Locator: 51346WEALTHTRANSFER.
Tag: wealth transfer intergenerational
Intergenerational wealth transfer: has now reached $120 trillion over the next 20 years. Gemini suggests taking an annual "salary" of $70,000, a one-million-dollar inheritance will last fourteen to eighteen years.
More:
Locator: 51345MARKET.
Futures: futures suggest it's a great time for stock picking traders.
The consumer is doing just fine, thank you. I consider Burger King and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen as focused on those consumers in the lower to lower-middle class demographics.
Intergenerational wealth transfer: has now reached $120 trillion over the next 20 years. Gemini suggests taking an annual "salary" of $70,000, a one-million-dollar inheritance will last fourteen to eighteen years.
Dow at record high.
Dow is on pace for best week since June, 2025.
AAPL: right now, three hours from market opening, AAPL is up almost $3/share.
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Disclaimer
Briefly:
I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken. I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution. I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom. Now, I've added Amazon. And QCOM. Longer version here.
Locator: 49898WEALTH.
Generational wealth transfer.
Most recent blog on intergenerational wealth transfer. Link here.
Locator: 49734WEALTH.
Tag: generational wealth transfer
Updates
January 17, 2026: link here to The Wall Street Journal.
Original Post
Intergenerational wealth transfer! Wow, wow, wow! Corient commercial this morning is now "reporting" that the intergenerational wealth transfer will be $124 trillion! That has been a recent story on the blog. The bigger story, not being reported: like everything else in life, this $124 trillion will not be evenly distributed across all income levels.
Briefly:
Locator: 49734WEALTH.
Intergenerational wealth transfer! Wow, wow, wow! Corient
commercial this morning is now "reporting" that the intergenerational
wealth transfer will be $124 trillion! That has been a recent story on
the blog. The bigger story, not being reported: like everything else in
life, this $124 trillion will not be evenly distributed across all
income levels.
Briefly:
Locator: 49420WEALTH.
From AI:
The "Great Wealth Transfer" is estimated to involve tens of trillions of dollars, with figures ranging from $84 trillion to over $124 trillion. This massive amount is expected to be passed from older generations, primarily Baby Boomers, to younger generations like Gen X and Millennials over the next few decades.
While many sources cite the $84 trillion figure, others predict the total could be higher, with one estimate projecting over $100 trillion.
- $84 trillion: A frequently cited estimate for the total wealth transfer over the next two decades, according to Comerica Bank, Bankrate, and Citizens Bank.
- $85 trillion: Another estimate for the amount to be passed down from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to Gen X and Millennials.
- $124 trillion: A higher-end estimate for the total intergenerational wealth transfer over the next two decades, as reported by ASPPA, U.S. Bank, and Alkami Technology.
- Over $100 trillion: A more recent estimate from CNBC and Investments & Wealth Institute.
Two links:
Fortune, link here:
Merrill Lynch, link here.
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Autumn In North Texas
Locator: 49327IRAS.
The story is here. Nothing in the story caught my attention. All old reporting. Except for this nugget. Finally an answer to the question I've been asking for years: how much money is tied up in inherited IRAs.
Inherited IRA planning is important amid the “great wealth transfer,” with more than $100 trillion expected to change hands through 2048.
That's over $4 trillion / year for 23 years. Much of that money will be poured back into the US stock market. And the US government is going to take a lot back in taxes.
From Septermber 11, 2025, link here.
RMDs: so, anyway, were you able to answer the question I asked above -- where is all this money coming from?
Click on this tag: wealth transfer. My wife has already taken her RMD for this year; she's now watching her IRA surging -- gaining way more than she ever imagined and she's itching to make another withdrawal. It takes all I can do to have her wait to January 1, 2026, to take her 2026 RMD. I may or may not win that battle. LOL. But that's where a lot of this money is coming from.
Naysayers will say my argument is circular; I don't reply. The naysayers simply don't get it.
Boeing: on a day that the three major market indices hit all-time highs (needs to be fact-checked) Boeing fell $7.50 or 3.3% -- mostly likely due to this:
Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said on Thursday that the planemaker is behind schedule on certifying the 777-9, its newest widebody jet.
The company expects to deliver the first 777X jet in 2026, six years later than anticipated when the program was launched in 2013.
A “mountain of work” remains to certify the plane, but no new technical problems have been identified.
But “even a minor schedule delay on the 777 program has a pretty big financial impact” for the company, which has already lost several billion dollars on the program.
Inflationary pressure across Boeing’s supply chain is affecting airplane pricing.
Microsoft: holy mackerel! MSFT popped $10 today, after-hours.
AI suggests: Anthropic partnership: On September 11, Yahoo Finance reported that Microsoft will use AI models from Anthropic—a company with funding from Amazon and Alphabet—to power Microsoft Office applications. The news suggests that Microsoft is diversifying its AI partnerships beyond its close ties with OpenAI, which is a positive sign for investors.
Comment: it's getting near-impossible for regulators to sort out what's a monopoly and what isn't. If one thought the oil companies had the market on obfuscation and shell games, the magnificent seven / great eight are raising that art form to a new level.
TILT. "Fast Money," CNBC, things I learned today or things that were mentioned in passing by the talking heads:
Something to watch: the Ellison father-son duo.
When Skydance acquired Paramount, the Ellison family and their partners bought control of the media giant, gaining a vast library of content across film and television, including Paramount Pictures, CBS, MTV, and Nickelodeon, in exchange for providing capital to strengthen the combined company's finances and technology infrastructure.
The deal integrated Skydance's production expertise and technological capabilities with Paramount's global distribution and creative assets, forming a new entity that is publicly traded under the "PSKY" ticker on the Nasdaq.
Disney: is watching closely. Media -- whether it's legacy libraries or new content, whether it's linear television or streaming -- all media is looking really good right now. Something completely unexpected. One word: sports.
Sports: if one is having trouble understanding this "media" mania, maybe one needs to look at the value of professional sports teams, particularly the value of NFL teams. But there's more: see lacrosse below and teh WNBA when Caitlin is playing.
YouTube videos: driving folks to Amazon Prime, YouTube TV, Paramount, MGM, etc.
Exhibit A: last night I watched a 30-minute document on the "The Best Cinematography I've Ever Seen." Link to the video here. Link to the backstory here. In that documentary there were several movies I had not seen; I now want to watch them. Many of them are on Paramount -- I have the choice: subscribe to Paramount, or rent / but the movie via Amazon.
Premier Lacrosse League: apparently a big big announcement today; I haven't found the announcement yet; CEO opening line: "... if you bring in the Ellisons ..." -- that says it all. See note above regarding the value of sports teams and Paramount. Premier Lacrosse League, wiki. Posted five hours ago.
RMDs: so, anyway, were you able to answer the question I asked above -- where is all this money coming from?
Click on this tag: wealth transfer. My wife has already taken her RMD for this year; she's now watching her IRA surging -- gaining way more than she ever imagined and she's itching to make another withdrawal. It takes all I can do to have her wait to January 1, 2026, to take her 2026 RMD. I may or may not win that battle. LOL. But that's where a lot of this money is coming from.
Naysayers will say my argument is circular; I don't reply. The naysayers simply don't get it.
All the above written during "Fast Money." Now a few minutes of Cramer before I take Sophia to soccer -- Jim Cramer's opening thesis was exactly correct. It will be interesting to watch his thesis play out. His bottom line: the bears have not participated in this rally and if things don't turn around for them, they're going to have a miserable fourth quarter and an even more miserable full year report. Exhibit A: BRK.
The next big thing -- many, many story lines:
A "crypto card Visa" is a type of payment card, typically a prepaid debit or credit card, offered by cryptocurrency platforms like Crypto.com and Coinbase, that allows users to spend their cryptocurrencies at Visa-accepting merchants. The card automatically converts your crypto holdings into fiat currency at the point of sale, enabling seamless transactions at millions of locations worldwide, similar to a traditional Visa card, but with the added benefit of earning crypto-related rewards.
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Locator: 48632WEALTH.
Chart of the day: AAPL up another $3 today. Tim will be pleased. So far, no mention by CNBC or the mainstream media that Tim Cook / Apple just bought more office space in the Bay Area to hand upwards of 2,000 more employees -- about the number needed to absorb OpenAI / Perplexity into Siri.
JOLTS job openings: numbers this morning are (much) better than expected. Even Sara Eisen noted that. Job openings are much better than expected.
The Fed chairman speaks. When he speaks, CNBC listens:
Futures were red this morning.
After JPow's comments this morning, the Dow surged 100 points. The NASDAQ is still slightly red but that's mostly due to the new kerfuffle between Trump and Musk that began in the past 24 hours.
JPow's comments suggest the Fed was not acting on data, but was fearful of Trump's tariffs. And in a faux pas, JPow said the Fed did not over-react -- he quickly corrected himself and said the Fed did not react to the tariffs. But confirmed that the Fed was not acting on data alone.
Why did the image of Pinocchio just flash in front of me?
Trump and JPow: right, wrong, or indifferent, Trump has only himself to blame if he thinks JPow is not lowering the Fed rate fast enough.
Trump telegraphed crushing tariffs that everyone "knew" would send inflation sky-high, only to remind us later, that his negotiating style is in "the art of the deal." Threaten with huge tariffs, then negotiate, explaining what he was really looking for (an improved balance of trade), and back down from high tariffs. The Fed could only assume we would see high tariffs and high inflation and they had to keep rates unchanged.
Now, tariffs are moderating to about what they were a year ago and "no" inflation due to tariffs is being seen by most folks. Even behind close doors, private phone calls with JPow might have helped Trump get what he wanted.
Having said that, all economic indicators suggest there's been no general harm to the US by keeping rates unchanged for the past six months.
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Rambling Today
The one big, beautiful bill.
It will be passed because the alternative -- not signing the bill will result in biggest tax increase in years and push the US into a recession -- no one is going to let that happen.
So, one way or another the bill is going to be passed.
Without a lot of what Trump is asking for, the debt will likely increase another $4 trillion or so, maybe $5 trillion.
With all the things Trump is asking for, the debt might increase by only $3 trillion.
Regardless, $4 trillion or $3 trillion -- that's a huge stimulus. And, yes, the investor class will do better than the non-investor class. If folks don't understand that, well ... what can I say.
This is Cramer's thesis.
"The Robinhood generation" is a metonym for the way young investors are investing compared to "old school."
The Robinhood theory of investment is turning "old school" on its head. BRK, Costco, Nvidia over five years:
The bow wave of intergenerational transfer of wealth is now receding.
From AI: the baby boomer generation peaked in population in 1999, with nearly 79 million individuals. This peak included those born between 1946 and 1964, encompassing the post-World War II baby boom. The U.S. Census Bureau defines baby boomers as individuals born between mid-1946 and mid-1964.
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Schwab ETFs
I talk about the Schwab ETFs often.
This popped up yesterday. Link here.
JPMorgan, flashback, March 21, 2025: link here. You have to wade through a lot of verbiage to get to this, buried deep in the "article":
We would not let the bulls nor the bears derail our investment plans.
Remember everything that markets have experienced since the COVID-19 drawdown five years ago:
- inflation reaching the highest level since the 1980s;
- global central bank rate hikes;
- the Russian invasion of Ukraine;
- bank failures; and,
- two changes in the U.S. Presidential administration.
The S&P 500 increased more than +150%.
Locator: 48631WEALTH.
July 1, 2025: the
important thing to note here: the amount of money to be passed to the
next generations in the US has long been stated to be $84 trillion.
Somewhere along the way that was updated to $124 trillion.
This is Cramer's thesis.
"The Robinhood generation" is a metonym for the way young investors are investing compared to "old school."
The Robinhood theory of investment is turning "old school" on its head. BRK, Costco, Nvidia over five years:
The bow wave of intergenerational transfer of wealth is now receding.
From AI: the baby boomer generation peaked in population in 1999, with nearly 79 million individuals. This peak included those born between 1946 and 1964, encompassing the post-World War II baby boom. The U.S. Census Bureau defines baby boomers as individuals born between mid-1946 and mid-1964.
Locator: 48683WEALTH.
July 12, 2025: link here. The numbers keep increasing.
Members of the so-called forgotten generation -- Generation X — now aged 45 to 60 — stand to receive $1.4 trillion annually over the next decade, according to a new report from Cerulli Associates, as their baby boomer parents get older and die. Mostly just a paid advertisement for financial services disguised as a financial news story.
July 1, 2025: the important thing to note here: the amount of money to be passed to the next generations in the US has long been stated to be $84 trillion. Somewhere along the way that was updated to $124 trillion.
Updates
May 25, 2025: the data below has been posted before. But -- and this is much more important -- we are just entering the sixth industrial revolution.
And with that, here's the update as of today, ChatGPT: $124 trillion will be passed down by 2048, primarily from Baby Boomers (99%) and the Silent Generation (1%) to their heirs.
This unprecedented shift is reshaping financial planning. Most of this $148 trillion will go to women: wives and daughters and granddaughter and great-granddaughters.
And folks are worried about the national debt? LOL. Democratic administrations will tax the heck out of this. First to be taxed: Roth IRAs. Next? For top earners, the end of social security as "they" know it. And finally,
Original Post
Inter-generational wealth transfer. Liz Ann Sonders. A recurrent theme on the blog. Link here. Demographics. Wealth transfer.
OFR MMFs (my favorite chart): link here.
From OpenGPT:
The United States is currently undergoing the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in history, with an estimated $84 trillion expected to pass from Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation to their heirs by 2045. Notably, women are poised to inherit a significant portion of this wealth, marking a substantial shift in financial dynamics.
Several factors contribute to this trend:
Longer Life Expectancy: Women tend to outlive men, resulting in many inheriting assets from spouses before passing them on to the next generation.
Changing Family Dynamics: Increased divorce rates and evolving family structures have led to more women independently managing and inheriting wealth.
Educational and Professional Advances: Younger generations of women are attaining higher education levels and entering the workforce in greater numbers, enhancing their financial literacy and earning potential.
Updates
December 8, 2024: within hours after posting the orinal note, Carl posted this note on Bluesky:
Social media comments (aka nattering nabobs of negativity) suggest some / many folks don't realize this is already occurring and will continue to snowball. Less important: a single curve. More important: the sum of the three (four?) curves). A fifth curve will start by 2048.
Simple arithmetic: 46 + 15 + 39 = $100 trillion.
Note: most folks will fixate on the yellow line after 2040. But importantly, right now, the yellow line is around $750 billion, or rounding to $1 trillion. To put that in perspective, MMFs are holding about $7 trillion. MMFs become a "holding tank" while heirs decide what to do with their cash inheritance.
The yellow line in 2048, will consist of only six people (mostly Democrats):
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The Book Page
Three books from Half-Price Books today; 20% off for Memorial Day.
From the jacket, God Save Texas:
GodSave Texas is a journey through the most controversial state in America. It is a red state, but the cities are blue and among the most diverse in the nation. Oil is still king, but Texas now leads California in technology exports. Low taxes and minimal regulation have produced extraordinary growth, but also striking income disparities. Texas looks a lot like the America that Donald Trump wants to create.
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The Lego Page
Locator: 48386B.
Lead story on CNBC: at 6:00 a.m. -- intergenerational wealth transfer. Also, here.
Musk's intergenerational wealth transfer: unfortunately for his kids, they will each get a smaller share as he keeps having more children.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $70.43.
Friday, December 13, 2024: 22 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 654 for the year
RBN Energy: could China's slowing diesel demand boost use of US LNG as a transportation fuel?
China’s appetite for crude oil has been lower than expected this year, largely due to a slowing economy and the increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). And the U.S.’s #1 economic and geopolitical rival is in the midst of another transition that could further weaken crude oil demand: Heavy-duty trucking in China is increasingly being powered by LNG instead of diesel. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the trend toward LNG-fueled trucking in China and what it could mean for LNG exporters in the U.S.
Locator: 44508ARCHIVES.
Updates
December 8, 2024: within hours after posting the orinal note, Carl posted this note on Bluesky:
Social media comments (aka nattering nabobs of negativity) suggest some / many folks don't realize this is already occurring and will continue to snowball. Less important: a single curve. More important: the sum of the three (four?) curves). A fifth curve will start by 2048.
Simple arithmetic: 46 + 15 + 39 = $100 trillion.
Note: most folks will fixate on the yellow line after 2040. But importantly, right now, the yellow line is around $750 billion, or rounding to $1 trillion. To put that in perspective, MMFs are holding about $7 trillion. MMFs become a "holding tank" while heirs decide what to do with their cash inheritance.
Original Post
Links:
Merrill Lynch:
IT’S BEEN CALLED THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER in history: $84 trillion in assets is set to change hands over the next 20 years, according to estimates by the consulting firm Cerulli Associates.
The recipients, primarily members of Generation X (those born between 1965 and 1980), millennials (1981-1996) and Gen Z (1997-2012), are expected to inherit $72 trillion of that amount, mainly from baby boomers, with the rest going to charity.
What could this historic transfer of wealth mean for the markets? That depends a lot on important decisions these heirs make as they invest all or part of their good fortune. Will they choose the same mix of stocks, bonds, cash and real estate that their boomer parents gravitated toward? Or strike out in different directions, exploring radically new investment opportunities in search of greater growth? Already, some clues are emerging: 75% of millennial and Gen Z investors surveyed for Bank of America Private Bank’s “2022 Study of Wealthy Americans” believe “it’s not possible to achieve above-average returns solely on traditional stocks and bonds.”
Hmmmm? Crypto?
Rising stock markets and home prices, as well as inflation, have fattened the estates that members of the baby boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, are expected to leave their heirs. The latest inheritance projection by Cerulli is 45% higher than the 25-year forecast the firm made only three years ago. US gifts and inheritances are expected to total $2.5 trillion next year alone.
Three years ago? Biden was still in his first year of his presidency.
Locator: 48603WEALTH.
Tag: inter-generational wealth transfer
As a reminder from an earlier post:
April 16, 2022: how Gallup "defines" the generations, or, link here (wiki, slightly different):
Now this, link here.
For once, the unluckiest generation seems to have benefited from exceptionally lucky timing.
From 2019 to 2022, home prices catapulted 41 percent, making it the best three-year period on record.
And millennials were perfectly positioned to maximize their benefit. Many had only recently entered the housing market; suddenly, the biggest financial bet of their lives had paid off with unprecedented speed. They’d leveraged their 5 or 15 percent down payment into a claim on record appreciation of their home’s entire value.
A lot of folks are going to say this is "fake" wealth.
But there's more that no one ever seems to mention: RMDs.
Generation X and the millennials are going to inherit "real" wealth via RMDs. From an earlier post:
October 7, 2024:
Inter-generational wealth transfer. Liz Ann Sonders. A recurrent theme on the blog. Link here. Demographics. Wealth transfer.
Locator: 48598HTR.
HTR: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to "Halftime Report" on CNBC.
Definitions (1):
It sounds like a lot of folks are "mis-using" the terms "soft landing" and "no landing."
It appears some folks use this:
Definitions (2):
I prefer Definitions (1).
Still no talk about huge drivers:
25-year-old in 1985 are now ... wait for it ... 64 years old. So much money.
Car prices collapsing. Link here. Folks focused on $100,000 Teslas and $100,000 pickup trucks and feel they are out of the car market for a new car. In fact, it's easy to find any number of makes/models in the $31,000 to $37,000 range. Three-year loans, free money, at 1.9%. Five-year loans not much worse. In fact, looking at monthly payments where interest rates play such a big role, it's hard justifying a used car at 9% interest vs a new car at 2%. Some hyperbole, but not much
"Generational opportunity" -- phrase used by Jensen Huang. In other words, folks in their 20's, 30's, and 40's may never see an investing opportunity like we see now. Again, Jensen's words, not mine.
LDCs: hard to fight "this stock." "This stock" being Nvidia.
Apple: "the Judge" has it exactly right. A lot of folks have been burned fighting the Apple story. Most notable: Carter Worth and Dan Nathan on "Fast Money," CNBC.
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Energy Transformation
Electrification continues.
Driven by the fourth industrial revolution.
$4 trillion between now and 2050.
Energy: the US has checked the "all-of-the-above" box -- wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear.
Utilities up almost 40% year to date (need to fact-check).
Power: GE Vernova, Vistra, Quanta Services, Eaton Corp PLC.
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The Fourth Industrial Revolution
AI in all its various forms.
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Locator: 48578PERSINV.
So much for that "magnificent 7" being "the" market. I don't see it. Technology (XLK) vs Industrials (XLI) over the past full year:
Exhibit A: CAT.
Market cap:
At the close: records, records, records --
There are several strong tailwinds for investors:
Screenshots for stories above:
Belk, it's not even Halloween yet:
The retail pie not a zero-sum game:
Agriculture fertilizing, the four R's:
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APPLE
APPLE: one step closer to subscription-model annual update! Whoo-hoo! Subscription-model? You say? Yes, folks will be able to subscribe at x-dollars per month to get annual upgrade to new phone with trade-in of the previous year's model. I figure less than $50 / month will buy you a new high-end phone each year.
Locator: 48520WEALTH.
Inter-generational wealth transfer. Liz Ann Sonders. A recurrent theme on the blog. Link here. Demographics. Wealth transfer.
For the grandchildren: link here.
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Locator: 48519CRAMER.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
The big question: how did media get it so wrong about the dockworker strike? Expected to last weeks, barely got started before it was over.
NCAA football rankings out. Vanderbilt does not make top 25. Alabama drops to #7. Texas goes to #1.
Dallas wins last night. Close, but a win is a win. On the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
FEMA: under fire. Director's priority: the "feelings" of her workers. FEMA workers apparently feel threatened after government announces $750 / person aid package -- for those qualifying.
Inter-generational wealth transfer. Liz Ann Sonders. A recurrent theme on the blog. Link here. Demographics. Wealth transfer.
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Locator: 48557CRAMER.
Moment of silence: 9/11.
Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.
Debate last night: it was noted that the country really hasn't had an "active" president for the past year or so, and we've gotten along just fine. In broad brush:
Housing: intergenerational wealth transfer.
BRK: keeps selling BofA.
Pre-market: after the inflation data -- which came in as expected; no surprises. But the Dow plummets on the data.The data does not support a 50-basis point cut; the market sees a 25-basis point cut. It's a good report but perhaps not great for the market. I can't see the Fed getting to a full cut of 200 basis points by the end of the year.
Cramer's lead story: the banks.
Investing: for folks paying attention --
Spectrum: that will be the next discussion with regard to tech. DOD will be the big loser.
WTI: up nicely today; up 2.3%. Trading at $67.27.
Gamestop: I would be surprised if this is not a big story today. At least for some.
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