Friday, September 13, 2019

It Looks Like We Won't See The Friday Daily Activity Report Until Monday -- Bummer -- Daily Report Pending; CLR With Seven More LCU Permits? -- September 13, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6465553569

New permits: pending -- have to wait until Monday -- bummer -- most likely, #36954 - #36960, inclusive:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Long Creek (Williams)
  • Comments: CLR has 7 more permits for the Long Creek Unit
    • LCU Ralph: 3 permits; section 22-153-99, Long Creek Unit;
    • LCU Reckitt Federal: 4 permits; section 22-153-99; Long Creek Unit
The CLR LCU Wells

September 13, 2019: seven new LCU wells, #36954 - #36960, inclusive; LCU Ralph / LCU Reckitt Federal, added; three wells go from loc to conf; several wells go to drl status; eight LCU wells now on drl status; the LCU wells are tracked here;

Off The Net For Awhile -- September 13, 2019


The Thirteenth.

Full moon.


What could possibly go wrong?

MoviePass (Movie Pass) dead?

Oasis -- September 13, 2019

Three data points.

1. Oasis reported some very nice Mildred Nelson wells yesterday --
  • 34717, 1,330, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25W 2B, Elidah, t4/19; cum 160K 7/19;
  • 34716, 1,070, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25W 3T, Elidah, t4/19; cum 117K 7/19;
  • 34715, 892, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 12-25W 4B, Elidah, t4/19; cum 135K 7/19;
2. Oasis quietly laid off a few workers in the Bakken over the past few weeks, according to sources

3. Comparing the Bakken with the Permian (Oasis presentation). Post here.

US Natural Gas -- September 13, 2019

The new reports are staggering -- the amount of US natural gas reserves.

Zeroes (groups of three)
  • million: 6 (2)
  • billion: 9 (3)
  • trillion: 12 (4)
  • quadrillion: 15 (5)
  • quintillion: 18  (6)
Let's start with this from a reader:
New assessment just released. This assessment is released every two years.

Record resource of 3.4 quadrillion cubic feet of potential gas.
That's about 120 years at current use consumption. If you add in the proved reserves (not included in above), it's about 3.8 thousand trillion cubic feet, or 140 years of runway.

It was the biggest ever jump since 2016. Mostly driven by shale in the Appalachian region.

Of course the peak oilers are unhappy. But then shale gas has figuratively held them down on the schoolyard playground and drooled on them.

By the way, I know you love you some tight oil and the Bakken. But the shale gas story is just, as the kids would say, "sick". Massive resource AND low prices. No OPEC cuts needed here. Shale gas just crushed that market. Here (and more and more) overseas as well. Net exports (not just exports, but NET exports).

And the NGL byproducts...propane is just this massive under-reported story. US went from being an importer to now exporting more than any other country (on top of supplying its own increased consumption).

*Quadrillion cubic feet. You know the TCF as trillion cubic feet. A QCF is a thousand TCF. I'm starting a movement to popularize this unit. "We're gonna need a bigger unit" to handle this shale phenomenon.
The average American on the street has no idea.

Two additional points:
  • this is only natural gas -- it does not include natural gas coming out of Canada; for Canada add in another 1.2 quadrillion cubic feet
  • propane: look how things have changed in the just the few years that I have been blogging; early on I even had a tag, "propane_shortage_2013_2014" due to the propane shortage in the US ... wow, what a change!
Energy in the US? Democrats want to nationalize the oil and gas sector.
  • Bernie: resist!
  • Buttigieg: change course!
  • Beto: re-set!
  • Biden: what just happened? We need to get back to "normal."
Where's the beef?

And this still remains my favorite photograph of the year:

Fried chicken: compliments of natural gas.

Renewable Energy

EV sales: Huge, huge story yesterday. I noted it earlier this week, and was surprised I didn't read anything about it but now I see others have also noticed: for first time ever in modern history, global sales of EVs have fallen.

EV pickups: GM and Ford rushing to leap-frog Tesla. One gets the feeling that Ford and GM learned that lesson from decades ago when cheap Japanese imports ended up overtaking Ford/GM. They don't that to happen again with EVs. 

Brits: not happy with solar energy. Well, duh. Solar energy and British Isles in the same sentence? Duh. Isn't "fog" synonymous with the British Isles?

Germany: wind energy imploding. They don't want it either.

The Apple Page -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 13, 2019

It's my impression that big things are happening with Apple right now. I think it was the focus on pricing, Apple TV, and the iPad that got my attention.

The number of "positive" articles about Apple's recent announcements was notable.

AAPL now sports a $1.01 trillion market cap.

Apple TV is a game changer.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market cap: $1.008 trillion yesterday, but with shares likely to fall today, AAPL could drop below $1 trillion. MSFT at 1.061 trillion and should open higher today. Yesterday, AAPL hit fourth straight gain to 11-month high.

Mastercard: Apple Card -- a good investment for Mastercard North American according to its CEO.

LOL: this is the reason AAPL shares slid a bit yesterday. Goldman Sachs says that by offering free trial for Apple TV+, earnings will be hurt. Oh, give me a break.

Chinese tariffs? What tariffs? New, better iPhone less expensive than the model it replaces, and most folks agree that previous model was best iPhone ever. Price cut for an iPhone despite tariffs? Who wudda thought.

Walgreens: offers higher rate with Apple Card cash-back program; Walgreens will now sell more Apple accessories. Isn't that interesting? Walgreens. Isn't that where Rogaine is sold?

Apple watch: always-on display will be a big hit.

iPad: entry-level 10.2-inch iPad -- the only Apple tablet without a modifier like Air, Mini, or Pro -
  • first time there is no current iPad with a 9.7-inch screen, the first time that has happened in the history of the device. Huge change, and very, very welcome.  
  • But this is what blows me away: starts at $329. The iPad Pro starts at $799, and I doubt most folks will be able to tell much of a difference. iPad:
    • retina display
    • A10 Fusion chip
    • supports 1st generation Apple Pencil and Smart Keyboard
iPad Pro: Apple's 1 terabyte iPad Pro is now $200 less expensive. 

Focus on pricing: it is clear that Tim Cook slashed prices across the board.

Smartest thing Apple did regarding new iPhone: not 5G capable. Why? US doesn't have 5G regardless of what television ads imply.

By the way: 5G will be another "thing" that Balkanizes the US. States like Texas will be "all in" when it comes to 5G. California? Not so much.

Only One Well Coming Off Confidential List Today -- September 13, 2019

EVs: it finally dawned on me why the "EV scoreboard" has not been completed US auto manufacturers no longer report sales on a monthly basis; I assume that may be true for a few other manufacturers. Not reporting this month:
  • Chevrolet
  • Ford
  • Kia
  • Porsche
  • Volvo
  • Hyundai
  • Subaru
EVs: most ridiculous EV sales reports (manufacturers, sales in August):
  • Mercedes B250e: 1 -- not a typo -- they sold one. Really? One? 
  • BMW 740e: 1. Not a typo. One.
  • BMWX5 xDrive 40e: 2. Twice as many as the BWM 740e, but then the BWMX5 xDrive 40e has more than twice the number of letters in its name ...
  • BMW 330e: 6
Back to the Bakken

Only one well comes off the confidential list today -- Friday, September 13, 2019: 40 for the month; 172 for the quarter:
  • 35520, conf, Hess, EN-Davenport-LE-156-94-1003H-1,  
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6465553569

RBN Energy: upcoming capacity expansions on TC Energy's NGTL system, part 6. Archived.
The options for moving Western Canada’s natural gas supply out of the region are limited. This situation has become more acute in the past few years with the upswing in associated gas production from specific areas within the sprawling region, meaning that not all the takeaway pipelines are created equal in terms of being able to move this incremental gas supply to downstream markets. One pipeline system — TC Energy’s mammoth Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL) network — is ideally located to help out, given that big parts of it run through the fastest-growing production areas. But it’s been running full and is increasingly constrained. Will the planned expansions to the NGTL system be enough? Today, we continue our series on the Western Canadian natural gas market with a look at TC Energy’s NGTL network, the largest and most geographically advantaged of the pipeline systems in the region.