Friday, March 26, 2021

"Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" -- March 26, 2021

 Two cases from the April, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, link here:

  • 28758, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, eleven wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 29/32-153-93; McKenzie, Mountrail counties;
  • 28759, CLR, Chimney Butte,-Bakken, sixteen wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 29/32-146-95 and section 5/8-145-95; Dunn County;

Case 28758: CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, eleven wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 29/32-153-93; McKenzie, Mountrail counties; existing wells, locations in this drilling unit:

  • 22817, 439, CLR, Harms 2-32H, Elm Tree, t8/13; cum 425K 1/21;
  • 22818, 706, CLR, Harms 1-32H, Elm Tree, t12/13; cum 373K 1/21;
  • 37989, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 17-33H1, Antelope oil field;
  • 37988, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope oil field;

Case 28759: CLR, Chimney Butte,-Bakken, sixteen wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 29/32-146-95 and section 5/8-145-95; Dunn County; existing wells in this drilling unit:

  • 17884, 147, CLR, Bice 2-29H, Chimney Butte, t1/10; cum 440K 1/21;
  • 16943, 516, CLR, Bice 1-29H, Chimney Butte, t5/08; cum 200K 1/21;
  • 31511, 439, CLR, Dolezal 5-5H, Chimney Butte, t1/18; cum 182K 1/21;
  • 31512, 307, CLR, Dolezal 6-5H1, Chimney Butte, t1/18; cum 147K 1/21;
  • 24835, 1,473, CLR, Bice Federal 3-32H, Chimney Butte, t12/13; cum 292K 1/21;
  • 24836, 416, CLR, Bice Federal 4-32H1, Chimney Butte, t12/13; cum 210K 1/21;
  • 24839, 758, CLR, Dolezal 3-5H, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum 286K 1/21;
  • 24841, 954, CLR, Dolezal 4-5H1, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum 280K 1/21;
  • 19728, 549, CLR, Dolezal 2-5H, Chimney Butte, t5/11; cum 297K 1/21;
  • 17372, IA/426, CLR, Dolezal 1-5H, Chimney Butte, t9/09; cum 202K 1/20;
  • 31510, 760, CLR, Bice 5-32H, Chimney Butte, t8/16; cum 219K 1/21;
  • 31509, 306, CLR, Bice 6-32H1, Chimney Butte, t8/16; cum 110K 1/21;

Week 12: March 21, 2021 -- March 27, 2021

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's Top North Dakota energy stories:

  • Quick connect
  • ND Senate soundly defeats plan to raise gasoline tax by three cents

Operators:

Operations:

Wells:

Fracking:

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Geoff Simon's Factoid Of The Week -- March 26, 2021

The Dakota Access Pipeline has not impacted groundwater in any of the four states where it is located since going into service in June 2017. It crosses under the Missouri River at a minimum depth of 95 feet below the riverbed. The disputed area between Morton and Emmons County that could potentially shut down the entire length of the 1,172 mile pipeline is just over 1,000 feet of the path, and is controlled by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

MRO With Three New Permits; XTO Renews Five Permits; And Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- March 26, 2021

Active rigs:

$60.97
3/26/202103/26/202003/26/201903/26/201803/26/2017
Active Rigs1448685949

Three new permits, #38225 - #38227, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Four Bears (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has permits for three wells, the Foolish Bear USA, the Coleman USA, and the Herzig USA, which will be sited in SENW 17-152-93;
    • they will be sited between 1441' and 1484' FNL and between 1910' and 1843' FWL

Five permits renewed:

  • XTO: four Kenneth permits in Williams County, and one Johnsrud permit in McKenzie County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37512, DUC/NC, Hess, EN-Vachal LLLP-LE-154-94-2028H-1, Alkali Creek, produced 11K over 8 days;
  • 37509, DUC/NC, Hess, EN-Vachal LLLP-154-94-2028H-4, Alkali Creek, no production data;

It Doesn't Take Much To Move The Price Of Oil -- March 26, 2021

Link here.

WTI:

  • trading up 3.8%
  • trading up $2.21
  • trading at $60.77

Brent: $64.41; UK says it is considering a re-look at drilling in the North Sea after first suggesting they were done with that.

OPEC basket: $61.63. Saudi Arabia can't "make it" on $60-oil. 

Egypt: Suez ship will be "freed" over the weekend, according to "Egypt." Link here. So, we have NASCAR, March Madness, PGA (golf), and now, the "ship." Time to run over to Tom Thumb (neighborhood grocer) to buy a 12-package box of movie butter popcorn.  

Global economy -- imagine when "everything" opens up. World trade volumes surged in January, 2021, up by almost 6% compared with the same month one year earlier, erasing losses during the pandemic and surpassing the previous peak in October, 2018, before the intensification of the US / China trade war.

Market today: Dow surged in last thirty minutes on a Friday afternoon. YOLO. But more: FOMO. Even AAPL, negative all day, turned positive at end of day, in the last half hour. Whoo-hoo.

Some initial thoughts:

  • NASDAQ trading 8% below all-time high. We talked about this earlier.
    • AAPL, for example, needs to gain 25 points to get back to its all-time high. From 120 (today) to 145, that would require a 21% jump from 120.
  • The ViacomCBS/Discovery debacle today was a wake-up call for companies like Apple, Inc.
  • NIO: will suspend production due to chip shortage; shares trade down 5%.
  • UNP: hit a new all-time high; up 3.25%; up $7/share; and trading at $223. 
  • QCOM: up 4.49%; up almost $6 / share; trading at $133.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

You can retire on dividends. Link here. You may be able to get past the paywall via google.

April, 2021, NDIC Hearing Dockets Have Posted

Link here

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.


Wednesday, April 21, 2021
Four Pages

These are cases, not permits:

  • 28733, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Bay-Bakken, flaring, McKenzie;
  • 28734, CLR, revoke a Hess AN-Norby-LE permit, file # 38176, McKenzie County:
  • 28735, Petro-Hunt, pooling, Little Knife-Bakken, Billings County;
  • 28736, Hess, commingling;
  • 28737, Hess, commingling;
  • 28738, Hess, commingling;
  • 28739, Hess, commingling;

Tuesday, April 22, 2021
Eight Pages

These are cases not permits:

  • 28740, Enerplus, Antelope-Sanish, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; McKenzie County;
  • 28741, Enerplus, Spotted Horn-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well in each; McKenzie County;
  • 28742, RimRock Oil & Gas, Heart Butte-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; eight wells; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Mountrail, Dunn counties;
  • 28743, EOG, Kittleson Slough-Bakken; i) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; multiple wells; ii) establish an overlapping 5120-acre unit; twowells; Mountrail County;
  • 28744, EOG, Ross-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, multiple wells; Mountrail County;
  • 28745, CLR, Corral Crrek and/or Jim Creek-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well on each unit; Dunn County;
  • 28746, CLR, Jim Creek and/or Chimney Butte-Bakken; i) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Dunn County;
  • 28747, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken and/or Antelope-Sanish; i) establish an overlapping 1280-acre unit; two wells; ii) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells; McKenzie, Mountrail counties;
  • 28748, Cobra Oil & Gas, Flat Top Butte Field, transfer the confiscated Beicegel Creek 27-42 well, file # 8468, back to Cobra as operator so the well may be recompleted in the Flat Top Butte-Bakken, the Flat Top Butte-Birdbear Formation, McKenzie County;
  • 28749, Resonance Exploration, West Roth-Madison, establish a 640-acre unit, to drill a multi-lateral horizontal well not less than 330 feet to the boundary of each spacing unit; Bottineau County
  • 28750, Resonance Exploration, South Westhope-Spearfish / Charles pool, establish a 400-acre unit, drill a multi-lateral horizontal wells not less than 330 feet to the boundary of the spacing unit; Bottineau County
  • 28751, CLR, pooling;
  • 28752, CLR, pooling;
  • 28753, CLR, pooling;
  • 28754, CLR, pooling;
  • 28755, CLR, pooling;
  • 28756, CLR, pooling;
  • 28757, CLR, pooling;
  • 28758, CLR, Elm Tree-Bakken, eleven wells on an existing 1280-acre unit, sections 29/32-153-93; McKenzie, Mountrail counties;
  • 28759, CLR, Chimney Butte,-Bakken, sixteen wells on an existing 2560-acre unit, sections 29/32-146-95 and section 5/8-145-95; Dunn County;
  • 28760, CLR, commingling;
  • 28761, Ovintive Production Inc, Westberg-Bakken, two wells, McKenzie County;
  • 28762, North Range Resources, SWD well;

Off The Net For Awhile -- March 26, 2021

Memo to self: when I get back, this link first. And here it is.

The Market -- Idle Rambling -- March 26, 2021

Note: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Earlier I posted:

Meme: Wall Street not keeping up with the global economy or the US economy:

  • the US market's three major indices keep hitting new highs; and, yet,
  • many blue chip, widely held stocks are still 5 - 20% below their 104-week highs; in other words,
  • there is a lot of room for some of these stocks to move (on the upside);
mom-and-pop players at home are seeing better gains in their professionally-managed accounts than in their personally-managed accounts -- this is based on a survey of two -- me vs my wife.

Let's see some examples. Ticker symbol:  52-week high / trading today / percent yet to run to reach 52-week high (numbers may be rounded):

  • BRK-B: 268 / 253 / 6%;
  • BA: 278 / 247 / 13%;
  • V: 228 / 208 / 10%;
  • UNP: 221 / 212 / 4%;
  • CVX: 113 / 105 / 8%;
  • T: 33 / 30 / 10%;
  • DFS: 104 / 96 / 8%;
  • BAC: 40 / 38 / 5%;
  • AAPL: 145 / 120 / 21%

AAPL: tea leaves -- AAPL will announce a sizeable dividend increase before the end of May, 2021.

Idle Chatter On Friday Morning -- March 26, 2021

It's a slow Friday. 

Two things. 

First, just a reminder.

When I refer to the "Bakken" or the "Bakken revolution" as a metonym, it refers to the tight oil / unconventional drilling / shale drilling in the United States.

The "Bakken," based on context, generally refers to any one of the three:

  • the footprint and geology of the Bakken play in the Williston Basin;
  • the science and technology in exploring and producing in the Bakken; and,
  • the interplay of operators, mineral owners, and surface owners in North Dakota.

But in a very broad sense, to repeat, the "Bakken" or the "Bakken revolution" as a metonym, it refers to the tight oil / unconventional drilling / shale drilling in the United States.

That's the "Bakken" I am thinking of when I wrote posted this earlier:

Don't underestimate the Bakken: link here.

  • so much for that promise to focus on free cash; slow production growth;
  • from the linked site:
U.S. oil drillers are no longer sitting in the trenches, waiting for the pandemic storm to pass. They are once again in growth mode, according to the first-quarter energy survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve. As oil prices rebound, activity in the oil patch is expanding, respondents to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey said. And it is expanding strongly: from a reading of just 18.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, the business activity index of the survey soared as high as 53.6 over the first quarter of this year. 
The data supports evidence from other agencies: the number of active drilling rigs is steadily rising. So is production: according to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration, oil production last week averaged 11 million bpd. That’s still 2 million bpd below the average for this time last year, but above the average for a week earlier and the four-week average for the period ending on March 19. 
The signs seem to point to what OPEC feared the most: U.S. shale is returning. Capital spending is returning, the Dallas Fed reported in its survey. From an index of 12.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, it has now gone up to 31. What’s more, the industry is upbeat about the future, too, planning to boost spending further next year.

I am not referring simply to North Dakota. I am referring to the entire unconventional oil and gas industry in the United States. 

Second.

The stories coming out of the Permian are absolutely mind-boggling. That also goes for the Appalachian. The most recent reminder: Warren Buffett's plan for new natural gas plants in Texas. A few days before that, the stories on the new LNG export terminals along the Texas / Louisiana coast. I get the feeling that Americans, in general, have no idea what an energy powerhouse the US is. 

I am absolutely convinced Saudi oil exports could go to zero and the US could fill the void. That's a bit of hyperbole but I don't think I'm far off. Look at the numbers reported by Reuters for Saudi export data in December, 2020. In fact, let me re-phrase that. I am absolutely convinced Saudi oil exports could go to zero and North America could fill the void. 

The fact that the Biden administration is already backtracking on plans to shut down the US oil and gas industry is a reminder how important that sector is to the US. It is pretty funny: one of the many big stories that came out of the Texas Deep Freeze this past February: a huge national shortage of plastic. LOL. Texas oil fields shut down for one week; refiners shut down for one month; and the plastics industry is severely affected.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI In Trading Range -- March 26, 2021

Meme: Wall Street not keeping up with the global economy or the US economy:

  • world trade volumes surged in January, 2021; graphic pending --
  • what I find most remarkable:
    • the US market's three major indices keep hitting new highs; and, yet,
    • many blue chip, widely held stocks are still 30% below their 104-week highs; in other words,
    • there is a lot of room for some of these stocks to move (on the upside);
  • it's a stock-picker's market; the professionals are in the driver's seat;
    • mom-and-pop players at home are seeing better gains in their professionally-managed accounts than in their personally-managed accounts -- this is based on a survey of two -- me vs my wife.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Don't underestimate the Bakken: link here.

  • so much for that promise to focus on free cash; slow production growth;
  • from the linked site:

U.S. oil drillers are no longer sitting in the trenches, waiting for the pandemic storm to pass. They are once again in growth mode, according to the first-quarter energy survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve. As oil prices rebound, activity in the oil patch is expanding, respondents to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey said. And it is expanding strongly: from a reading of just 18.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, the business activity index of the survey soared as high as 53.6 over the first quarter of this year. 
The data supports evidence from other agencies: the number of active drilling rigs is steadily rising. So is production: according to the latest weekly report by the Energy Information Administration, oil production last week averaged 11 million bpd. That’s still 2 million bpd below the average for this time last year, but above the average for a week earlier and the four-week average for the period ending on March 19. 
The signs seem to point to what OPEC feared the most: U.S. shale is returning. Capital spending is returning, the Dallas Fed reported in its survey. From an index of 12.5 for the fourth quarter of 2020, it has now gone up to 31. What’s more, the industry is upbeat about the future, too, planning to boost spending further next year.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$60.54
3/26/202103/26/202003/26/201903/26/201803/26/2017
Active Rigs1448685949

No wells coming off the confidential list this next week

RBN Energy: will northeast gas outflows to the Gulf/southeast max out capacity this spring? Part 4.

Natural gas pipeline takeaway constraints out of the Northeast worsened in 2020 despite producer cutbacks in the region as high storage levels and weaker demand led to record volumes of Appalachian gas supplies needing to find outlets in other regions last fall. This year, storage levels are lower and could absorb more of the surpluses during injection season. However, Appalachian gas production so far in 2021 has been averaging higher than last year; and, gas prices are higher year-on-year, reducing prospects for the kinds of producer curtailments we saw last year. As for the “pull” from downstream demand, LNG exports along the Gulf Coast aren’t expected to experience the slump from cargo cancellations seen last summer. In other words, Appalachia’s outbound flows are likely to be robust, setting the stage for takeaway constraints and weak prices, particularly during the spring and fall shoulder seasons. How much outbound capacity currently exists and how much room is there for growth? Today, we continue our series on the Northeast gas market with an update on Appalachia’s southbound takeaway capacity and outflows, starting with a detailed look at the gas moving to the Southeast and to the Gulf Coast.

This is Part 4 of the blog series, aimed at breaking down the fundamentals trends in the constantly evolving Appalachian gas market. In Part 1, we looked at the Northeast gas supply-demand trends that contributed to increased takeaway constraints and weaker Appalachia basis differentials in 2020, namely milder winter demand in early 2020 that led to record high storage levels, despite low rig counts and producer cutbacks in the spring and fall. Then, in Part 2, we delved deeper into Appalachian production and the disparate patterns emerging in each of the sub-regions. We shifted our focus to regional outflows and takeaway capacity utilization in Part 3, starting with a look at the record outflows during Winter Storm Uri last month. Now spring is around the corner and Northeast demand will take a big step back as heating demand fades, leaving the region swimming in surplus gas. How much exit capacity is there for that surplus gas? To understand that, we first need to take stock of existing capacity and flows.