Thursday, February 9, 2017

The Closer, T+20, February 9, 2017

California gasoline prices rising. From Platts:
  • "refinery issues"
  • production declines in California
  • increasing demand for gasoline from Mexico
Refinery issues: a crude unit and an alkylation unit are down at Chevron's 269,000 b/d El Segundo refinery; company did not provide time for "re-start."
DAPL work to begin immediately. We'll see. Not holding my breath. I think the first of two court challenges is in DC federal court. Yeah, that court. Story over at PennEnergy.

OPEC production cut could be extended into 2H17 -- Iran oil minister. Story over at HellenicShippingNews. An earlier tweet suggested that every OPEC country exceeded "cut" target by small amount except for Saudi Arabia (taking the brunt of the production cut) and Iran (producing just below its target. The numbers were based on third-party sources, felt to be more reliable than data released by the country itself.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any financial or investing decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Fracking sand: a reader sent me this link -- anticipate a shortage of fracking sand. Mike Filloon has been predicting that for several years. Harold Hamm, recently asked that question directly, say "CLR has plenty of sand."

The market: after another record-setting day on Wall Street, futures (which mean "squat") suggest another "good" day tomorrow. Dow futures are up about 23 points. Climbing the wall of worry:

From 40 To 36 Active Rigs In Less Than Four Days -- In The Williston Basin -- February 9, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3640137192185

No new permits.

One well coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 30509, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Eide-LE-151-95-3328H-1, Blue Buttes, no production data, 
Thirteen (13) permits renewed:
  • CLR (6): six Sorenson permits in Mountrail County
  • BR (4): four CCU Mainstreeter permits in Dunn County
  • BTA Oil (3): three Beaver Creek permits in Billings County

Venezuela -- Tick, Tick, Tick -- February 9, 2017

Venezuela falls behind on oil-for-loan deals with China -- Reuters, data points:
not just a few days, but months behind in crude and fuel under oil-for-load deals with China and Russia
  • China and Russia have provided Venezuela at least $55 billion in credit
  • total worth of late cargoes: at least $750 million
  • wow -- $55 billion in credit, and not only are cargoes a pittance of that (less than a billion dollars), that cargo is not even getting to China, Russia
  • nearly 10 million bbls in arrears; as much as 10 months late
Spreadsheet here

Upswing In Gasoline Demand Coincides WIth Plunge In First Time Claims For Unemployment Insurance -- February 9, 2017

Time For A Song

This has nothing to do with anything. It brings back a lot of memories for me. It's been a long time since I've heard it. It happened to come up in rotation. Nothing more, nothing less.

Twist In My Sobriety, Tanita Tikaram

The Political Page -- February 9, 2017, T+20

Cabinet: The more I read about Betsy DeVos, the more I realize that the Progs were on the wrong side on this one. I knew nothing of her before the nomination; did not follow it closely; what I knew came from mainstream media. Now that I've read a bit of her background, I find a completely different story.

Yes, this is an op-ed from The Wall Street Journal, but it's a great place to start.

Data points:
  • Flint, MI: 53% of students go to charter schools
  • Detroit, MI: 53% of students go to charter schools
  • DC: 45% of students go to charter schools
The Progs (morning business show narrative)
  • street theater
  • out-of-sync with American people
  • clever sayings, demonstrations, protests; no substance 
Huge Congressional - IT story not being reported by mainstream media. This story will have legs once the public starts getting the details. One Congressional IT staffer was a convicted felon; all three arrested were brothers. Hired by Democratic congressman. Nancy Pelosi recently lauded these IT hires, one of whom is a convicted felon. Each earns in excess of $160,000 / year, said to be about three times average IT pay.

ICE is back: surfing the net suggests that, good, bad, or indifferent, ICE is back doing its job. Updates:
ND Senator Heidi Heitkamp votes NOT to confirm Jim Sessions as US Attorney General, taking direction from Chuck Schumer.

At the head of the line: Great Britain, Japan, Canada, Israel. Foreign leaders meeting with President Trump. 

Market And Energy News, T+20, February 9, 2017

All three indices (S&P 50, Dow Industrials, NASDAQ) hit all-time record highs.

EIA: US energy trade with Mexico -- US export value more than twice the import value in 2016!  The graphic at the link is quite extraordinary.

BHP Billiton approves $2.2 billion share of its investment in second phase of the Mad Dog oilfield; 140,000 bopd; to come on-line in late 2021. Making America great again.

OXY: not sure why all the excitement for OXY. Huge EPS miss reported today. See below.


American Airlines CEO "boycotts" President Trump's meeting with airline CEOs on airline security. Says he had a scheduling conflict.

Jobs: first time claims plunge unexpectedly. Okay. Bloomberg headline: US jobless claims unexpectedly fall to lowest since November. The Trump enthusiasm continues.
  • econoday
  • forecast: 250,000
  • actual: 234,000
  • huge, unexpected drop; -12,000
  • below 300,00: longest streak since 1970; 101-week stretch
  • the previous record: 161-week period that ended in April, 1970; stretched back to 1967
  • four-week average: 244,250; lowest point since 1973
Louisiana pipeline would create 4,000-plus jobs -- Rigzone:
  • Bayou Bridge Pipeline
  • joint venture: Phillips 66, Energy Transfer Partners (ET), and Sunoco Logistics Partners -- formed in mid-2015
  • would deliver heavy and light crude oil from terminals in Nederland, TX, to Lake Charles, LA
  • first phase completed last spring (2016)
  • second phase: seeking US Army Corps of Engineers approval: 163 miles eastward from Lake Charles to St James in the New Orleans area -- in the vicinity of extensive terminal and refining infrastructure
  • expansion would span much of South Louisiana
  • spur more than $829 million in new economic activity
  • create more than 4,000 jobs
  • generate more than $400 million in new wages
WTI: $53/13 -- very surprising after "build" data yesterday. Tea leaves suggest OPEC will extend duration of production cut. Previously reported.

Equity markets: all up in early trading.
  • AAPL: flat to slightly negative
  • BRK-B: melting up
  • CVX: melting up
  • SRE: melting up
  • OXY huge miss on EPS; but beats on revenues: EPS loss of 13 cents vs 3 cents forecast; revenues came in at $2.826 million, marginally beating the forecast of $2.806 million.
Mid-morning trading: Dow 30 closing in on a triple-digit gain today; NASDAQ will have its 21st record high close since Trump was elected president.

S&P 500 hits an all-time intra-day high. Trump rally continues.


Active Rigs Drop In Number From 40 To 36 In 72 Hours -- February 9, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3640137192185

RBN Energy: the basins midstreamers serve help reveal their prospects.

Scott Adams: the odds of being killed by an immigrant.

Winter storm Niko slams NYC, Boston.

In the land of ice and snow:

Immigrant Song, Karen O

Standing Rock Reservation likely to sue: environmental impact study, after a gazillion years in study, was closed too soon. [Update: 10:17 a.m Central Time: first of two lawsuits filed.]