Coal -- December 15, 2023

Locator: 46314COAL.
Locator: 46314INSANITY.  

Before we get to today's news, from the past, August 6, 2023, just a few months ago:

Now, back to today's news.

The "final statement" published by COP28, I assume, will be a fairly thick document, with lots of attachments and appendices.

I hope this is one off the appendices:

Global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4% this year and surpass a record-high level of 8.5 billion tons for the first time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. 

While coal demand in the United States and the EU is set for a 20% record decline this year, coal use in emerging economies “remains very strong, increasing by 8% in India and by 5% in China in 2023 due to rising demand for electricity and weak hydropower output,” the IEA said in its Coal 2023 annual report today.  

The US and the EU are not the problems here. Now that wind and solar energy is / are now the answer to all our global energy problems, the question is why India and China continue to add coal to their energy mix, rather than cutting coal use to the same extent that the US and the EU have.

Had India, China, and the rest of the emerging markets cut their coal demand by 20%, we would not have even needed COP28. 

By the way, "global coal demand is set to rise by 1.4%." Are you kidding me? A gazillion tons of coal use worldwide in a dozen emerging nations and the IEA bureaucrats can forecast coal use to this preciseness. LOL. The EIA can't even accurately account for oil supplies in the US from week to week. Yes, this is a fact. Doesn't even need fact checking but I will provide a link later.

Meanwhile, it appears New England will pivot from natural gas (clean) to coal and heating oil and crude oil and diesel (dirty) if it really gets cold this year and next. 

All I can think of is Albert Einstein's definition of insanity.

Deserves A Stand-Alone Post -- May 20, 2023

Locator: 44785COAL. 

This article interested me. Not. At. All. 

Anyone "surprised" by this story is a nominee for the annual Geico Rock Award.

Dog-bites-man story.

But one data point jumped out at me. Truly amazing.

I don't care about the data point from an emissions point of view.

I don't care about the data point from a political point of view.

I don't care about the data point from an investment point of view.

I only "care about" the data point as a data point that reflects the energy demand of China and what that means going forward.

And then we have India.

 The data point -- okay, there were three data points, I guess, that caught my attention:

China Coal -- July 22, 2022

In hindsight, has any one person, other than Cathie Wood, been so incredibly wrong as Greta Thunberg? Okay, John Kerry.

Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/07/21/china-approves-458-million-coal-project-power-crisis/. 

And, apparently, coal traders are making money, hand over fist, as they say.

Coal Is King -- July 21, 2022

This is really quite amazing. 

I have a reader who has been predicting this ever since I started blogging: that eventually coal would "come back" despite the "green movement." 

I never knew the reader's timeline but I think we both thought in terms twenty years or so (remember: the blog is over twelve years old; fourteen years old if one goes back to the first post in 2007 -- I deleted the blog from 2007 to 2009 in a moment of insanity -- I changed the direction of the blog in 2009 and felt everything before was unnecessary). 

A digression, I apologize. I was saying.

I never knew the reader's timeline but I think we both thought in terms twenty years or so before coal made a comeback. I know I never, in a million years, expected coal to surge this soon. I was thinking maybe 2040 or thereabouts.

There are multiple reasons but I don't have time for that now.

But here's the headline, from John Kemp's column over at Reuters: global 2021 coal-fired electricity generation surges to record high. Link here. 

Global coal-fired electricity generators are producing more power than ever before in response to booming electricity demand and the surging price of gas.

The world’s coal-fired generators produced a record 10,244 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2021 surpassing the previous record of 10,098 TWh set in 2018.

Coal-fuelled generation is on course to set an even higher record in 2022 as generators in Europe and Asia minimise the use of expensive gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and U.S. and EU sanctions imposed in response.

By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have been replaced by newer and more efficient ones needing less fuel per kilowatt.

Global coal mine production was 8,173 million tonnes in 2021 compared with 8,180-8,256 million a year between 2012 and 2014.

But mine production is also likely to set a new record this year as the surging demand for coal-fuelled generation overtakes efficiency improvements.

So much more at the linked article. 

Favorite tag: Obama kills US coal industry. 

I do not believe Greta Thunberg contributed to this article.

Tesla Update -- Significant Price Increases Across The Board -- June 16, 2022

TSLA: at open, down 4%; breaks below $670; trading at $669.01. Holy carbon, Batman! TSLA plummets. Down $46, could break below $655. I assume Cathie Wood is buying more. RIVN? Down 8%. But look at this: ELMS UP 200%. Later: TSLA now down over 9%, broke below $635 but according to a reader, Tesla is best in class. What does this mean for all the rest? Near the market close: down almost 10%. Trading at $633.

Coal: I'm still amazed, after all these years, folks still do not realize that EVs run on coal. 

Coal? Probably not, but one never knows. Probably not in my lifetime but certainly my grandchildren could see the Brits going back to coal. Back to the future. Back to Britain. Link here. Great Britain is "back-pedaling" on its climate pledges. 

Coal: link here. 

SecEnergy: time to buy an EV.

• "if you can't afford to buy gas, buy an EV" — US SecEnergy who is quickly going down as the US' worst SecEnergy ever
• "let them eat cake" -- some French queen

Tesla: link here.

• Tesla Model 3:
• from $54,490 to $57,990
• a $2,500 price increase
• Tesla Model Y:
• Tesla's most popular model
• a bigger price increase with both versions
• Model Y Long Range: from $62,990 to $65,990
• a $3,000 increase
• Model Y Performance: from $67,990 to $69,990
• a $2,000 increase
• Tesla also now sells a Model Y Standard Range, the new version build in Texas, but Tesla has yet to let people buy it through its online configurator and only offers it to local Model Y buyers in Texas on an invitation basis for now
• Tesla Model S
• this new price increase comes after a $5,000 price increase just a few months ago:
• from $99,990 t0 $104,990
• a $5,000 price increase today
• a $10,000 price increase over past few months
• no one is buying this car for global warming reasons or to save money on gasoline
• Plaid: remains at $135,990.
• Tesla Model X
• like the Model S, a significant price increase a few months ago, and now again
• from $114,990 to $120,990
• a whopping $6,000 price increase on top of previous price increase
• Plaid: remains the same at $138,990

See linked article for writer's thoughts on these price increases.

China -- The Coming Energy Debacle -- March 7, 2022

The most entertaining game this autumn, prior to the mid-terms, will be watching everyone blame everyone else for the energy and agriculture debacle headed our way.

This is from Charles Kennedy, perhaps the "best" contributor over at oilprice.com, bar none.

"China scrambles to ensure energy security as commodities soar."

Hey, before I forget, you may want to take another look at this post before further reading. Just saying. UNP is going to be hauling a lot of coal this year. 

Now, back to Charles Kennedy.

According to the Chinese official, "The sources of China's crude oil and natural gas imports have been diversified, and long-term contracts account for a high proportion. As long as all parties comply with the contracts, imports can remain generally stable," South China Morning Post reported.

The planning body NDRC said over the weekend that the country would raise coal production and reserves, develop "major petroleum reserve projects," and increase petroleum reserves, too, per Reuters.

Last month, China said it would help run its coal-fired power plants at full capacity in a bid to ensure energy security, despite the climate goals of the world's largest polluter. 

The Chinese authorities will increase coal supply, and coal-fired power plants will be supported in running at full capacity and generating more electricity to meet the electricity needs for production and residential consumption, state news agency Xinhua reported in mid-February, citing a decision made at the State Council's Executive Meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang.

This weekend, NDRC's Lian said that the Chinese government would not ration power and natural gas usage unless in extreme situations. China suffered a power crisis in the autumn of 2021, which resulted in blackouts in September and October and slowed the growth of China's economy in the third quarter of 2021.

Giving credit where credit is due.

Several years ago I was getting a note from one reader every few days telling me that someday coal was going to be incredibly important. I suppose this was about the time that Hillary Clinton said she was going to put every coal miner out of a job. 

Both the reader and I assumed the day King Coal would rise again would be "later," rather than sooner. I certainly did not have this on my 2022 bingo card. Maybe the reader did.

Coal Miner's Daughter, Loretta Lynn, Women of Country

Coal: The New Fuel! Coal Is Dead. Long Live Coal -- December 17, 2021

Greta: crickets.

IEA: coal prices are at an all-time high. Strong demand and limited supply. Link here. The IEA prematurely called the 2013 - 2014global coal demand the peak, predicting a drop after that. 

New record: coal-fired electricity generation will hit a record this year (2021). It will set a fresh record high in 2022. Link here.

Fresh record? Global coal use will reach a record high in 2022 -- IEA.

For The Archives -- Global Warming -- Coal: The New Transitional Fuel -- John Kerry -- November 14, 2021

The UN Climate Conference, 2021, COP26: the takeaway -- China and India opened the door -- coal is back on the table as a transitional fuel.

• this was actually a step back from the Paris Protocol or whatever the last major summit was called. two 30-second elevator observations:
• this was a complete failure -- because it did not advance the Paris Protocol. Regardless of what the UN might say, it was China and India that carried the day -- and they carried the day with commitment to continue using coal, like "forever."
• there was much more emphasis on the CEOs of Fortune 500 companies being there. They understand the importance of virtue signaling. Every corporate presentation now includes an "ESG slide" and "COP26" needs to be on that slide.
• from now on, every country will go its own way, with reality leading the way;
  
• it raises questions on the future of such conferences. These events are becoming bigger than the Summer Olympics and generating a whole lot less in excitement. How do you spell "ho-hum"?

That first line, "... or whatever the last major summit was called." Quick review, courtesy of wiki.

• COP: conference of the parties
• Framework Convention, 1992
• Berlin, 1995: first UN Climate Change Conference
• Kyoto Protocol, 1997: to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries (China, India, given a pass)
• Kyoto Protocol conferences: annually beginning in 2005
• Durban Amendment, 2011: supposed to result in a binding treaty; to be defined by 2015; become effective in 2020
• Prelude to Paris Agreement: annually from 2011 to 2015
• Paris Agreement, 2015: Kyoto Protocol "passed"; international treaty; legally binding (LOL)
• COP 26: first UN Climate Conference to actually be advertised as a "COPXX" just like "SuperBowl XX." Twenty-sixth COP, but the third meeting of the parties of the Paris Agreement ; US formally (and legally withdrew on November 4, 2020; President Biden "signs the instrument to bring the US back into the Paris Agreement; treaties require 2/3rd majority of US Senate; vote has not taken place
  
• COP 27: to be held in Egypt, 2022
• COP 28: to be held in UAE

It appears COP26 will be seen as the high tide.

Items for further discussion:

• we have only ten years to act -- 1994, and every year after that
• Greta has moved on: it appears Greta has moved on to global issue du jour
• this year: Covid vaccine equity
• next year: "Taylor Swift licensing" protocols
• coming: a Tesla in every garage
  
• China and India: set unobtainable goals for 2060
• 2.5°C vs 1.5°C
• new sheriff in town: President Xi
• zero dollars for all those sinking islands
• it was all about sinking islands; why did that meme "go away"?
  
• quick: name the Pacific island that is the poster child for global warming: Kiribati. The atoll has actually gained more land above sea level since the Kyoto Protocol

Finally, note:

• these UN conferences are still numbered by COP -- so this was COP26. The longer this goes on, the less urgency is obvious. COP28 is still planned for UAE in 2023
• in an attempt to return to some sense of urgency, the conferences will eventually morph into PPA (parties of the Paris Agreement); COP26 was held in conjunction with PPA3
• PPA5 will likely be the "lead-off" meeting. It is still unknown when / if PPAs will become annual events. Tea leaves: PPA4 in 2025 and every every five years after that, although if the billionaires want to party sooner, we could see these events on an annual basis starting next year;

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Doofus

John Kerry.

Touts "good" climate deal ... after China, India announce they won't be giving up coal any time soon. 

I just can't imagine spending the best (and last) years of one's life doing something so meaningless. Speaking of which, where is his yacht moored this year, Connecticut or Rhode Island?

Coal

Background

Electricity mix: ourworldindata.org.

 Updates (infrequent)

September, 2021: coal stocks at key global hubs fall by half in 1H21. Link at ArgusMedia. The numbers are daunting:

• expressed as the number of days of local consumption or throughput: 40 days in June
• is a 47% reduction y/y and last year was the year of the plague
• this number now nears the bottom of the 2017 - 2019 range
• the data reflects a tighter supply-demand balance in 2021 which has been a key factor in driving seaborne prices higher
• remains a risk ahead of the northern hemisphere heating session
• supply decline driven by two factors:
• inclement weather early in 2021, reduced railing and discharging capacity; mining disruption from safety checks, strikes, and protests
• the compounding impact from rising coal burn in some markets, particularly China and India, driven by firm power demand, and gas-to-coal switching in the Atlantic because of surging gas prices
• much more at the link but despite decline in China, the article mentions nothing about the spat between China and Australia

 

Can You Say Louisiana? Chesapeake And Vine Is Not A Hollywood Intersection -- August 12, 2021

Updates

August 13, 2021: US gas acquisitions signal Gulf coast strategy shift. Link here.

Chesapeake Energy's $2.2bn bid for Vine Energy is the latest bet by large US natural gas producers on the future of the US Gulf coast market, signaling a shift away from the pipeline-constrained northeast. 

Chesapeake's planned acquisition of Vine will nearly triple the company's output from the Haynesville shale, a prolific gas-bearing formation underlying east Texas and northern Louisiana. The combined company will have 1.6 Bcf/d (45mn m³) of Haynesville production, all of which may eventually find a home on the nearby Gulf coast, Chesapeake said this week. Those supplies can feed industrial demand and US LNG export terminals. 

The deal, which should close in the fourth quarter of this year, follows Southwestern Energy's $2.7bn bid for privately held Haynesville producer Indigo Natural Resources. Southwestern, an Appalachian producer, would gain a foothold in the Haynesville, diversifying its assets and increasing its access to Gulf coast markets. That deal was expected to close later this month. 

Those transactions underscore a renewed interest in the Haynesville as Nymex prompt-month gas prices rebounded from last year's lows and exports of US LNG surged. It also highlights the long-running frustration with regulators in the northeastern US — home to the Marcellus shale, the largest US gas field by volume.

 Much more at the link.

Original Post 

Chesapeake doubles down on US shale gas with Vine Energy buy. Link here to Reuters.

Chesapeake Energy Corp agreed to buy Louisiana natural gas rival Vine Energy Inc  for $615 million, betting on the shale field's proximity to the U.S. Gulf Coast export hub.

Dealmaking in the oil and gas sector has jumped this year as prices rebounded due to the vaccine-driven economic recovery. U.S. oil futures were up about 1.44% on Wednesday at $69.27 a barrel, an increase of about 63% from year-ago levels.

Shale operators have been pitching scale as a way to cut costs, with top gas producer EQT Corp recently agreeing to buy Appalachian rival Alta Resources for $2.93 billion and Southwestern Energy Co purchasing privately held Indigo Natural Resources for about $2.7 billion.

Chesapeake has offered 0.2486 share and $1.20 in cash for each stock of Vine, implying a per-share value of $15. That represents a less than 1% premium to Vine's last close of $14.88.

This is absolutely fascinating. This just doesn't quit. I didn't know anything about Louisiana until the Continental Resources story surfaced. 

Absolutely amazing. 

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Coal

Coal prices soar as Europe grapples with supply squeeze. Link here.

Notes From All Over -- Saturday Night Edition Continued -- July 3, 2021

SpaceX: say what you want about Elon Musk, there's not many folks who could do this -- SpaceX launches 88 satellites into orbit and nails the rocket landing. Link here. Is it just me, but do these satellites simply seem like "drones" in space?

Coal is dead! Long live coal! Link to Charles Kennedy: more than two billion tons of coal mining capacity is about to come online. 

Who owns the Fourth of July? Op-ed in The WSJ. 

Let it also not pass unnoticed that while much of the country stayed home as ordered, workers in hospitals, supermarkets, drugstores, factories, distribution centers and other places awoke each day, went to their jobs and kept the country afloat, oblivious to the political obsessions of their at-home fellow citizens.

Another notable source of stability, largely missed by a media focused on Covid and racism, was that for much of the pandemic’s year, most of the nation’s religious, private and many charter schools heroically stayed open while public-school unions refused to let their members teach.

[Unless I missed it, the writer of this op-ed failed to mention military personnel.]

Hulu and the Amazon TV Fire Stick: can't say enough positive things about the experience. Auto racing, NBA basketball, The Third Man on TCM and that's just the start. Ice Age, also. It simply does not quit. Orson Welles in The Third Man --- holy mackerel -- Kelsey Grammer channels Orson Welles in The Third Man. The music is incredible. Black and white. LOL.

Duolingo: Sophia and I have 286 consecutive days -- have not missed one day since starting -- of a Duolingo Spanish lesson. Slowly but surely. 

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On The Water

Flathead Lake, June, 2021.

EVs Need Cheap Electricity, And Cheap Electricity Means Coal -- VW -- June 15, 2021

This tells me all I need to know about EVs, the need for cheap electricity, the need for coal ....

Atmospheric CO2; Chinese Coal; And All That Soot -- February 10, 2021

January, 2021:

January, 2020:

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Could This Be The Problem?

China? From a reader:

The engineering marvel that is the recently opened Haoji rail line is, mysteriously, not getting much public attention. 

At near $30 billion cost, this >1,000 mile long railway carries about 200 million tonnes per year of coal to Chinese power plants. 

That is sufficient to fuel 60 massive 1,000 Megawatt coal plants.

Each. Year.

Several of these Inner Mongolian coal mines are amongst the biggest open pit mines in the world.

From wiki:

[The 1,127-mile railway] was built to facilitate coal transport from Inner Mongolia and Shanxi to China's southern provinces at up to 200 million tons a year. 

The railway is also the first north-south railway in China that is dedicated to coal, and is built to bypass existing coal transport routes that go via coastal cities by ship. 

The line will reduce transit time from 20 days by sea to just 3 days. 

The line connects to existing railways at several points to share maintenance facilities. The design speed of the railway is 75 mph. 

The line was approved in 2014 at a cost of US$27.2 billion, financed by China Railway and several large domestic coal mining companies. The railway was inaugurated on 28 September 2019.

Coal -- For The Archives -- January 19, 2021

For the archives. I've pretty much lost interest in this story. As one individual wrote: "This train left the station 35 years ago." Those thinking that China and India (and many other countries) will give up coal aren't watching the same movie as the rest of us.

Link here.

More On Coal -- July 11, 2019

In an earlier post on coal, I suggested "the numbers don't add up."

It looks like, with today's news (the news coming out of Germany), there is more data / more information / more data points to suggest that "the numbers don't add up" is accurate.

I'm currently involved with family commitments but when I have time I will come back to this.

The four links that will be discussed:

• global electricity generation by fuel source;
• my original note the other day;
• the global warming site re: coal; and,
• today's story coming out of Germany

Notes From All Over -- Part 7, July 11, 2019

I've talked about this before. This is why I can't take "global warming" seriously. If the world was really going to end in twelve years (or more accurately, if "we don't do something within the next twelve years ...") "we" would have put a stop to this (building more coal plants) a long time ago. It's not as if there are no alternatives to coal.

But here it is. The world has less than twelve years to act (Beto says ten), and "since 2000, the world has doubled its coal-fired capacity to around 2,000 gigawatts (GW) after explosive growth in China and India." [Perhaps China and India did not get the memo.]

But get this: a further 236GW is being built and 336GW is planned.

Algore alerted the global movers and shakers back in 1994 about CO2 and global warming. After he invented the internet. Since then, it appears, we've added more coal-energy than ever. It's hard to take global warming talk seriously when I see that.

Read more at carbonbrief.org (https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-coal-power-plants) -- it's interactive.

Yes, that site is a "global warming" site and it is noted that use of coal is declining, and will continue to decline. However.

Due to a wave of retirements across the EU and the US in the past few years, 227GW of coal energy has been shut down. Electricity generated from coal has plateaued ("Pat, I would like to buy a vowel") since 2014. But still, with only twelve years to go (Beto, ten years), it seems "we" should have been acting more quickly. Whatever.

[By the way, if you really read the numbers and the timelines closely, things don't add up.]

The good news: these folks at carbonbrief.org say we have "a few decades": "All unabated coal must close within a few decades if warming is to be limited to less than 2C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Even better news: the folks at carbonbrief.org have not been watching the solar minimum science that NASA has been reporting recently.

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Speaking of Coal

I'm roasting my third beer-can chicken of the season right now. Wow, what a great aroma.

I use charcoal. I used to be really, really conscious of getting my hands dirty. Not any more. About a year ago I decided to really "play" in the coal. Get my hands really, really dirty. Enjoy the visceral feel of old briquets. 

It was a lifestyle choice.

And then this. Earlier I wrote that I just bought a new book: Finding Fire. There are incredibly great pictures of really, black, coal-covered hands, holding charred wood, cold embers, old briquets. Earthy. Wonderful.

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Writing to 100

For The Archives: Random DOE Update On Global Coal, Wind

Updates

April 20, 2014: is reporting -- Yahoo!News is reporting -- 

The provincial government has spent $5 million to put in place the infrastructure as it seeks to transform the desolate area into one of the world's largest solar power parks, capable one day of generating up to 1,000 megawatts of electricity.

The desert park in Bahawalpur district is the latest scheme to tackle the rolling blackouts which have inflicted misery on people and strangled economic growth.

Temperatures can reach 50 degrees Celsius (120 Fahrenheit) in the country's centre in June and July, sending demand for electricity soaring and leaving a shortfall of around 4,000 MW.

"In phase one, a pilot project producing 100 MW of electricity will hopefully be completed by the end of this year," Imran Sikandar Baluch, head of the Bahawalpur district administration, told AFP.

"After completion of the first 100 MW project, the government will invite investors to invest here for the 1,000 megawatts."

One has to read quite a ways into the article to find out the rest of the story:

Work has also begun on a pilot 660 megawatt coal-fired plant in Gadani, a small town on the Arabian Sea. Another 600 megawatt coal plant has also been given the go-ahead in the southern city of Jamshoro.

But while coal may offer a short-term fix to the energy crisis, authorities are keen to move to cleaner electricity in the long run.

Short-term fix? I doubt anyone is building a coal-fired plant for less than 20 years of use. Who are they trying to kid? Politically correct thing to say, though.

Original Post

Tracking the new coal-fired power plants: excellent PDF from National Energy Technology Laboratory. A big "thank you" to Don for sending me the PDF.

Dated January 13, 2012; data updated January 13, 2012). This is from the Office of Strategic Energy Analysis & Planning.

Some data points.

Implementation of capacity significantly less than proposed capacity; for example, in 2008, 64 GW of new coal-fired plants were proposed; that estimate was continually downgraded and by 2012, actual amount of capacity implemented: 16 gigawatts (assuming I am reading slide 5 correctly)

Number of announced closures of coal-powered plants will exceed number of new plants.

History:

• In 2008: about 1.5 GW of new coal-generated electricity was added
• In 2009: about 1.5 GW of new coal-generated electricity was added
• In 2010: almost 7.0 GW of new coal-generated electricity was added
• In 2011: back to 1.5 GW (war on coal; natural gas surge)
• In 2012: almost 5.5 GW of new coal-generated electricity will be added
• After 2018: nothing has been proposed

Slide 10 is most interesting: after a steady decline in coal capacity, 2010 was the largest build since 1985; after that it dropped off significantly.

Slide 16 compares China with the US.

How does the 1.5 to 7 GW of coal-generated electricity compare to China? The build rate in 2013:

• 28 GW operational in China; 0 GW operational build rate in the US
• 20 GW under construction in China; 0 GW under construction in the US

So, assuming I am reading the chart correctly,

• the build rate for coal-fired plants in China for 2013: 48 GW
• the build rate for coal-fired plants in the US for 2013: 0 GW

Slide 23: proposed US new capacity -- wind

• 2012: 55GW
• 2013: 28 GW
• 2014: 15 GW
• 2015: 11 GW
• 2016: 8 GW
• 2017: 2 GW

A lot of story lines in that presentation. Global story: King Coal is not dead. CO2 emissions from coal will continue to decrease in the US, while rising exponentially in China.