Monday, September 23, 2019

October, 2019, Hearing Dockets

NDIC dockets and docket schedule here.

Dockets are tracked here

October 8, 2019, Minot, ND:
  • 27828: on a motion of the Commission to consider amendments to the "General Rules and Regulations for the Conservation of Crude Oil and Natural Gas" codified as Article 43-02 ND Administrative Code.
October 9, 2019, Williston, ND:
  • Same.
October 7, 2019, Dickinson, ND:
  • Same.
October 7, 2019, Bismarck, ND:
  • Same.


Saudi Attack + 9 Days -- Gasoline Shipments From Europe To The Mideast Surging -- September 23, 2019

Saudi attack: tea leaves / from twitter past twenty-four hours or so --
  • UK PM Boris Johnson says Iran was responsible; UK could join US-led military effort
  • the repair work is going to last a lot longer than "official" pronouncements suggested
  • consensus over the weekend, now that tours of the facility have been made: eight (8) months
  • Saudi's "sweet oil" was major casualty
  • Saudi will now try to replace "sweet oil" with "sour oil" -- my hunch: customers will object
  • Saudi will have to offer discounts on "sour oil"
But look at this, link here:


From Reuters, the linked article:
Gasoline exports from Europe to the Middle East and Asia are set to surge this week after recent attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities crippled output at the kingdom’s refineries.
Over 400,000 tonnes of gasoline and gasoline blending components have been booked in the past week for loading between Sept. 21 and Sept 26 out of northwest Europe with Mideast Gulf delivery options, shipping data shows. The flow is the equivalent of around 500,000 barrels per day. [Why didn't they say that to begin with; who in the ... measures gasoline in "tonnes"? I guess you do when loading a sea-going tanker. LOL.]
It is unclear where the cargoes will end up, but traders said that Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil company Aramco is seeking to buy large volumes of refined oil products.
Europe’s exports of gasoline and blending components to Saudi Arabia averaged 60,000 bpd in the first five months of the year, according to data analytics firm Vortexa. 
One can opine / prognosticate all one wants on twitter, but when the actual data starts filtering in, then we can get serious. And this is serious.  500,000 bpd vs 60,000 bpd. Rounding, that's 10x.

So much for that Saudi Aramco IPO.

From the graphic at the linked article, these are Saudi's refineries, and capacity or throughput:

Heavy oil:
  • Satorp, 400,000 bpd
  • Yasref, 380,000 bpd
  • Yanbu, 220,000 bpd
    • Sub-total: 1,000,000bpd
Light oil:
  • Samref, 380,000 bpd
  • PetroRabigh, 380,000 bpd
  • Ras Tanura, 300,000 bpd
  • Sasref, 280,000 bpd
  • Riyadh, 110,00 bpd
    • Subtotal: 1,450,000 bpd

Total: 2.5 million bpd
  The attack knocked out one million bpd capacity.

A Bakken Well Demonstrating A Second Jump In Production -- September 23, 2019

We've talked about this many times. Here's the first example. A well with a second jump in production.

The well:
  • 27522, 4.207, Whiting, Flatland Federal 11-4TFHU, Twin Valley, t10/14; cum 541K 7/19; note production jump 10/16: second production jump, 3/19;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20193183468109312622387195562769
BAKKEN6-20193089199092434125222251620
BAKKEN5-201931112571132158543162931044523
BAKKEN4-2019301385413850791541074410140
BAKKEN3-20192513063130379185418621926222555
BAKKEN2-2019289616353471460668766
BAKKEN1-201991601031362622480
BAKKEN12-20182929262926391863385780
BAKKEN11-20183030863133375901570161939
BAKKEN10-2018313189314630894598486911
BAKKEN9-2018303109331945396269375191
BAKKEN8-20183133723694424105881051610
BAKKEN7-2018313623341443211409113470

First jump in production back in 10/16, although not as dramatic:
BAKKEN1-201730570554081310260642595450
BAKKEN12-20162961538449137227984264591468
BAKKEN11-201630819057731104367283662939
BAKKEN10-2016261159511638173233719326511016
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20161123652523366119921189971
BAKKEN6-201630661665061118331963308650
BAKKEN5-20163171747322123537264347242478
BAKKEN4-2016307460718114304074440454230
BAKKEN3-2016318284837117344673246190480

Another Well With Huge Jump In Production -- September 23, 2019

This page will not be updated; this well is tracked elsewhere.

The well;
  • 22808, 4,439, Equinor/Statoil, Cheryl 17-20 4H, t2/13; cum 459K 7/19; off-line 2/18 but back on-line 3/18; off line again, but then back on line 11/18;
Production period of interest:
BAKKEN12-201731160401683211854453404529514
BAKKEN11-2017198891805794642327423094164
BAKKEN10-2017261170911511115782886728624218
BAKKEN9-20171650775234557811964119500
BAKKEN8-201731106631090111776305693047959
BAKKEN7-20173116776166191513935450338261593
BAKKEN6-20172716494160592025933466303733066
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20171150917970000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-201731304360000
BAKKEN12-201611258729364580472247080
BAKKEN11-201630401836959898725272211
BAKKEN10-2016313257324210527540354030
BAKKEN9-201630289426111058946503857793
BAKKEN8-20161138068632320
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160035601311310
BAKKEN3-2016312892287322416119609227
BAKKEN2-2016293413339223918587854740
BAKKEN1-2016314346450425421142211242180

The Brooklyn Oil Field, An Update -- September 23, 2019

In the early days of the Bakken boom I never considered the Brooklyn oil field as a "Tier 1" oil field. I just considered it a "steady Eddy" field, in which CLR was systematically drilling it out. But, wow, my impression has changed.

The Brooklyn oil field is tracked here but it still needs a lot of updating.

Look at the production profile of a recent well:
  • 34768, 1,395, CLR, Helena 8-7HSL1, Brooklyn oil field, t3/19; cum 101K 7/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20193112419125412147634230300263806
BAKKEN6-20193015264148702502132585282193994
BAKKEN5-2019291477114824255612731326760176
BAKKEN4-2019301887219087303193371933191170
BAKKEN3-20193130678307744891647796430884305
BAKKEN2-201911903185841227395199355164
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20183252252320000
BAKKEN11-2018200462000

Most Recent Legacy Fund Deposits Reported; CLR With Eight More Permits For The Long Creek Unit; A Milestone Of Sorts: Permit #37000 Issued -- September 23, 2019

Legacy fund deposit for September, 2019 (link here):


Note: the September, 2019, deposit exceeds the average of every calendar year since and including calendar year 2011 except for years 2013 and 2014.

**************************************
Daily Activity Report


Active rigs:

$58.479/23/201909/23/201809/23/201709/23/201609/23/2015
Active Rigs5966573369

Eight new permits, #36995 - #37002, inclusive:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Long Creek (Williams)
  • Comments: 
    • CLR has permits for eight more wells in the Long Creek Unit; four new Ralph Federal permits; and, four new Reckitt Federal permits; the Long Creek Unit is tracked here; with these eight, it appears CLR has about 38 active permits; goal: 60 wells in this unit to be drilled with two rigs;
Four permits renewed:
  • EOG (3): three Austin permits in Mountrail County
  • Liberty Resources: a Keller permit in Burke County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 35824, 1,483, CLR, Gjorven Federal 6-21H, Brooklyn, t9/19; cum --; one of my favorite fields, the Brooklyn oil field is tracked here;
  • 31806, 1,316, EOG, Riverview 24-3031H, Clarks Creek, t8/19; cum --; #22199, #22200 -- both offline since 2/19; #22486, #22487 both off line since 5/19; #19247 just coming back on line;
  • 34289, 158 (no typo), FBIR Walker 31X-36HXE, Heart Butte, t6/19; cum --; numerous neighboring wells off line;

Bakken Phenomena: Inter-Formation-Uplift; New Lease On Life -- September 23, 2019

I've quit posting parent-child uplift data for the most part; only when it interests me. It's so common in the Bakken, it's no longer news.

However, it should be noted, that for a number of reasons (which should be obvious) the parent-child uplift data generally involves parent wells and daughter/child wells targeting the same formation. In the Bakken, this is generally the middle Bakken.

Without comment or hypothesizing or explanation or anything else, there is another Bakken phenomenon: parent-child uplift involving different formations.

First example that I have specifically pointed out is at this post, a middle Bakken parent well and a Three Forks second bench well.

There have been numerous examples of similar results involving the middle Bakken and the Three Forks, first bench, and I guess I have pointed them out, but not as clearly as I'm pointing it out now. I need a new tag for this phenomenon, perhaps, "parent-child-inter-formation-uplift."

There's also another phenomenon for which I need a tag. Often, an older well is starting to show its age; the decline rate has leveled off and one gets the feeling that the well is beginning to "peter out." Then a neighboring well(s) is (are) completed, and the parent well gets an "extension." There is no significant jump in production (if there is a jump, it is subtle and folks would suggest something else is going on) but the decline rate is extended. The result: the EUR increases. Tag for now, "parent-well-new-lease-on-life" is way too long but I need a placeholder. Maybe "EUR_extended" or "EUR_EXT."

I suppose I could call all these Bakken phenomena, the Bakken gods smile on Harold Hamm. LOL. They may not be enough to move the needle for the operators, but mom-and-pop mineral owners love them and I'm sure the Slawson brothers get a chuckle out of them (or out of my naiveté ).

CLR Has Completed Angus Federal 6-16H2; Older Well Back On Status; Small Jump In Production

A neighboring well has just been completed and is producing:
  • 33965, SI/NC, CLR, Angus Federal 6-16H2, Elm Creek, 26,729 feet; producing as of 5/19; three Forks, second bench;
The well:
  • 20804, 329, CLR, Angus 1-9H, 30 stages; 2.7 million lbs, t2/13; cum 310K 7/19; offline as of 12/18; still offline 4/19; back on line as of 5/19; a middle Bakken well;
Recent production; small jump in production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-201931448241663802687236052877
BAKKEN6-201927353638403573555321153149
BAKKEN5-20199131580664072962628
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20191018722000
BAKKEN12-201825162516875484847443775
BAKKEN11-2018301952205466643603428538

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- September 23, 2019

Opportunities: if anyone has noticed, the US rig counts continue to drop. My hunch is that day rates for drilling have come way down. Those with rigs: the last thing they want to do is "lay them down." They will rent at lower prices to keep them active. Break-even costs in the Bakken, earlier this year. In Mountrail County, $8/bbl is the break-even price.



Making the Bahamas great: remember that story and pictures of that huge petroleum products terminal in the Bahamas before, during, and after Hurricane Dorian? Today, Rigzone is reporting:
Buckeye Partners, L.P. reported Friday that it has resumed full operations at its Buckeye Bahamas Hub.
Buckeye stated that BBH – the largest petroleum products terminal in the Western Hemisphere – sustained only minor damage from Hurricane Dorian, which devastated part of The Bahamas early this month.
The company added that its has completed inspections and repairs and that it found no indications of product release or environmental threats. Last week, Buckeye restored partial operations at BBH.
“On behalf of the entire company, I want to thank the Buckeye emergency response teams and al of our employees in The Bahamas for their dedicated work to safely restore operations at our Buckeye Bahamas Hub,” Khalid A. Muslih, executive vice president and president of Buckeye’s Global Marine Terminals unit, said in a written statement emailed to Rigzone.
Buckeye also stated that the company and its employees have been contributing to various relief and recovery efforts in the wake of Dorian.
Hyperbole, Mideast: whenever anyone says this -- the 2019 attack on Abqaiq -- was the biggest disruption in "oil" supplies in the history of the universe, I remind them of a) the Suez Crisis of 1958; and, b) the OPEC embargo in 1973. There were many, many more repercussions from those two events than what has occurred so far from "Abqaiq-2019."

Hyperbole, Texas: everyone said Imelda, September, 2019, barely a tropical storm according to DFW radio news outlet, was several times worse than Hurricane Harvey. Exxon shut down the largest refinery along the Gulf Coast. After Hurricane Harvey: massive shortages of gasoline in Texas; long lines; service stations running out of gasoline. After Imelda, the price of gasoline hardly rose, if at all, and there were certainly no shortages. Any rise in the price of gasoline was probably from "Abqaiq-2019" and even those increases were minimal.

Hyperbole: some said the attack on Abqaiq would cause price of gasoline to skyrocket, resulting in ... yes, the recession that is right around the corner.

Mea culpa: I'm not immune fro criticism. I thought the price of oil would jump much more than it did. But I'm still convinced, "the numbers don't add up."

**************************************
Corky


I hope Corky, seemingly ageless, will visit me when I'm in a nursing home.

The Permian Vs The Bakken -- Side-By-Side -- Mana A Mano -- September 23, 2019

I don't know if folks like to put windows side-by-side. I know it's a pain, sometimes impossible on a mobile device (phone, tablet) but on a laptop or desktop very, very easy.

Bring up this site and place it on the right half of your screen. It's the EIA production report for the Permian for September / October, 2019.

Place the following in the first window on the left side of the screen. Then compare what you see on the right with what you see below (link here):




Several other comments / observations:
  • Oasis says it is using free cash flow from the Bakken to pay for its operations in the Permian
  • as a basin, the Permian is beating out the Bakken, but they are in the same ballpark: the former is trending toward 5 million bopd (will hit 8 million bopd) and the latter is trending toward 2 million bopd, where it will probably max out
  • wells are still more expensive to drill in the Permian compared to the Bakken (by half again as much in some cases)
  • rigs
    • the Permian with 400+ rigs
    • the Bakken with 50 rigs
  • income / royalties
    • mom-and-pop mineral owners are loving the Bakken
    • the mid-size operators who got into the Permian early are loving the Permian, as is COP
    • folks late to the Permian game may have overpaid --whether they did or not, they certainly paid a log
  • density
    • operators in the Bakken seem to have figured out optimum density and optimum completion strategies, though those will continue to improve
    • stories are still coming out of the Permian that density is an issue
  • due to the way the basins were cut up, the norm for the Bakken is two-mile, 1280-acre spacing; in the Permian spacing, and length of laterals varies considerably
  • natural gas production (MMCF) : crude oi production (bopd)
    • Bakken: 3,000 : 1,500
    • Permian: 15,000 : 5,000

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 23, 2019

EVs: two stories --
Global warming: St Greta spreads the climate gospel -- op-ed, WSJ -- September 20, 2019
The High Church of Environmentalism has acquired many of the characteristics of its ecclesiastical predecessor. An apocalyptic eschatology warns that we will all be consumed by fire if we don’t follow the ordained rules. The notion that it is our sinful nature that has brought us to mortal peril—from the Original Sin of a carbon-unleashing industrial revolution to daily transgressions with plastic bottles and long-haul flights—is as central to its message as it was to the Catholic Church’s. But repentance is near. A gospel of redemption emphasizes that salvation lies in reducing our carbon footprint, with reusable shopping bags and bike-sharing. The secular authorities preach the virtues of abstinence. Meatless Fridays are no longer just for Lenten observance.
UN and global warming, link here: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/un-climate-change-save-the-world-meeting-daniel-turner.
Regardless of the science, or lack thereof, one thing is certain: in order to tackle climate change, the U.N. needs a lot of meetings.
"Time affluence": embracing "time affluence" can maximize vacation (or retirement) happiness -- wellandgood -- September 22, 2019. This is why I don't have bucket lists. 

***************************************
China Has Already Lost The Trade War

China and the trade war, a very interesting read.

Link: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/helen-raleigh-china-lost-trade-war.
China exempted U.S. farm products, including soybean and pork, from additional tariffs, effective Sept. 17. This announcement was seen widely as a goodwill gesture ahead of the October trade talks between U.S. and China. But this seems to be a desperate, self-serving measure, because all the other pork exporting countries combined couldn't fill China's supply shortage. Simply put, China has a need of pork from the U.S., and its suspension from additional tariffs is, in essence, a tactical and indirect acknowledgment that it won’t be able to sustain this trade fight for much longer.
If China had hoped that it could simply wait until Trump loses the 2020 presidential election to get out of the trade war, it has to think again. At the most recent Democrat presidential debate, not a single candidate proposed to remove the trade tariffs Trump imposed on China. So even if Trump loses, China likely would not get someone friendlier in the White House.
***********************************
Recession Is Right Around The Corner

Recession is just around the corner: stock market's eerie parallels to September 2007 should raise recession fears -- MarketWatch -- September 21, 2019. Talking us into recession.

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US Crude Exports Set To Hit New High Into Year-End: HFIR

HFIR analysis of what the attack on Saudi means for oil. From a contributor to SeekingAlpha.

Summary:
  • The majority of the investment community following the Saudi news is fixated on the total production outage, but the more important issue is the crude quality issue.
  • What happens then is that the market will look for a replacement, and the only place in the world today with excess crude storage is the US.
  • US crude export arb signals very elevated US crude exports into year-end.
  • We are seeing ~3 to ~3.3 mb/d for US crude exports in October with an all-time high for November.
  • This now opens up the possibility US crude storage falls to ~350 mbbls by year-end widening our expected WTI forecast from $70 to $85/bbl.
Narrative
Keep in mind that Arab light and Arab extra light have API gravity of 33 to 38. So the ultra-light US shale oil won't be a replacement, but rather the ~38 API gravity WTI will.
Now if you look at the crude export arb, US crude exports will hit an all-time high in November. What will the total volume be? We don't know just yet, but we know that October is going to range between ~3 to ~3.3 mb/d.
We are currently seeing 7 VLCCs waiting for loading in October (4 in the Gulf, 3 incoming).
This combined with Corpus Christi operating at max capacity filling Aframax leads us to believe that US crude exports will likely be closer to ~3.3 mb/d for October.
In the event that US crude exports do average that high and using a conservative refinery throughput figure, we have -4.86 mbbls for October US crude storage figures.
[As usual, "m" in this story equals million.]

North Dakota Active Rigs Drop To 58 -- September 23, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today -- 
Monday, September 23, 2019: 59 for the month; 191 for the quarter:
  • 35413, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Austin 5-17-20-158N-99W TFH, Ellisville, no production data, 
  • 35037, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-4, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 34820, SI/NC, XTO, Myrna Federal 21X-2EXH, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Sunday, September 22, 2019: 56 for the month; 188 for the quarter:
  • 35702, SI/NC, Petroshale, Thunder Cloud 2MBH, McGregory Buttes, no production data,
  • 35038, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Charlie Loomer-150-95-0718H-5, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 34817, SI/NC, XTO, Myrna 21X-2B, Alkali Creek, no production data,
Saturday, September 21, 2019: 53 for the month; 185 for the quarter:
  • 36003, 289, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H 2, Alexandria, t8/19; cum --;
  • 35039, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Charlier Loomer-150-95-0718H-6,  Blue Buttes, no production data,
Active rigs:

$58.079/23/201909/23/201809/23/201709/23/201609/23/2015
Active Rigs5866573369

RBN Energy: Cushing crude inventories drop amid shifting fundamentals.
Every week, traders far and wide watch inventories at the storage hub of Cushing, OK, for insight into the U.S. crude oil market. Cushing has long been the epicenter for crude trading in the U.S., and while that role has shifted as the Gulf Coast gains more prominence, inventories at the Oklahoma hub are still a valuable indicator for traders looking for supply and demand trends. Recently, we’ve seen Cushing stocks drop significantly, declining for 11 straight weeks since the beginning of July to their lowest levels since last Thanksgiving. Today, we review the recent drop at Cushing, and discuss how a few changes in supply and demand fundamentals, plus strong pricing motives, helped drag down stockpiles this summer....
The third and final big reason for the draws at Cushing was the change in Permian flows. Starting at the end of June with linefill beginning on Plains All American’s Cactus II pipeline, more and more Permian volumes were being attracted away from Cushing-bound pipes and toward the new pipelines to the Gulf Coast. Gulf Coast pricing has maintained a premium over Cushing of over $4/bbl since the beginning of June, making it the premier market for West Texas barrels. Add in the opportunity to move those barrels to even higher-priced overseas markets via export, and the Gulf Coast has been the place to be for Permian oil. Once Cactus II and EPIC began flowing this summer, it became harder and harder for Cushing markets to drag barrels north out of the Permian. This a big, fundamental shift in flows into the Cushing hub, and one that could have an ongoing profound impact on storage levels.
Focus on Fracking: Sunday update