Wednesday, October 24, 2018

Discoverer Of Propofol Awarded The 2018 American "Nobel" Prize In Clinical Medical Research --October 24, 2018

The Pharmaceutical Page
Milk of Amnesia
On The WHO's List of Essential Medications

Talk about coincidental. For reasons to be discussed later, I was curious about propofol. Look at this (the entire article is worth reading).
The 2018 Lasker~DeBakey Clinical Medical Research Award honors John B. (Iain) Glen (retired from AstraZeneca), who discovered and developed propofol, a chemical whose rapid action and freedom from residual effects have made it the most widely used agent for induction of anesthesia in patients throughout the world. In 2016, the World Health Organization deemed propofol an “essential medicine” and at the time of that decision, more than 190 million people had received the drug.
The Lasker Foundation: link here.
The Lasker Awards have been awarded annually since 1945 to living persons who have made major contributions to medical science or who have performed public service on behalf of medicine.
They are administered by the Lasker Foundation, founded by Albert Lasker and his wife Mary Woodard Lasker (later a medical research activist).
The awards are sometimes referred to as "America's Nobels". Lasker Award has gained a reputation for identifying future winners of the Nobel Prize. Eighty-six Lasker laureates have received the Nobel Prize, including 32 in the last two decades.
The four main awards are: 
  • Albert Lasker Basic Medical Research Awar
  • Lasker-DeBakey Clinical Medical Research Award
  • Lasker-Bloomberg Public Service Award (Renamed in 2011 from Mary Woodard Lasker Public Service Award. Renamed in 2000 from Albert Lasker Public Service Award.) 
  • Lasker-Koshland Special Achievement Award in Medical Science (1994–)

Propofol, or "purple flow" as some call it here in north Texas. 

From wiki:
Propofol, marketed as Diprivan among other names, is a short-acting medication that results in a decreased level of consciousness and lack of memory for events.
Its uses include the starting and maintenance of general anesthesia, sedation for mechanically ventilated adults, and procedural sedation.
Maximum effect takes about two minutes to occur and it typically lasts five to ten minutes.
Common side effects include an irregular heart rate, low blood pressure, burning sensation at the site of injection, and the stopping of breathing.
Propofol is not a pain medication, so opioids such as morphine may also be used.
Propofol is believed to work at least partly via a receptor for GABA.
Propofol was discovered in 1977 and approved for use in the United States in 1989.
It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the most effective and safe medicines needed in a health system.[
It is available as a generic medication.
The wholesale price in the developing world is between 0.61 and 8.50 USD per vial.
It has been referred to as milk of amnesia (a play on milk of magnesia) because of the milk-like appearance of the intravenous preparation.
From Consumer Reports:
  • risks
  • costs
  • note: the article is dated 2014

Gasoline Demand Shows A Bit Of Life; Did Some One Tell A Mis-Truth When Mailing Those "Suspected" Explosive Devices -- October 24, 2018

Link here.

4-Second Elevator "Speech"

Finally, we can say it. Global demand for crude oil to hit 100 million bopd any day now.  US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia produce about a third of that.

Natural Gas

For what it's worth: a SeekingAlpha contributor suggests natural gas could double in price this winter/next summer.

Here's what I pointed out some weeks ago: there's enough historical evidence to suggest that it is not unthinkable to think that natural gas could triple in price.

Global LNG Production 
Qatar, US, and Australia. Can't we all just get along? Some great stats.

Federal Courts Need To Get Things Back Under Control

WCS: how much is Alberta "losing" because the TransMountain Pipeline expansion was killed? $100 million / day. Per day. Around $60 million / month goes into the North Dakota Legacy Fund. Divided by 30 days that works out to $2 million / day. Compare that to $100 million / day in Alberta. British Columbia's First Nation is costing Alberta $100 million / day. Democratic values and greater good issues come to mind.

The North Texas Deluge Continues

Linked here -- record-setting October -- rain and cold. In the screenshot below, Tuesday is October 23, 2018 -- another full week to go. But look at that: cold and rain. DFW Airport with 15 more inches of rain that it usually gets in October. To put this in perspective, the average total annual rainfall in Portland, OR is 36.69 inches (posted Jul 18, 2017 -- at least that's what wiki says). So far in our backyard -- we still have two rainy months to go -- almost 44 inches of rain this year.

Someone Must Have Lied -- Or Told a Mis-truth

If this was hand-delivered by a non-postal employee, that's one thing, but if this was actually accepted by the US Postal Service, how did this ever get accepted? Whenever you mail a package through USPS you have to declare whether it's a pipe bomb or not. But then again, if not an explosive, not illegal to mail, I suppose. First thought: "clock boy."

Nine Point Energy With Three New Permits; Petro-Hunt Reports Two DUCs Completed -- Both Short Laterals -- Not Often Seen Any More -- October 24, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs68533568194

Nine new permits:
  • Operators: MRO (4); Nine Point Energy (3); Petro-Hunt (2)
  • Fields: Four Bears (McKenzie); Ragged Butte (McKenzie); Little Knife (Billings)
  • Comments: Little Knife is tracked here but has not been updated in a long time; I had forgotten how huge Little Knife is -- it stretches all the way form the reservation down to Billings County; amazing; Nine Point has permits for a 3-well Lee pad in 17-151-101; MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in 17-152-93; and, Petro-Hunt has permits for 2-well Zabolotny pad in lot 4, section 3-144-98;
Two producing wells completed:
  • 32696, 886, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18B-4H, Charlson, t10/18; cum --; one section; #23080, #23079, neighboring;
  • 34073, 601, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-18C-3H, Charlson, t9/18; cum --; one section; #23079, neighboring;
Operator transfer:
  • Hess transfers about 50 Madison wells to Scout Energy Management; these Madison wells are all int he Fryburg Heath-Madison Unit in Billings County

Notes From All Over -- Are We Having Fun Yet? -- October 24, 2018

Slammed: Equity markets. 

CBR, future: link here. Might write about it later. Probably not. 

Massive earthquake stops fracking operation in England! Wow, talk about coincidental. I just talked about this frack yesterday -- implied that most Brits thought it was a bad, bad thing. Another link here. Screenshot from twitter ...

Playlist. Speaking of bad, bad things. This song is longer on MbS's playlist -- the title says it all, but the  lyrics don't fit ... whatever ... they did a bad, bad thing; I feel like crying ..

Baby Did A Bad, Bad Thing, Chris Isaak

Weather report: another downpour in north Texas. Wow. Two weeks of rain. Fourteen days? Noah -- 40 days of rain or something like that, but in those days people lived to be 700 years of age, or something like, so I assume a 14-day rain in north Texas is the same as a 40-day rain in Genesis.

The flood --> the Ark --> Mt Ararat --> Turkey --> Catalhöyük. Howard Bloom, The God Problem, 2016, introduced me to the latter. A huge, long-researched, multi-national-archaeological team-site in south-central Turkey, near Konya. Catalhöyük changed the way that you and I think -- at least that's what Howard says on page 81. Instead of building a walled, circular city like Jericho -- the first city ever with manmade walls, they say -- the citizens of Catalhöyük did something completely different. First, they used mud -- a local natural resource to make mudbricks and then built a "city" of straight lines, right angles, and flat surfaces. From wiki:
The population of the eastern mound has been estimated to be, at maximum, 10,000 people, but the population likely varied over the community’s history. An average population of between 5,000 and 7,000 is a reasonable estimate. The sites were set up as large numbers of buildings clustered together. Households looked to their neighbors for help, trade, and possible marriage for their children.

The inhabitants lived in mudbrick houses that were crammed together in an aggregate structure. No footpaths or streets were used between the dwellings, which were clustered in a honeycomb-like maze. Most were accessed by holes in the ceiling and doors on the side of the houses, with doors reached by ladders and stairs. The rooftops were effectively streets. The ceiling openings also served as the only source of ventilation, allowing smoke from the houses' open hearths and ovens to escape. Houses had plaster interiors characterized by squared-off timber ladders or steep stairs. These were usually on the south wall of the room, as were cooking hearths and ovens. The main rooms contained raised platforms that may have been used for a range of domestic activities. Typical houses contained two rooms for everyday activity, such as cooking and crafting. All interior walls and platforms were plastered to a smooth finish. Ancillary rooms were used as storage, and were accessed through low openings from main rooms.
All rooms were kept scrupulously clean. Archaeologists identified very little rubbish in the buildings, finding middens outside the ruins, with sewage and food waste, as well as significant amounts of wood ash. In good weather, many daily activities may also have taken place on the rooftops, which may have formed a plaza. In later periods, large communal ovens appear to have been built on these rooftops. Over time, houses were renewed by partial demolition and rebuilding on a foundation of rubble, which was how the mound was gradually built up. As many as eighteen levels of settlement have been uncovered.
The Turks have "known" honey since antiquity. One wonders ...

Morning Note; RBN Energy On The Bakken -- A Must Read -- October 24, 2018

Mideast correspondent's report:


Weather report: another day of rain in north Texas.

Ship-building report: the DFW "ark" -- christened the USS Cruiz -- is about 75% complete.

Bomb report: 

Weekly petroleum report: EIA weekly report;
  • API yesterday -- huge, huge draw; almost 10 million bbls; one expects to see a swing of no more than 2 million bbls; rarely a swing of 6 million bbls; but 10 million bbls -- wow; so let's see what the EIA weekly report says -- up next; and here it is ..
  • US crude oil inventories, EIA data -- increased by 6.3 million bbls; supports API data yesterday
  • US crude oil inventories at a whopping 423 million bbls; my threshold is 400 million bbls; up from a personal threshold of 350 million bbls (Bush II and Obama decades);
  • US crude oil inventories: 2% above the 5-year average for this time of the year; 
  • refineries operating capacity not much more than last week, at 89%
  • gasoline and distillate production right at threshold, even to first decimal: 10.0 million bbls and 5.0 million bbls, respectively
  • imports seem to be leveling off, finally (rate of growth in imports leveling off, to be more specific)
  • look at this: gasoline production right at "threshold"; but, total gasoline inventories are 6% above the 5-year average; despite the inventory dropping by 5 million bbls last week; as noted last week, expect fairies on flying pigs to lower the price of gasoline on those big electric price signs -- that should happen tonight while you are sleeping; LOL; 
  • but Americans are flying more than ever; jet fuel supplied was up 1% compared with same four-week period last year -- so why are airlines telling us their fuel costs are increasing -- a glut of oil, and an increase in jet fuel, and yet they say their prices are rising? Sure.
  • years ago I said that one regional airline was an "oil company," not an airline; it made more money hedging jet fuel / oil prices
  • heating oil? good news? distillate fuel supplied was up by 7% form same period last year
  • gasoline demand graph will be released later today
Upstream: planning more spending. Link here
  • 2014: $750 billion (peak)
  • 2016: $460 billion ("a low")
  • 2017: a 2% increase, year-over-year
  • 2018: 5% increase, year-over-year
  • early 2020's projected: $500 billion 
  • nice article; more at the link
  • note: the headline to this suggested that a significant increase in CAPEX was needed; and likely; but look at the actual forecast. 2016 was a low for CAPEX investment at $460 billion vs a high of 750 billion in 2014; new forecast; $500 billion in early 2020's -- now, maybe it's just me, but $500 billion is .... well, let me put it this way, $460 billion (a "low") rounds to $500 billion; and $500 billion is a whole lot close to the "low" of $460 vs the high of $750 only four years ago
  • color me: not impressed; not worried -- that would be neon carrot, #FF9933; at this link;
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Energy investing: if you are invested in energy today and you need your cash, you are probably not a happy camper. I haven't look at the market today (and have no plans to) but I suspect ... whatever.... now, two things come to mind. First, buying opportunity, if one has a long horizon. Greater than six months. Second, the major oil companies are drowning in cash. What do CEOs and directors do when their companies are doing great but their stocks are not doing so great? Generally, they like to reward shareholders. As in dividend increases. So, we'll see. Whistling past the graveyard as they say.

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, October 24, 2018:
  • 33556, 1,556, CLR, Mountain Gap 2-10H1, Rattlesnake Point, a nice well: Mountain Gap wells are tracked here; t7/18; cum 47K 8/18;
  • 34666, SI/NC, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, no production data, see this post.
  • 34449, SI/NC, MRO, Grant USA 21-18 TFH, Van Hook, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs68533568194

RBN Energy: what's going on with Bakken prices? And are constraints on the horizon? Archived.
The discount for Bakken crude prices at Clearbrook to WTI at Cushing has been on a rollercoaster in recent weeks, widening from $1.30/bbl at the beginning of September 2018 to over $10/bbl in mid-October and narrowing again most recently.
There are several factors at play here. Canadian production has overwhelmed area pipelines and prices are being heavily discounted.
These cheap Canadian barrels are creating oversupply issues at markets that Bakken barrels also trade into.
On the demand side, Midwestern refiners are in the middle of seasonal turnarounds, reducing the demand for both Bakken and Canadian grades.
Meanwhile, Bakken production growth continues to steadily chug along, increasing by over 150 Mb/d since the beginning of the year. And while this recent Bakken price angst is cause for concern, there is a looming bottleneck for pipeline space that could really shake things up sometime next year. Today, we examine the recent price phenomenon, the relationship between Canadian crude differentials and Bakken prices, and why producers should be concerned about future pipeline shortages.