On CNBC this afternoon (October 1, 2010), we get word that price of oil could go up another six (6) percent and/or we could even see double-digit increase in the price of oil in the near future. Or something like that; I forgot to write it down as it was being reported and now I'm writing from memory. The feeling is that a pick up in the global economy is accounting for the bullishness. [I understand that someone on CNBC's Fast Money today said oil could go to $100. These were the same guys that said oil was overpriced a few months ago, and that fundamentals suggested oil should be at $20. Entertainers, they are.]
In addition, Oil and Gas Journal's senior editor wrote yesterday that the 2.7 percent spike in the price of oil was most likely due to evidence of an improving global economy.
The evidence of an improving global economy? The government revised last quarter's US GDP slightly upward, from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent. Give me a break. Does anyone really believe a) this number is reproducible; b) statistically significant; or, c) could affect the price of oil this much?
If so, wait until there's a real uptick in the economy.
Friday, October 1, 2010
Ten More Permits -- Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA
Ten more permits issued in the Williston Basin today. Most of them were for the Bakken. Two more vertical by two different companies, mostly likely targeting the Spearfish formation. And again, nine different drillers for those ten permits. Everyone is very, very active.
Among the oil fields, Robinson Lake looks very interesting and both yesterday and today there were more permits for the Ambrose oil field.
Among the oil fields, Robinson Lake looks very interesting and both yesterday and today there were more permits for the Ambrose oil field.
Another North Dakota First: Shortest Commute Times
I debated about linking this article. It is so, so trivial, abut it's another first for North Dakota, so I felt it my duty to post and link it.
North Dakota is number one in the nation in shortest commute times. The average commute time in North Dakota is 16.6 minutes. South Dakota: 16.7 minutes.
(I hate to throw in an anomaly that probably was not accounted for: the fifteen-minute wait time warming up the car in the middle of the winter. Or maybe it was accounted for. Most North Dakotans I know have about a one-minute commute. Add that to the 15-minute warm-up and you have about 16 minutes. Those that don't have a car, take the high-speed light rail.)
That's a little joke: there is no high-speed light rail in North Dakota. We do have Amtrak, which is neither high speed nor light.
North Dakota is number one in the nation in shortest commute times. The average commute time in North Dakota is 16.6 minutes. South Dakota: 16.7 minutes.
(I hate to throw in an anomaly that probably was not accounted for: the fifteen-minute wait time warming up the car in the middle of the winter. Or maybe it was accounted for. Most North Dakotans I know have about a one-minute commute. Add that to the 15-minute warm-up and you have about 16 minutes. Those that don't have a car, take the high-speed light rail.)
That's a little joke: there is no high-speed light rail in North Dakota. We do have Amtrak, which is neither high speed nor light.
Not the Bakken: September Automobile Sales. Recession? What Recession?
September auto sales:
- GM sales down
- Chrysler sales up slightly; Toyota flat
- Ford sales up 46% over September one year ago
- Daimler-Benz has near all-time September record sales
The Heath/Tyler Formation: Another North Dakota Formation Ripe for Unconventional Exploitation? -- October 1, 2010
Locator: 10001TYLER.
SOURCES
USGS assessment, summer, 2017.
Geo News (official ND publication): history of horizontal drilling in the Tyler, January, 2012
ND DMR presentation, 2012 (PDF)
Geo News (official ND publication): Review the Resource Potential of the Pennsylvania Tyler Formation, January 2011, Geo News, January, 2011 (PDF)
ND DMR presentation, November 1, 2011 (PDF) -- apparently this one has been removed
Central Montana Heath Geology Report (PDF, could take a moment to download).
Short blurb on the Heath/Tyler in central Montana, book,1994.
Nice map (regional link may break).
Some "monster" Heath/Tyler wells
In central Montana: maybe not so good
NEWSGeo News (official ND publication): history of horizontal drilling in the Tyler, January, 2012
ND DMR presentation, 2012 (PDF)
Geo News (official ND publication): Review the Resource Potential of the Pennsylvania Tyler Formation, January 2011, Geo News, January, 2011 (PDF)
ND DMR presentation, November 1, 2011 (PDF) -- apparently this one has been removed
Central Montana Heath Geology Report (PDF, could take a moment to download).
Short blurb on the Heath/Tyler in central Montana, book,1994.
Nice map (regional link may break).
Some "monster" Heath/Tyler wells
In central Montana: maybe not so good
Tuesday, June 6, 2023: White Rock Oil & Gas to re-complete a Madison well as a dual Madison / Tyler well.
Wednesday, April 7, 2021:
- 37858, drl/drl, Red Trail Energy LLC, RTE 10.2, wildcat, formation target: AMSDEN; SWNW 10-139-92; see graphics below. Note: Amsden, Tyler, Heath -- perhaps not for purists, and not to be taken out of context -- these three formations are pretty much different names for the same general formation. See this post.
October 4, 2019: a Tyler/Heath re-entry well in the southwest corner of the state of North Dakota?
December 29, 2013: Williston Exploration will target the Tyler in acreage previously controlled by Chesapeake in southwest North Dakota. At the same link: 21589, Petro-Hunt, Clear Creek-Tyler, redefine field limits, rules, McKenzie.
October 3, 2013: the significance of MRO targeting the Tyler.
September 26, 2013: MRO has rig-on-site targeting the Tyler; far southwest corner of the state.
Marathon Oil provides some of this information which came from a reader, unidentified source.
- 1280-acre spacing in Slope County
- lateral lengths of 4,500 feet to 10,000 feet; vertical depth of about 7,500 feet
- EURs: 380,000
- 36°API, similar to sweet Bakken crude, which ranges between 36-44°API
- USGS Tyler conventional estimates: 15 million bbls
- USGS has not provided estimate of unconventional Tyler potential
March 15, 2013: Heath/Tyler in Montana not panning out.
November 24, 2012: a Platts update of the Tyler.
June 7, 2012: Statoil partners with Cirque Resources, LP, in Heath formation, Montana;
April 19, 2012: Denbury re-completes a Madison well --> Tyler.
March 21, 2012: Is Chesapeake ready to target the Heath/Tyler?
November 1, 2011: Are they paying $14,000/acre in southwestern North Dakota for the Three Forks?
October 20, 2011: Back in the news.
May 15, 2011: More on the Heath (Montana) which probably is an extension from the Tyler (North Dakota).
January 1, 2011: Peer-Reviewed Article on the Tyler.
November 17, 2010: EUR for a Tyler well? 200,000 barrels with old technology. Here we go.
November 17, 2010: Leasing begins in the Tyler formation. Here we go.
November 17, 2010: Good, but not as good as the Bakken.
The Original Post
Updated
January, 2011 ArticleUpdated
Update of the Tyler formation here, January 8, 2018.
Location of the Tyler Formation
Average TOC for the Tyler: 1.39% (better than Saudi Arabia) but not as good as the Bakken's 11%! The best Tyler is in McKenzie County, almost the same location as the Bakken bull's eye; in McKenzie County, the TOC for the Tyler is an incredible 4.0 to 5.0 percent. See ND DMR slide presentation, slide #13.
Location of the Tyler Formation
Average TOC for the Tyler: 1.39% (better than Saudi Arabia) but not as good as the Bakken's 11%! The best Tyler is in McKenzie County, almost the same location as the Bakken bull's eye; in McKenzie County, the TOC for the Tyler is an incredible 4.0 to 5.0 percent. See ND DMR slide presentation, slide #13.
This is a much more interesting article than I first thought when I rushed over it this morning. [As noted in earlier posts, many stories in "local" newspapers are removed from the web or require a paid subscription. This article is an example. As of October 8, it was already removed, but the following is the gist of the story.]
The Director, North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) says the Tyler formation is yet another known formation that may be amenable to horizontal drilling and fracturing.That is not a trivial statement.
If you are interested in looking at the Tyler formation, simply "google" it. You will be surprised by the number of hits.
The Tyler formation accounts for about one percent of the total amount of oil produced in North Dakota. That compares to the Birdbear which has produced almost an identical amount (one percent of total North Dakota production). The Bakken, or course, will far surpass those numbers someday, but at the moment the Bakken is responsible for only six (6) percent of the total amount of oil that has been produced in North Dakota. The Madison formation has produced 51 percent of the total North Dakota oil.
The Tyler formation, according to Helms extends well past the North Dakota borders, west into Montana and south into South Dakota. Based on stratigraphic maps, the Tyler formation may be even thicker than the Bakken in some areas.
In addition to the comments about the Tyler formation, the director reiterated how long he thinks active drilling will continue:
Helms said officials estimate about 2,000 wells per year will be drilled in the Bakken and Three Forks formations, consuming 23 million gallons of water per day, continuing for close to 20 years.This jibes with a previously posted scientific paper on a basic analysis of the Bakken in which the authors suggest that active drilling will continue through 2030 and these wells will be producing through 2100.
This story is centered around Dickinson, ND. For more on Dickinson (Stark County) story, click here.
[Idle chatter: who would have guessed ten years ago that the US would literally be swimming in natural gas in 2010. Wouldn't it be interesting if horizontal drilling and fracturing vastly increased the total oil production in the lower 48 states ten years from now? The peak oil theorists will disagree.]
Look to the Upper Right Sidebar: Conference Announcements
I am listing upcoming conference announcements at the top of the sidebar on the right.
These conferences turn out to have the best (and, of course, most up-to-date) presentations once the conference begins.
I opined some months ago that 2010 would be a watershed year for the Bakken. I think 2011 is going to be even stronger. Reliable analysts are now anticipating 165 drilling rigs in North Dakota. Currently there are about 146, although that number fluctuates as drilling rigs are moved across the state line into Montana.
I'm not exactly sure how to track active rigs, because if the number goes down, it may simply be a reflection of rigs moving into Montana. I don't have the resources (mostly, time) to also follow Montana in addition to North Dakota Bakken.
These conferences turn out to have the best (and, of course, most up-to-date) presentations once the conference begins.
I opined some months ago that 2010 would be a watershed year for the Bakken. I think 2011 is going to be even stronger. Reliable analysts are now anticipating 165 drilling rigs in North Dakota. Currently there are about 146, although that number fluctuates as drilling rigs are moved across the state line into Montana.
I'm not exactly sure how to track active rigs, because if the number goes down, it may simply be a reflection of rigs moving into Montana. I don't have the resources (mostly, time) to also follow Montana in addition to North Dakota Bakken.
Another Local Story on Oil Production Records
Oil production expected to set more records, Dickinson Press. (This link now requires a paid subscription; as noted before, stories from local papers are taken down quickly and available only by a paid subscription in many cases.) But this is what the story wall all about: the Tyler Formation.
Update: a reader alerted me to that "something else that is going on." It turns out Sinopec is buying another oilfield / division in a South American oil company. As China continues to snap up these companies with all their dollars, at some point folks are going to "perceive a shortage" in world oil reserves. This is the article.
But China is also buying US oil assets, according to this Forbes article, back in February, 2010.
I was in a hurry when I posted this and did not get a chance to comment on it. This is a much more interesting story than I first realized. I will post a stand-alone posting on this one.Oil price futures up another dollar before the market open, Friday, October 1, 2010, and nary a word what's pushing this. Everyone says it's tied to the weak dollar. To some extent, yes, but I think something else is going on. I'm thinking of the "S" shaped curve. The baseline of the curve is tied to strength of the dollar. The early part of the rising "S" curve is tied to "flight to safety" (hedge against inflation). The later part of the rising "S" curve is tied to "perceived shortage of oil." Look at the gold chart.
Update: a reader alerted me to that "something else that is going on." It turns out Sinopec is buying another oilfield / division in a South American oil company. As China continues to snap up these companies with all their dollars, at some point folks are going to "perceive a shortage" in world oil reserves. This is the article.
But China is also buying US oil assets, according to this Forbes article, back in February, 2010.
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