Sunday, December 8, 2019

Sunday Night Notes, Part 1 -- December 8, 2019

WTI: trending toward $60. Could we see $60 by the end of the week? At one time oil bulls would have been thrilled with $60-oil, but things are so bad for so many operators, it seems there is little excitement with the current price of oil. 

China-US trade: date to watch -- December 15, 2019.

Impeachment: date to watch -- Friday the 13th -- December 13, 2019. Body language and public statements by US House democrats suggest not all is yet sorted out. This is a big deal: taking out a duly-elected president with flimsy material. So, we'll watch. The daily presidential tracking poll should be interesting. Link here. Currently President Trump is polling the highest he has polled pretty much through his entire presidency. I'm sure Nance Pelosi is aware of the polling and discussing it with Jerry Nadler.

Dow futures: Sunday night futures don't mean squat ... but, having said that, Dow futures tonight are up a bit.

Bakken Oil -- The "Gold Standard" -- IMO 2020? -- December 8, 2019

In response to my rambling note / idle chatter on GDP, a reader posited:
There might be a fairly strong - and growing - market for American light sweet crude from the shale plays.

I have been following the developments in the marine fuel situation as this market consumes ~4 to 4 1/2 millions of barrels per day (of the 100 million daily global consumption.

It seems that there has been a frantic effort amongst refiners for this market to produce a compliant (<.5% sulphur) fuel that will not 'gum up the engines' of their customers's ships.

Not the easiest of tasks.

Turns out, US shale-sourced oil is the best supply to be lightly refined and then blended with other components to create the most economical, usable fuel.

The Chinese, Korean, and Singaporean refineries are now running with this.

There has been a delay in removing the crucial tender barges from service for the 1 week period of cleaning their holds (in preparation for transporting the new fuel) but that seems to be being addressed right now as a solution for an economic, globally available supply has now been found ... US LTO blended VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil).
The Art Page

Sophia, age 5.5 years of age:

We'll probably "cut out" the section with the two birds, frame it, and hang it.

Random Update Of A CLR Carson Peak Well With Huge Jump In Production That Has Held -- December 8, 2019

The well:
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, Oakdale, Bakken, t5/11 cum 762K 10/19; huge jump in production, 4/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Off Lline And Inactive For Several Months, This EOG Hawkeye Well Is Back On Line -- December 8, 2019

After being IA and off-line for several months, this well is back on line and producing:
  • 22486, 2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek (see stand-alone post); 3-section spacing (1,920 acres); will this be a long lateral (9,000 feet) or a much-talked-about-seldom-seen-super-long lateral (14,000 feet)? I'm betting the latter. If accurate, a huge "thank you" to a reader. This well is NORTHEAST of Watford City. [Turned out to be 25,101 feet long. Yes, a super-long lateral, almost 3 sections long.] Did Lynn Helms misspeak or was he misquoted in The Bismarck Tribune when he said there was a gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City? If there is still another gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City that is better than this well, we are talking some big wells in the Bakken, Three Forks; 47 stages; 14 million lbs of sand, 1920-acre spacing unit; t9/12; cum 783K 10/19; remains off line 10/19; back on line 10/19; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Random Note On CLR's Uhlman / Pittsburgh Wells -- December 8, 2019

Continental (CLR) is operating eight rigs in North Dakota; two of them are drilling salt water disposal wells; one is drilling in the Long Creek Unit.

The other day it was noted that CLR reported eight more wells on the "plugged or producing" list which, of course, in the Bakken means they are producing.

The eight new wells were the Uhlman Federal/Pittsburgh wells which are tracked here.
  • 28737, 1,423, CLR, Uhlman 1-7H, Banks, t1/15; cum 458K 10/19; no evidence this well has been re-fracked (no sundry form; FracFocus); SWSE 7-152-99. Posted at "Wells of Interest." It's an interesting well. Went IA and off line as of 5/19; remains off line 7/19; back on line 9/19; minimal production over 6 days; huge jump in production, 10/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

About That Canadian Economy -- December 8, 2019

The other day I posted personal thoughts about the North American economies:
  • the US: incredible
  • Canada: closed for business
  • Mexico: road to Venezuela
Apparently others have noticed the same thing. From zerohedge the other day:
Canada: "Terrible" jobs report, worst since the financial crisis.
As the US was basking in the warm glow of the best jobs report since January, it was a different story over in Canada, where BMO's chief economist Robert Kavcic had one recommendation to clients: "avert your eyes." Here's why: Canadian employment unexpectedly tumbled by 71,200 in November, the biggest decline since the financial crisis.

For those hoping that the details might serve up better news, they too were disappointed: Full-time employment was down 38.4k, and the private sector shed 50.2k. The jobless rate also rose sharply, up four ticks, and also the biggest monthly jump since the recession, to 5.9%.

Hours worked fell 0.3%, and remain an area of persistent disappointment—they’re now up just 0.25% y/y, much more muted than the 1.6% annual job gain. Oddly enough, the one area of strength was wages, with growth accelerating to match a cycle high at 4.5% y/y, according to Kavcic.

Putting it together, BMO's "grading system" gave this report a 12.1 rating out of 100, which is pretty much as bad as it can possibly get (it is in fact the worst rating in about six years of tracking).
Yeah, pretty much closed for business.

Renewable Energy

We previously posted that global EV sales were down about 24% year-over-year in October, 2019. A reader also noted that the US solar industry was down about the same:
The U.S. solar industry experienced a 30 percent year-over-year decline in installed photovoltaic capacity in 2017, according to a new industry report.

The U.S. Solar Market Insight report said that the U.S. installed a total of 10.6 gigawatts of new solar photovoltaic capacity last year, down from 15.1GWs in 2016.

Source? In Q4 2018, the U.S. solar market installed 4.2 GWdc of solar PV, a 139% increase from Q3 2018 and a 4% increase from Q4 2017. This brought the annual total to 10.6 GWdc, 2% lower than 2017.

10 gig x 20% CF = 2 gig x 1000 = 2000 MW power, mostly at the wrong time of day.

Note 1: same amount of power as provided by two of ND's lignite-fired plants. Antelope Valley 880 MW & Coal Creek 1100 MW

Note 2: Maybe we're not as collectively stupid as it sometimes appear. Can we hope that this solar insanity peaked in 2016 in the USA? It definitely has peaked in Germany (13% capacity factor!) ... probably 2017 .... don't recall. I'm not ready to hope EV's have peaked in the US. EV's are probably a good idea in China where they can run on coal for the next 30 plus years.
Basically A Reprint From Her First Book Decades Ago

Only because I enjoy following her have I posted this link to her most recent essay, but it' snot particularly good. It's mostly a re-hash of what she wrote decades ago and what she continues to write about.

The author and title in The Hollywood Reporter, Camille Paglia: The Death of the Hollywood Sex Symbol (Guest Column).

What Condition Is My Condition In? -- December 8, 2019

The Artist On Her Way To Her Studio

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 8, 2019

35336, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-LE-155-94-1201H-1, Manitou, no production data,

35335, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-4, Manitou, no production data,

34096, conf,Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-3TFH, Blooming Prairie,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35334, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-5, Manitou, no production data,

35118, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 2BX, Banks,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34843, conf, Enerplus, Boreas 149-93-33C-28H, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34842, conf, Enerplus, Metis 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34841, conf, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

34840, conf, Enerplus, Zeus 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

36436, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 30-31-159N-99W MBH, Burg, no production data,

32412, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 12-33H1, Banks, no production data,

36501, conf,  Koda Resources, Stout 2932-2TH, Fertile Valley,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

36182, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11C, Capa, no production data,

36500, conf,  Koda Resources, Stout 2917-1BH, Fertile Valley,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

36183, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11H, Capa, no production data,

34744, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 10B, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32413, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 11-33H, Banks, no production data,

36184, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11B, Capa, no production data,

36185, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11EXF, Capa, no production data,

35537, conf, Oasis, Kjos Federal 5501 11-18 9BX, Missouri Ridge,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

35316, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson Federal 5297 11-30 12BX, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
34743, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 9T, Elidah,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 32414, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1, Banks, no production data;  

36186, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11AXD, Capa, no production data;

35918, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HZ, Squaw Creek, no production data;

35917, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HA, Squaw Creek, no production data;

30596, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 3-4H, Bully, no production data;

Another Chinese Crude Oil Import Record -- December 8, 2019

Link here.

For The Japanese Granddaughters

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- December 8, 2019

Monday, December 16, 2019: 46 for the month; 251 for the quarter:
35336, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-LE-155-94-1201H-1, 

Sunday, December 15, 2019: 45 for the month; 250 for the quarter:
35335, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-4, 
34096, conf,Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-3TFH

Saturday, December 14, 2019: 43 for the month; 248 for the quarter:
35334, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-5, 
35118, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 2BX, 
34843, conf, Enerplus, Boreas 149-93-33C-28H,
34842, conf, Enerplus, Metis 149-93-33C-28H-TF
34841, conf, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF
34840, conf, Enerplus, Zeus 149-93-33D-28H,

Friday, December 13, 2019: 37 for the month; 242 for the quarter:
None -- well, that's good -- Friday the 13th!

Thursday, December 12, 2019: 37 for the month; 242 for the quarter:
36436, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Claire Rose 30-31-159N-99W MBH,
32412, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 12-33H1

Wednesday, December 11, 2019: 35 for the month; 240 for the quarter:
36501, conf,  Koda Resources, Stout 2932-2TH,
36182, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11C,

Tuesday, December 10, 2019: 33 for the month; 238 for the quarter:
36500, conf,  Koda Resources, Stout 2917-1BH,
36183, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11H, 
34744, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 10B, 
32413, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 11-33H,

Monday, December 9, 2019: 29 for the month; 234 for the quarter:
36184, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11B,

Sunday, December 8, 2019: 28 for the month; 233 for the quarter:
36185, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11EXF,
35537, conf, Oasis, Kjos Federal 5501 11-18 9BX, 
35316, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson Federal 5297 11-30 12BX, 
34743, conf, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 9T
32414, conf, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1

Saturday, December 7, 2019: 23 for the month; 228 for the quarter:
36186, conf, XTO, Olaf 42X-11AXD, 
35918, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HZ, 
35917, conf, WPX, Badger 22-21HA,
30596, conf, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 3-4H, 

Friday, December 6, 2019: 19 for the month; 224 for the quarter:
35916, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, no production data,
32415, SI/NC, CLR, Polk Federal 9-33H, Banks, no production data, 
30597, SI/NC, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 4-4H, Bully, no production data,