Thursday, January 23, 2020

The XTO Satter Wells In Siverston Oil Field

The wells:
  • 29584, 2,057, XTO, Satter 21X-1B, Siverston, t7/15; cum 263K 11/19;
  • 29583, 316, XTO, Satter 21X-1F, Siverston, t8/15; cum 199K 11/19;
  • 29582, 1,598, XTO, Satter 21X-1C, Siverston, t8/15; cum 194K 11/19;
  • 29579, 1,270, XTO, Satter 31X-1CXD, Siverston, t12/15; cum 141K 11/19;
  • 29578, 1,479, XTO, Satter 31X-1G2, Siverston, t12/15; cum 139K 11/19;
  • 29577, 1290, XTO, Satter 31X-1D, Siverston, t12/15; cum 147K 11/19;
  • 29576, 1,184, XTO, Satter 31X-1H, Siverston, t12/15; cum 154K 11/19;

  • 21085, 933, XTO, Satter 24-35NEH, Siverston, t1/12; cum 347K 11/19;
  • 21084, 1,497, XTO, Satter 24-35SEH, Siverston, t1/12; cum 367K 11/19;

  • 20683, 1,419, XTO, Satter 31-1SWH, Siverston, t11/11; cum 282K 11/19;

  • 19434, 1,221, XTO, Satter 44-34SWH, Siverston, t4/11; cum 348K 11/19;
  • 19433, 3,000, XTO, Satter 44-34NWH, Siverston, t5/11; cum 290K 11/19; off line as of 10/19;

Two New Permits -- January 23, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5463573847

Two new permits, #37354 - #37355, inclusive:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Siverston (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • XTO has permits for a two-well Satter pad in Siverston oil field, section 35-151-98;
One producing well (DUC) now reported as completed:
  • 34637, 180, Slawson, Wolverine Federal 14-31-30TF2H, 44 stages; 9.2 million lbs; Elm Tree; t12/19; cum --;


Add another one.

"Don't Forget To Remember," recorded May 7, 1969.

Don't Forget To Remember Me, BeeGees

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 23, 2020

Over at Twitter today, retreated from last month:

Or I suppose one might ask: I wonder how much worse "heart disease mortality" would have been had butter use not fell below four pounds.

Natural Gas Stores Increasing In The Middle Of Winter -- January 23, 2020

Natural gas fill rate, link here.

Pay some time looking at this graphic; it's rather amazing on so many levels.

Quick! What month is it? What season is it?

Answers: January. Winter. 

And natural gas stores are already starting to increase. [See first comment: I was wrong: natural gas stores continue to decrease, just not as fast as the previous week.]

Comparing The New EPD Cryogenic Processing Plant In East Texas With That Proposed For Williams County -- January 23, 2020

We talked about this yesterday: infrastructure build-out starting to show dividends. Now this, from Rigzone: Enterprise starts gas processing at its new Bulldog cryogenic natural gas processing plant in Panola County, Texas. Data points:
  • 200 million cubic feet per day of natural gas
  • can extract up to 12,0000 bbls/day of natural gas liquids
  • combined with its existing Panola cryogenic facility:
    • 320 MMcf/d and 18,000 bpd of NGLs within the region
So, let's compare this with the Outrigger-XOM facility proposed for Williams County:
Outrigger Energy II LLC announced today that it has entered into a long-term definitive gas gathering and processing agreement with XTO Energy, Inc. to service XTO’s production in Williams County, ND.
The gathering system will comprise a 70-mile, 20- and 24-inch diameter, rich gas pipeline originating in eastern Williams County and terminating at a new 250 MMcfd cryogenic gas processing plant located west of Williston, ND. 
Plans are also underway for a plant expansion of up to an additional 200 MMcfd, for total gas processing capacity of 450 MMcfd.

Twitter-Sphere's Big Energy Story Today -- Being Tweeted By Everyone -- US Gasoline Inventories At Record Highs -- January 23, 2020

Why? Because US light, tight, sweet oil is absolutely perfect for "making" gasoline. The margins must be huge. I don't know.

Just one example from twitter today:

St Louis Fed doesn't suggest fewer miles being driven due to "drive-sharing apps" and "buying more stuff on line." What's the difference in mileage using Uber or using your own vehicle? What nonsense. "Buying more stuff on line?" Really? No.

We buy a lot of stuff online -- that just frees us up to drive to different places, but doesn't mean we're driving any less. Full-time working / soccer moms know this.

It has to do with LTO being the right kind of oil for making gasoline. [Also for sea-going tankers; IMO 2020.]

October, 2019, St Louis Fed: all-time record for US vehicular miles:

Random Look At Well With Jump In Production -- Equinor Beaux -- #23992 -- January 23, 2020

The well:

  • 23992, 5,417, Equinor, Beaux 18-19 7H, 31 stages; 3.9 million lbs; Banks, t8/13; cum 444K 11/19; no evidence of re-frack per Fracfocus;
The Beaux wells are tracked here.

Full production profile here.

Period of production of interest:

WTI Tumbles; Weekly EIA Crude Oil Production -- January 23, 2020

Wow! WTI tumbles: down 3%; down $1.77; trading below $55.

Link here for EIA's weekly crude oil production numbers:
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million bbls from the previous week (false precision, clearly).
  • US crude oil inventories stand at 428.1 million bbls, about 2% below the five-year average for this time of the year.
  • Refiners are operating at 90.5% of their capacity (really, really low).
  • US crude oil imports averaged only 6.4 million bopd, down 120,000 bopd from the previous week.
  • plenty of gasoline; and, 
  • jet fuel supplied was up 3.8% compared to same four-week period last year
Week Ending
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
Week 1
November 28, 2018
Week 2
December 6, 2018
Week 3
December 12, 2018
Week 4
December 19, 2018
Week 5
December 28, 2018
Week 49
October 30, 2019
Week 50
November 6, 2019
Week 51
November 14, 2019
Week 52
November 20, 2019
Week 53
November 27, 2019
Week 54
December 4, 2019
Week 55
December 11, 2019
Week 56
December 18, 2019
Week 57
December 27, 2019
Week 58
January 3, 2020
Week 59
January 8, 2020
Week 60
January 15, 2020
Week 61
January 23, 2020

Legacy Fund Deposits Posted -- January 2020

Link here.

Everything Points To Hillary Getting Back Into The Race

A report yesterday suggested that Bloomberg was surging in the polls. Actually, he was not.

However, that poll certainly suggests that Hillary is recalculating, recalculating, recalculating.

Why Hillary feels she needs to get back into the race:

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- January 23, 2020

LNG: in uncharted territory. Rigzone LNG industry set six new records in 2019 --
  • a sustained growth trend including a more than 50% increase in global capacity
  • global LNG supply was up 11.8% from the previous year
  • new investment: 40% higher than the previous record set in 2005
  • US, Russia, and Mozambique set individual country-level highs
  • level of liquefaction investment without long-term contracts or underpinned by sales to affiliates hit record territory last year
  • new  liquefaction start-ups last year represents an all-time high, narrowly beating the previous record set in 2009
  • cluster of start-ups in Australia, Russia, and the US
  • Australia bypassed Qatar in 2019 as the world's top LNG exporter
  • Europe set LNG import records every single month in 2019 and for the year as a whole 
  • China: imported record LNG volumes for the fourth consecutive year in 2019, taking 13.4% more LNG from the previous year
  • China overtook Japan as the world's top LNG importer in December, 2019
  • Japan likely to remain the world's leading LNG importer on a total annual basis through 2020;
  • Japan's overall LNG imports have been trending downward since 2015 
Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5463573847

Three new wells reporting today -- Thursday, January 23, 2020: 83 for the month; 83 for the quarter, 83 for the year:
  • 36291, drl, Rimrock, Two Shields Butte 3-24-12-2H3, Mandaree, the final of four north-drilling wells in the Two Shields Butte DSU; Three Forks formation first bench; target zone 28' thick; 12 drilling days;; gas ranged from 50 to 400 units;
  • 36261, drl, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek, 98.7% of the lateral was drilled within the middle Bakken target; and, 1.3% drilled outside the target;
  • 35461, 1,157, CLR, Weisz 2-11HSL, four sections, 43 stages; 10.5 million lbs; Beaver Lodge, t11/19; cum 42K 11/19; a 33K month; final vertical and curve on a 3-well pad, the first lateral drilled; "batch drilling"; all three vertical and curve sections were drilled prior to drilling the Weisz 2-11HSL lateral; 112.6 drilling hours; gas shows were very good; average background of 800 units with a peck show of over 8,000 units; a 15 - 20' trip flare was observed; 12 drilling days from spud to TD; within the middle Bakken for 82% of the lateral wellbore;
RBN Energy: natural gas buyers party like it's 1999.
After holding above $2/MMBtu in the first half of January, the CME/NYMEX February natural gas futures contract caved in this week, closing Tuesday and Wednesday at $1.895/MMBtu and $1.905/MMBtu, respectively. The last time we saw prices this low was in March 2016. But to see such levels trading in January, typically one of the coldest and highest-demand months of the year, you’d have to go back more than two decades — to 1999. Today, we explain the fundamentals behind the price collapse earlier this week and its implications for the 2020 gas market.
The U.S. natural gas market has been in a precarious state for some months now. We discussed some of the fundamental challenges facing the market in a couple of late-injection-season blogs.
At the time, Lower-48 dry gas production volumes had been ascending for several months straight (since July 2019) and peaked in late-November above 96 Bcf/d. Lower-48 consumption — from power generation, industrial and residential/commercial (res/comm) customers — was high and setting records of its own. But the consumption gains were modest compared with the supply increases, and were undercut by summer weather that was milder than the previous year. Also, some of the LNG export demand from new liquefaction trains that had been expected much earlier in the year came too late in the injection season to affect the inventory build-up. All that led to the market by October wiping out any remaining storage deficit versus the previous year and the five-year average, and further, amassing a large surplus in storage compared with a year earlier. Prompt-month prices, which already were trading lower than 2018, peeled even lower and by October/November were skimming near multi-decade lows for that time of year — and not just for a day here and there, but on a monthly and seasonal average basis.
Despite these bearish factors, the bulls in the market held on. The coldest, highest gas-demand months of the year were still ahead, after all — there was still the possibility that an exceptionally cold winter could reverse their fortunes. Plus, as absolute temperatures dropped heading into winter and seasonal wellhead freeze-offs took effect, production receded from the peak seen in late November, providing some support to prices.
Well, now, it’s fair to say that any bullish optimism hinging on prolonged winter heating demand has evaporated in recent days.