Saturday, October 18, 2025

Wow, Wow, Wow -- USC Vs Notre Dame Tonight -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49443NIGHTOFF.

I'll probably watch less than 30 minutes of the game but it's gonna be a good one. I just turned on the television -- with just a minute or so before the end of the first half -- Notre Dame leads 14 - 10 but USC is ready to kick a field game which will make it 14 - 13 at the half.

Me? I'm going back to reading Andrew Hodges' biography of Alan Turing.  

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I get the feeling that the press often thinks that human endeavors and activities are "static." Or that a single individual is working on a specific problem. When one reads Hodges' biography of Alan Turing, one realizes how fast things often move along in the background, unknown to the rest of the world, and that many problems are being worked by many individuals simultaneously who may be completely unaware that others are working the same problems.

We're seeing "that in spades," now, as my dad would say. There are so many smart individuals with so much money available to pursue their research that chatbots are unlikely to proceed in the manner that many think chatbots are going to proceed.  

Most interestingly, it's going to be very difficult for governments to keep up with what's going on. True, also of investors. The press will report setbacks and challenges and some folks will become upset, depressed, irritated. These folks don't realize that really, really smart folks are working these problems.

The rare earths problem? Already I'm seeing reports there are individuals and companies working this problem with solutions in our own backyard. My hunch: the press is making a bigger deal out of this than necessary -- typical of journalists and journalism. I wouldn't be a bit surprised to wake up some morning in the near future when we start seeing articles in The WSJ that the rare earths problem is solved, ot least a lot less concerning than the press is making it out to be. 

Advanced Nvidia chips to China? It's being reported this weekend that Nvidia has gotten out of China completely. I'm not sure what Jensen Huang meant by that but if he is/was being literal, that's amazing. That changes everything. And it changed everything literally overnight. 

A shortage of workers in Texas? That's what is being reported. LOL. Texans will solve that problem quickly and easily. 

Rambling. Not well articulated but ...

... reading books on the Turing Machine and the Manhattan Project suggests that a lot of problems / challenge that the press is concerned about are being solved in the trenches.

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Babbage: 1837. The difference engine by Charles Babbage.

Turing: 1937Computable Numbers, the Turing Machine. 

A hundred years separated them.  

2037: quantum computers powering large data centers?

AI prompt

Alan Turning and John von Neumann. 1930s. Aiken, Stibitz, Eckert and Mauchly. It seems like a lot of things were happening amazingly fast in 1930s and 1940s, and much of it with serendipity, casual conversations among widely separated engineers brought amazing breakthroughs leading from Babbage to Turning to the Harvard-IBM machine to University of Pennsylvania's ENIAC. Is there a book with the quality of Andrew Hodges' writing that discusses how events unfolded from thought experiments (Babbage / Turing) to a physical machine, ENIAC? 

ChatGPT: seven suggestions. See this link. I'm currently reading one of the suggestions, The Innovators. Excellent. Now I know where this book fits.

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Crescent Moon Over Flathead Lake
Photo By Nephew

AMD -- New Price Target -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49442AMD.

I thought I had posted this earlier, but I can't find it.

Posting.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
  • All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • And Oracle. 
  • Longer version here.  

A Refracked Grayson Mill Well -- Moberg Federal In Bear Den -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49441B.

The well:

  • 22198, 857, Grayson Mill, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-3H, Bear Den, t5/12; cum 726K 8/25;  
BAKKEN2-20252364596653643120471175241058
BAKKEN1-20252687438098751383300
BAKKEN12-202431140001429811724103600
BAKKEN11-202430142901425413457106600
BAKKEN10-202431145331507213551100000
BAKKEN9-202430164511583615801105300
BAKKEN8-202431194571929717602102200
BAKKEN7-2024312047621046206212960627825703
BAKKEN6-2024302696326455277343602835305610
BAKKEN5-2024141425714393203221370860917564
BAKKEN4-20240000000
BAKKEN3-20240000000
BAKKEN2-20240000000
BAKKEN1-20240000000
BAKKEN12-20230000000
BAKKEN11-20230000000
BAKKEN10-202343804025019060
BAKKEN9-202330397473136204120410
BAKKEN8-20233141624311321361831305

One Year Out -- A Petro-Hunt Well, Little Knife -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49440B.

The wells:

  • 39218, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 146-97-29A-32-4H, Little Knife, t--;cum 203K 8/25;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20253115243154692476315101150956
BAKKEN7-202531167681646327041168531680944
BAKKEN6-2025301792017945291681819818087111
BAKKEN5-2025311892518931307421916218890272
BAKKEN4-2025302049920479331642081420288526
BAKKEN3-2025312361823602380372268321787896
BAKKEN2-2025282129021326338091988919023866
BAKKEN1-20253124354243493805225895241221773
BAKKEN12-20243123957239763425527355263481007
BAKKEN11-20243020570205592825123034211451889
BAKKEN10-2024224307513610361

Hurricane Season -- 2025 -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49439HURRICANESEASON.

Link here

Top Ten US Semiconductor Companies -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49438CHIPS.

Link here

Apple iPhone 17 Sales Assessment -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49437APPLESALES.

AI prompt:

Apple iPhone Air. Just received regulatory approval to sell in China. Lots of stories at odds with each other. Some say that the iPhone Air is not doing all that well in the US and Europe, but yet the iPhone Air sold out in China in hours. What's our assessment of how the iPhone Air is doing? Or does it really matter, since it's a huge pie with iPhone Air, iPhone 17, Pro, and Pro Max all occupying a quarter of the large pie?

ChatGPT: again, a long reply. Requested a one-page PDF. Here it is:

This is very, very interesting. It leads to another AI prompt: 

This is very, very interesting. In the big scheme of things, the Apple iPhone Air did at least two things for Apple: the Air inserted itself into a new niche among cellphones -- extreme thinness -- a must-have fashion statement -- wards off other competitors beating them to that niche; and, second, the Air was a huge marketing "tool." "Everyone" was talking about the Air even if they didn't end up buying it. Free advertising, as it were (just as the ORANGE iPhone did the same thing). I can think of other reasons for the Air but those two seem to loom large in my rear view mirror.

A long reply, but a nice brief summarizing PDF:

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The Book Page

Wow, what a great day. 

So much blogging accomplished with regard to technology over the past two days, but I was also able to complete the scaffolding of the 2023 book of British history by Joanne Paul who provided the definitive biography of the House of Dudley, important during the reigns of the three step-children of King Henry VIII. 

I assume in the big scheme of things, this is not a very important story but it connects a lot of dots and fills in a lot of empty spaces in this period of time.  

This is the framework / timeline of the period in question:

Three periods:

  • the Wars of the Roses, which culminated in the House of Tudor (first, Henry VII, and then Henry VIII)
    • preceded by the House of Plantagenet; divided into two rival branches
      • the House of Lancaster
      • the House of York 
  • Henry VIII and the transition following Henry VIII's death -- the House of Dudley -- the period of time covered by Joanne Paul in her 2023 biography / history.
    • "Queen" Jane Grey (9 days), 
    • King Edward VI (6 years), 
    • Queen Mary 1 (five years), 
    • Queen Elizabeth 1 (44 years -- the Golden Age of Britain -- 1558 - 1603).
  • the era of Elizabeth 1 -- the Elizabethan / Shakespeare age)  (her namesake Elizabeth II, 70 years, 1952 - 2022)
  • On a completely different note but because Elizabeth II was mentioned, let's remind ourselves of the Indian Raj: 1858 - 1947
    • Queen Victoria: 1858 - 1901
    • Edward VII: 1901 - 1910
    • George V: 1910 - 1936 -- WWI
    • Edward VIII: small part of 1936
    • George VI: 1936 - 1947 -- WWII 

Back to Henry VIII and his three kids:

  • Henry VIII: 1491 - 1547 (55 y/o)
  • Edward VI: 1537 - 1553 (reigned 9 - 15 y/o) (died at 15 years of age, mostly likely tuberculosis)
  • Mary I: 1516 - 1558 (reigned 37 - 42 years old) (death, possibly uterine cancer; died during epidemic of influenza)
  • Elizabeth 1: 1533 - 1603 (69 years of age when she died; reigned for 45 years -- Golden Age
  • James VI / James I: son of Mary, Queen of Scots; a great-great-grandson of Henry VII. Mary Queen of Scots, 1542 - 1587 (44 years of age); reigned 1542 - 1567 

So, pretty much an exact contemporary of her "cousin" Queen Elizabeth I who was alive and reigning to the south at the same time as Mary, Queen of Scots.

Queen Elizabeth I and her cousin Mary, Queen of Scots had a tense, rivalrous, and ultimately fatal relationship. They never met in person, and their conflict was driven by religious differences and a competing claim to the English throne, which ended with Elizabeth ordering Mary's execution 

Queen Elizabeth I's legal justification for executing her cousin, Mary, Queen of Scots, was treason
. Though Mary was a foreign sovereign, she had become subject to English law after seeking refuge in England and was implicated in several plots to assassinate Elizabeth.

Citigroup Raises Big Tech AI Infrastructure CAPEX -- Trending Toward $3 Trillion, Up From $2 Trillion -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49436AI_INVESTING.

Link here. As usual, read to the end of the thread.

 The majority of these LDCs will be sited in Texas, specifically west Texas, in the Permian. Link here.

Another LDC Slated For The Permian -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49435TEXAS.
Locator: 49435NSCALE.

First of all: what is Nscale?

  • Nscale is a London-based company that provides a full-stack AI cloud platform and builds AI-focused data centers. The company is described as a "hyperscaler for AI," meaning it provides massive, scalable, and optimized computing infrastructure specifically for artificial intelligence workloads. Company origin Nscale was incorporated in the UK in 2024 and spun out of the Australian crypto-mining company Arkon Energy. Its origins are rooted in Arkon's expertise with renewable-powered data centers, which Nscale now applies to the power-intensive demands of AI. 
  • Nscale is not currently a public company; it is a private company that has announced plans for an initial public offering (IPO) in late 2026. It is backed by investors, including NVIDIA and Dell, and has a large partnership with Microsoft.

Beth. Link here. Scroll through the entire thread. Again, this is in Texas.

The Texas campus in question is leased from Ionic Digital and is located in Barstow, Texas.

Barstow, Texas, is a small town located in Ward County in West Texas, near the border of New Mexico and the Pecos River. It is situated in the Permian Basin region, an area known for its oil and gas production, which forms a large part of the local economy today. 

T. Boone Pickens would have loved this.


All I can say is this: it's no longer "go west, young, man"; it's "young woman, head to the Permian."

Nscale.

Texas:

  • 104K Nvidia GB300s in a 240MW Texas campus, 3Q26
  • potential to scal to 1.2GW 
  • reminder: price of admission to join the big boys. ante is 1GW, quickly raises to 2GW

Nscale for Microsoft Azure.

  • Portugal:
    • 12.6K Nvidia GB300s in 1Q26 -- within the next six months;
  • UK:
    • 23K Nvidia GB300s in 3Q27

They keep calling the fourth industrial revolution a bubble. 

LDCs In The Permian -- Where Do We Stand: October 18, 2025

Locator: 49434LDC_TEXAS.
Locator: 49434LDC_PERMIAN.

AI prompt:

So far, how may large data centers / hyperscaler data centers do you now count projected for the Permian. I coundt several: Stargate; Nscale, etc.

AI reply:

  • here are several large-data-center / hyperscaler infrastructure projects currently either active or announced in the Permian Basin / West Texas region (including “Permian + adjacent West Texas energy corridor”). 
    • this list is not exhaustive, and many projects are at early “site acquisition” or “land-option” stage, but gives a good sense of the emerging cluster. 
  • my count: four major announced projects. So far, I count at least four major large-scale data center/hyperscaler projects in or adjacent to the Permian Basin / West Texas energy corridor.
  • important caveats
    • these projects vary in stage: some are land-secured & power-teased; others are early JV announcements or power-MOU stage.
    • some are pure data-center infrastructure (TCDC, CoreWeave), others are more enabling infrastructure (FO Permian’s power for data centers) rather than a specific hyperscaler build-out. 
    • additional projects may be unannounced or in stealth; the region is emerging rapidly, so the number may rise quickly. 
  •  “hyperscaler” here means large-scale AI / cloud compute campuses (hundreds of MW to GW), not just small edge datacenters. 
  • this list did not include the Nscale project just announced for Barstow, Texas, also in the Permian  

Next prompt:If you like, I can dig further and pull a broader list of ~10-15 Permian Basin / West Texas data-center projects in development (with MW targets, land parcels, power links) to build a fuller map of the “data-center boom” in that region.

For The Archives -- Ohtani -- After Last Night -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49433OHTANI.

Link here. It's also interesting how Ohtani structured his $700 million contract.

COTD -- Global CO2 Emissions -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49432COTD.

Link here

A simple graph that western countries have trouble interpreting. 



WSJ opinion: link here. UN blinks on global tax on CO2. 

The International Maritime Organization, an arm of the U.N. based in London, had intended this week to approve the new tax on carbon-dioxide emissions from cargo ships for purposes of mitigating climate change. It would have been the first global carbon tax, and the first global tax of any kind paid directly to the U.N. Shippers would have had to pay a fee per metric ton of “excess” carbon-dioxide emissions into an IMO-managed fund, with the money then divvied up to various governments and businesses. The cost inevitably would be passed onto consumers. 

That is, until the U.S. stepped in. The Administration warned last week it would consider imposing sanctions on any government that voted for the tax. Washington worried the plan would cause inflation by driving up shipping costs. The whole project smacked of the taxation without representation that America was founded to resist. President Trump weighed in with his own social-media post on Thursday. 

Amid the U.S. pressure, IMO members on Friday voted to shelve the issue for at least a year. They’d do better to drop it entirely, but at least the delay gives everyone a face-saving off-ramp.

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Vestas Shuts Down Operations In Poland
Europe Losing Interest In Losing Money To Pay For Wind

Link here

How Texans Rank Companies Operating In Their State -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49431TEXAS.

Axios: link here

Full lists: link here.

The 100 companies ranked: link here


 

Chart Of The Day -- Walmart Wages -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49430WALMART.

Link here


Hyperscalers, LDCs -- x -- Overnight -- October 18, 2025

Locator: 49429LDC.

LDCs

  • highly recommend one scroll through x today to see just how amazing the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution is / has been. 

GDP

Nvidia:

  • completely out of China; link here.
  • first MIA Blackwell chips are now coming out of TSMC Arizona 
  • most advanced AI silicon on Earth now being built under US supply chains: link here

TSMC:

Oracle

  • right now, perhaps the most fascinating company 
  • projected: revenue to surge -- link here
  •  OCI: Oracle Cloud Infrasructure; it has its own wiki page; top ten per ChatGPT
  • top eight (8): 
    • AWS: 30% share in 1H25; $30 billion in 2Q25
    • Microsoft Azure: 22% share; $30 billion
    • Google Cloud (GCP): 13% share; $13 billion
    • Alibaba Cloud: 7% share globally
    • Oracle Corporation Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): 3% share; $6 billion 
    • IBM Cloud: 2% global
    • Tencent Cloud: 2% global
    • Salesforce Cloud: 2% share 
  • top four control 70%: AWS, MSFT, GOOG, Alibaba 

Hyperscalers

  • the Big 5 in cloud computing; 
  • the three largest report earnings in two weeks; 
  • nice chart: Oracle, MSFT Azure, Google Cloud, Alibaba Cloud, AWS. Link here

Fracking:

  • a revival!
  • TechCrunch: long article; powering LDCs. Link here.

Investing:

NIMBY - not! Energy, "can-do" attitude, money, Musk, Stargate: TEXAS is the state to watch. 

Screenshots from links above:











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Tickers

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Chatbots and The Drudge Report

Years ago, I would check in with The Drudge Report several times per day. In the past two years, I have not visited The Drudge Report once. Actually, that's not true: about a month ago, I clicked on The Drudge Report one time, just to see if The Drudge Report had changed its format. It had not, as far as I could tell.

AI prompt:

Are Drudge Report page views dropping because of chatbots? 

AI reply: