Monday, December 7, 2020

Notes From All Over -- The Early Evening Edition -- December 7, 2020

There are simply not enough hours in the day to get everything posted. 

Exempt: NYC lock downs? SNL exempt. 

Apple: everyone is quite aware that Apple elected not to include power adapters with shipments of the new iPhone 12 models. From MacRumors tonight:

Shortly after the new iPhone 12 models launched without power adapters, Samsung shared an ad mocking Apple for not including a charging accessory. That commentary hasn't aged well, however, as there's more proof that Samsung too is planning to ditch power adapters for its next-generation smartphones. 
You don't think every company is looking for ways to squeeze an extra dime from every sale? We already talked about another revenue stream for Apple earlier today -- a combined hardware-software subscription bundle.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Netflix: yet another winner. Coming at just the right time when stay-at-home orders are forcing folks to look at different in-home diversions. In this case: chess. From wiki: The Queen's Gambit was released on October 23, 2020. After four weeks of viewing it became Netflix's most-watched scripted miniseries.

Elon Musk: moving to Texas?

Writing on the wall: ExxonMobil will be forced to go green.

Monday Night Tweets -- December 7, 2020

Bayou Sara, Louisiana -- The Most "Honest" Wiki Entry Ever -- Idle Ramblings -- December 7, 2020

I tell the granddaughters never to quit reading. It really doesn't matter what they read as long as they keep reading and read "good writing."

I'm having a blast taking notes on The Mississippi Kite. My notes are here. The notes are in draft form and still in progress.

I'm starting to get a better feeling for the "bayous" in Louisiana.

In the process of "researching" these bayous, I came across this entry in wiki. I have never seen such an entry over at wiki before.

You might have to click on it to get the image large enough to make it easier to read.

BR With Four More CCU Permits -- December 7, 2020

The market:

  • Dow and S&P 500 fall back a bit; NASDAQ hits new record.
  • NASDAQ up 56 points; closes over 12,500
  • Dow remains above 30,000 or 8x the S&P 500
  • S&P 500: at 3,700 = 1/8th of the Dow

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1655645339

The Midwest AgEnergy Group rig is still on the active list. 

Four new permits, #38009 - 38012, inclusive:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Corral Creek
  • Comments:
    • BR with permits for four more Plymouth MBH/TFH wells in SENW 29-147-94, all 1844' - 1845' FNL and between 2261' and 2396' FWL.
      • 38009, BR, Corral Creek, CCU Plymouth 21-29 MBH, SENW 29-147-94, 1845 FNL 2261 FWL,
      • 38010, BR, Corral Creek, CCU Plymouth 31-29 TFH, SENW 29-147-94, 1845 FNL 2306 FWL,
      • 38011, BR, Corral Creek, CCU Plymouth 34-29 MBH, SENW 29-147-94, 1845 FNL 2351 FWL,
      • 38012, BR, Corral Creek, CCU Plymouth 44-29 TFH, SENW 29-147-94, 1844 FNL 2396 FWL,

Two Zavanna wells that were on drl/A status have now been approved for confidential status:

  • 36543, conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 3TFH,
  • 36544, conf, Zavanna, Blue Heeler 20-16 4H,

Ten permits renewed:

  • XTO (6): six Hartel permits, McKenzie County;
  • BR (2): one Fritz Falls permit and one Rifle Person permit, both in Dunn County;
  • Oasis: one Fraser Federal permit in Williams County;
  • Equinor: one Tufto permit in Williams County;

Two wells with name changes:

  • Oasis changed names for  #34222 and #37266, respectively, to Cliff Federal 5300 43-354B and Cliff Federal 5300 43-35 5B, from Fraser Federal 5300 43-35 6BX and Borden Federal 53-- 43-35 6BX;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 35594, SI/A, Enerplus, Fog 149-94-33C-28H-TF-LL, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 253K 10/20; a 53K month;
  • 36054, drl/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 13-8H, Haystack Butte,  t--; cum --;
  • 36096, drl/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 12-5H1, Haystack Butte, t--: cum --;
  • 36097, drl/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 11-5H, Haystack Butte, t--: cum --

The Enerplus Fog Well

The "Cloudy" wells are tracked here

The well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Chinese Flu Watch -- December 7, 2020

Link here. Top five states for new cases per capita (seven-day rolling average):

  • Rhode Island tops the list, surging to 772 per 100,000;
  • then comes, Indiana, jumping from #5 to #2;
  • Alaska makes the top five for the first time, entering the list at #5;

California's economy is in deep trouble; the number of cases is just beginning to surge. It's all about herd immunity, urban density, and social distancing.

  • North Dakota's penetration (herd immunity) is approaching 11% and cases/capita are plummeting:
  • South Dakota, for some reason, despite a penetration approaching 10%, is surging again, #3 on the top five list;
  • California's penetration is a dismal 3.5%, below the US as a whole at 4.6%. Imagine what California is yet to face if it moves toward 11% penetration before the vaccine becomes widely available; the governor will shut down the entire state;

Deaths per capita, link here:

  • the top seven states: New England, New York, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Louisiana
  • #8: North Dakota
  • #9: South Dakota

Number of new cases reported yesterday:

  • California: 28,000; 3x Texas; almost 4x Florida;
  • Texas: 9,000
  • Florida: 8,000
  • Minnesota: 6,000

Energy Watch 

On "low demand" days in New England, renewable energy often reaches 13 to 14 percent of overall contribution. Today, for some reason, renewable energy is only accounting for 8 percent of consumption. Hydro electricity had to be increased to meet demand. I believe "hydro" from Canada is the most expensive source of energy for New England. Link here.

Star Watch

Those Apple M1 Chips? Just The Beginning -- December 7, 2020

Apple working on next-generation Apple silicon chips -- due to launch next year -- 2021. Link here.

Then this. The other day I talked about the subscription model for car companies. The subscription model will work for everything. It turns out that some are suggesting it now makes sense for Apple to roll out a combined hardware - software subscription bundle. Wow! Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

On a day when the Dow is down 150 points, AAPL is up 1.6%, up almost $2.00 / share trading over $124.

Meanwhile ...

... the common folks will need more than a subscription plan to be able to afford this.

For the archives.

File under "ridiculous."

The Sports Page

Our own Grapevine High School women's volleyball team advances to Texas State Semi-Finals.

In the big scheme of things, Grapevine is not a particularly large city or large high school. Pretty cool. Neither of our older granddaughters play volleyball; they are involved with soccer and water polo.

Biggest Non-Energy Story Of The Week; GS With A Shot Across The Bow -- A Day That Will Live In Infamy -- December 7, 2020

I thought we had the biggest non-energy story on Sunday, yesterday. 

But this may be even bigger. Goldman Sachs --yes, that Goldman Sachs -- telegraphing that it may be moving a division to warmer climates. Link here.

Goldman Sachs is eyeing a move to Florida for one of its key divisions — in what could be yet another major blow to New York City’s position at the helm of the financial industry. 
The financial titan is considering relocating its $8 billion-revenue-generating asset management arm to Palm Beach County or Fort Lauderdale, checking out potential real estate, chatting up local officials and weighing the Sunshine State’s tax advantages. The potential development comes on the heels of several other investment companies moving from the Big Apple down South — and battering New York’s bottom line with the loss of white-collar jobs.

The link is to the New York Post but apparently Bloomberg broke the story. 

But Dallas, TX, is also in the mix!

Manhattan now has the most office space empty since right after 9/11, Bloomberg said.

As The Post reported in October, billionaire Paul Singer has decided to move the headquarters of his hedge fund Elliott Management from Manhattan to Florida, according to sources, while Carl Icahn also made the switch for his offices.

Florida offers tax advantages — not to mention warmer weather appreciated by at least some Manhattan-weary workers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown that more work can be done remotely than ever before, too, so there is less of a need for costly offices.

Still, no decision has been made by the Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which is considering Dallas, Texas, too, for its assets management division.

China: RECORD TRADE SURPLUS -- Under President Trump -- December 7, 2020

The tea leaves predicted this; we've posted several links on China over the past few days. Today: China exports generate record trade surplus.

Not just another trade surplus, BUT a RECORD TRADE SURPLUS during a pandemic.

Link here.

China’s trade surplus widened to a record in November, as global demand for the country’s goods grew even more robust.

November exports were up 21% from a year earlier, the General Administration of Customs reported Monday, accelerating from October’s 11.4% and beating economists’ 12% forecast. Imports were up 4.5%, slowing slightly from October’s 4.7% and short of the 5.3% expected by economists. The resulting $75.42 billion trade surplus topped the record set in May, when a drop in imports was the major factor.

China’s exports have topped market expectations since the second quarter, when Beijing moved to restart the world’s second-largest economy after lockdowns and Covid-19 outbreaks at the start of the year. During the pandemic, protective gear and work-from-home tech products have served as pillars for China’s overseas trade, helping it gain global market share.
From Fox Business:
China’s exports rose at the fastest pace since February 2018 in November, helped by strong global demand and as the factory recovery from the coronavirus in the world’s second-largest economy outpaced those of its major trading partners.

Rambling: More On DeepMind -- This Story Has Legs -- December 7, 2020

See this post.

How DeepMind boss Demis Hassabis used chess to get billionaire Peter Thiel to take notice. 

Link here.

Hassabis told The Sunday Times newspaper that he had “literally one minute” with Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and Palantir, in his California mansion in August 2010 after an event that Thiel hosts each year called Singularity Summit. 
“I spent months thinking about how I would use the one minute I had to speak to him,” said the entrepreneur. “There’s hundreds of people there, but everyone and their dog is trying to pitch something, so it was difficult to see why he would take notice of us.” 
Hassabis said he read about Thiel’s background and realized that he played chess as a junior. 
“That was my ‘in’. Instead of pitching him my business idea, I tried to intrigue him,” said Hassabis, who reached No.2 in the world for his age group by 12. 
“In that one minute, I managed to crowbar in the question of why chess is such an amazing game. I have asked grandmasters this question and they have struggled to give an answer. But as a game designer, I have thought deeply about it. Chess is exquisite. It is almost perfectly balanced.” “And I think the secret is that the bishop and knight are worth three points each but have such different powers,” Hassabis continued. “All the creative tension comes when you swap the bishop for the knight in certain positions. This intrigued him. He had never thought of that ... We secured our meeting.”

I am learning to play chess with Sophia. The game does not yet interest nor hold my attention. But there's something about chess that is important. Just as golf is important.

Sophia has advanced from knowing all the pieces and how they move, to opening gambits. She is beginning to understand the importance of controlling the middle four squares on the chess board. 

The Queen's Gambit

From wiki:

The Queen's Gambit is a 2020 American coming-of-age period drama streaming television miniseries based on Walter Tevis's 1983 novel of the same name. 
It was created for Netflix by Scott Frank and Allan Scott, and written and directed by the former. 
Beginning mid-1950s and proceeding into the 1960s, the story is about an orphaned chess prodigy on her rise to becoming the world's greatest chess player while struggling with emotional problems and drug and alcohol dependency. 
The Queen's Gambit was released on October 23, 2020
After four weeks of viewing it became Netflix's most-watched scripted miniseries. 
It has received critical acclaim for Anya Taylor-Joy's performance as Beth Harmon as well as for the cinematography and production values. It has also received a positive response from the chess community and is credited with spurring a resurgence of public interest in the game.

Ten Best Opening Moves

In reverse order, #10 to #1. The Queen's gambit is #1. 

Four Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- A Day That Lives In Infamy -- December 7, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1655645339

Four wells coming off the confidential list --

Monday, December 7: 11 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 732 for the year

  • None.

Sunday, December 6: 11 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 732 for the year

  • 37463, loc/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-2H, Phelps Bay,

Saturday, December 5: 10 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 731 for the year

  • 37462, loc/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-1H, Phelps Bay,
  • 37425, loc/NC, Slawson, Orca Federal 5-23-26TFH, Big Bend,
  • 36533, drl/A, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-155-94-3526H-11, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 45K 10/20;

RBN Energy: Pembina follows midstream expansion spree with financial discipline

To succeed over the long term in the music business, professional sports, or the midstream sector, you need to learn from your successes and failures, and — most important — continue adapting and evolving. For many North American midstreamers, a key to success has been a thoughtful combination of expansion and diversification, plus an affinity for financial discipline, especially when the broader energy industry is going through tough, uncertain times. A prime example of that strategy is Canadian midstreamer Pembina Pipeline Corp., which after C$14 billion in acquisitions over the last four years is instituting a more cautious approach to new investment that’s largely based on self-funding and a new, more rigorous return criteria for new projects. Today, we preview our new Spotlight report, which focuses on the risks and rewards of Pembina’s new strategy.