Thursday, May 23, 2019

Two Texas Cities Make Top Three List -- Greatest Growth -- May 23, 2019

Through one year ending July, 2018, these three cities had the greatest growth (numeric gain) among US cities:
  • Phoenix
  • San Antonio
  • Ft Worth 
The Book Page

From Washington Crossing, David Hackett Ficher, c. 2004.

Among the many different battalions and infantry the Brits landed on Staten Island during the early days of the Revolutionary War, one was a light infantry company.

From page 36:
Every light infantry company wore the badges and facings of its parent regiment, with distinctive short jackets, light equipment, and a small helmet or cap in place of the usual broad-brimmed cocked hat. As emblems of their special role, some companies added jaunty green feathers, which gave the Light Bobs another nickname.
The Green Feathers of 1776 were the ancestors of Green Jackets in the nineteenth century and Green Berets in the twentieth, all highly mobile light troops. British commanders made frequent use of these men, and by 1776 they were already hardened by heavy service in America.
From page 37:
In the early 1770s, William Congreve and James Pattison developed a new generation of mobile brass field guns with light but sturdy carriages and interchangeable parts. Some of these weapons, called "grasshoppers," could be moved on pack horses or carried by eight men. They were designed for mobility on American terrain.
Congreve also ran the Royal Powder Factory and developed munitions in great variety: hollow shells with bursting charges, incendiary "carcasses" for use against buildings, canister and grapeshot against infantry, illuminating rounds and smoke shells. From the experience of the American war, Lieutenant Henry Shrapnel would invent in 1784 an exploding shell that still bears his name.


For the archives. GEOI is no longer an operator in the Bakken.


For the archives. Halcon is no longer an operator in the Bakken. Prior data re: Halcon:

Sempra Energy Begins LNG Production At Cameron Export Facility -- May 23, 2019


May 24, 2019: a reader puts this into perspective -- see first comment --
  • 1.7 Bcf/d is 14 times the volume of the New Orleans Superdome every day...
Original Post

 From twitter today, link here:

The US LNG export terminal list is tracked here. Shortly after posting that list back in 2016 a reader wrote to tell me the obvious: just because "someone" plans on an LNG export terminal it doesn't necessarily mean that it will be built. Whatever. On the other hand, "they" keep plugging along, building these LNG export terminals.

Trump Gets A Big Win -- May 23, 2019

From twitter today: chipmakers Intel, Qualcomm and Broadcom halt supplying Huawei until further notice. Microsoft pulls Huawei from one of its "cloud" catalogs.

From twitter today:
  • Turkey says it no longer imports oil from Iran.
  • India says it quit importing oil from Iran and Venezuela as of May 3, 2019. 
Update On Russian Corrosion

Occasional-Cortez says Vladimir Putin needs to be impeached over allegations of corrosion.

From twitter, May 24, 2019: a bigger mess than most realize --

From twitter today (May 24, 2019): a huge mess --

From twitter today (May 23, 2019):
As much as 5 million tonnes of contaminated Russian oil could have been shipped through pipeline to Europe.

Russia has removed 2 million tonnes of contaminated oil so far, using rail, storage tanks, and ships to store that contaminated oil.

It could be another six months before the system is "back to normal." If so, this takes "them" well into winter.
May 20, 2019: payments to Russia for this oil has been suspended; disruption to this pipeline said to be worse such out in Russia.

May 15, 2019: Russian corrosion much worse than previously reported.

May 2, 2019: Bloomberg calls it a logistical nightmare.

Kodiak Oil & Gas

For the archives. Kodiak is no longer an operator in North Dakota.
  • 4Q14: KOG deal with Whiting closes. Whiting owns KOG. KOG ticker symbol no longer for Kodiak Oil and Gas. 
  • 2Q14: 38,271 boepd; sale of KOG to Whiting, pending; four rigs, but should be back to 7-rig program by end of 2014; transcript;
  • 1Q14: average: 34,000 boepd;
  • 4Q13 average: 36,100 boepd (18,200 boepd 4Q12); 183,000 net acres (173,000 in ND); sold 19,500 producing acres for $68 million (mostly in SW McKenzie County)
  • October 2, 2013, transcript: 195,000 acres; all in North Dakota; 7 rigs; guidance - 30K to 34K bopd production by end of the year
  • June 3, 2013: Buys Liberty Resources: 42,000 net acres; 6K boepd production; 1 rig; $660 million cash; 196,000 net acres after acquisition
  • 1Q13: 21.7K boed (11K boed one year ago); crude oil, 88%. Beginning March, 2013, one full-time, 24-hr completion crew; will add a second crew in May, 2013; 7 operated rigs 9same); all in ND; continues with 12-well-test on a 1280-acre spacing unit in Polar/Smokey operating areas with two rigs operating in each area.
  • Update: July, 2012, corporate presentation: Production: 10,578 boepd (average -- 1Q12)
  • 155,000 net acreage in the Bakken after January, 2012, closing on North Plains Energy, LLC, assets 
  • 7 operated rigs 2Q12, 1-2 non-operated rigs; expect to hold all leases by production by mid-2013; two 24-hour frack spreads (still true as of January 10, 2012, press release)
  • Decline rates based on long lateral EURs of 650 - 850K bbls
  • Exit 2011: 9,000 (est 3Q11) (was 11,000 boepd -- estimate as of October, 2011)
  • Mid-2012: 24,000 (est Nov 11; after North Plains acquisition); exit 2012, 30,000 boepd
  • will add 2nd dedicated frack crew in 2012; one dedicated HAL fracking crew as of 1Q12
  • JV partner with 2 rigs; 50% WI
  • Total Bakken net acres: 93,500 net acres (ND: 85,000 ; MT: 4,500 acres)
  • November, 2011 announcement, acquisition: Divide County, McKenzie County, 50,000 acres
  • Prior to the June 30, 2011, acquisition: Total Bakken net acres: 70,000 net acres (Dunn County: 35K; McKenzie County: 35K)
  • Koala -- McKenzie (Western Trend); 10,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
    • Koala Prospect: southeast of Williston, south of river, Williams Count (10,000 net acres); with current drilling program, all of Koala will BHP by 2012 end
  • Polar - Williams Country (North Flank Trend); 16,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • Polar Prospect: northern and southern Divide; just north of BEXP's Rough Rider;with current drilling program, all of Polar will BHP by 2013 end
  • Grizzly - McKenzie County (SW Bakken - TF Trend); 25,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • June 30, 2011 Acquisition -- East Grizzly Prospect: far southeast end of Elm Coulee on ND side (22,000 net acres); previously about 4,000 net acres in this area, the far southeast end of Elm Coulee on ND side
  • Dunn County (Eastern Trend), FBIR; 34,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • Dunn County Core area: northeast Dunn County, south of river (west of river), FBIR (34,000 net acres); 800 - 900K EURs; $10.5 million;
  • Smokey - McKenzie County, 16,000 net acres; 7 wells/spacing unit
  • Smokey Prospect: McKenzie County, old -- 11,742 net acres; between their acreage on the reservation and the newer Koala Prospect area and just to the west of the southern tip of the Nesson Anticline (16,000 net acres); with current drilling program, all of Smokey will BHP by 2012 end
  • Wildrose:  5 wells/spacing unit
  • Sheridan County, Montana: 4 wells/spacing unit
  • Jan 2012 Acq - Williams and McKenzie; 50,000 net acres
  • (Other Williston Basin: Montana, northwest of Williston, Sheridan County, 4,500 net acres)
  • Corporate presentation, December, 2011:  155,000 net acres
  • Analyst's number, December 31, 2010: 72,000 net acres

Four New Permits; One New Operator In The Bakken; WTI Falls Over 5% -- May 23, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs6465512582

Four new permits:
  • Operator: KODA Resources Operating, LLC (see this post) (2); WPX Energy (2)
  • Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County); South Fork (Dunn County)
  • Comments: KODA has permits for a 2-well Stout pad in section 29-160-102, Fertile Valley
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 33027, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
  • 33026, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
  • 33025, n/d, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H1, Elm Tree, no production data, said to be flowing;
    • neighboring wells
      • to the east, running same direction
        • 18138, nice jump in production;
        • 19503, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the west, running same direction, south to north
        • 19397, remains off line as of 3/19;
      • to the north, running same direction, south to north
        • 20804, remains off line as of 3/19;
        • 24473, back on line for 13 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;
        • 20805, back on line for 11 days; too early to say if any production jump; 3/19;

New Operator In The Bakken: KODA Resources Operating, LLC -- May 23, 2019

KODA Resources: website.

KODA has two permits:
  • 36500, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2917-1BH, Fertile Valley, 
  • 36501, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2932-2TH, Fertile Valley, 
According to LinkedIn:
  • Osman Apaydin: founder, president, and CEO; June, 2018 - present
    • prior: 12 years 6 months with EOG
    • prior: Schlumberger, 1998 - 2005
    • BS, Petroleum Engineering, Istanbul Technical University
    • MSc, Petroleum Engineering, Stanford University
    • PhD, Petroleum Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
  • Jason McLaren, Landman at KODA Resources;

Ready, Set, Go -- And The Market Went -- Down -- May 23, 2019


May 29, 2019: Boeing faces difficult recovery from protracted 737 MAX grounding -- WSJ.

May 25, 2019: that didn't take long. Two days ago I suggested it was going to be a lot longer than Boeing suggested before the 737 Max 8 was back flying. Now this, from The Wall Street Journal, "MAX's return to flight delayed by FAA's re-evaluation of safety procedures for older 737 models. The agency is considering changes in how pilots are trained to respond when the flight-control computer or other systems erroneously pus the plane's nose down."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make an investment, financial, job, travel or relationship decision based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Original Post

With the market plummeting today (after two weeks of really bearish days), the mainstream media will continue to blame the China issue (which they can blame on Trump issue, as if there's only one party involved here).

I don't buy it.

I don't buy the mainstream media suggesting this all about the China trade issue.

The China trade issue has been going on for weeks (months?).

Why did the market plummet today? Certainly not due to the China trade issue -- an issue with no news today.

What happened today that was news? Hold that thought; I'll come back to that.

What happened yesterday that was news? Hold that thought; I'll come back to that.

What happened two days ago that was news? Hold that thought: I'll come back to that.

Some data points:
  • May: "Sell in May and go away."
  • Ticker symbols:
    • AAPL:  caught up in many, many issues; the China issue exacerbates all of Apple's issues.
    • Boeing: unlikely to get the "737 MAX 8" in the air by the end of June; the original date suggested by Boeing. In fact the tea leaves suggest the MAX 8 won't be back in the air before the end of the year.
    • QCOM: judge rules company guilty of monopolistic practices; stock plummets 12% on ruling;
    • TSLA: implodes
    • XLNX: says rollout of 5G to take much longer than expected; affects all telecom; most chips; much of the tech sector; in fact, 5G may be stalled / killed due to health concerns
  • Oil: oil profits down this past quarter; the #1-traded commodity in the world, plummets today, unrelated to the stock market but affecting the market

  • US farming: okay, -- I'll give the mainstream media that one -- the farmers are scared but it was not simply the China trade issue (but that was huge for farmers); but now the huge flooding in the midwest exacerbates the trade issue
So, now, the news that rocked the market:
  • READY -- two days ago: the price of oil continued to drop; that tension in the Mideast was amounting to nothing; API reports huge crude oil inventory -- prepping the market for a drop;
  • SET -- yesterday: EIA confirms API's data -- huge crude oil inventory (pulls oil sector down); Trump walks away from biggest infrastructure bill in history -- not going to happen this year;  rumor has it that the infrastructure bill at $2 trillion was twice what it would have been last year; market now ready to drop;
  • GO -- today: the Fed minutes -- the Fed indicates they won't cut rates; the one last thing the market was "hoping" for; the market drops;
So, with all that, what's a NYC trader to do? "Sell in May and go away." Prepare for vacation; go on vacation. Come back in September.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Hoping this lasts for at least two more cycles. What a great buying opportunity. We don't get them often.


It's hard to live without "flash."

When you upload/download "flash" you also get free of charge:
  • Mac Pro Cleaner
  • NameSync
And they show up automatically in your "dock" which is most irritating.

Recommendation: remove them immediately.

Google this issue and you will find "everyone" has this problem. 

On Apple it's really, really easy to remove these three apps, although it took a few attempts to finally get rid of NameSync which apparently tracks all your passwords.

On Apple:
  • go to Finder
  • search for "applications"
  • click on the "Applications" folder. You might have to find a second "Applications" folder but it's there.
Look for:
  • MacProClearner (or whatever it's called; something like that)
  • NameSync
Drag the icons to the "Trash."

A dialogue box might pop up saying that the app can't be deleted because it's open.
  • Click on the icon on the dock, and then when it shows up in the "toolbar," "CLOSE IT."
  • Now it can be dragged to the "Trash."
For some reason, it took a couple of tries to get rid of NameSync and that's the one that's most concerning. The other two are just irritating.

Now you know why Steve Jobs wanted nothing to do with "flash" on his mobile devices.

Off The Net For Awhile -- We'll End With This

From a reader. As we think about that possible plastics plant in North Dakota, a re-look at this article from a year ago: ethane to ethylene should be a big, big deal going forward

Refinery Temporarily Shut Down
Global Warming Dropping Too Much Rain

From twitter today:

Natural Gas Fill Rate -- May 23, 2019

Link here. (See first comment: reader suggests comparing with other data at this link.)

From a reader's comment earlier in the week:
Injections for each week of 2019 since March 29 was greater than the injection for the same week of 2014, of 2015, of 2016, of 2017, and of 2018, now for seven weeks in a row...that might be some kind of record.
Small print:
  • most recent injection: 100 Bcf
  • stocks were 137 Bcf higher than last year
  • stocks are 274 Bcf below the five-year average

Batteries: Making America Great -- US Energy Storage Capacity Set To Double This Year -- May 23 2019

Link here to PV magazine.
Energy storage is increasingly finding its place in the sun. As a technology, it simply offers too many advantages and meets too many needs to be overlooked: it can ramp faster than a gas plant, it can stabilize voltage and frequency, and it can carry electrons from solar generation to deliver power after dark.
When you add to this the dramatic cost declines for lithium-ion batteries, the combination becomes unstoppable.
Regulators, utilities and state governments are beginning to understand this, and among other policies the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s Order 841 is opening wholesale markets to the participation of energy storage. Add in the tax advantages of coupling energy storage with solar under the Investment Tax Credit (ITC), and you have the perfect storm.
712 MW.

Is that equal to about one coal plant? 

Bottom line: solar and wind farms can no longer be "sold" by developers if they don't include storage. And storage is not inexpensive. In Minnesota it's prohibitively expensive.

And so we move on.

The Gig Economy -- May 23, 2019


June 12, 2019: Amazon out of the food delivery business.

May 25, 2019: well, that did not take long. The "original post" was posted two days ago. Today, from The Wall Street Journal, "Wall Street isn't buying what Silicon Valley is selling." Gig economy start-ups mentioned: Uber, Snap, Dropbox, Cloudera, Pinterest, Lyft, DoorDash, Twilio, Okta, Zoom.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Original Post 

Previously posted, this item from zerohedge:
Link here. At this link, click on the magnifying glass to zoom in. It will be interesting to see how this plays out ten years from now. My hunch is that there may be many more apps in the gig economy ten years from now but most will not make good investments. Many of the apps provide services that Walmart, CVS, Target, Amazon, others already provide. My hunch: Hertz, Avis, Enterprise will get into the ride-hailing business. 
Watching television commercials suggests to me there are a lot of "web-page" start-ups that won't be going anywhere. They are part of the "gig economy." From what I can tell, they simply aggregate data that is freely available, then offer some value-added service, and market it. Most of them seem like get-rich-quick schemes employing five or six executives / Harvard MBA-types and a dozen IT coders. Many probably do what Trivago is accused of doing. Google is accused of the same thing. As are others.
Some will do well; most will simply fade away. There will be consolidation. A dozen "food-delivery" app-companies will "round down" to one or two. A dozen "hotel-finder-app-companies" will round down to one or two. For the investor, the question is finding the needles in the haystacks. 

Example: from The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2019: GM will scale back its Maven car-sharing business. [To see just how tough this business it, I consider myself somewhat well-read, and yet, I do not ever recall hearing about "Maven."] From the linked site:
Maven is the latest example of a traditional car maker facing challenges while movinginto new transportation ventures. Maven plans to terminate its service in eight of 17 North American cities, including Chicago and Boston. It will continue to operate in Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., Detroit,  Toronto, and other [unnamed] cities.
Example: there are countless hotel-booking websites. SmarterTravel lists the ten best such sites. And hidden in that list of ten, one company, Expedia owns two others: Travelocity and Orbitz. Not listed, of course, are loyalty programs which I assume are huge. And my hunch is that the margins are huge for loyalty programs as opposed to the ten listed at SmarterTravel which all cater to those trying to get the best deal. But twelve hotel-booking websites. Really?

This won't help:

Other high profile names.
  • Uber: facing its own difficulties; see WSJ link above; Uber with steep loses and stock has slumped;
  • Chariot: Ford Motor Company's private-shuttle service that was shuttered in January, 2019; Ford had bought the company several years ago in a push to diversify;
  • Cadillac: dabbling in subscription service for cars that let customers pay one monthly fee to swap in and out of models; Cadillac canceled that subscription business last year (2018) but says it will re-launch with adjustments
  • Blue Apron:
    • May 21, 2019: a reverse stock split won't save Blue Apron, Motley Fool;
    • May 20, 2019: Blue Apron latest to suffer in tough market, The Seattle Times;
  • HelloFresh:
    • January 23, 2019: breaking through or breaking down, SeekingAlpha; almost ten years old; tea leaves suggest it will go the route of BlueApron

Bakken Census -- Update -- May 23, 2019

Maine: for what it's worth. The state is looking at nationalizing its power grid. Op-ed here.

Bakken census: from a reader, thank you. At this rate, North Dakota will surpass the population of California in 2325. Link here.

Minot’s population dipped somewhat in the latest estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau today.

The estimate of 47,370 as of July 2018 is down 1% from 47,885 in 2017 and down nearly 4.4% from the peak estimate of 49,531 in 2015. The official 2010 census was 40,888.

Although communities such as Minot and Stanley have seen declines from their oil boom highs, significant growth still is occurring in northwest North Dakota’s oil patch. That growth is concentrated around Williston, which saw an estimate increase of 5.7%, and Watford City, up 8% in 2018.

Watford City’s new estimate of 7,080 is lower than the community believes is its true population. Vawnita Best, community development director, said the community estimates its population around 8,500. Working with the Census Bureau, the city learned its error rate on the 2010 count could have been off as much as 25 percent, which if carried over in the estimates would put the 2018 population at 8,750, she said. That compares with 1,744 residents counted in 2010.

New energy website:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

WTI Slides; Will Test $60; Jobless Claims "Surprise" On The Downside -- America Stays Great -- May 23, 2019


Later, 9:52 a.m CT: here we go -- WTI solidly below $60. Now at $58.45, having dropped 5% so far today, losing about $3.00, currently trading at $58.45

Later, 7:53 a.m. CT: WTI sinks to $60.06.

Original Post

Weekly jobless claims: link here or here.
  • prior: 212,000
  • forecast: 217,000
  • actual: 211,000 
  • 4-week moving average: 220.25K (note the false precision)
CLR: April, 2019, presentation. Interested in the Springer shale.  The latter mentioned in slide 9.

OXY: the only good news -- activist investors seem to be quiet right now, but lots of work to be done to swallow Anadardo.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Oh-oh! the cost keeps going up -- data points:
  • Sasol
  • Lake Charles Chemical Project (LCCP)
  • world-class ethane cracker
  • now estimated to cost as much as $13 billion (rounded)
  • up from original estimate of $12 billion (rounded) just a couple of months ago
  • it may not sound like much, but
    • it is an 8% increase in just a few months; and, 
    • Sasol didn't give any reassurance:  “This increase in the anticipated LCCP capital costs is extremely disappointing"
  • project began in 2014
  • project:
    • 1.5 million tons of ethylene annually
    • six on-site downstream chemical manufacturing plants
Sasol story: the story above has always been of marginal interest to me but with talk of a plastics plant in the Bakken, the story has become much more interesting, much more relevant.

Turkey: stung by Trump's reaction to that country buying Russian anti-defense missiles, Turkey blinked this time: Turkey stopped purchasing Iranian oil as of May (wink, wink); no links; story everywhere;

India: says it ended its oil imports from Iran and Venezuela on May 3 (twitter).

WTI: could continue to fall -- Rigzone; The best model to explain all this at this post. "Everybody" talks about oil going back to $90 but the tea leaves certainly don't suggest that will happen any time soon. When analysts start invoking Venezuela, Libya, and Iran, one knows they are grasping at straws. Canada, Russia, and Saudi Arabia can meet any shortfall.

Brent: off which Saudi bases its price, has dropped below the all-critical $70 threshold.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Tesla; after a  6% drop yesterday, futures suggest another 3% drop today. Now trading below $190. Rare buying opportunity.

Back to the Bakken

New wells reporting -- Thursday, May 23, 2019:
  • 35319, SI/NC, MRO, Sears USA 21-16TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 35300, SI/NC, WPX. Minot Grady 26-35HC, Squaw Creeky, no production data,
  • 31563, SI/NC, Slawson, Submariner Federal 5-23-20TFH, Big Bendy, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs6465512582

RBN Energy: the international factors influencing US propane exports, part 2.
It’s impossible to know for certain what will happen next in the international markets for propane, butane and ethane — there are too many variables and vagaries. What is very doable, though, is to gain a better understanding of the broader market forces at play.
For example, the U.S. now has a few years under its belt as a major propane exporter, so it’s feasible to assess trends in where that propane is going — or no longer going — and to examine how propane exports to various parts of the world are impacted by everything from a high-stakes trade war to governmental efforts to encourage the use of cleaner cooking fuel. Today, we continue our deep-dive into propane, butane and ethane exports with a look at where propane exports from the U.S. East, West and Gulf coasts are heading, and why.