End-Of-Day Report -- Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Locator: 50803B.

WTI: $101.00

Active rigs: 26.

Three new permits, #42935 - #42937, inclusive:

• Operators: XTO (2); BR
• Fields: Bear Den (Dunn County); Haystack Butte (McKenzie County.
• Comments:
• BR has a permit for an HBU Sandstone well, SESE 15-148-98, 
• to be sited 795 FSL and 126 FEL; 
• XTO Energy has permits for two Ghostrider Federal wells, SWSE 6-148-96, 
• to be sited 835 FSL and 2504 / 2534 FEL. 

Six permits canceled:

• Zavanna (4): four Jersey permits, Williams County;
• Devon Energy (2):
• one Darlene Federal permit, McKenzie County; and,
• one Skaar permit, also McKenzie County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported completed:

• 40965, no ip, HBU Sakakawea Federal 13X-35F, McKenzie County;

******************************
Nullification

Current issue, Claremot Review of Books, Spring, 2026, page 33:

"John Quincy Adams and the Fourth of July," essay by Christopher Flannery. 

John Quincy Adams had served one term as president, having won the presidential election of 1824 by the smallest vote possible in the US House of Representatives. At a much young age, he had served his father, John Adams, as the elder's personal secretary. 

After losing that re-election campaign, his constituency "demanded" he return to represent them, and thus he began his storied second career in 1830 -- nine terms as a US representative for the state of Massachusetts. 

At some point during his presidency, "nullification" was in the air. Long story short, this debate / thinking ultimately let to the  US Civil War -- as far back as 1830 -- and even then it could be traced further back, to the 1790s when the doctrine of nullification was alleged to have been inserted in the Virginia and Kentucky resolutions. The doctrine simply stated that states had the right(s) to ignore any federal law they felt was unconstitutional. 

John Adams argued against "nullification"; it was his own VP John C. Calhoun who argues for "nullification."  

Wiki.

The 1830s crisis was resolved but it set the stage for future secession debates. 

This article really crossed my desk at the right time: I'm currently reading the annotated Memoirs of US Grant. 

CSCO -- May 13, 2026

Locator: 50802AAPL.

CSCO:

• shares pop 14% after hours;
• surging orders; and, 
• efficiency, due to AI, soars -- CISCO will cut 4,000 jobs.

CSCO: this is not a bubble. CSCO -- was one of two survivors from  the dot-com boom / bubble (2000), severely scarred but alive -- that which does not kill us, makes us stronger. After hours, CSCO pops 11% on earnings beat and strong guidance. 

Apple In China -- Cisco Surges — May 13, 2026

Locator: 50801AAPL.

Locator: 50801CSCO.

CSCO: this is not a bubble. CSCO -- was one of two survivors from the dot-com boom / bubble (2000), severely scarred but alive -- that which does not kill us, makes us stronger. After hours, CSCO pops 11% on earnings beat and strong guidance. 

NVDA: $5.5 trillion. 

AAPL: $4.36 trillion. 

MU: not yet in the trillion-dollar club. 

S&P 500: another record. 

BRKB: up 0.3%.

AAPL: hitting headlines and all-time highs.

What do China and the US have in common? They are the only two countries in the universe that have a GDP greater than NVDA's market cap. Link here.

Most impressive: Tim Cook was able to step down on his own at this time, step down in style and hand this off to a young man with a skill set different than his (Tim's). And I don't think anyone saw it coming. 

***********************************
The Book Page

Poolside; 2:56 p.m.CT -- 90°F with a high of 93°F forecast.  

Apple in China: The Caprure of the World's Greatest Company, Patrick McGee, c. 2025.

 

 

Apple Surges Today -- No Specific News Yet Regarding Tim Cook, Apple, And China Today -- May 13, 2026

Locator: 50800AAPL.

 

 

Foreign Exchange Reserves -- Russia, Saudi Arabia, China -- Posted May 13, 2026

Locator: 50799STORAGE.

Foreign exchange reserves: Russia, Saudi Arabia, China.

Russia, link here: posted May 13, 2026: 

Saudi, link here: posted May 13, 2026:

China, link here, posted May 13, 2026: 

The Importance Of The Moat -- May 13, 2026

Locator: 50798THEMOAT. 

Related, for the next generation and the generation after that:

• personal investing: how to invest in a "trillion-dollar-market-cap economy; and,
• financial independence.

****************************
The Importance Of The "Moat" 

Query:

Investing. Personal. Going through my notes, I look at the various periods of my investing life. 

One of the big investing lessons I learned about was "moats." Perhaps I learned this from Warren Buffett. I don't know. 

When investing, it seems when deciding in what to invest when it comes to equities, there are three "things" that take precedent over all else. 

Core competencies: one must be able to articulate a company's core competencies. One must understand "what business the business" is in. 

Moats: secondly, one must be able to articulate a company's moat. 

Lasting; thirdly, one must ask whether the company is championing an endeavor that will be around for 30 years. 

When looking at investment opportunities, #1 and #3 probably don't change much over time, but moats probably do. 

The first of the three: core competencies. Core competencies alone don't guarantee a successful company for the long term. No matter how good at what they did, horse-drawn wagon makers were not a good investment (at least for the long term). 

But moats are interesting. Right now, in the fourth industrial revolution, I would argue that one of the greatest moats is the "money moat." 

That's perhaps why the dot-com bubble (2000) collapsed: the hundreds of companies one could invest in -- few had much money. Companies were being valued on "eyeballs / clicks" and not on earnings, cash flow, access to quick cash to make deals.  

I would argue that when one is looking for which companies to invest in, the amount of cash on hand, or free cash flow, or something related to cash is incredibly important and the "money moat" is incredibly important to consider. Thoughts? 

Reply: 

 

Hantavirus -- May 13, 2026

Locator: 50797HANTA. 

This is the kind of research our Secretary of HHS prefers to kill.

Cramer's First Hour -- May 13, 2026

Locator: 50796CRAMER. 

NVDA: $5.5 trillion market cap. 

Sara Eisen on Cramer's first hour, best quote: "President Biden didn't even go to China, and there we have Team America -- Trump, Elon Musk and Jensen Huang -- coming off Air Force One after landing in Beijing. Markets love that." Eisen was as good as she ever was this morning.

Starlink: Elon Musk confirms Air Force One uses Starlink. 

NVDA: hits a 52-week high. That China trip? I'm lovin' it. 

China trip: only two CEOs on Air Force one -- I think it was Tim Cook and Citi CEO but Jensen Huang jumped on the plane at a refueling stop-over in Alaska. 

So, not sure if Air Force One landed with two or with three CEOs, but the presidential plane departed DC with only two CEOs. I'm sure Tim Cook was one; I thought the Citi CEO was the other one, but I really don't know. Chatbots will confirm if interested. A dozen other CEOs did show up in China but only by invite and one their own jets. Another example of how chatbots provide "bespoke journalism" -- other reporting delayed, hard to find, questionable accuracy ... but here's chatbot:

WTI: continues to move up. Coal? Coal is dead. Long live coal.  

April PPI (producer price index): significant increase; greater than expected. About 1% vs 0.4% estimated. Markets respond accordingly / as one might expect. Ignore the Covid-induced inflation and this is the highest inflation in 20 years. Whoo-hoo --- seniors will benefit with higher COLA for social security.

WTI: $102.20. 

Futures: futures suggest "much of" the tech losses from yesterday will be erased today. The Dow is down 230 points pre-market after PPI released; prior to PPI announcement the Dow looked pretty good, but after the PPI announcement, the Dow turned down even more. By 10:00 a.m. this morning, the PPI will have been forgotten -- other news will take its place. 

NASDAQ QQQ is actually up a couple of points.  

Micron: futures, up another 37 points. Amazing.  

Mortgage rates: move to highest level in five weeks, but homebuyers "shrug it off." We've had this discussion before. Within a range, mortgage rates have little effect on decision to buy or not buy. And, like everything else, to sell a house, a seller / realtor may have creative deals to offset any increase in mortgage rates. 

Semiconductors: PHXL. Top 30 components. Ticker SOX. 

Hantavirus update: it may be in draft form; if so it will be posted later. Link here. This is the kind of research our Secretary HHS prefers to "kill."

************************
Destinations
Pottery Manufacturing In North Carolina

This is so incredibly cool!

AI prompt: pottery manufacturing development near Spruce Spine, North Carolina. 

AI reply: while Spruce Pine, NC, is a major center for quartz mining and semiconductor-related industries, it is not a hub for traditional pottery manufacturing; that distinction belongs to Seagrove, NC, which is centuries old and known as the "Handmade Pottery Capital of the United States." 

Spruce Pine's industrial development focuses on high-purity minerals rather than clay-based arts and crafts.

Spruce Pine's Industrial Focus:

• Mining: Spruce Pine is at the heart of a significant mining district that supplies high-purity quartz used in manufacturing integrated circuits.
• Companies: The mines are primarily owned by global material solutions companies like Sibelco and The Quartz Corp.

North Carolina's Pottery Hub:

• Seagrove: The region historically known for pottery manufacturing is Seagrove, located in central North Carolina, which has a tradition dating back to the 18th century and is considered the "Handmade Pottery Capital of the United States."

Geography:

• Spruce Pine is three hours, almost directly, west of Seagrove, North Carolina
• Spruce Pine is more inland, northwest side of Charlotte, NC
• Seagrove is nearer the cost, on the northeast side of Charlotte, NC

For more: see this on the blog. 

Five Oilfield Services Stocks For A Post-Hormuz World -- May 13, 2026

Locator: 50795INVESTING. 

Two comments with regard to linked article below:

• except for Liberty Energy, did you really expect other names than the first four?
• the "stock tips" were not the most interesting thing about this story -- the most interesting thing about this story was the headline -- "a post-Hormuz world." 
• suggesting that this may be the new normal -- "a post-Hormuz world," Iran controlling and perhaps monetizing the strait.  

I've been saying the same thing for a couple of weeks: 

Every day longer the strait is closed, it makes the Mideast that much less relevant. 

Investing: five oilfield services stocks built for a post-Hormuz world. Link here. Michael Kern.

• SLB
• HAL
• BKR
• RIG
• Liberty Energy (LBRT)

Liberty Energy:

Every list like this needs a name that makes readers stop and say “wait, really?” Liberty is that name. It is small, it does one thing, and it has zero exposure to the Middle East and total exposure to the North American shale rebound that all four of the other companies on this list are counting on to varying degrees.

Q1 beat expectations quite convincingly. Revenue of $1.02 billion was up 4% year over year, EPS of $0.06 significantly exceeded a consensus that had modeled a loss of $0.13, and the stock jumped nearly 10% on the print.

The underlying margin picture is less tidy: EBITDA of $126 million was down 25% year over year, reflecting the pricing pressure that has been grinding through North American completions for the better part of three years.

CEO Ron Gusek’s answer to that pressure is technology. The company has built a software platform called StimCommander that automates rate and pressure control across its fleets in real time, and a cloud-based optimization system called Forge that aggregates performance data to continuously improve efficiency.

But.

If the Permian recovery stalls, or if prices fall faster than expected once the Hormuz situation eventually resolves, Liberty is where the pain shows up most visibly.

There is no international business to cushion the blow, no long-cycle backlog to fall back on. But that same concentration, which creates the downside risk, is exactly what makes the stock interesting if the early-innings thesis is right.

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

Locator: 50794B. 

Kratom: in the news. Link here. Etymology: Thai. 

Investing: five oilfield services stocks built for a post-Hormuz world. Link here. Michael Kern. 

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $101.70.

New wells reporting:

• Wednesday, May 13, 2026: 27 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 284 for the year, 
• 42197, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 7H, 
• 41451, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 32-29 5H, 
• Tuesday, May 12, 2026: 25 for the month, 125 for the quarter, 282 for the year, 
• 42262, conf, Petro-Hunt, John Williams 143-97-5B-8-3H, 
• 42199, conf, Kraken Operating, Turbodiesel 19-30-31-9H, 
• 41591, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-5,
• 41450, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 32-29 4H, 

RBN Energy: in a year of change, market fundamentals are key to understanding what comes next. Link here. Archived.

It’s been quite a year already — and we’re only four and a half months in! We began 2026 with energy markets looking very well supplied, with commodity prices generally expected to soften in the short term. But things quickly changed, first as a result of U.S. intervention in Venezuela, then much more dramatically with the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Prices have surged for crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, refined products and petrochemicals, along with the multitude of consumer products that utilize those feedstocks. Fortunes have been made (and lost) as a result. To survive such swings, you need a deep understanding of the fundamental forces impacting markets so that you can anticipate, identify and act on their secondary and tertiary effects. That’s the subject of today’s RBN blog and the focus of our upcoming School of Energy: Foundations, set for September 9-10 in Houston. Fair warning, today’s blog serves as an unabashed advertorial for the conference.

The swings in the global energy market have been significant so far in 2026, with the U.S. playing a pivotal role. There is no shortage of information and analysis out there, some of it seemingly contradictory. So, how do you know what data is important, which indicators to watch, and how to apply it all? Learning how to identify and analyze that information is what School of Energy is all about. To see how those pieces can come together, let’s look at some recent examples.

 

Eight New Permits; Eighteen Wells Approved For Confidential Status; Three Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Being Completed -- May 12, 2026

Locator: 50793B. 

Jensen Huang is on Air Force One en route to China with President Trump.

Investing: link here. 

Comment: WTI finished the day at $102.20. This is near the high end of the trading range ($90 - $106) for WTI for 1H26; the top being $106 in the current trading range. 

I pointed this out to Gemini and Gemini added this:

Resistance Levels: While you noted a high of $106, some analysts have identified key overhead resistance levels at $102.54 and higher, with some projections testing the $105 - $108 range as technical resistance. 

Drivers: The upward pressure is heavily influenced by the continued, effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant reduction in global oil supply.

Me? The breakout / resistance level is $106, with "a decision point" starting at $105.

• decision point: to either buy or sell equities based on whether WTI will go significantly higher.

So, when tuning into CNBC tomorrow, look for some taking head to suggest the resistance level at $106/bbl WTI.  

Do not confuse this with dated Brent which closed today at $107.77. 

Equities, closing prices today:

• CVX: $185.95, up 0.64% today;
• COP: $117.87, up 2.01% today;
• PSX: $175.43, up 0.04% today;
• OKE: $88.43; up 0.73% today;
• MPC: $251.99; up 11.85% the past month;
• VG: up 4% for the month;
• CAT: up 15% for the month;

*****************************
Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $102.20.

Active rigs: 23.

Eight new permits, #42927 - #42934, inclusive --

• Operators: Silver Hill Energy (4); Oasis (4); 
• Fields: North Tioga; Burke County;
• Comments:
• Silver Hill Energy has permits for four Jacie W wells, lot 2, section 6-159-93; 
• to be sited 350 / 575 FNL and 1484 / 1704 FWL;
• Oasis has permits for three Tunnock wells and one Jaffa well, lot 2, section 2-153-103; 
• to be sited 759 790 FNL and 2374 /2468 FEL.

Eighteen (18) wells approved for confidential status:

• Phoenix Operating: 11
• Enerplus: 7

Three permits renewed:

• Oasis (2); and, 
• Devon Energy (1). 

One permit canceled:

• a Formentera Operations permit.

Two producing wells (two DUCs) were reported as completed:

• 40966, no ip, XTO, HBU Sakakawea Federal 13X-35A, McKenzie County; 
• 41553, no ip, XTO, HBU Baptiste Federal 34X-11C, Williams County; 
• well of interest: #17298 -- jump in production, halo effect;  

AI -- Chatbots -- A Meme -- May 12, 2026

Locator: 50792CHATBOTS. 

Whenever I mention that I am a big user of chatbots, I am reminded that chatbots are not infallible, that chatbots often make mistakes. Well, imagine that.

That's fine, that has become a meme. I think most sentient beings (with "sentient" being used in the widest meaning of the word) understand / know that chatbots are indeed fallible (Spanish: falible; propenso a errores; and, que puede fallar).  

But, wow, mainstream media (supposedly edited and proofread) and talking heads on "news" programs are much, much worse when it comes to propenso a errores.

The word I particularly dislike when it comes to AI / chatbots: slop. I think most folks are misusing and/or misunderstand that word. I know I do (misunderstand that word). I have to frequently look it up, I get so confused because of the way folks use that word. For the older generations, those born before 1951, "slop" is generally understood to the be food waste that is fed to pigs. 

I did not know this, the newer generation has another definition for slop: in modern slang, the term is applied to "slop bowls" from fast-casual restaurants (e.g., CAVA, Chipotle) which are customizable, mixed, and efficient meals.

By the way, what is the Spanish word for AI slop? It turns out, that to date, there is no one good Spanish word that captures the nuance of the American word "slop" when used with AI.

The best Spanish can do:

• basura de AI
• basura generada por AI
• contenido basura
• contenido de baja calidad
• gachupenida de AI
• vomitivo
• slop
• AI slop

If I were a Spanish teacher, teaching to English-speaking students, I know how I would spend the first two weeks. I think two weeks of intensive studying the basics of Spanish grammar one could become fluent quite quickly. 

Cramer's First Hour -- May 12, 2026

Locator: 50791CRAMER. 

An uneventful first hour. 

CPI: core year/year inflation slightly higher than expected. 

Energy: it looks like it's going to be a huge day for oil and gas. 

• Dow opening: - 100  
• S&P opening: - 30
• NASDAQ opening: - 200

WTI: up 3%; opens at $101.60

Anthropic: from several days ago. Link here. 80x vs 10x anticipated.

Three Links From Beth Yesterday -- May 12, 2026

Locator: 50790BETH. 

Nvidia: will generate more than $400 billion free cash flow across calendar 2026 and 2027, more than Apple, META, Amazon, and Google combined. Let that sink in.

Link here. 

TSM: reportedly accelerating its 3nm ramp this year -- looking to increase capacity by 40% y/y and 20% higher than original expectations.

Link here. 

Amazon: from the company -- it's going to cost a lot more to build, and the faster we grow/build, the faster the increase in CAPEX -- it typically takes 6 to 24 months to monetize what we're doing.

Link here. 

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Locator: 50789B. 

CPI: numbers not unexpected but generally a bit higher than expected. If that makes sense. 

Tech: Mag 7 -- the decline in raw numbers will get the attention of a lot of folks but the change in percentage numbers, and particularly looking at year numbers -- not alarming. Most surprising: AAPL.

WTI: reflects Trump's comments on the ceasefire.

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $101.40. 

New wells being reported:

• Wednesday, May 13, 2026: 27 for the month, 127 for the quarter, 284 for the year, 
• 42197, conf, Kraken, Apollo 18-7-6 7H, 
• 41451, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 32-29 5H, 
• Tuesday, May 12, 2026: 25 for the month, 125 for the quarter, 282 for the year, 
• 42262, conf, Petro-Hunt, John Williams 143-97-5B-8-3H, 
• 42199, conf, Kraken Operating, Turbodiesel 19-30-31-9H, 
• 41591, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-5,
• 41450, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 32-29 4H, 

RBN Energy: changing dynamics have the northeast gas market poised for a reawakening. Link here. Archived.

After being in virtual limbo the past couple of years, the U.S. Northeast gas market is reawakening. New pipeline development is, well, no longer a pipe dream. Pipeline projects to expand connectivity between Appalachia and demand centers are moving forward for the first time in years, including into the previously off-limits New York/New Jersey and New England market areas. Regional flow dynamics are poised to shift as expansions debottleneck production and pathways out of the Appalachia producing region, deepening seasonal patterns. At the same time, structural changes, such as coal retirements and data centers, are driving baseload demand growth in parts of the region. Today’s RBN blog begins a series evaluating the impacts of these changing fundamentals on the Northeast gas market outlook.

While all eyes in the gas market have been on the dramatic changes happening along the Gulf Coast, the Northeast has been quietly evolving in ways that will not only shift flow patterns within the region but also affect flows to the Gulf Coast. (For more on the Gulf Coast, see RBN’s Arrow Model, a proprietary analytic model that tracks and forecasts shifting gas pipeline flows in Texas and Louisiana.) Before looking ahead to the inflection points on the horizon, it’s worth considering how the Northeast got here, which is the focus of today’s blog. 

We start with some definitions. The Northeast gas market comprises 14 states (green-shaded areas in Figure 1): Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and West Virginia. These states are further broken up into the demand-driven New England and Mid-Atlantic market areas, including the New York and New Jersey metros, and the Appalachia producing region, with the Marcellus/Utica shale plays situated primarily within Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. We further delineate production in Pennsylvania by northeastern counties (blue area in the inset), which yield more dry gas supply, and western and southern counties (yellow area), which yield more liquids-rich gas.

Figure 1. Northeast Gas Market Region. Source: RBN

End-Of-Day Report -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50788B. 

WTI: $98.42. 

Active rigs: 23

Five new permits, #42921 - #42925, inclusive:

• Operator: Devon Energy
• Field: Camp, McKenzie County
• Comments: 
• Devon has permits for five Lindvig wells, SENE 23-152-101; 
• to be sited 2111 / 2241 FNL and 892 / 901 FEL.

Three permits renewed:

• XTO (3): 
• #31231 - #31233 inclusive --  
• three Lawlar permits, SWSE 10-151-99, Tobacco Garden, McKenzie.
• Lawlar wells are tracked here; 

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 40150, 1,387, BR, Phantom Backbone 7D-ULW, SWSE 22-152-97;  

Target Struggling -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50787AI. 

Target (TGT): three days of losses for the TGT shares. Link here. 

• retail struggling and it's the low end stores (Dollar General, etc.)

AI revolution: what if it turns out that this is not a bubble? Link here. 

***************************
The Science Page

August 10, 2025: possibly the second largest global tsunami; link here.

• the only one known to be higher is a 1958 earthquake-triggered wave in Lituy Bay, Alaska
• that one: 1,720 feet
• the August 10, 2025: 
• the Tracy Arm fjord, south of Juneau, Alaska
• the fjord is the outlet for the South Sawyer Glacier
• the tsunami reached 1,578 feet
• New York's One World Trade Center: 1,368 feet (not including its spire)
• formed a seiche, only the second time such a "wave" has been recorded
• seiche: a standing wave
• sloshed back and forth in the fjord for over a day

***************************
The Natural Science Page

Darwin: finches
Beale: whales

Moby-Dick, Herman Melville

OPENAI -- Long, Long Interview On CNBC -- Deployco -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50786AI. 
Locator: 50786IRAN. 

One.

One of the reasons I quit watching CNBC as of February 28, 2026, was because the talking heads on "Fast Money" were tracking the wrong metrics. It was tedious, frustrating. [On/about May 4, 2026, I started watching CNBC again, now that the war is status quo / stalemate.] [Later, May 12, 2026 -- Susan Stroud over at x found the quote that perhaps says what I was trying to say, from Aristotle:

"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers."] 

Finally, the lightbulb (for me) went on -- see the CNBC interview this morning with Denise Dresser, OpenAI's chief revenue officer. I can't articulate what she said that changed (in my mind) but it's tectonic. Dresser said it but I have not seen other talking heads say it on CNBC. But here it is again:

 "A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers."

Two.

Along that same line, the situation in the Iran-US situation has changed immensely. We're in a long, prolonged "conflict" of some sort, yet to be determined what sort of conflict it is.

The president calls the ceasefire "on life support."

Everything suggests there is an internal disagreement between "State" and "War" with regard to:

• long-term goals (strategic goals, ten to twenty years out); and,
• ultra-short-term goals (one month); and, 
• short-term goals (six months -- before elections this autumn); and,
• medium term goals (two years -- before presidential election).

Also likely, an internal disagreement between the president's advisors and Netanyahu. 

Red herrings -- these no longer matter -- head fakes -- headlines but they distract journalists from the real stories:

• the closure of the strait;
• enriched uranium; 

What convinced me:

• WTI has not yet spiked to $120, much less $200;
• Saudi says it will be able to surpass crude oil exports from previous highs; 
• the new export number? 12 million bopd;
• "everybody" is making huge amounts of money on oil due to price; no one is complaining except consumers;
• as China replaces oil with coal where it can, the rest of the world will find the oil it needs which is the oil that China is giving up;
• LNG is a problem for one country: Pakistan 
• when Macron says he has no interest in helping to open the strait, it tells me that no one cares
• but it provides an excuse for Hegseth to remain in the region; the US Navy will probably "never" leave the Mideast again, -- except under a sleeping president or incompetent president (of which there are many candidates)

What matters:

• MAGA;
• the Monroe Doctrine;

Chart Of The Day -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50785CAT. 

 

In Texas, Everything Is Bigger -- FLEX Has Had A Huge Year -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50784LDCs.
Locator: 50784TEXAS. 

Query: 

Flex is an international multiconglomerate out of Singapore. It provides solutions, AC to DC, for LDCs. Who competes with US LDCS for that same support? 

Reply: 

Query:

Specifically, what does FLEX and its subsidiaries do for LDCs?

Reply:

Geo-Politics, Investing -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50783ARCHIVES.

Macron: this tells me all I need to know about the standoff in the strait. Link here.

NASDAQ 100: largest holdings. Link here. Includes WMT and COST.

Cramer's First Hour -- May 11, 2026

Locator: 50782INVESTING.

Iran: more and more the market looks like it's ignoring Iran. 

WTI: backed down from its high overnight. 

Fed's Jay Powell to step down as Chairman this Friday, but says he will remain on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until 2028. 

AAPL: down 0.8%. 

Wendy's: under huge pressure. Some talk that "it may not make it." Did I hear that correctly? Needs to be fact-checked. See below. 

QCOM: is this the proxy for this market right now? Up 13% today; up $28 at the open. Cramer and Faber: there's not one reason for QCOM to be up this much this morning, or up at all.

GLW: up 4%; up $8 at the open.

SCCO: up 2.5%; up $5 at the open. 

MU:

***************************************
Wendy's

Query:

Did someone suggest Wendy's is at risk of failing? 

Reply: 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.

Longer version here.

WTI Trending Back Toward $100 -- US Equity Market Flat At Open? May 11, 2026

Locator: 50781B.  

Saudi: says it will soon be able to export 12 million bopd -- that exceeds what they actually exported in the past.

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Back to the Bakken 

WTI: $98.12. US rejects Iran's proposal for ending war.

New wells reporting: 

• Tuesday, May 12, 2026: 25 for the month, 125 for the quarter, 282 for the year, 
• 42262, conf, Petro-Hunt, John Williams 143-97-5B-8-3H, 
• 42199, conf, Kraken Operating, Turbodiesel 19-30-31-9H, 
• 41591, conf, Hess, EN-Trout-157-93-3130H-5,
• 41450, conf, Devon Energy, Wagenman 32-29 4H, 
• Monday, May 11, 2026: 21 for the month, 121 for the quarter, 278 for the year, 
• 41641, conf, Devon Energy, Marvin 27-34-XW 1H, 
• 42239, conf, Petro-Hunt, Edgar Lea Weems 144-97-32C-29-3H, 
• 42200, conf, Kraken Operating, Turbodiesel LE 19-30-31 10H, 
• Sunday, May 10, 2026: 18 for the month, 118 for the quarter, 275 for the year, 
• 41739, conf, Hess, EN-Rohde-LE-157-94-3625H-1, 
• Saturday, May 9, 2026: 17 for the month, 117 for the quarter, 274 for the year, 
• 41844, conf, Hunt Oil, Kandiyohi 159-90-5-17H-2, 

RBN Energy: surge in US crude exports ups estimates of what Gulf Coast terminals can handle. Link here. Archived. 

The monthslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz has spurred a dramatic ramp-up in crude oil exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) this spring as a wide range of international buyers scrambled to replace oil stranded in the Persian Gulf. That surge in U.S. exports has prompted two big questions: (1) how much crude oil can USGC marine terminals reliably send out on a sustained basis and (2) does the region need more crude export capacity, especially if the Iran conflict drags on and buyers increasingly turn to U.S. suppliers to fill the gap. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss recent USGC export volumes, what they reveal about the region’s true export limits, and how the region’s export capacity could be impacted by Sentinel Midstream’s newly sanctioned Texas GulfLink project. 

Estimates vary, but given that some 12 MMb/d of crude oil had been transiting the Strait of Hormuz prior to the Iran conflict, it’s safe to say that more than 800 MMbbl of predominantly light and medium sour oil has failed to exit the Persian Gulf region since hostilities began on February 28 (70-odd days times ~12 MMbbl). There’s no way that massive volume of crude can be replaced in short order, but the countries that had been the most dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iran have been doing their best to find alternative sources — and fast! — for as much replacement oil as they can get their hands on.

The U.S. has, of course, been a primary source due to its abundance of mostly light sweet shale oil and — thanks to the ongoing release of 172 MMbbl from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) — substantial volumes of medium sour oil too. (Of the 86 MMbbl the U.S. offered in its first SPR tranche in April and May, a hefty 76 MMbbl was medium sour; the other 10 MMbbl was light sweet.) According to RBN’s weekly Crude Voyager report, USGC terminals sent out more than 5 MMb/d for a record three weeks in a row: more than 5.1 MMb/d the week ended April 17, an all-time high of 5.8 MMb/d the week ended April 24, and nearly 5.7 MMb/d the week ended May 1. As shown in Figure 1 below, terminals in Corpus Christi sent out nearly 3.1 MMb/d the most recent week (light-blue layer), while Houston-area terminals exported just over 2 MMb/d and terminals in Beaumont, TX, (orange layer) and Louisiana (lavender layer) shipped 214 Mb/d and 350 Mb/d, respectively.

Figure 1. Weekly Gulf Coast Crude Oil Exports. Source: Crude Voyager

The Book Page -- Ulysses S Grant -- May 10, 2026

Locator: 50780LIFEWRITING.  

For the writer in our family.  

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The Book Page

I'm reading The Annotated Memoirs of Ulysses S Grant. The editor uses the phrase "life writing" rather than "autobiography."

Query: do English and literature scholars prefer the term "life writing" to autobiography? 

Reply:

Sweetgreen (SG) 1Q26 Earnings Transcript -- May 10, 2026

Locator: 50779SWEETGREEN. 

Link here. 

Some think the CEO is completely out to lunch (pun intended). 

From the CEO, with regard to their wraps:  

Early in development, we were unable to find a tortilla in the foodservice market that met our standards. So we partnered to create one made with only 4 ingredients: extra virgin olive oil, unbleached and unenriched wheat flour, sea salt and water, with no preservatives. 

Guests can taste and feel the difference with social reviews consistently highlighting the quality and flavor of the tortilla. 

The energy around the test leading into yesterday's launch has been incredible. Wraps are already appearing in a meaningful share of social content tagging Sweetgreen with positive sentiment of around 85%. 

Guests are responding to the value with entry price points starting at $10.45 and ranging up to $14.95.  

These were the entry price points: as high as $14.95.

Morningstar -- Sunday Night Futures -- May 10, 2026

Locator: 50778IRAN. 

Late this evening Trump said Iran's reply to the US 14-point proposal to end the war was "totally unacceptable."

From Morningstar about half-an-hour ago, link here: 

Forget the "raw" numbers, look at the percents:

• Dow: down 0.3%;
• S&P 500: down 0.2%;
• NASDAQ-100: down 0.1%.

Inconsequential.

WTI: trending toward $100 again. 

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The Medical Page

Link here. 

The "routines":

• treatment of actinic keratoses:
• Synthroid for subclinical hypothyroidism; and,
• routine colonoscopies after age 76.

The biggie of course is routine colonoscopy after age 76. Family practice physicians call it "aging out for routine colonoscopies."

Cream Of Tartar; Meringue -- For A Reader -- May 10, 2026

Locator: 50777MERINGUE. 

This entry is for a certain reader, who I am told, reads the blog religiously. I did not know that, or course. 

I know she is a recent college graduate but not much more than that. It does not matter. I simply wanted to post something that she might enjoy, now that I know she reads the blog every day.  

Somehow "meringue" came up in our discussion earlier today about desserts while celebrating "Mother's Day." Our oldest granddaughter was part of the discussion. We always joke that she knows something about everything. 

I knew meringue was egg whites and sugar, but our oldest granddaughter reminded us that meringue generally includes cream of tartar. I didn't know why cream of tartar was used but later I asked: 

Query: What is important about an "acidic" agreement when mixing egg white and sugar to prepare meringue?

Reply:  

I was well aware of cream of tartar and its use in cooking but never asked why until now.

And, then as she usually does, our granddaughter casually mentioned / asked / suggested that cream of tartar was a by-product of wine-making. I had never heard that, but I was curious and the two of us looked it up, and yes, indeed, she was correct: 

So, there you have it: the source of cream of tartar, why it's important, how it works, and perhaps the most common reason cooks use it.

Never in a million years would I have guessed it is related to wine-making but granddaughter did. How she knows all this stuff, I have no idea, but it really does seem that she knows at least something about everything. 

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The Book Page

The Annotated Memoirs of Ulysses S. Grant, Edited With An Introduction By Elizabeth D. Samet, c. 2019.  

I've read his Memoirs twice, and maybe parts of his Memoirs several times. I doubt I will ever read the complete annotated volume edited by Elizabeth D Samet, and I won't read it from start to finish, but will read the parts I want to read when I want to read them and in the order I want to read them.

Tonight, of course, I'm reading her introduction. Absolutely fascinating.

A list of the authors US Grant and his fellow students read when they were at the US Military Academy (West Point):

• Edward Bulwer-Lytton: eclectic, versatile
• James Fenimore Cooper
• Frederick Marryat: seafaring novels
• Walter Scott
• Washington Irving, a local celebrity living near West Point in the Hudson Valley
• Charles James Lever 

The editor's information on Sir Walter Scott and his (Walter Scott's) connection to the US Civil War is an incredible piece of sleuthing and/or observation.  

The Unemployment Report For April, 2026 -- One Big "Nothing-Burger" -- May 10, 2026

Locator: 50776UEMPLOYMENT. 

The WSJ reported on the unemployment numbers released two days ago. 

Link here.

One might also check the analyses by the CNBC folks on Friday after these numbers came out. 

Another WSJ story on this jobs report: link here. 

To help put this story in perspective: link here. 

I found it amazing how "everyone" from CNBC to WSJ tried to paint the story that this was a report that reflected badly on the Trump administration and somehow related to the Iran war, the blockade, the high price of gasoline, and the tariffs and so on and so one.

 

The report Friday was one big "nothing burger" but was surprisingly good considering the country's headwinds. 

Trump: Iran's Reply -- DOA -- "Totally Unacceptable!" Sunday, May 10, 2026

Locator: 50775IRAN. 

Later: tomorrow could be a buying opportunity, link here. See this blog's disclaimer. Link here. 

Will Netanyahu determine the next move? "The war is not over."

Oil: currently up 62 cents, trading at $95.42. We're all curious where WTI will be once trading begins later today or tomorrow morning. My hunch: Netanyahu and Trump will strike when and where they want.  

Five minutes later -- all green! And not by just a little. After Trump rejects Iran's response as totally unacceptable: 

This gives traders full allowance to take profits Monday morning. Futures are "red" this evening.

The question is whether "bombing" will commence before Monday morning?  

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. 

I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon.

Longer version here. 

In The Queue For Later Today -- May 10, 2026

Locator: 50774ARCHIVES. 

In the queue:

• US unemployment
• dividends in May
• Sweetgreen
• Chips, WSJ update
• Medical recommendations for seniors
• UK: Keir Starmer's party lost big (NPR). Look who won: NPR will have trouble reporting this:

How bad was it for Keir Starmer?

 US unemployment from Gemini's perspective:

US labor force participation -- pay close attention -- this is getting serious -- amazing "they" can get to such precision: "tenth" participation. Most recent report also revealed absolutely no "wage inflation."