North Dakota Oil And Gas Permits -- 2015 -- December 28, 2015

It's hard to believe but the last (and maybe the only) time I posted "permit stats" in 2015 was at the end of January, 2015.

At that time, based on barely a month of data:

Projections for number of permits at the end of the calendar year based on permits of that same calendar year as of January 29th:

• 2015: 3,033
• 2014: 3,184
• 2013: 2,744
• 2012: 2,102

The actual number of permits issued for the full calendar year:

• 2015: ~ 2,050
• 2014: 3,012
• 2013: 2,671
• 2012: 2,522

As of last week, the NDIC issued 2,051 oil and gas permits for 2015. This is from my data base; it may vary a bit from the official NDIC figures.

At that rate, with only a few days left to go, the final tally would be 2,068 new oil and gas permits in 2015, well off the mark from previous years.

The projection for calendar years and 2013 and 2014 came in pretty close.

Disclaimer and a reminder: this is from my data base. I often make horrendous errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

There must have been a mini-surge in permits in late 2012 to beat the projection by a fairly good margin.

But this year was a real bust. Based on January, 2015, data, the projections were for over 3,000 permits. In fact, we barely got to 2,000 and many of those were eventually cancelled. And despite that North Dakota's production remained very, very robust.

And back in 2013 and 2014 we were watching upwards of 200 active rigs drilling in the state. At the end of this year, less than 65.

Random Post On State Of The Bakken Relative To Recent Mainstream Media Stories -- November 6, 2015

A string of links that are of interest as we end the week. Let's start with this one:

Apache -- From Reuters/Rigzone, November 5, 2015:

Apache Corp reported a much smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and joined a growing list of US oil producers in raising full-year production forecast even as many of them cut spending. 

Increased efficiencies, a drop in service costs and low break-even levels in core US shale fields are all helping US oil companies increase production on reduced budgets. 

US producers ranging from Oasis Petroleum to Devon Energy have forecast higher production in their latest quarterly reports. 

Then, this one from Forbes that says less than 1% of the Bakken is viable at these prices: Only 1% of the Bakken play breaks even at current oil prices.

Then this upbeat report from SM Energy drilling Divide County in North Dakota: This is a most interesting and unexpected story. The Dickinson Press is reporting that SM Energy has opened a new Williston office complex; located north of Williston.

Indonesia: And then this Reuters/Rigzone story on Indonesia:

Indonesia's state-owned energy firm Pertamina plans to process more domestic crude oil in a bid to limit the impact on the country of declining production, a plight that is also affecting oil-rich neighbours Malaysia and Brunei.

All three countries, which rely heavily on energy revenues, are running out of oil. Reuters research based on government, industry and consultancy data shows they could run dry within the next 25 years.

Number of new permits issued by the state (North Dakota) so far this year. On November 5 for each of the following years, the number of oil and gas permits issued (does not include permits for salt water disposal wells). The numbers may be off, but not by much:

• 2015: 1856
• 2014: 2555
• 2013: 2254
• 2012: 2197

Where We Stand On Permits For Oil And Gas Wells In North Dakota -- September 20, 2015

Where we stand on permits in North Dakota. On September 18th, for each of the following years, the number of oil and gas permits issued (does not include permits for salt water disposal wells). The numbers may be off, but not by much:

• 2015: 1647
• 2014: 2100
• 2013: 1819
• 2012: 1647 (coincidental, huh?)

Random Update Regarding Projected Number Of Oil & Gas Permits To Be Issued In 2015 -- January 29, 2015

This is way too early to be doing this, January is not even over yet, but a) I was curious; b) I was bored; and, c) January 31 falls on the weekend skewing the numbers.

The numbers may be slightly off, but probably not by much.

On January 29, in each of the designated years, this is the number of oil and gas permits that had been issued by January 29th, the raw, actual number of issued permits as of January 29th:

• 2015 (this year): 241
• 2014 (last year): 253
• 2013 (the year before last year): 218
• 2012 (the year before that): 167

Based on that data, if the number of permits were issued at the same rate, the number of permits projected to be issued each calendar year as of January 29th:

• 2015: 3,033
• 2014: 3,184
• 2013: 2,744
• 2012: 2,102

The actual number of permits issued for the full calendar year:

• 2015: --
• 2014 (last year): 3,013
• 2013 (the year before last year): 2,671
• 2012 (the year before that): 2,521

Just some idle numbers on a Thursday evening.

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