Thursday, June 21, 2018

Random Update Of Some Older Wells -- June 21, 2018

This well had a nice jump in production in December, 2017, after being off line for about four months; now over 500,000 bbls of oil:
  • 18579, 2,006, Oasis/SM, Jorgenson 1-30H, Bear Den, Bakken, tested 12/10; 120K by 6/11; cum 514K 4/18;
Another MRO well with huge jump in production; noted 8/17:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another well that has gone over 500K bbls cumulative:
Another well that has gone over 500K bbls cumulative:
  • 18924, 1,361, Vixen Federal 1-19-30H, t2/11; Van Hook, Bakken; cum 505K 4/18;
Another well that has gone over 500K bbls cumulative:
  • 18922, 472, WPX/Dakota-3/Zenergy, Skunk Creek 1-12H/Dakota-3 Skunk Creek, South Fork, Bakken, t6/11; cum 545K 4/18;
This well has gone over 650K bbls cumulative: 
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, Oakdale, Bakken, t5/11; cum 651K 4/18;
Another well that has gone over 500K bbls cumulative:
  • 18943, 2,169, WLL, Locken 14-9XH, Sanish, Bakken, t11/10; cum 559K 4/18;
Another well that has gone over 500K bbls cumulative:
  • 18546, 3,424, Enerplus, Ethan Hall 6B-31-30-1H, McGregory Buttes, t12/10; cum 537K 4/18; recently went off line; 
A short lateral that has gone over 500K bbls cumulative:
  • 18825, 951, EOG, Van Hook 8-36H, Van Hook, Bakken, single section;100K in 5 months -- whoo-hoo! t7/10; cum 590K 4/18;

Apparently Someone Missed The Three-Day Forecast -- June 21, 2018; Long-Term Forecast -- Arctic Sea Ice Volume Growing At Alarming Rates


June 27, 2018: Arctic Sea almost completely frozen over. It's summer in the northern hemisphere. Source here.

Original Post 

Pardon the interruption. I was going to post this "growing ice" story at the bottom of this post but in certain respects it's more important than the Garrison story.

Huge correction: a huge "thank you" to a reader. I posted this as an "Antarctic" story originally -- no wonder I was confused. It's my understanding that the Antarctic is declining a bit this year, so when I saw the story below, I was confused. Then a reader noted that this was an article on the Arctic and not the Antarctic. It's been corrected.  

I've been following the Antarctic/Arctic ice story this year closer than usual. We're getting a lot of conflicting information -- apparently it depends which source one uses to follow the Antarctic/Arctic ice volume. This story and the graphic below pertains to the Arctic.

This is from the recognized best source -- the DMI -- the Danish Meteorological Institute. In addition to the graphic, there is an explanation why the story is so confusing this year -- lots of "fake news."
The blackest line (on the chart below) shows current Arctic sea-ice volume. Note that it is greater than in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and is on track to break the 2004 to 2014 mean.
“Actually the current news should not be that there is less sea-ice, but more,” says ready Caleb Shaw. “How much more? The DMI “volume” graph suggests there is 4500 km³ more ice this year than last year. But the media? Crickets.”

The graphic:

Back to the Bakken
Three days ago, it was reported that the US Army Corps of Engineers would be increasing the Garrison Dam release from the usual 44,000 cfs to 52,000 cfs.

We know that the earth is going to be 0.2 degrees warmer a hundred years from now but apparently we all missed the forecast for more rain.

This from The Bismarck Tribune:
Operations manager Todd Lindquist confirmed Wednesday evening that water releases from Garrison Dam will be increased again from 52,000 cubic feet per second, equal to 388,987 gallons per second, to 60,000 cfs by Saturday. On Wednesday, the flows had reached 48,700 cfs, according to a daily report by the corps.
Just on Monday, the levels were expected to reach the 12-foot stage overnight near Bismarck, but now those water levels will reach 13 feet by Saturday, Lindquist said. 
“The increased flows from the Garrison Dam represent a real concern for downstream communities,” said Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., on Wednesday. “We need to ensure the entire river system is being managed in a way that prevents an unexpected rise in river levels, that includes releases from Garrison Dam as well as from dams further downstream."
And this from MyNDNow:
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers today made it official today: Garrison Dam water releases will increase to 60,000 cfs by Friday.
In a statement issued this morning, the Corps' Missouri River Basin Water Management Division said releases will be stepped up from 52,000 cfs to 60,000 cfs over the next three days.
The Garrison reservoir is currently at 1851.6 feet. It is expected to peak near 1852.4 feet in the next two weeks as runoff from the remaining mountain snow pack tapers off.
The 60,000 cfs release rate is expected to continue into mid-July.
The increased release means the river stage near Bismarck will rise from 11.5 feet to 13 feet.
Flood stage at Bismarck is 14.5 feet.
Garrison releases are being increased due to recent rains in the area from Fort Peck to Garrison.
“Widespread rains across much of the Missouri River Basin have increased inflows into the System dams and have also increased flows on tributaries downstream of the System,” said John Remus, Chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.
One can't make this stuff up.  

And then more, from Don. Thank you. This is from
The rising levels of the Missouri River. The water level has raised concern as the Army Corps of Engineers continues to release more water from the Garrison Dam. For a lot of North Dakotans, it's creating fear of a repeat of the 2011 flood.
Our Malique Rankin has been researching water releases from the Army Corp.
She compares and breaks down for us how those numbers look in 2018, in comparison to 2011.

During the 2011 flood, on May 30th, water was released from the dam at 85,000 CFS.
To put that in perspective, that's 25,000 CFS more than the rate we are expected to hit this weekend. In 2011, releases hit a high on June 17th, at 150,000 cubic feet per second. Releases were rising on a near daily basis for weeks in June. 

There is a tag for the 2011 flood at the bottom of the blog. 

Seven New Permits; Active Rigs At 64 - June 21, 2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs64592777189

Seven new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (5); True Oil; Liberty ResourcesFields: Heart Butte (Dunn); Red
  • Wing Creek (McKenzie); White Earth (Mountrail)
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 5-well FBIR Youngbear wells in NWNE 9-148-92
And, that was all.

The Comments Are Still Not Working -- Sorry -- I Have No Idea Why -- June 21, 2018

I'll be off the net for awhile; family commitments.

June, 2018, Legacy Fund Deposits Just Posted -- June 21, 2018

Legacy Fund investment allocations, from The Jamestown Sun:
  • equity: 50%
  • fixed income: 35%
  • real assets: 15%
"We just want Steady Eddy. That's the best way to invest."

It seems we should be able to see the entire portfolio.

Most Recent Deposit

Link here.

A 3.1% increase over the previous recent high back in March, 2018.

A 13.2% increase month-over-month.

On a percentage basis, going up faster than atmospheric CO2.

From The Bismarck Tribune from a couple of months ago:
Meanwhile, the Legacy Fund has received monthly deposits in excess of $50 million for most months this calendar year—a number not seen since August 2015. Legacy Fund dollars are derived from 30 percent of state oil and gas tax revenue, which declined in recent years due to sagging oil prices.
Politicians are eager to start spending that Legacy Fund money. They're already spending 70% of the oil and gas tax revenue -- the Legacy Fund only skims 30% off the top. The rest, apparently, goes into the state's general fund. 

Saudi Aramco IPO May Slip Beyond 2019 -- June 21, 2018

I wonder if readers remember this post: Saudi Aramco IPO delayed until 2019. That was posted a little over a year ago, back in March, 2018. Now, not to anyone's surprise, it is being reported that the IPO "may slip beyond 2019." All I know is that the kingdom "needs" $100-oil to make the IPO work. At least that was said some time ago. OPEC "basket" is now trading under $73.

I track the IPO milestones here

Nothing To Do With The Bakken
For The Archives
Posted For A Number Of Reasons
Link here for the complete article and I think it's a free link. 

From the current edition of The London Review of Books.

On the morning of February 18, 2011, Jack Adcock, a six-year-old boy, was brought into Leicester Royal Infirmary with diarrhea and vomiting.

He died eleven hours later.

The pediatric physician looking after him was convicted in November, 2015, of manslaughter by gross negligence, and in January, 2018, she was struck off the medical register (disbarred, as it were from ever practicing medicine again, in England).

Jack Adcock, the six-year-old, had Down’s syndrome and had previously undergone surger to repair a congenital heart condition.

When he arrived at the infirmary, after twelve hours of diarrhea and vomiting, he was described as being unresponsive. Initial blood test showed high levels of lactate and acid in his blood, which can be the result of shock, a secondary condition in cases of sepsis or dehydration.

The pediatrician (in training, by the way) attributed [the abnormal blood results] to dehydration caused by gastroenteritis and treated Jack with IV fluids. His bloods (sic) improved (although not back to normal values), he woke up, and he was observed drinking and playing.

While waiting for the results of further blood tests and a chest x-ray, the pediatrician (in training, by the way) went to see the many other patients she was responsible for that day, including a baby who needed a lumbar puncture for possible meningitis.

The pediatrician, who was in her sixth year of specialist training, was doing the work of two doctors, covering the children’s assessment unit (CAU) and referrals from [the emergency room] and [and other outside physicians] while the other pediatrician (also in training) was away on a training day (no cover had been provided).

The on-call consultant for the CAU was not in the hospital until the afternoon. The rest of the team consisted of two far more junior physicians who were beginning their pediatric rotations — one of them spent the whole afternoon on the phone to the laboratory getting blood results because the IT system was down.

The results of the blood tests that the pediatrician requested when Jack first arrived did not come back for six hours because of the IT issues. The pediatrician did not see the chest x-ray until three hours after it had been done. It showed pneumonia and she prescribed antibiotics.

It was a further hour before the antibiotics were administered by the agency nurse who wasn’t trained in pediatrics.

She, too, has been convicted of manslaughter for not adequately monitoring Jack or alerting the pediatrician to his deterioration [in fact, he had improved; he was seen drinking and playing].

The prosecution argues that the pediatrician had not reviewed the chest x-ray and blood results quickly enough, and that she should have started the antibiotics earlier and should have “escalated” her concerns to the on-call consultant, Dr Stephen O’Riordan, who was informed of Jack’s case and results at the usual 4:30 p.m. handover but didn’t review him (he has suffered no repercussions). O’Riordan has stated that he wasn’t asked to review Jack, but it would be reasonable to assume that a doctor of his seniority and experience would have made his own assessment of the seriousness of Jack’s condition (a child who had apparently recovered nicely with IV fluids, and was now drinking and playing; I doubt any senior consultant would have been “interested” in reviewing the case or the patient at that point): a consultant will often review a worrying case without being expressly asked to do so, and the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health recommends a consultant review of every patient within twelve hours of admission.

On the day of Jack’s death, the CAU was so busy that the pediatrician worked her 13-hour shift without a break.

It is worth nothing that she had only just come back after maternity leave, she was working in a hospital that was new to her, and she had received no induction from the [National Health Service].

At 7:45 p.m. Jack’s heart stopped and a crash call was put out alerting the medical team, including the pediatrician (who must have been in her 12th hour of work without a break).

Forty-five minutes earlier Jack had been given his regular medication, enalapril, a drug used to treat high blood pressure by his month.

The pediatrician had specifically not prescribed the enalapril as it can precipitate cardiac arrest in a patient who already has low blood pressure due to shock (at her trail she was criticized for not making it clear to the mother not to administer it).

Resuscitation was started, but briefly stooped because the physician in charge (the pediatrician who was in her 12th hour of a 13-hour shift; just off maternity leave; in a new hospital) thought a “do not resuscitate” order was in place. The inquest (surprisingly) ruled that this interruption did not contribute to Jack’s death as his condition was by then too far advanced. (Surprising, not because the inquest was correct in this matter, but the prosecutor could have easily gotten a bigger damage award had he pressed this issue; I guess the prosecutor felt that destroying the pediatrician’s livelihood and career was enough).

Jack was declared dead at 9:20 p.m.

Then, much more soul-searching continues.

At the end of the day, the pediatrician was found guilty of gross negligence manslaughter. She received a suspended sentence of two years’ imprisonment and was order to pay 25,000 English pounds to the prosecution. In 2017, the Medical Practitioners Tribunal Service imposed a 12-month suspension from the medical registrar (effectively disbarring her from practicing medicine in the UK, concluding that the pediatrician did not pose a continued risk to patients. This was challenged by the General Medical Council in the High Court — an unprecedented move —  and the judge agreed to her permanent erasure from the medical register [from the National Health Service].

Random Updates Of Some "Old" Wells -- June 21, 2018

This well has been off-line for three months; they are finishing up some fracking in the area; expect to see this well back on-line in the next month or so:
We often forget about the Lodgepole in North Dakota. This is a nice Lodgepole well -- note the jump in production, recently:
  • 18496, 474, Armstrong, Gruman 180-3, Patterson Lake, Lodgepole Pool, t3/10; cum 810K 4/18;
  • Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another well that has just come back on line after being off line for almost a year. Note the production jump and note that it is another Marathon well:
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
Off line: one of several BR Mesa Verde wells that have been off line for the past several months; I don't see any activity in the area to explain why these Mesa Verde wells are off line:
  • 18442, IA/2,348, BR, Mesa Verde 24-22H, Clear Creek, t3/10; cum 376K 10/17;
This well has just come off line; I don't see activity in the area to suggest any reason:
  • 18628, 5,035, Statoil/BEXP, Jack Cvancara 19-18 #1H, Ross project area, first month - 41K bbls; Alger, t5/10; cum 461K 4/18;
This well has also just come off line; some fracking activity in the general area might explain it.
  • 18331, 1,575, QEP/Questar, Fed 1-34-35H-152-92, Van Hook; t5/10; cum 375K 4/18;

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+21 -- June 21, 2018

From The WSJ -- a screenshot:

Another Win For Trump

Near the end of this story:
The Trump administration had urged the Supreme Court to side with South Dakota. And the Supreme Court. Supported Trump. Again.
It's a huge banner over at Drudge -- that this deals a blow to the "Amazon Empire." I think most folks ordering from Amazon have long gotten over the issue of paying taxes. After all, Amazon subscribers are overwhelmingly willing to pay $119/year for "free" shipping. LOL. And if they don't want to pay the $119, they still get free shipping -- it just takes a few days longer for the product to ship.

I don't think there are any losers in this case. Amazon shoppers won't mind (they saw this coming years ago); local retailers are happy; and, the states are really, really happy.

This would be a great time for states to increase their state sales tax but find a mechanism in which to reward shoppers who shop local.  Sort of like the "airport fee" that businesswomen and businessmen are charged for renting a car at the airport. And the exorbitant hotel/motel tax that states and cities charge out-of-towners.

Last Pipeline Standing -- Final Nail In The Coffin For The Keystone XL? -- June 21, 2018

From Bloomberg via Rigzone:
TransCanada Corp.’s Keystone XL may be one pipeline too many for Canada, at least for now.
Construction of the export line would supply Western Canada with more pipeline capacity than needed through 2030, assuming it were operating in the next decade along with the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion and Enbridge Inc.’s Line 3, according to research released by the Canadian Energy Research Institute on Tuesday.
The three lines would raise the country’s crude export capacity to about 5.5 million barrels a day from just under 4 million barrels a day last year.
Alberta’s growing crude oil production, mostly from the oil sands, won’t exceed the capacity of existing and three planned expanded oil pipelines for another twelve years.
Canadian heavy crude prices have traded at an average discount to West Texas Intermediate future of almost $22 a barrel this year, about 70 percent bigger than the average discount last year, after existing pipelines filled to capacity amid a surge of new production from Suncor Energy Inc.’s Fort Hills oil sands mine. The discount widened 50 cents to $24 a barrel on Wednesday.
The $8 billion Keystone XL, approved by U.S. President Donald Trump last year, would carry 830,000 barrels of crude from Alberta to Nebraska. While TransCanada hasn’t made a final investment decision on the pipeline, the company has said it has “approximately 500,000 barrels per day of firm, 20-year commitments." A total of 12 percent of the pipeline would be reserved for uncommitted volumes, according to the National Energy Board. The company will begin clearing brush in Montana this fall, according to a U.S. State Department letter addressed to the Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes obtained by Bloomberg News.
"Alberta's production wouldn't exceed the capacity of the existing and three planned pipelines for another twelve years."

Twelve years will go by very, very quickly, and there's no reason to believe any of the three "planned pipelines" will be completed any time soon, if ever.

Twelve years will go by very quickly. From wiki: After more than six years of review, President Barack Obama announced on November 6, 2015, his administration's rejection of the fourth phase.

So, some time before 2009, TransCanada proposed Keystone XL and one has to assume a couple of years went into planning before the project ended up on President Obama's desk, taking us back to at least 2006. Let me check the calendar. Yup, it's 2018 --  twelve years. Right now, according to most optimistic reports, TransCanada suggests they could start building in 2019 -- thirteen years from 2006. Hope springs eternal.

It's taking longer to put a pipeline in than to build a nuclear reactor.

Canadian Dollar Breaks "75-Cents" -- June 21, 2018 -- Longest Day Of The Year; Canadian Oil Selling At A $24/Bbl Discount

Canadian dollar goes below "75 cents." This morning -- US$0.7496.

Oh-oh: From this post --
Canadian heavy crude prices have traded at an average discount to West Texas Intermediate future of almost $22 a barrel this year, about 70 percent bigger than the average discount last year, after existing pipelines filled to capacity amid a surge of new production from Suncor Energy Inc.’s Fort Hills oil sands mine.
The discount widened 50 cents to $24 a barrel on Wednesday.
Back-of-the-envelope: Canada exports in excess of 4 million bbls of oil to the US every day. 4 million bbls/day x $24/bbl = in round numbers, $100 million each day is what Canada is losing -- just on exports to America because they can't get the pipelines built. $100 million / day = $3,000 million / month?

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs62592777189

RBN Energy: a drill down report on emerging natural gas transportation bottlenecks in Louisiana.