Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Random Update Of An Older Well Returned To Production After Neighboring Wells Fracked -- October 29, 2019

This page won't be updated.

These two wells came off confidential well today:
  • 35282, 1,515, Enerplus, Blackberry 149-93-21B-22H, this well is tracked here; Mandaree, t4/19; cum 101K 8/19;(#22748 with jump in production)
  • 35281, 1,401, Enerplus, Boxwood 149-93-21B-22H-TF, this well is tracked here; Mandaree, t4/19; cum 78K 8/19;
An older well in the immediate area:
  • 22748, 729, Enerplus, Chokecherry 149-93-21A-22H, Mandaree, t11/12; cum 247K 8/19;
Note: this well was originally drilled back in 2012. Note recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Updated Graphic Of CLR's Long Creek Unit -- October 29, 2019

This post won't be updated.

For those curious about how CLR's Long Creek Unit is coming along, an updated graphic of a small area of the project has been posted at that site.

This is the graphic:

Twenty-five wells/sites in the small area above, about:
  • 1.1 mile west to east
  • 0.55 mile north to south

Random Note On Petro-Hunt USA Wells In Section 1-153-95 -- October 29, 2019

It looks like Petro-Hunt is getting ready to frack wells in Charlson oil field, sited in section 1-153-95, based on status of "new" wells (SI/NC) and neighboring, older wells now coming off line. 

Thirty-Two Permits Renewed -- October 29, 2019

PCG: too big to fail? PCG surges 32.4% today; up $1.23 on on $4.00 stock; up another 5% after hours. 

MDU: 3Q19 earnings here.
  • earnings: $137.6 million or 69 cents/share
  • 3Q18: $107.3 million or 55 cents/share
  • shares up a bit during normal duty hours, and after hours

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5966533469

Six new permits, #37136 - #37141, inclusive --
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • Hess has permits for a 6-well BW-Rolfson pad in section 21-151-98, Siverston oil field
Thirty-two permits renewed:
  • Crescent Point Energy (17): seventeen CPEUSC Tami (5); Ruby (6); Holmes (6) permits, all in Williams County
  • Liberty Resources (6): six Albertson E permits in Mountrail County
  • EOG (6): six Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County
  • Oasis: one Fraser Federal permit in Williams County
  • Newfield: one Jorgenson Federal permit in Dunn County
  • Sinclair: one Bighorn permits
Two permits canceled:
  • XTO: one FBIR Baker permit in Dunn County
  • CLR: one Imsland permit in Divide County
Four producing wells (DUCs) completed:
  • 33036, 1,236, QEP, Vegas 1-36-6-31LL, Spotted Horn, t10/19; cum --;
  • 34123,  1,614, QEP, Vegas 2-1-36BH, Spotted Horn, t10/10; cum --;
  • 34122, 2,238, QEP, Vegas 1-1-36TH, Spotted Horn, t10/19; cum --;
  • 34215,  1,480, QEP, Vegas 4-1-36BH, Spotted Horn, t9/19; cum --;

Daily Note

115th  US Congress
Fourth 100 Days (first 50 days)
Days 301 - 350 

December 18, 2019, T+50: US House of Representatives votes on articles of impeachment. At least two Democrats will not vote for impeachment.

December 17, 2019, T+49,  seven new national polls since the Fox News poll, December 15 --
  • Emerson, 12/15 - 12/17: Pocahontas - 12%;
  • Economist, 12/14 - 12/17: Buttigieg - 7%;
  • Quinnipiac, 12/11 - 12/15: Biden - 30%;
  • USA Today, 12/10 - 12/14: Buttigeig -- 8%;
  • M. Consult, 12/9 - 12/15: Biden - 31%
  • NPR/PBS, 12/9 - 12/11: Biden - 24%
    • Placeholder leads in all polls, in Quinnipiac, 30%;
    • Sanders: as low as 14% in USA Today; as high as 25% in Emerson;
    • Pocahontas: does rise to 17% in some polls, but many polls have her at 12% - 13%;
    • Buttigieg: 13% in the NPR/PBS poll is an outlier; every other poll at 7% - 9%;
    • the others are irrelevant, but for the record: Bloomberg (3% - 7%); Klobuchar, a legend in her own mind, (3%); Steyer, 2%;
December 16, 209, T+48:

December 15, 2019, T+47: FoxNews national poll, 12/2 - 12/11, just released:
  • Placeholder for Hillary: 30%; quite impressive, considering
  • Sanders: 20%; similar to most other national polls;
  • Pocahontas: continues to lose traction; now down to 13%; she will try to stay in until the end, but th money will quit coming in
  • Buttigieg: at 7%; the lowest he has polled in the last five national polls;
  • Bloomberg: at 5% he meets the threshold for the debates, but rules prevent him from being on the stage due to self-funding; no donors;
  • the rest irrelevant, but for the record, Steyer hanging in there at 1%; what was he thinking? Amy Klobuchar surging! Up to 5% -- pretty much doubling all her previous polling;
December 14, 2019, T+46 (posted December 12, 2019): polls now coming fast and furious. A new New Hampshire poll, WBUR/MassINC, 11/21 - 12/8:
  • Buttigieg: 18%
  • Placeholder for Hillary: 17%
  • Sanders: 15%
  • Pocahontas, her backyard: fourth, at 12%
  • the rest irrelevant, but for the record, Steyer, 3%; Bloomberg, 2%; ho, ho, ho; 
  • total: 82%, which means almost 20% undecided/won't comment/confused
December 13, 2019, T+45 (posted December 12, 2019): finally, a new Iowa poll:
  • Biden: 23%; but overall average of all polls, 18%; placeholder for Hillary;
  • Sanders: 22%;
  • Buttigieg: 18%; the worst since peaking some months ago;
  • Pocahontas: at 12% is imploding; pretty much done; one should expect more screeching from this American Indian; but it's all over;
  • Klobuchar: in her backyard, surging (in her mind) -- at 10% -- looking good
  • the rest, irrelevant, but for the record: Steyer, 3%; Bloomberg, 2% (are you kidding?)
December 12, 2019, T+44 (posted December 11, 2019): latest national poll just released from one of the most liberal and most unreliable pollsters, The Economist:
  • Biden: 26%, in line with Quinnpiac but still not good news for a front runner; a front runner can't poll greater than 30%?; Biden remains a placeholder for Hillary;
  • Warren: 21%; corroborates my view that The Economist is unreliable and very liberal; Pocahontas is polling nowhere near 21% in any other poll;
  • Sanders, 16%; I guess The Economist feels Pocahontas is less crazy than Bernie
  • Buttigeig, 11%: up from an average of 9% in other polls; a reminder, he's a mayor of city of 102,000; received 15,000 - 20,000 votes to become mayor;
  • the rest: irrelevant, but for the record, Steyer, 1%; and, Bloomberg, 4% -- ho, ho, ho.
December 11, 2019, T+43 (posted December 10, 2019): latest national poll just released and this one is a biggie -- Quinnipiac, 11/27 - 12/9, release detail --
  • Biden: 29% -- not breaking out; but not imploding either; he's a placeholder for Hillary;
  • Sanders: 17% -- holding his base, but that's it
  • Pocahontas: 15% -- holding her base, but that's it; needs to break out; she won't be anyone's pick for VP
  • Buttigieg: 9%; flat; not breaking out
  • Bloomberg: 5%; big name; big funding; low polling
  • the rest: irrelevant, but for the record, Steyer, 1%; Klobuchar (surging in her mind), 3% 
December 10, 2019, T+42: Tulsi Gabbard "opts" out of December debate even though she qualified. Writing on the wall. Two new polls, Politico and Monmouth.
  • Biden: 30% (Politico); 26% (Monmouth)
  • Sanders: maintains second place in both polls, 21% and 22%, respectively;
  • Pocahontas: maintains third place in both polls, 16% and 17%, respectively; no real change from previous (other) polls, but no further implosion as reported earlier;
  • Buttigieg and Bloomberg: statistical tie for 4th place; 8-9% for Buttigieg; 5 - 6% for Bloomberg;
  • the others are irrelevant; of note, Gabbard polls at zero (0) percent in the Monmouth; Steyer at 1% in same poll; Klobuchar is surging (in her mind), at 4% in the Monmouth, but 2 - 3% in the other four polls;
  • is Biden a placeholder for Hillary?
December 9, 2019, T+41: wow, talk about a "kangaroo court." The US House -- the entire body -- voted to allow GOP witnesses to appear before the Judiciary Committee. Today, the Judiciary Committee chairperson, Jerry Nadler, refused to let any of the eight GOP witnesses appear before the committee. Harvard-Harris poll released today: Hillary Clinton at top of list among Democrat voters. At 21% she is statistically tied with Biden, 20%. Others, Sanders, 12%; Pocahontas, 9%; and Bloomberg, 7%. Pocahontas has truly imploded; she will stick it out through Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire, but then after that, it's all over but the screech and "here's the thing." I was surprised to see Sanders drop below 15%; his support is fairly committed and unlikely to change. Or are they? Have some of Sanders' supporters moved to Hillary?

December 8, 2019, T+40: Articles of Impeachment being drawn up. When this goes to the US Senate, Chief Justice Roberts will keep the trial limited to the issue and will not let the US Senate trial "get out of control." The US House democrats will be trying to thread the needle: articles of impeachment strong enough to "make the case," but not so wide as to allow the Senate GOP to go "wild."

December 7, 2019, T+39: quiet. 

December 6, 2019, T+38 (posted December 5, just before Hillary's playbook: stay out of limelight except on an ad hoc basis. She will not formally announce, and she won't participate in the primary process. She's counting on a brokered convention where the super-delegates will nominate here. But to make sure the superdelegates know she is still going to run and will accept the nomination, she "pops up" whenever there is a major political development. So far it's been predictable and just like clock work: a press release; a university speech; an interview. The most recent example: just days after Bloomberg announced he was running, she shows up on the Howard Stern show. Obviously it would take a day or two to get the interview scheduled, and de-conflict his / her schedule.  So, literally, as soon as Bloomberg announced, Hillary had a response ready to go --- make an appointment to be interviewed on the Howard Stern show.
Howard Stern, the original "shock jock" stayed away from Epstein, Bill Clinton's affairs, Vince Foster, etc. -- obviously he agreed to softball questions in exchange for the interview.

But, the timing was priceless.
December 5, 2019, T+37: Nancy Pelosi announces that the US House will vote to impeach President Trump. The US Senate has the entire month of January cleared for the trial.  Ater Kamala Harris dropped out (December 3, 2019) Rush Limbaugh suggested the next one to drop out would be Pocahontas. We're only talking about the top five (the fifth being Bloomberg). Rush is correct, but she will stick it out through Iowa and New Hampshire. Her low income donors are not likely to be in the mood to send yet another check when her polling numbers are dropping, and it turns out she lied about her son going to private school, for $39,000 / year. That won't play well with low income donors (Ms Warren says she won't accept donations from "big" donors.) Also this:
Hillary's playbook: stay out of limelight except on an ad hoc basis. She will not formally announce, and she won't participate in the primary process. She's counting on a brokered convention where the superdelegates will nominate here. But to make sure the superdelegates know she is still going to run and will accept the nomination, she "pops up" whenever there is a major political development. So far it's been predictable and just like clock work: a press release; a university speech; an interview. The most recent example: just days after Bloomberg announced he was running, she shows up on the Howard Stern show. Obviously it would take a day or two to get the interview scheduled, and de-conflict his / her schedule.  So, literally, as soon as Bloomberg announced, Hillary had a response ready to go --- make an appointment to be interviewed on the Howard Stern show.
Howard Stern, the original "shock jock" stayed away from Epstein, Bill Clinton's affairs, Vince Foster, etc. -- obviously he agreed to softball questions in exchange for the interview.

But, the timing was priceless.
December 4, 2019, T+37: Pocahontas is caught in another lie. After denying it throughout her campaign, proof is found that her son went to private school for most of his formative years (all but one year between middle school and high school graduation). High school tuition: $39,000/year. It gets tedious. Another poll is released today: The Economist. The Economist is the most liberal of the pollsters, and is truly an outlier. In fact, the results say more about the pollsters than those polled:
  • Biden: 27%; the former VP is not liberal enough for those polled by The Economist;
  • Sanders: 13%; this is very, very low for The Economist; those polled would find Sanders more than liberal enough, but for various reasons, they would rather go with Warren
  • Pocahontas: at 18% -- this is the poll in which she clearly does the best, and this clearly shows The Economist is an outlier among pollsters --
  • Buttigieg: at 12% is doing very, very well for The Economist, but does not poll as high in The Economist as he does in the most reliable poll, the Quinnipiac, where he polls at 16%
  • Bloomberg: only 3% (he was 6% in The Hill's poll taken at almost the same time); not liberal enough but also too "new" for this poll; things will change;
  • Steyer at 0%
December 3, 2019, T+36: Kamala Harris drops out of the race; White House revokes Bloomberg News press credentials after Bloomberg bans investigative reporting on DEMS but will bless continued investigative reporting on Trump. Wow, wow, wow, another national poll released December 2, 2019, The Hill, 11/30 - 12/1:
  • Biden: wow, 31%; didn't expect that; folks getting tired of the others?
  • Sanders: pretty much unchanged, at 15%
  • Pocohontas: imploding, had been trending toward 20%; now 10% in latest nationwide poll
  • Buttigieg; nationally, even Mr Mom is faltering; now at 9%
  • the others don't matter, but for the record: Bloomberg jumps to 6% and 5th place; Kamala Harris next at 2%
  • Hillary: re-calculating ... re-calculating ... re-calculating ...
December 2, 2019, T+35: I thought "Global Warming" would be the issue for the 2020 campaign but my hunch is that internal polling shows that Americans don't care, and, if anything, don't accept global warming as an issue at all. So what will the issue be? My hunch: Third Supreme Court justice nomination for Trump. And what dot can Trump opponents connect to the Supreme Court nomination? Abortion. Interestingly, there are two huge articles on how anti-abortion proponents are winning the battle: a) first, in The New York Times, a long, long article on this very subject, and even though NYT articles are "always" behind a pay wall, this article is NOT behind a paywall; and, b) a long, long essay in the December 2, 2019, The New Yorker, with the same thesis -- anti-abortion proponents are winning ever since Trump was elected. Also, within the last couple of weeks The New Yorker also had a fluff piece on how Kagan has kept the court from swinging right.

December 1, 2019, T+34: quiet.

November 30, 2019, T+33: national polling. The big story is how far Pocahontas has fallen. Earlier, she slammed Sanders, 26% to 17%, in the Economist poll. In the most recent Economist poll, they are tied, she 17%; he 15%. His support, at 15%, is solid. Her support, all the way down to 3% is very, very weak. 

November 29, 2019, T+32: circular firing squad; gap among the top four in a national poll, The Economist, 11/24 - 11/26, continues to narrow. Pocahontas implodes:
  • Biden: 23% (in the previous Economist poll: 30%)
  • Sanders: 15%
  • Pocahontas: 17% (in the previous Economist poll: she slammed Sanders; 26% to 17%).
  • Buttigieg: 12% (in the previous Economist poll: 8%)
  • the rest don't matter, but for the record: Steyer, 1%; Bloomberg, "call me Mike," 3%;
November 28, 2019, T+31: New Hampshire -- Buttigieg's to lose

November 27, 2019, T+30: awesome. Another national poll and this time it's one of the more trusted pollsters, Quinnipiac:
  • Biden: healthy lead but well below 35% where he might have been in the beginning; 24%, and probably about as accurate as any poll I've seen; 24% for the guy out front is fairly pathetic
    • Sanders/Pocahontas: tied at 13 - 14%. DNC rules require 15% to get any delegates at all.
    • Buttigieg: finally a national poll that does show him surging; at 16%, above the 15% threshold and, although not statistically significant, ahead of both Sanders/Pocahontas
  • after that no one matters; for the record:
    • Bloomberg: 3%
    • Amy: surging; 3%
    • Steyer: 0% -- apparently folks don't "buy" his commercials; the only one who polls at zero is Steyer; LOL;
November 26, 2019, T+29: Michigan Democrat, huge Kamala Harris supporter, huge anti-Trumper, strong on impeachment, changes tune. Now, says "no" to impeachment efforts. Time to move on. Sees polls showing independents have had enough of this. Again, these polls mean nothing at this point, but they are fun to watch. This is the first poll after Bloomberg officially announces. This is a nationwide Politico poll:
  • nationwide:
    • Bloomberg: 2%; twice that of Julian Castro; really? Really.
    • Biden: still smashes it; leading at 30%; pretty much unchanged
    • Pocahontas: at 15%; well down from other recent polls showing 20% and 22%
    • Sanders: at 21% easily beats Pocahontas, but again, this is a nationwide Politico poll
    • Of course, no one else matters but for the record, Buttigieg unchanged at 9% despite all the media reports that he is surging (yes, in Iowa and New Hampshire, but that's where it ends)
    • Combined, (they each have 2%): Gabbie, Mike, Tom, Amy, and Cory -- a combined 10%
    • Amy was said to have surged after the last debate; LOL.  
  • No new Iowa poll, but we do have a new New Hampshire poll -- The Globe, 11/21 - 11/24, which does not include Mike:
    • Pocahontas, listed first, but only 14%
    • Buttigieg, listed second, but only 13%
    • Biden, listed third, but only 12%
    • finally, Crazy Bernie in his backyard: 16%
    • Amy, who was said to be surging after the last debate, at 1%
Remember, the rules: one must receive at least 15% of the votes to score any delegates. In the most recent New Hampshire poll (the Globe), only Bernie reaches that threshold and he is polling at 16%.

November 25, 2019, T+28: from https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/democrats-trump-impeachment-liz-peek: impeachment hearings; no clear front runner; no funds: Fundraising has exploded for the GOP, with the RNC reporting it hauled in $25.3 million during October, 2019, and had $61.4 million in the hopper at month's end. In contrast, the DNC brought in a mere $9 million. At the end of last month, October, 2019, the DNC was $7 million in debt and had only $8.7 million in the kitty. From  pretty smart strategist:
And I think people are now looking at it, and particularly independents, and saying, what are we doing on USMCA? What are we doing on opioids, prescription drugs, infrastructure, the business of the nation?

Vanity Fair went into a Politico Morning Consult poll. And the numbers are stunning. I think, by 3-1, independents don't know why we're doing this.
Impeachment ranked last among their interests, even lower than the wall, which is not high for independents.
November 24, 2019, T+27: Bloomberg announces he is running for president. My initial thought: the current wanna-be most hurt by this news: Biden. On second thought, it's Hillary. She has to re-calculate.

November 23, 2019, T+26: quiet.

November 22, 2019, T+25: another day, another poll. Today, Emerson, 11/17 - 11/20:
  • Biden/Sanders: tied at 27% -- this tells you how divided the party is right now
  • Pocahontas: spinning her wagon wheels; in a run; 20%
  • Buttigieg: all that talk about surging. LOL. Hasn't cracked 10% nationally. Emerson: 7%. 
  • Everyone after those four drops off a cliff.
  • Iowa: Biden is the big loser. At 12% (Iowa State) below the 15% threshold for any delegates
  • New Hampshire: wow, wow, wow -- Buttigieg (25%) beating the pants off Pocahontas (15%, tied with Biden) --St Anselm poll
November 21, 2019, T+24: California Supreme Court -- state can't force President Trump to release tax filings. The other day I mentioned that the fastest way to get the monkey off his back is for Prince Andrew to implicate former President Clinton in the Epstein scandal. Now it appears he is getting very, very close to meeting with the FBI. If he does, it would almost be impossible for an unbiased, serious investigator to not ask for "all" names. On another note, it is very, very clear that Prince Andrew's go-between for access to young women was Epstein. Prince Andrew visited Epstein even after convicted pedophile Epstein was released from prison according to the Daily Mail

November 20, 2019, T+23: bad day at the US House with regard to impeachment. But we move on. Three new polls out: Politico, 11/11/ - 11/7; The Hill, 11/16 - 11/17; and, the Economist, 11/17 - 11/19. Taken together:
  • Biden: all three show him as the national front-runner with 30 - 32%
  • Pocahontas slams Sanders in the Economist but the latter is an outlier; way too liberal; Economist polling is worthless; in the other two polls, pretty much a dead-heat between Pocahontas and Sanders (Sanders leads 18 - 15 in one; and Sanders leads 20 - 17 in the other)
  • Buttigieg: the national media continue to suggest he is the new star but nationally he polls at 8, 7, and 8 percent; in Iowa, Buttigieg is clearly ahead but right now the top four would split the delegates pretty much evenly; pretty much the same thing as Iowa, but Pocahontas and Buttigieg will slug it out there; Buttigieg pretty much falls off the radar scope everywhere else (Nevada; South Carolina; California)
  • bottom line: top three split the delegates three ways
  • Atlanta, GA, debate tonight;
November 19, 2019, T+22: quiet.

November 18, 2019, T+21: quiet.

November 17, 2019, T+20: Nancy Pelosi "invites" Trump to testify. Grasping for straws or brilliant politician? We'll know in less than a week whether the "invitation" has legs. My hunch: something will come along that will take the story off the front page. It seems something always does.

November 16, 2019, T+19, posted November 14, 2019: a reader asked what the next issue the Dems will use to attack Trump. My reply:
This is a no-brainer: formal withdrawal from global warming treaty putting the entire world at risk. Not taking the 12-year meme seriously will be new grounds for impeachment. Hillary will get the UN to lead the effort.
The U.S. started the process with a hand-delivered letter, becoming the only country to withdraw. The United Nations will soon set out procedural details for what happens next, UN deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said.
Agreement rules prevented any country from pulling out in the first three years after the Nov. 4, 2016, ratification. The U.S. withdrawal doesn’t become complete until the day after the 2020 election.

I would assume there are members of the US House working closely with the UN to develop the procedures.
November 15, 2019, T+18, posted November 13, 2019: I posted this about three months ago but it was very cryptic the way I posted it so as not to offend anyone. But with the news today, I will re-state it so it can't be missed: RBG will be gone by the end of the year (2019). On another note: Mitch McConnell needs to send his list of folks he will subpoena to Nancy Pelosi if the US House votes for impeachment, starting with the Bidens; Hillary; Comey; the entire intel community leadership under Obama - and with a formal trial, the subpoenas would be very, very legitimate. McConnell should let Pelosi know he is very, very serious and give her a week to shut the Schiff charade down or prepare for a very, very interesting trial in the US Senate.

November 14, 2019, T+17, link here, https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/11/12/trump-surges-women-suburbs-tops-all-democrat-candidates-large-donations/:
Women who live in America’s suburbs are supporting President Donald Trump’s re-election bid, says a new report at OpenSecrets.org, that shows Trump is benefiting from a surge in large-dollar donations from women in suburbs – more than any Democrat candidate.
While mainstream media are reporting some polls that suggest Trump is losing the support of women, the report by Open Secrets, part of the Center for Responsive Politics, shows the president has over 10,500 large-dollar contributions from women in suburbs, and has received $8,293,135 from them – the largest amount than any of the Democrat 2020 candidates.
November 13, 2019, T+16: the list of 56 and more. Pocahontas now wants to take away your doctor and your private health insurance. How is that playing out. The Economist poll, 11/10 - 11/12, just released:
  • Pocahontas: 26%, which seems to be trending up
  • Biden: 23%; maybe steady; perhaps down a bit
  • Sanders: unchanged at the 17% level
  • Buttigieg: no traction; polls at 9% (again this is national)
  • taking away your health insurance, apparently, continues to play well
November 12, 2019, T+15: going through this in a rational way, it sounds like a case could easily be made that the "whistleblower" and the "military colonel" are guilty of treason, high crimes, and misdemeanors, with conspiracy to overthrow a duly and legally elected president. This would explain why neither of them want to testify, especially if under oath. It seems it may be time for the judiciary committee of the US Senate to get involved. Something tells me "pajama boy" and the "military colonel" would spill the beans, as they say. And if I can think of this, I'm sure a lot of much smarter folks than I have already thought of this.

November 11, 2019, T+14: I enjoy listening to Rush Limbaugh on all of this. I knew the "whistleblower" had decided not to testify. Now I understand the military man Colonel Vindman won't testify either (I don't know if that's accurate). If neither do testify one wonders if they are worried about being accused of treason. It's not often one reads about a "coup" in an e-mail regarding the president of the US. It's one thing for a "pajama-man" civilian to be involved in a "coup" but it's quite another thing for a military colonel nearing the end of his career, looking forward to a nice retirement. 

November 10, 2019, T+13: quiet.

November 9, 2019, T+12: Mayor Bloomberg making rumbling noises about throwing his hat into the ring. Has filed for Alabama. Will skip Iowa and New Hampshire.

November 8, 2019, T+11: comparing Nixon, Clinton, and Trump impeachment process from the president's perspective. Huge difference. Nixon withdrew; knew he had lost. Clinton fought but knew he had committed the crime; survived due to public support. Trump fights, and knows he committed no crime. Will enjoy watching politicos in US House vote.

November 7, 2019, T+10: wow. The tweet surfaces -- one after Trump was elected -- "The coup has begun. Impeachment will follow. CNN will play a major role." Quinnipiac poll through 11/15 for IOWA just released:
  • statistical tie among the top 3, perhaps the top 4:
  • Pocahontas: 20
  • Buttigieg: 19
  • Sanders: 17
  • Biden: 15
  • other candidates irrelevant, but for the record -- Klobuchar, 5%; Harris, 4%; Steyer, 3%; 
  • reminder: to be "awarded" delegates, one must receive at least 15% of the votes;
November 6, 2019, T+9: anyone paying attention can see that Hillary will seek the Democrat nomination for president; it is simply a matter of when she will announce / enter the race. This will be fascinating to watch. I suggest that it will occur at the DNC convention. Two new national polls have just been released, an Economist poll and a Monmouth poll. Both show Biden and Pocahontas in a statistical tie; the Monmouth poll suggests a three-way tie: Biden-Pocahontas-Sanders. For all that talk of Buttigieg surging, in no poll does he get to 10%. His best is 9% in the Monmouth poll. None of the other candidates are even worth mentioning. The Monmouth totals to 89% which means 11% are undecided.  The top three total 66% which means that at most 34% split their votes among the top three. An additional 15% to either Biden or Pocahontas does not get them to 50% +1. There is no new Iowa/New Hampshire poll.

November 5, 2019, T+8: across the board, from the far left to the far right, Pocahontas has been panned for her "Medicare for all" won't cost middle class anything, but they will loss all their private insurance campaign promise -- waiting to see how this will affect her in the polls. The most recent poll, a Politico poll, 10/28- 11/3, has just been released:
  • Pocahontas: 20% -- a very poor showing, nationally
  • Sanders at 20%: ties Pocahontas
  • Biden: 32%
  • Buttigieg: with no mojo -- back to 7%
  • two polls through 11/2 in Nevada released: almost identical to the national poll
November 4, 2019, T+7: Interesting. Rush Limbaugh on talk radio today said the same thing I said a couple of days ago (see below): the national polls do not matter (don't take that out of context); but it is the states where delegates are won. 

November 3, 2019, T+6: quiet?

November 2, 2019, T+5: wow, four new national polls have come out, 10/27 -10/30 for three of them; 10/29 - 10/31, for the fourth. In addition, new state polls for Iowa, New Hampshire. I don't think the national polls mean a whole lot; it's all about state delegates. National polling provides fodder for donors, newspaper headlines. Having said that:
  • nationally: not much has really changed; in most polls, the gap between Pocahontas and Biden narrows but in the Fox News poll, 31 - 21 and in the Harris poll, 33 - 15, Biden remains clearly on top in both. Interesting. Sanders pretty much polling the same, nationally.
  • But at the state level, where delegates matter it gets much more interesting.
  • Iowa: although not statistically significant, Biden trails Buttigieg and Biden is now in third place; Pocahontas is in first place (22) vs Buttigieg (18). Sanders at 19 out-polls Biden; it's a four-way race; Biden is fading; Buttigieg is gaining
  • New Hampshire: Iowa might help Buttigieg, but right now Buttigieg is not at the 15% threshold that is needed to gain any delegates; the tea leaves suggest that will change;
  • South Carolina: this is where Buttigieg gets stopped; if he does well in Iowa, that will help in New Hampshire, but he will get stopped in South Carolina for at least a couple of reasons
  • With the recent "craziness" of Pocahontas ("Medicare for all" won't raise taxes on the middle class), Biden might make a comeback -- but in Iowa/New Hampshire, Buttigieg might be the benefactor, and one can almost predict that Buttigieg will take California; Buttigieg might get stopped in the south, but he is looking better and better across the northeast, midwest, and far west. 
November 1, 2019, T+4: VDH. Later: "Hell, yes, I'm out of the race." -- Beto.

October 31, 2019, T+3: Kamala out? Out of cash. Laying off staff. Consolidating operations. Castro was out of money some weeks ago. Crowd starting to shrink. Two new polls out today. Biden/Pocahontas consolidate. Sanders, surprisingly, drops. Kamala Harris -- pretty much done. Beto and Castro both poll zero. Nada. Nil. Zilch. Steyer at 1%. Pocahontas seems to be slipping. Buttigieg moving up -- still well below the "magic" 15% threshold but in a month or so, could be close.

October 30, 2019, T+2: we have nothing to fear but fear itself.

October 29, 2019, T+1: see Real Clear Politics link (also above) -- the most recent poll -- Politico does not support recent mainstream media headlines.
  • The mainstream media headlines I'm seeing:
    • Buttigieg is the new "next hope"
      • Pocahontas was surging; probably still is, but Buttigieg is the one to watch
    • Biden is imploding; having difficulty raising money
    • Kamala Harris could to well in California
  • from the most recent poll, Politico, 10/21 - 10/27, these are my takeaways:
    • amazingly, Biden not only maintains, but actually is trending up; of the most recent six polls, Biden did better in the most recent poll with one exception (CNN, 34% vs 32%)
    • Pocahontas at 20% has flat-lined; no change in all six polls; was 28% in Quinnipiac several polls ago
    • Bernie: as good as he has ever done (20% - which by the way, ties with Pocahontas); heart attack? what heart attack?
  • then all the rest 
    • Buttigieg? the one to watch; the one surging; the one who could win? 
      • in only one poll is Buttigieg "breaking out" -- Iowa in Iowa State poll but in big scheme of things, pretty much unchanged
    • Harris: completely unchanged, at 6%, nationally; in California? 8%. 
  • remember: to be awarded any delegates, one must receive at least 15% of the popular vote
  • the rest of the rest: 0.7% (Castro) to 2.5% (Yang)
  • I happened to catch a Steyer television ad -- it looks like he's gotten the message -- he has changed his message, unless I missed something -- he didn't say anything about impeachment

Daily note archives here.

Off The Net For Awhile -- Uber-Granddaughter Driving Begins

And breakfast for Sophia.

OPEC Imports Collapse; Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- October 29, 2019

From Rigzone:
With U.S. crude oil production up 150 percent to 12.4 million b/d since 2008, the great American shale boom has collapsed imports from OPEC.
In 2018, OPEC met less than 15 percent of total U.S. oil demand, down from over 30 percent in 2007.
Overall, U.S. imports from OPEC have sunk to their lowest levels since 1986.
In particular, U.S. imports from Nigeria, a longtime supplier that has major production problems and inconveniently sells the lighter type of crude that has been overflowing from America’s shale fields, has fallen 85 percent to 190,000 b/d.
Imports from Saudi Arabia are down over 70 percent, although it still accounts for a third of the 1.4 million b/d that OPEC ships to the U.S. per the latest EIA data.
The loss of OPEC oil in the U.S. market has really come from a triad of factors: surging U.S. crude production, Saudi Arabia’s production cuts, and strong U.S. sanctions on Venezuela.
In addition, the fall reflects a broader trend of OPEC understandably trying to shift sales to the fast-growing Asian markets. Since 2008, for instance, China and India have accounted for 60 percent of the 13.4 million b/d increase in global oil demand. And these two giants will lead the non-OECD Asian nations that the EIA projects will account for 75 percent of the 20 million b/d in new global demand through 2050, as far out as the EIA currently models.
Much more at the link.

The right kind of oil: Canada.
Indeed, with its heavier oil a match for the U.S. refining system, largest trading partner and firm ally Canada has filled in nicely for the fall of OPEC. In the shale-era since 2008, Canadian oil exports to the U.S. have almost doubled to 4.7 million b/d. Over the past four years, Canada alone has shipped more oil to the U.S. than all OPEC nations combined.
Canada now meets nearly 25 percent of total U.S. oil demand, more than double its share from a decade ago. Canadian oil has benefitted the U.S. by compensating for the falling heavy oil production in longtime suppliers Mexico and Venezuela. 
It has been neighbor Canada that has helped supply those parts of the U.S. that are too distant to take-in the huge amounts of shale oil coming from Texas and North Dakota.
The key exception here is California, where sea-borne shipments from Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Colombia have come to replace Canada and dominate the market.
California buys Saudi Arabia oil ($60) vs Canadian oil ($40):
  • WTI: $50/bbl
  • Saudi: $60/bbl
  • Canadian crude index: $40
  • Western Canadian Select: $40

Permian Pipeine Update -- October 29, 2019

This was posted earlier, but might have been lost; so much was posted that day.
  • Permian pipeline -- EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline -- launches another open season -- Rigzone -- dated October 28, 2019 -- I don't know if this is old news / previously reported / new news; things happening so fast; will come back to it later; 
  • Another pipeline -- Enterprise -- EPD -- third Midland-to-ECHO oil expansion by 3Q20; again, can't keep up; old news / previously reported / new news? I don't know; I will come back to this later; 
EPIC Crude Oil Pipeline:
  • third open season
  • first two open seasons were successful; both closed back in 2018
  • pipeline services the Permian and the Eagle Ford
  • runs parallel to the EPIC Y-Grade Pipeline from Orla, TX, to the Port of Corpus Christi, TX
  • in August, 2019, EPIC launched 24-inch-diameter Y-Grade Pipeline
  • carries up to 400,000 bopd of crude oil
  • new work: mainline construction of the 30-inch Crude Oil Pipeline in January, 2020
  • will be expandable to 900,000 bpd
  • also: EPIC Crude Export Dock in Corpus Christi will finish 4Q19: will be capable of loading Aframax oil tankers -- tankers can carry 750,000 bbls crude oil
  • EPIC also building a second crude export dock that will be able to load Suezmax tankers -- tankers can carry one million bbls crude oil
  • third expansion
  • will add 450,000 bopd
  • a fourth expansion, also, 450,00 bopd, will allow the company to convert the Seminole pipeline back to NGL service
  • to be complete by 3Q20
  • this is the third expansion of this pipeline
  • was called the Seminole pipeline (now called the Midland-to-ECHO 2 pipeline)
  • EPD can transport at optimum cost, 1.3 million b/d
  • if the market needs more capacity, EPD can ramp up that capacity to 1.8 million b/d with zero capital
  • EPD moved an average of 2.3 million b/d through its pipelines in 3Q19, up 21% from a year earlier

Notes From All Over, Part 2; JPMorgan Moving Some Assets To Dallas Area -- October 29, 2019

Nothing about the Bakken in this post.

JPMorgan prepares for next recession by shifting jobs from NYC to Texas; link here;
A new report via Bloomberg details how JPMorgan Chase & Co. is preparing for the next economic downturn by weighing the option to relocate its Manhattan headquarters to lower-cost financial hubs such as ones in Plano, Texas; Columbus, Ohio; and Wilmington, Delaware.
JPM spokesman Joe Evangelisti told Bloomberg the bank's new headquarters (likely to be in Texas), will house twice the number of employees than its Manhattan office.
Sources told Bloomberg that hundreds of credit-risk employees have already transferred to Texas. Other sources have said Manhattan will no longer be the location for the bank's compliance.
Much, much more at the zerohedge link. 

Of the three sites mentioned, only Plano makes sense. Not much to gain moving to Wilmington, DE. Columbus, OH? Are you kidding? Had North Carolina been in the mix that might have been different, but with North Carolina out of the mix, Dallas/Plano is the likely choice. 

Report at Bloomberg here.

I might have posted this article regardless but what caught my attention:
  • moving to Texas; but, even better, 
  • moving to Plano
Plano is about 15 minutes up the road from where we live. 

Plano is a major destination for companies moving to Texas. I would assume the #1 metropolitan area in Texas attracting out-of-state companies: DFW -- Dallas-Ft Worth area
  • In that area, the north side of the DFW airport is probably the biggest area attracting out-of-state business
  • and, in that area: Plano
Headline bullets over at Bloomberg:
  • JPMorgan mulls selling Manhattan tower inherited from Bear Stearns
  • company is reining in costs ahead of possible economic slump
The lede:
Despite more than two centuries of history in a city synonymous with the global financial industry, JPMorgan is quietly shrinking its workforce there. The bank has been building up its presence in other locations and is now considering relocating several thousand New York-based employees out of th area to help rein in costs ahead of a possible economic downturn.
My thoughts: Give me a break. Jamie Dimon would be doing this regardless of an economic downtown. An economic downtown lasts a few months at most; a major relocation lasts decades, perhaps longer.

Good for Jamie Dimon.

On a side note, it is interesting to see how various municipalities in Texas managed their growth. San Antonio pretty much absorbs neighboring towns, expanding its geographical footprint and tax basis. Dallas is constrained; not growing in geographic area. Cities to the north will stay independent: Plano, Frisco, McKinney.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 29, 2019

Surges in value? Belgian Malinois
The breed is used as a working dog for tasks including detection of odors such as explosives, accelerants (for arson investigation), and narcotics; tracking humans for suspect apprehension in police work; and search and rescue missions. The U.S. Secret Service uses Belgian Malinois to guard the grounds of the White House.
Permit stats, the Permian vs North Dakota:

The Market

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Free oil? Link here.
The U.S. has forfeited some $18 billion tied to oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico since 2000 because of a decades-old law that gave energy companies a break on paying royalties when drilling in deep waters, federal investigators concluded Thursday.
The foregone revenue will keep climbing, as energy companies continue to harvest oil and gas royalty-free from dozens of affected tracts in the Gulf, long after lawmakers realized sloppy legislative writing prevented the government from making the price breaks temporary.
Quiet: not much chatter over at twitter regarding oil. Lots of Saudi Arabia IPO talk but that's about it.

Internet: huge energy demand. If the article mentioned the high energy demand for bitcoin mining, I missed it.

Futures, Dow:
  •  down 36 points
    • momentum stock: INCY
  • companies reporting earning today: 258, of interest --
    • COP: 75 cents, before market open -- up 1.1% pre-market trading; report here:
      • earnings: $3.1 billion vs $1.9 billion same quarter last year
      • $2.74/share vs $1.59/share same quarter last year
      • adjusted earnings: 82 cents vs 75 cents forecast; $1.36/share adjust same quarter last year
      • repurchased $0.75 billion; paid $0.34 billion in dividends; a return of 41% to shareholders
      • 3Q19 production grew 7 percent overall (excludes Libya)
      • increased production from the Lower 48 Big 3 unconventionals by 21 percent y/y 
      • a reminder that COP recently raised its dividend significantly 
    • INCY: 65 cents 
    • Pfizer: 62 cents
    • GM: $1.31
    • AMD: after market close, 18 cents
    • Sprint: a loss of two cents
    • Kellogg: 91 cents
    • Yum China: 55 cents
    • Concho Resources: 69 cents
    • OKE: 74 cents after market close 
    • Nabors (NBR): a loss of 22 cents after market close
Other market news:
  • "everyone" expects the "Fed" to cut rates by 25 basis points
    • if this doesn't happen, Katie, bar the door
Later, 7:02 a.m.: whenever I see the Dow down, I immediately check Boeing :
  • BA: flat in pre-market trading; down about 67 cents/share
  • AAPL: flat; down about 0.17% (down 43 cents/share)
  • EPD: flat; down about 0.19% (down 5 cents/share) 
  • PCG: up almost 7% in pre-market trading; gains 26 cents on a $4.05/share stock
  • AMZN: back to where it was (in round numbers); all that talk about Jeff Bezos losing $8 billion -- what a bunch of crap

Four Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today -- October 29, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5966533469

Four wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, October 29, 2019: 94 for the month; 94 for the quarter:
  • 35282, 1,515, Enerplus, Blackberry 149-93-21B-22H, this well is tracked here; Mandaree, t4/19; cum 101K 8/19;(#22748 with jump in production)
  • 35281, 1,401, Enerplus, Boxwood 149-93-21B-22H-TF, this well is tracked here; Mandaree, t4/19; cum 78K 8/19;
  • 34923, 1,520, CLR, Collison 12-23H1, the Collison wells are tracked here; Avoca, t5/19; cum 106K 8/19;
  • 29376, SI/NC, Hess, EN-Chamley-156-93-0508H-6, Baskin, no production data,
RBN Energy: an insider's look at the ins and outs of international LPG trading.
U.S. LPG export volumes have climbed to astronomical levels this year. Almost 60% of U.S. propane production, or about 1.3 MMb/d on average so far in 2019, along with a sizable volume of butane, is being shipped to overseas markets, mostly to Asia. 
As anyone who’s talked shop with an LPG trader knows, international trading of propane and butane (collectively LPGs — Liquified Petroleum Gas) is a wild, roller-coaster kind of business. But how exactly does it all work? How do the players involved acquire the volumes, cut the deals with export dock owners, arrange for shipping and sell the cargoes to buyers? And, most importantly, how do these shippers make money? Today, we begin a series on international LPG trading that looks behind the curtain and drills down into the nuances that make the difference between success and failure in this traditionally opaque world.