Mowinckel 1-27H, Corinth:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Activity In North Dakota Oil Patch Associated With Record Number Of Deer Despite One Of The Most Severe Winters On Record


June 7, 2013: see first comment.  I corrected the post below. It looks like there may be differing opinions on overall "health" of the mule deer population in North Dakota.

Original Post

Not entirely accurate, but something tells me one could write that headline based on data points in an article posted by The Dickinson Press. Data points from the article:
  • the 2012-13 winter in western North Dakota may have been one of the most severe in decades
  • mule deer population surged in western North Dakota; up 15%
  • increased to more than 5 mule deer per square mile
  • project in place to see how oil activity is affecting mule deer population
Risk: with the surge in mule deer population this past winter, a drop in population is likely next year; oil patch activities could be wrongly blamed if population drops.

Comment below: apparently the historical average is about 7.5 mule deer / square mile; last year things were particularly tough and the density / population dropped to around 4 mule deer / square mile. With restrictions on hunting (and other possible factors) density is back up to about 5 mule deer/square mile. I hope I got that right this time.

Indian Hill Has Been Updated

Indian Hill updated. No new permits yet in 2013. A small field. Nothing remarkable. Lots of activity yet to come.

North Dakota's Economy -- #1 In US -- Third Year In A Row -- CNN

Sent by a reader (thank you). CNN is reporting:
Propelled by a massive energy boom, North Dakota once again captured the title of the nation's hottest economy, with a growth rate five times the national average.
North Dakota's economy posted a 13.4% growth rate in 2012, according to a report released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That's nearly three times as fast as the number two state, Texas, and trounces the national average of 2.5%. 
This is the third year in a row that North Dakota took the top spot in BEA's state-by-state report on gross domestic product (GDP). The muscle behind the boom is a surge in oil production from the Bakken Shale, an underground rock formation in the northwestern part of the state.  
Thanks to high oil prices and new drilling technology -- including the controversial hydraulic fracturing, better known as "fracking" -- oil production in North Dakota is now six times higher than it was in 2007. In 2012, the North Dakota surpassed Alaska and California to become the second largest oil-producing state in the nation behind Texas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Controversial hydraulic fracking which has safely been done for the past forty (40) fifty (50) years, it could be added.

From wiki:
The first experimental use of hydraulic fracturing was in 1947, and the first commercially successful applications were in 1949. As of 2010, it was estimated that 60% of all new oil and gas wells worldwide were being hydraulically fractured. As of 2012, 2.5 million hydraulic fracturing jobs have been performed on oil and gas wells worldwide, more than one million of them in the United States.
And to the best of my knowledge, no significant problem noted. Better record than GM or Toyota recalls. Just saying. 

Breaking Now: NJ To Get First Republican Senator Since 1982 (Nancy Reagan Was First Lady)

I was almost ready to put up a new poll asking whether NJ governor Chris Christie would run as an independent in 2016 but it was too far afield.

And then this story broke.

Then this, from a tweet: Looks like Christie got told by GOP to appoint somebody GOP or he'll be running IND in 2014. He might be Hillary's VP in 2016 yet.

First GOP senator since 1982.

This is not a random post on a random political event.

It has relevance to an earlier post: Meredith Whitney's look at the parting of ways for the US "united" states.  I did not realize that New Jersey was in such tough shape. According to Ms Whitney:
“Illinois and New Jersey are the worst because they've been doing it the longest,” Whitney says, adding Michigan and California to her list of bad state actors.
I have a very fond spot in my heart for New Jersey; I "lived" a lifetime there one summer. I did not realize the state was in such trouble. The state is very seldom mentioned on this page. But:
California, Illinois, and  New Jersey: three states in most trouble, according to Meredith Whitney. April 26, 2012.
That was back in early 2012, more than a year ago. Something tells me Christie has his work cut out for himself and explains his coziness to President Obama. It's hard for me to see a Hillary-Christie ticket in 2016, but stranger things have happened, I suppose.

Amazon Amazing

I ordered a new power cord for my Apple laptop Tuesday night, well into the evening. Normally, I rely on free mailing because I generally don't need things all that quickly. Due to my upcoming traveling, I wanted to get the power cord in 3 - 5 business days so paid the shipping costs (reasonable). Two-day shipping and overnight shipping much more expensive, but I didn't need it that fast, and in the end it got her in less than 48 hours anyway. 

It was either that same evening or the next day: I received an e-mail from Amazon telling me that the order had been shipped. This a.m. I received a reminder suggesting the item would arrive June 6 (which is today).

Sure enough: when I got back to the house, there it was. I ordered this Tuesday night, and received it midday Thursday.

Two comments:
  • Amazon's movement into grocery delivery in urban centers could be very, very successful
  • okay, just one; the other one is not necessary

BLM Extends Comment Period For Another 60 Days -- Fracking -- The Tea Leaves Are Swirling

Oil and Gas Journal is reporting:
Oil and gas producers will have another 60 days to comment on the US Bureau of Land Management’s latest proposed regulations for hydraulic fracturing operations on onshore public lands, US Interior Secretary Sally Jewell announced.
“Thousands of comments have been made on the proposed hydraulic fracturing rule,” she told the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. “Many which responded to the original proposal led us to revise it and issue a second one. I’m announcing now that we’re going to give people an extra 60 days to comment on the latest proposal.”
The secretary said improving federal oil and gas permit application processing remains a top priority, but progress will be limited because of ongoing federal budget sequestration impacts.
“We want to bring the lessons we learned offshore onshore,” Jewell said. “There’s a need to streamline the permitting process. These formations cross state lines. Unfortunately, sequestration is forcing us to limit activity in offices where there’s the greatest need. We are trying to address this.”
Sequestration also is preventing DOI from sharing onshore federal oil and gas revenue with states where such activity is located, she continued. “We appreciate the importance of this to the states, but we are required to comply with the law,” she said.
The tea leaves are swirling.

The Group Of Seven: The Central Corridor

I'll come back to finish this later. From Meredith Whitney, over at Yahoo!Finance:
“Illinois and New Jersey are the worst because they've been doing it the longest,” Whitney says, adding Michigan and California to her list of bad state actors.
“They spent as if the good times would never end and made big promises to state and local government employees based on the deliberate bet that they wouldn’t.”
In 2009, for example, state and local government spending was 25.3% of California’s GDP and 25% in New York, which compares unfavorably to just 9.7% in Texas.
And now, these states are being sucked into what Whitney calls “the negative feedback loop from hell.”
Faced with massive deficits and huge pension fund liabilities, these states need to raise taxes even as they’re “running out of money needed to pay for libraries, safe streets, clean drinking water and, yes, schools,” she laments.
And that's the problem. It's not that they are currently fiscally in trouble; it's the fact they are falling behind. If one wants to talk about Red Queens running in place to keep up, this would be a good start. The bad news is that in some cases, perhaps Illinois and New Jersey, the Red Queen has fallen off the treadmill. 


The lede from the linked article:
“A tale of two Americas is emerging: one weighed down by debt and facing de minimis economic growth and another brimming with opportunity and nimble to invest in the future.”
That’s the thesis of Fate of the States: The New Geography of American Prosperity, a new book by Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group and former senior analyst at Oppenheimer.
Specifically, Whitney says “central corridor” states Texas, Oklahoma, Indiana, Colorado, Utah, North Dakota and Montana are best-positioned for fast economic growth and population migration.
I can't speak for any state in that list of seven other than North Dakota, but something Meredith probably does not understand well. There is not ONE North Dakota, but in fact at least two: the west and the east, with Bismarck, perhaps, a third. Population migration to western North Dakota will be temporary; migration to eastern North Dakota will be a constant, and mostly to Fargo. She does not include South Dakota in her list of seven but Sioux Falls will be the outlier in that state, growing over time. 


More from Meredith:
What these states have in common are low taxes, pro-business policies, low population density (meaning lower housing costs, shorter commutes and better quality of life) as well as strong and stable balance sheets, especially relative to other states.
“Regardless of whether the fiscal prudence of central corridor states was the result of serendipity of good planning, the reality is these states don’t have the financial burdens now crushing the housing-boom states,” she writes.
As a result, these states are in a position to keep taxes low while also spending on infrastructure and education, all of which will make them more attractive to both U.S. and foreign corporations looking to relocate.

Idle Rambling On Bakken Wells

Take a look at the the IPs of the wells that came of the confidential list today.

Compare them to the results of the Bakken wells drilled back in 2010 (remove the BEXP wells; the EOG Parshall wells; and, the Whiting Sanish wells which were outliers from the beginning). The general trend is improving wells. IPs of 600 were nice back in 2010, but IPs of 1,000 made the headlines. More importantly EURS have increased since 2010.

To get these better results, some of the factors:
  • better understanding of the geology
  • better understanding of fracking and best technology
  • more experienced crews, geologists
  • more frack stages
  • more proppant (in some cases -- like EOG -- a lot more sand)
  • more water
  • concentration on better locations
With regard to the above factors and cost
  • the cost of the first three listed factors was probably more in terms of time, than in $$$$
  • the last factor listed, of course, is, I suppose, a non-issue with regard to $$$$
  • only the 4th, 5th, and 6th factors relate directly to $$$$ I suppose
Water: going down in cost, and going down significantly (see earlier posts, search WAWS)

Sand and ceramics:  per ton, probably going down in cost; per well, probably increasing cost since 2010, because more proppant is being used/well.

Hold those thoughts.

Starting about 18 months ago, operators were coming under intense pressure to get their cost/well down. $10 million/well seemed to be the ceiling informed investors were willing to accept. Note: the informed investors weren't asking for individual line items to come down in cost, they were demanding that the overall cost of the well come down.

I have no idea how much one can "trust" the numbers used in the corporate presentations, but it appears operators are shooting for $8 million/well, significantly below $10 million/well. (Actually, this is even better, and something I have not seen talked about elsewhere: generally things get more expensive going forward and for Bakken operators to not only stay within the inflationary increases but actually decrease overall costs is quite amazing, I suppose. In other words, all things being equal, one could have expected the average cost for a Bakken well to increase over the past few years; to decrease is interesting.)

So, despite using more, water, more sand, and more stages (I assume all things being equal, the more frack stages, the more the wells should cost), the overall cost of the well has come down. I can't do it, but it would be interesting to see it graphed with the left x axis being the average cost of wells; the right x axis the average quality of the wells; and, of course, the y axis time.  I can imagine a downward sloping of the average cost of wells, and the upward slope of the quality of the wells over time. Even if there are a few super-long laterals (3-miles long) that turn out to be very, very good, operators will still have trouble justifying higher costs for these wells to their investors.

The point I'm trying to make: even as operators are working to get better and better wells (despite the associated costs of more stages, more water, more sand), the investors are not looking at $$$$/foot of fracking, but $$$$$/well, no matter how unfair that might be. I think Mike Filloon has talked about $$$$/foot. The operators are running up against this unfair reality: $$$$/foot will decrease, hopefully resulting in better "bang for the buck," but the analysts will be looking at average cost of the individual wells, and won't get side-tracked with $$$$/frack foot.

To some extent, this is something we seen in most industries: start-up costs are high, but once they get into the manufacturing stage, unit costs come down. Although some folks will argue with me, I am not convinced we are in full swing of the manufacturing stage of the Bakken (we can't get their until infrastructure catches up; until roads are generally all-weather roads; until ... ).

If investors liked the Bakken operators when they were reporting lower IPs, and higher costs per well, they should really like what we are now seeing: higher IPs and lower costs per well.

And infrastructure is yet to catch up. I assume a lot of production is being choked back for any number of reasons, least of which, the flaring restrictions. RBN Energy provided a great explanation for that some time back. It's much more than just pipelines when it comes to natural gas.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site; do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here.

Just Some Idle Rambling Connecting The Saudi Refining Dots And CO2 EOR


Later, 2:11 pm: Platts is reporting --
Russia is the world’s biggest oil producer and has been for quite a while — that’s a fact. Its output has consistently ranked above that of Saudi Arabia in the past few years and in May, Russian average daily output hit a new 2013 high of almost 10.5 million b/d.
Saudi output, meanwhile, has mostly stayed below 10 million b/d in the past few years given OPEC production limitations.
So it is still surprising to read reports about how the American shale boom is set to push the US ahead of Saudi Arabia as the top producer globally by 2017.
It is indisuptable that at the moment Russia’s oil production is significantly higher than even the most extravagant of estimates of Saudi output.
In 2012, Russian oil production averaged 10.4 million b/d. Saudi Aramco, in its annual report published last week, said it pumped 9.5 million b/d last year. Russia’s place at the top of the oil producing league, then, seems assured, at least for now.
Russia, though, is clearly pumping at capacity to make the most of high oil prices.

Comment: folks really believe that Saudi is holding back production to comply with OPEC limits when "everyone else" in OPEC is cheating?
Later, 1:19 pm: within an hour of posting the note below, another story appeared which helped explain the Red Sea story and Saudi Arabia

Original Post

The link is here.

For round numbers, I think one could say the US imported, on a monthly basis, about 45,000,000 bbls of oil from Saudi Arabia from 1993 (yes, the previous millenium, the previous century) until December, 2008.

Then, between December, 2008, and March, 2009, there was a precipitous drop in Saudi imports, and a re-setting, as it were, of the baseline, to about 35,000,000 bbls.

The trend increased between July, 2010, and April, 2012, when it took another precipitous drop. However, since then, the trend has been increasing.

The number of bbls/month, in thousands, imported to the USA from Saudi for the most recent months data is avaiable:
January, 2013: 30,347
February, 2013: 38,887
March, 2013: 39,796
When you look at those numbers, remember this story. And the CO2 connection.

The CO2 connection is just one story line. There are many, many other story lines. Total crude oil imports into the US are falling; monthly imports from OPEC fluctuate significantly, but the Saudi data for 1Q13 is very interesting.

Bakken: The Home Of The Miss North Dakota Pageant -- Since 1987

This is probably the best story of the day, if not the week. So many story lines. I can already think of the video that will go with this post (but, no, I won't post it; I will post an alternate video).

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
One adjustment the pageant made last year was finding a new place for the women to stay as Williston hotels became housing for temporary workers.
But that never became a problem, McGinley said, because Williston State College offered its recently constructed residence hall to the contestants and opened up rooms for parents.
With the addition of new hotels, availability of rooms has improved this year, although rates are higher than other areas in the state.
The finalists continue to stay together at the college rather than at various hotels.
I think this is awesome.

So even when the oil boom ends, all those motel and hotel rooms will be available for the pageant. 


Fantasizing about fracking spreads?

Thursday Morning News And Links

Active rigs: 191 189

RBN Energy: Storage of natural gas in the United States
A lot of natural gas storage follows a time honored pattern – put gas in during the summer and take it out during the winter.  But it is getting much more complicated than that.  Developments in natural gas production – particularly in the Appalachian (Marcellus) region will be driving big changes through the gas storage business.   Today we pick up on a blog series we started last month to examine the two fundamental value generating gas storage mechanisms, and how they match up with the physical characteristics of storage facilities.
WSJ Links

Section D (Personal Journal):
United shrank from 60% of all Denver traffic, including connecting passengers, in 2006 to 40% and remains the Mile High City's largest airline overall. It says it is returning to growth mode in Denver and plans to add 4% capacity this year, including starting Denver's first nonstop flights to Asia with Boeing 787 service to Tokyo's Narita Airport. United also has been expanding flights to cities in North Dakota and Canada around the Bakken Shale oil fields, as Denver has become a gateway for oil-business traffic.
Section C (Money & Investing):
The thinking goes like this: With the Federal Reserve debating when to begin the dreaded "taper"—the point at which it slows its buying of Treasury and mortgage securities—poor news on employment will keep the printing presses rolling for longer. That, in turn, underpins stock prices. In normal times, by contrast, stocks would sell off on weak jobs growth.
But "good news is bad news" oversimplifies how markets may view upcoming reports on jobless claims and unemployment due on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Goldilocks is a better fit than Bizarro. Popular with strategists in the last bull market, she described an economy that was neither too hot nor too cold to spoil the party.
Expectations around this Friday's nonfarm-payrolls report are for growth of about 170,000 jobs. Mr. Saperstein figures anything below 220,000 to 240,000 won't fully convince traders the economy is strong enough to keep expanding without the Fed's help. On the other hand, a number below 100,000 might leave the Fed looking impotent.
Section B (Marketplace):

Section A:

Today: Jobless Claims Drop To 346,000; Looking Ahead: Jobs Report Friday

This week, Business Insider is reporting: Jobless claims were revised upward, up to 357,000. This past week, they fell to 346,000.
Economists were predicting a slightly larger drop to 345,000.
Continuing claims fell to 2.952 million during the week ended May 25 from an upward-revised 3.004 million the week before.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting:
Expectations around this Friday's nonfarm-payrolls report are for growth of about 170,000 jobs. Mr. Saperstein figures anything below 220,000 to 240,000 won't fully convince traders the economy is strong enough to keep expanding without the Fed's help. On the other hand, a number below 100,000 might leave the Fed looking impotent.
So, we'll see tomorrow.

The magic number used to be 200,000 (before Obama, BO). Now, the magic number seems to be a bit of a moving target, depending who is reporting the story. The number has gotten as low as 120,000, and in this story, it's now 100,000 with regard to the Fed.

Looking farther ahead: for jobs, look at the perfect storm -- sequester effects hit jobs later this year and employers start cutting more quickly in the autumn as we move toward the Train Wreck.