Wednesday, October 2, 2013

KOG Presentation Transcript

At SeekingAlpha.

Also, DNR and WLL transcripts from same conference have been posted

From the KOG transcript:
  • everything in North Dakota; divested all Montana acreage; everything in North Dakota
  • 195,000 net acres
  • seven rigs
  • CAPEX: $1 billion in 2013
  • production guidance: 30 - 34,000 bopd 
  • Dunn County EURs: 850,000 - 1,000,000 (one million bbls)
  • Koala, Smokey, Polar EURs: 650 to 850,000 bbls
  • periphery EURs: 350 to 450,000 bbls (but lower drilling costs)
  • costs, still high, maybe push down to $9 million
  • anticipate a realized price of $95/bbl
  • discusses downspacing
With regard to the Three Forks:
When we looked at the Three Forks, we tried to look at this a little bit different. Again, that 800 feet horizontal separation, we chose to alternate them between the middle and the upper Three Forks. Our interpretation of the Three Forks quite frankly is that, we believe that when we frac the well, and the middle member here that we are seeing communication into the upper member. We look at this as kind of one large tank of oil. I don't believe it really differs from a lot of industry statements. There are some people that talk more of these, be in different benches, separate reservoirs. We don't feel that way. We don't think it really matters at the end of the day, because you are going to need more wells to drain the same amount of oil.
I'm not sure if this is out of context:
We believe our best reservoir, the Three Forks, lies in these upper two members. This has been all of our work today. We drilled a number of wells prior to 2013 in the middle member, several in the upper. We drilled a number of our wells down through, what we call the TF3 marker, which is a separation between the two intervals. And in that case, we seem to get the best penetration rates from a drilling standpoint.
The reason I was confused, because of this that follows:
When we look at the Three Forks, again, we believe they are a little bit inferior to the Bakken wells. You know, are they 10% less 15? We don't believe that's far from the truth. At the same time, clearly this is one of the best wells in the 12 well group. We probably got in some natural traction there, and it's a real horse. So it just gives you a little bit of indication, I think of where we are trending here, and we are pretty excited moving forward.
Takeaway:
Finally, we will talk about capacity build out. Again, most of our oil -- south of wellhead, we are going to continue south of the wellhead, we have not taken capacity on either rails or pipelines. A lot of our oil has moved to Tesoro, who is our largest purchaser. We know a lot of that oil is going to the west coast, and a (inaudible) facility out in the Seattle area. I think the total build out in the basin is about 1.5 million barrels for rail. I think again today, probably 500,000 to 600,000 is moving by rail. So there is plenty capacity in that regard.
Much more at the link.

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