Monday, December 9, 2019

To Readers: Keep Sending Me Your Links, Comments -- But I'm Exhausted -- Will Take The Evening Off -- December 9, 2019

I had an incredibly physically and mentally exhausting day. I need to take a break. I had so many great links and comments from readers, thank you.

Keep sending me stories, links, comments. I will get to them but I might not get to them tonight.

But, wow, there is so much going on. Hard to keep up.

Numbers Don't Lie

Minnesota is #40.

Oregon is #44.

Montana is #38.

Iowa is #25.

I've been waiting for this list. 

It's the annual ALEC-Laffer State Economic Outlook Rankings, 2019.

Story at this link:

#5: Indiana

#4: Nevada

#3: North Dakota

#2: Huge shout-out to Idaho -- they've had a decade of tough times

and, #1 ... Utah.

Texas doesn't make the top five. The Lone Star state is #15. Okay. But much worse than I would have guessed.

The five states (sic) with the worst economic outlook:
  • Hawaii
  • New Jersey
  • California
  • Illinois
  • Vermont
  • New York
"The report ranked Hawaii, New Jersey, California, Illinois, Vermont and New York as the five states with the worst economic outlook, respectively." -- That's a direct cut and paste from the article; screen shot pending. I count six states. Apparently, someone is either counting New York and New Jersey as one state, or they don't consider Hawaii a real state. Of course, President Obama thought there were 57 states.

I'm not surprised to see New York/New Jersey on the list, but I am very, very surprised to see California on the list. That's scary. California's economy is perhaps the fifth largest economy in the world.

One wonders what Vermont is doing [wrong] to make that list?

US Petroleum Exports Exceed Imports In September, 2019

Link here.
In September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported, the first month this has happened since monthly records began in 1973.
A decade ago, the United States was importing 10 million b/d more petroleum than it was exporting.
Long-running changes in U.S. trade patterns for both crude oil and petroleum products have resulted in a steady decrease in overall U.S. net petroleum imports.
But note:
Despite increasing exports of crude oil, however, the United States remains a net importer of crude oil. The United States continues importing primarily heavy high-sulfur crude oils that most U.S. refineries are configured to process, and more than 60% of U.S. crude oil imports come from Canada and Mexico.
 There was a reason why "we" wanted the Keystone XL.

The Disconnect Between Natural Gas - Crude Oil Pricing -- Part 2 -- December 9, 2019


December 10, 2019: pay attention to this -- it's subtle but record-setting -- from a reader, see comments:
Natural gas prices for January hit an all time low a week ago Friday and beat that yesterday, a fact largely missed by the media...they don't understand prices for gas are seasonal, and while it's been lower in the summer, we've never had a January contract price fall this low...

I have the price graphs here:
Expecting a mild winter and lots of natural gas?

Most recent graph:

December 10, 2019: a heck of a response from a reader regarding this story -- :
I do not think it is yet widely recognized just how profound - and widespread - are the effects of the divergence of Henry Hub pricing (aka US production) and benchmarks for crude (WTI, Brent, amongst many).
Focusing only upon the cost/price impacts on US LNG exports, get a load of these ...
  • Algeria is cutting back on piped gas exports to Europe 
  • Cyprus is mulling over an LNG terminal (FSRU to start) rather than commit to a short, 12 inch pipeline from the nearby Israeli gas field as the ~$5.50/mmbtu LNG price is cheaper than the ~$6/mmbtu price of the piped gas 
  • Singapore is on track to completely end its imports of piped gas from nearby Malaysian and Indonesian fields when contracts expire in 5 years as imported LNG will be substantially cheaper 
  • New, massive Siberian/China gas pipeline may not provide cheaper gas than LNG in southern regions of China due to cost of transportation 
  • Turkey was importing LNG via the world's largest FSRU rather than increasing purchases of Gazprom's piped gas as the LNG was almost 2 bucks/mmbtu cheaper. 
One common thread to these developments is that historical pricing for piped gas is tied to indexed crude oil pricing
As the US-centric Henry Hub pricing continues to maintain a surreal level of rock bottom numbers, traditional LNG or piped gas suppliers are simply getting rocked out of their boots. These players include Australia, Qatar, Algeria, Russia ... virtually any existing or emerging country looking to export natural gas.

Note ... just as political and social factors come into play with oil revenues vis a vis domestic monetary distribution, the natural gas producers are in the same boat.
With LNG module fabrication yards in China and Italy affiliated with McDermott, Fluor, BHGE, et al, cranking out ready-to-assemble components ...
With small and mid scale operators plunging in with innovations at blinding speed ...
It is simply incontestable to state that the global order in the energy world will see upheavals in the coming years unlike anything witnessed in years gone by.
Original Post

Link here to part 1.

This was EIA's projection back in 2009, for the 2010 report:

So, if I understand the graph correctly, back in 2010, the EIA forecast a ratio of 3 to 1 for price of oil to price of natural gas in usual methods of pricing oil and natural gas. If crude oil was trading for $60, then natural gas should be about $20.

So, how did their projections work out? Also from the EIA:

Price of oil is on the x-axis at the left (currently about $50) while the price of natural gas is on the x-axes on the right (currently about $2). And between 2010 and 2014, the spread was much wider.

The tea leaves suggest the spread may widen slightly over the next eighteen months:
  • natural gas prices should come down another 25 cents;
  • crude oil should increase another $2 to $5

For The Record -- A McKenzie County Spill -- December 9, 2019

From The Williston Herald:
A vibration that sheared off a bolt resulted in the release of 480 barrels of crude oil on Saturday, Dec. 7 in McKenzie County at an Encana subsidiary’s well site.
The spill was reported by Newfield Production Company at the Sturgeon 150-99-18-193H well (sic), which is located about 6 miles west of Watford City.
All of the crude oil that was released was contained to the required dikes and berms around the facility.
More at the link. I'm impressed. It is customary to report spills in "gallons." In this case it was reported in "bbls."

In fact, the well is Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-3H:
  • 35979,  2,461, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-3H, Newfield (Encana), South Tobacco Garden, t7/19; cum 96K 10/39, 42K well;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

WTI Down, But Appears To Hold At $59; Whiting With One New Permit But Cancels Another Seventeen Permits; Bruin With Eight Huge DUCs Completed -- December 9, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5664534065

One new permit today, #37275:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a permit for another Roggenbuck Federal well in section 24-153-93, Sanish oil field
Whiting canceled another seventeen permits:
  • 31239, Carscallen, Williams County, Truax oil field,
  • 31237, Carscallen, Williams County, Truax oil field;
  • 34443, Rennerfeldt, Williams County, Stockyard Creek,
  • 30851, Sue, Williams County, Stockyard Creek,
  • 30840, P Earl Rennerfeldt, Williams County, Stockyard Creek, 
  • 30716, Kaldah, Williams County, Ray,
  • 27411, Helling, Williams County, Ray,
  • 26165, Zalesky, Stark County, North Creek,
  • 26166, Zalesky, Stark County, North Creek,
  • 30010, Kostelecky, Stark County, South Heart,
  • 28292, Kostelecky, Stark County, South Heart,
  • 29179, Iver & Minnie, Stark County, Zenith, 
  • 36387, Ogden, Mountrail County, Sanish,
  • 36390, Ogden, Mountrail County, Sanish,
  • 33053, Mallow, McKenzie County, Pembroke,
  • 26896, Faiman, Dunn County, St Anthony,
  • 26895, Faiman, Dunn County, St Anthony,
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31458, 6,311, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-6B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 35962, 4,471, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-7T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 35963, 4,103, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-8T2, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 35964, 5,029, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-9B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31455, 5,346, Bruin, FB James 15--94-3A-10-11B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31456, 4,617, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-12T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31457, 4,406, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-13B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;
  • 31454, 5,603, Bruin, FB James 15-94-3A-10-10T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum --;

What's Going On With Whiting? -- December 9, 2019

What's going on with Whiting? Whiting has canceled three Periot wells in Dollar Joe oil field (Williams County) out of eight Periot permits, and has not done anything with two very old Periot permits. [December 10, 2019: update here.]

See also: Whiting cancels seventeen permits.

I count four active rigs for Whiting, two in Mountrail County, and two in McKenzie County.

I don't have the denominator for the following years, the denominator being the number of permits Whiting was issued for that year. It should be remembered that Saudi Arabia "flooded" the world with oil in an attempt to destroy the US shale industry from about 2014 - 2016.

By the year issued, these are the number of permits canceled by Whiting. Obviously permits issued in past years were canceled this year, so this is not the number of permits canceled per year -- if that makes sense.

So far in 2019, it appears Whiting has canceled 64 permits (updated December 9, 2019). This compares with previous years:
  • 2018: 7
  • 2017: 9
  • 2016, Saudi's actions impacting US shale: 36
  • 2015, Saudi's actions impacting US shale: 44
  • 2014, by mid-year, Saudi's actions impacted US shale: 21
  • 2013: 21
  • 2012: 19
  • 2011: 8
  • 2010: 7
  • 2009: 5
  • 2008: 5
  • 2007, the year of the "discovery well" in the Bakken: 2
  • 2006: 5
  • 2005: 1
  • 2004: 1
  • 2003: no North Dakota Whiting permits canceled in 2003 or prior
Permits canceled starting December:
Disclaimer: the usual disclaimers pertain.


What are the pollsters afraid of?

The last national poll, a week ago, 12/1 - 12/3.

The last Iowa poll, a month ago, 11/15 - 11/19.

The last New Hampshire poll, a couple of weeks ago, 11/22 - 11/26.

Daily tracking poll, approval:
  • Trump: 51%
  • Obama (same point in office): 45%
Later, just an hour later after posting the above, a new poll was released:
Harvard-Harris poll released today: Hillary Clinton at top of list among Democrat voters. At 21% she is statistically tied with Biden, 20%. Others, Sanders, 12%; Pocahontas, 9%; and Bloomberg, 7%. Pocahontas has truly imploded; she will stick it out through Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire, but then after that, it's all over but the screech and "here's the thing." I was surprised to see Sanders drop below 15%; his support is fairly committed and unlikely to change. Or are they? Have some of Sanders' supporters moved to Hillary? 
The top five poll only 69% which means these five will split 31% as the others withdraw over the next few months. 

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- December 9, 2019

Christmas gifts. Fortunately her teacher clarified that we're just talking about a toy and not the real thing. Real unicorns are in such short supply around the holidays.

Orcadian Picts? Quick! Everyone knows what a Pict is but does anyone know what "Orcadian" means?  From The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009, page 66. There are two interesting things about this story:
  • there were Northern Picts, and there were Southern Picts; who knew? and,
  • it appears that somewhere between the 8th century and the 9th century, practically all native Picts were wiped out.
By the Vikings.

On another note, the only two "tribes" the Romans were unable to subdue/subjugate: the Germanic tribes (think Goths and Vandals) and the Vikings.

My paternal heritage: Norwegian Vikings.

My maternal heritage: Germanic tribes, just not sure which one(s).

Scary. And then the children/grandchildren have a Japanese samurai warrior in their background.

I can't wait until Sophia is asked to write a family history essay in third grade: I'll provide her a great theme.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 9, 2019

First things first: from Powerline, and we're not talking about the northern California fires, the week in pictures.

Top two, and it was a tough choice:

That Peloton Ad -- December 9, 2019

Now, back to the first story I posted earlier this morning:
First things first: there are so many story lines here, one does not know where to begin, but because it's such a busy day, I will simply provide the link and come back to this later: Peloton girl revisited.
The two ads currently running that absolutely, positively "bother" me the most are the "Peloton girl" ad and the Bloomberg ad(s). I think there are two Bloomberg ads. For a multi-billionaire with more money than Trump -- much more money than Trump, by the way -- I find it incredible that Bloomberg was able to field only two different ads. And both seem identical. But I digress.

There are so many story lines with the "Peloton girl" ad. Here's a video before I get started.

First and foremost: the reason this ad is disliked so much it seems to be very, very sexist. A husband (live-in boyfriend?) buys a Peloton for his wife (live-in girlfriend?) which suggests to many/most that he finds her a bit on the heavy side and needs to lose some weight. LOL. Not good. So how could a company make such a huge mistake? That's easy. It has to do with how the company "sees itself." The CEO recently said that Peloton is not a fitness company but rather Peloton is in the "streaming video" market. And that makes sense: there's a lot more money to be made in streaming video (think Disney) than fitness (think LA Fitness). And, so, the Peloton folks never saw this as a sexist fitness ad but a tech savvy ad.

Of course, the CEO is disingenuous. Peloton is upping its ad presence right during the Christmas season exactly when fitness centers have historically pushed their product, hoping to get people to act on their New Year's resolutions to become more fit. At the end of the day, Peloton is a "fitness company."

A second story line is the degree to which folks actually watch commercials on YouTube as full videos, and then like/dislike them.

A third story line, of course, is the fact that I was aligned with the majority of those commenting the Peloton video.

A fourth story line: to watch whether Peloton pulls this video. Of course, pundits will tell you it doesn't matter -- the important thing is that people are talking about Peloton. I'm not so sure.

A fifth story line: how a commercial can be a life-changing event for a previously unknown actor/actress.

The sixth and last story line for now: the big, big winner (second only to the actress) is Aviation gin. LOL.

And, finally, the original Peloton girl:

Keeping Texas Great -- Disruptive Technology? -- December 9, 2019

Using the phrase "disruptive technology" seems a bit of hyperbole but what do I know. From Rigone, again:
Chevron Technology Ventures (CTV) has invested in an Austin, Texas-based manufacturer of spark-proof electric motors that aims to disrupt the oil and gas and other industries.
CTV invested in Infinitum through the firm’s latest round of financing, which raised $12.5 million and was spearheaded by Cottonwood Technology Fund which plans to use the fresh capital to hire more employees and open a new headquarters and manufacturing facility in Austin.
Infinitum’s growth plans hinge on bringing to market its lightweight, printed circuit board stator technology-based electric motors. It contends the motors – to be marketed for various oil and gas, aerospace and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) applications – offer very high efficiency and durability and are Internet of Things (IoT)-enabled.
“Our patented motor technology will completely transform the electric motor market, a market that has changed very little since inception more than 100 years ago,” commented Ben Schuler, Infinitum’s CEO.
" ... will completely transform the electric motor market." So, we'll see. 

The Disconnect Between Natural Gas - Crude Oil Pricing -- December 9, 2019

See part 2 here.

From Rigzone, shale has "de-linked" pricing for natural gas and crude oil:
The diversion between oil and gas prices came in 2008-2009. This is right when the U.S. shale oil and gas revolution took off, when the deployment of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies became widespread. So just looking over this century, there have really been two distinct periods for oil and gas: the “pre-shale era” (2000-2008) and the “shale era” (2009-present).  
Talk about coincidental. Saturday my son-in-law and I were discussing exactly that. I pointed out that crude oil is international in scope whereas natural gas is much more regional. Natural gas can be transported long distances, but like crude oil that comes at a cost, and .... well, here is Rigzone again --
This is all noteworthy because both U.S. oil and gas production have boomed since 2009. Domestic crude output has risen 150 percent, with gas up 60 percent. The vital difference between these two commodities, however, is that oil is easily transportable and therefore sold on an immense international market with linked prices. For oil consuming nations, outside forces and decisions reverberate around the world. The U.S. shale oil boom is simply not able to shelter the domestic market like shale gas has. Gas remains a regional product with distinct markets: over 70 percent of the world’s oil usage is internationally traded, versus just 30 percent for gas. 
I also mentioned to my son-in-law that I could not imagine the price of natural gas dropping any further. But here is Rigzone again:
Looking forward, higher oil prices will generally mean lower U.S. gas prices. That is because of the Permian basin in West Texas, the largest oil field in the world. Higher prices will lead to more oil drilling and more associated gas supply. To illustrate, despite not having a single gas-directed rig in 16 months, the Permian now accounts for almost 20 percent of U.S. gas output. In the reverse, lower oil prices can lift gas prices by lowering gas production. The reality is that gas remains a secondary resource to oil, and its market is just too small to have a material impact on oil prices.
I don't think the Bakken has ever had a single gas-directed rig and look at the amount of natural gas being produced in North Dakota: over 3 billion cfpd.

The Bakken boom began in North Dakota in 2007. Tbe Bakken reached its stride in 2010 - 2012.

By the way, despite the stellar US jobs report last week, there was one very disheartening note:
The U.S. saw a sharp decline in support activities for mining in November, according to data released Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Citing a challenging market environment, several upstream companies have continued to reduce their staff, including natural gas producer Range Resources, shale and gas producer Gulfport Energy and frac sand supplier U.S. Silica. 
Speaking of which, I forgot to post the most recent natural gas fill data:


GDP -- Idle Chatter -- December 8, 2019

I'm way out front of my headlines here. I don't understand macro-economics (or micro-economics, for that matter) and I certainly don't understand how GDP is calculated. I mean, I can read the formula and I understand the concept, but I have no idea how the government can access / analyze all that data. I assume much of it comes from quarterly tax receipts. Whatever.

As I understand it the quarterly GDP reported is quarterly data that is then annualized, and is reported as a change, quarter over quarter, annualized. So, if the 2Q19 GDP is reported as 2.9%, that suggests the annual GDP will be 2.9% greater than the 2018 GDP.

I could be wrong, but that's how I understand it.

I posted all that to note this post from August 11, 2012: "it never quits."

With the economy seemingly doing so well, some folks remain confused why the GDP is not higher or rising more quickly. By the way, international currency manipulation can have a huge effect on reported GDP and that's why some folks prefer purchasing power parity when comparing GDP among different countries. But I digress.

Although consumer spending (CS) accounts for two-thirds of the US GDP, the other three components in the equation are not trivial (although I might argue that point):
  • investment by businesses
  • government spending
  • net exports
Business investment (BI): a drag on GDP after December 31, 2018 -- 
  • when I went back and looked at the above "it never quits" link it dawned on me that energy infrastructure investment in US shale peaked by the end of 2014: pipelines; CBR; greenfield development; etc.
  • The Trump tax incentives for business investment must have peaked by the end of 2018, after the tax reform bill was signed on December 22, 2017, the largest overhaul in tax law in 30 years.
Government spending (GS): a drag on GDP under Trumpian economics --
  • I've long lost the bubble on government spending but President Trump has been trying to slow such spending down, working against his own goal to increase GDP.
Net exports (EX): and this is where we get into currency manipulation. A strong dollar is a drag on exports and thus a drag on the GDP --
  • dollar strength, 43-year history; compare the strength of the US dollar during the Trump administration with the strength of the dollar during the previous administration; huge difference
There you have it. Or at least, there "I" have it. The bureaucrats crunching the GDP numbers could probably ignore BI, GS, and EX, and only track consumer spending and have a rough approximation for US GDP.

In other words, as "I" see it, it is said that US consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of US GDP. In reality, if one dismisses the I, GS, and EX as irrelevant in the big scheme of things we get back to consumer spending as the only relevant driver of GDP calculations.

I know folks will challenge me calling I, GS, and EX as irrelevant but the problem with these three data point they are more closely connected to politics: one party likes a weak dollar; the other party likes a strong dollar; governments can manipulate currency; and, like a strong dollar, one party likes big government spending; the other party likes less government spending (whether they adhere to their beliefs is a separate issue).

[Ironically -- if that's the right word -- going to war -- all else being equal -- would greatly improve a country's GDP: government spending would increase; and business investment to support the war would increase.]

The US equity market has already had an incredible year, If we have a Santa Claus rally, 50% of Americans (or more) will feel "richer" (even if they are not) and further drive consumer spending).

Going forward, 4Q19 and 1Q20:
  • CS: will not contract; consumer spending will increase if anything; especially if there is a Santa Claus rally on top of an already incredible year for investors
  • GS: no change
  • BI: no change; probably can't contract any more than it already has
  • EX: probably a wash; a strong dollar will negatively impact the equation, but increasing energy exports will offset that to some degree
That's my two cents worth.

Ten Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- December 9, 2019

First things first: there are so many story lines here, one does not know where to begin, but because it's such a busy day, I will simply provide the link and come back to this later: Peloton girl revisited.

DFW weather: coming into work this a.m. I was surprised to see (feel?) how warm it was. Downright balmy. I overdressed. Then on the radio, tomorrow's forecast: rain and snowy mix tomorrow with a low of 27°. But by the evening, that weather, they say, should be cleared out. [Later, talk radio is also mentioning how warm it is this morning. Winds from the south have brought temperatures to the mid-60s, but by noon things will shift and a cold front coming in from Oklahoma will make it a lot colder and a lot wetter. I normally would not have paid a lot of attention to all of this except I always have to consider what jacket/coat Sophia needs for TutorTime on any given day.]

Most interesting link today: as regular readers know, I generally don't care for many of the guest columnists over at oilrpice. But this one could have been written by me -- well, no really -- I'm not a good writer -- but my thoughts are 1,000% aligned with those of Simon Watkins. I wish he had not posted the column to plug his book but I appreciate his transparency and honest.

Blog readers pretty smart: look at this post from last night, from a reader. Tsvetana Paraskova over at oilprice corroborates what the reader was saying if I'm reading both her column and the reader's comments correctly.  I think the reader would argue that one could replace the phrase, "those cleaner marine fuels," with "Bakken light." LOL.

Halliburton: confirms more layoffs in Oklahoma. I wasn't sure if this was a reprint (re-posting) of an earlier story but it appears Halliburton is announcing another round of layoffs less than a week after announcing the layoffs of 800 employees in El Reno, Oklahoma. Interestingly enough, the El Reno facility housed the company's remote operations center and frack crews. Wow, the oil services industry has certainly changed since the heady days of the Bakken boom.

Canada, closed for business: for those who missed it, the recent jobs report coming out of Canada

Politics: for those who missed it, the daily presidential approval tracking poll posted last night is startling, to say the least. 

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5564534065

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today --  

Monday, December 9, 2019: 29 for the month; 234 for the quarter:
  • 36184, drl, XTO, Olaf 42X-11B, Capa, no production data,
Sunday, December 8, 2019: 28 for the month; 233 for the quarter:
  • 36185, drl, XTO, Olaf 42X-11EXF, Capa, no production data,
  • 35537, 873, Oasis, Kjos Federal 5501 11-18 9BX, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; cum 105K 10/19; 25K month;
  • 35316, 1,146, Oasis, Mildred Nelson Federal 5297 11-30 12BX, Elidah, t7/19; cum 104K 10/10; 32K month;
  • 34743, 1,008, Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 9T, Elidah, t6/19; cum 101K 10/10;
  • 32414, SI/NC, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1, Banks, no production data,
Saturday, December 7, 2019: 23 for the month; 228 for the quarter:
  • 36186, drl, XTO, Olaf 42X-11AXD, Capa, no production data,
  • 35918, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HZ, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 35917, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HA, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 30596, SI/NC, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 3-4H, Bully, no production data,
Friday, December 6, 2019: 19 for the month; 224 for the quarter:
  • 35916, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 32415, SI/NC, CLR, Polk Federal 9-33H, Banks, no production data, 
  • 30597, SI/NC, Sinclair, Ersa Federal 4-4H, Bully, no production data,   
RBN Energy: how long-term contracts factor into US LNG cargo destinations.