Friday, May 17, 2013

Time Constraints For Blogging For Next Couple Of Months

During my move, I will not have internet at home.

In addition, during the foreseeable future, I will be on the road and my daily schedule will be erratic.

But it looks like I will settle into two time periods of blogging and being on the net:
  • mornings, between 7:00 am and 10:00 am
  • evenings, around 7:30 pm to 10:00 pm
So, if you've read the blog in the morning, don't "waste" time checking throughout the day.

Hopefully, I will be back to 24/7 blogging (erratic of course, not continuous) starting in late July.

No television at home either, but will see some when I travel.

This Whole Thing Gets More Bizarre Every Day

The Rapid City Journal is reporting:
Leaders from 11 Native American tribes from South Dakota to Oklahoma walked out of a meeting with federal officials in Rapid City on Thursday to protest the proposed Keystone XL pipeline.
They then issued a direct challenge to President Obama: Talk to us directly or not at all.
The meeting was arranged amid mounting tension in Indian Country about the pipeline, which would pump oil from Canadian tar sands to Texas refineries. Although the pipeline would not go directly through any Native American reservation, tribes in proximity to its proposed path say it will encroach on their traditional lands and that the project is fraught with environmental risks.
To help ease those concerns, representatives from the Department of State, which is deciding whether to approve the pipeline, agreed to meet with tribal leaders on Thursday morning in the Hilton Garden Inn in Rapid City.
But before the talks could begin, tribal leaders walked out, upset that the government had sent what they considered low-level officials. In a press conference held by the tribes after the walkout, leaders took turns issuing angry statements against the project and the Obama administration.
"I will only meet with President Obama," said Bryan Brewer, president of the Oglala Sioux Tribe, who added that was the only true way to conduct nation-to-nation talks.
Yes, nation-to-nation talks. That's why they sent John Kerry to Israel.

I suppose they could the most culturally-sensitive person on Obama's staff to meet with the Native Americans: Joe Biden. After all, he could become president a lot sooner than 2017.

I Am Impressed: Tesla

Bloomberg is reporting:
Tesla Motors Inc.’s Elon Musk is poised to follow in the footsteps of Lee Iacocca, who 30 years ago as Chrysler Corp.’s chief executive officer retired a controversial U.S. obligation years early.
Musk, Tesla’s CEO and co-founder, expanded the size of equity and debt offerings by 30 percent to as much as $1.08 billion to boost the company’s cash reserves and repay a $465 million Energy Department loan nine years ahead of schedule. Iacocca in 1983 paid Chrysler’s U.S. loan guarantees seven years early.

Demand For Electricity In The Williston Basin Will More Than Triple In Less Than Two Decades; Your Daughter Born Today May Some Day Be Working For MDU As A Summer Job

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
A study last year predicted that the 43-county Williston Basin, encompassing much of western North Dakota, eastern Montana and northwestern South Dakota, will see demand for electricity grow by more than 2,500 megawatts by 2032, from 1,209 megawatts in 2012 to 3,721 megawatts.
Utilities are responding by building more peaking plants (5-megawatt natural gas peaking plants) and large power-producing plants:
Montana-Dakota Utilities is adding an 88-megawatt natural gas unit to its Heskitt power station near Mandan, and has told regulators it likely will further expand the plant, with an application expected later this year or early next year.
Now, going back to the lead, the data points:
  • current demand: 1,200 MW
  • demand in 2032: 3,721 MW
Two thoughts:
  • huge growth
  • look how far out they are going: 2032 -- the tea leaves suggest the Bakken will be around for awhile

Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Get Ready For Some Serious EOR

Active rigs: 189

Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: Emerald Oil (3), EOG, Hunt, Petro-Hunt
  • Fields: Boxcar Butte (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail, Sather Lake (McKenzie), Stockyard Creek (Williams)
  • Comments: They never seem to run out of drilling locations in Stockyard Creek, east of Williston.
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Six pages of operator transfer; averaging about 40 wells/page, that would be about 250 wells being transferred from BR to Denbury. With the exception of three wells, they all have file numbers from 13XXX to 16XXX. It looks like there were seven (7) salt water disposal wells. Denbury is known for EOR. Looking at four random wells: Red River wells, Cedar Hills oil field, Bowman County (all wells were, in fact, in Bowman County).

Minnesota: Stay For The Fishing!

I wasn't going to post this story (from Fargo-Inforum) until I read this:
The first billboard went up Thursday along Interstate 94 in Moorhead, Minn., which is across the Red River from Fargo. It reads “NORTH DAKOTA” on the top line and “OPEN FOR BUSINESS” on the bottom.
Moorhead City Council member Mark Hintermeyer says he considers the message unproductive and confrontational and wants the sign taken down immediately.
North Dakota Chamber President Andy Peterson says one of the objectives of the campaign is to help Minnesota improve its business environment. He says that would benefit the entire region. 
Wow, that Moorhead City Council member "Mark" certainly has a thin skin. He needs to put up his own Minnesota sign, something like "Minnesota: Stay For The Fishing."

US Allows LNG To Be Exported To Countries That Do Not Have A Free Trade Agreement With The US; XOM/Qatar Moving On Golden Pass LNG Export

Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
The US Department of Energy conditionally approved Freeport LNG’s request to export domestically produced LNG from its Quintana Island, Tex., terminal to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the US.
The conditional authorization allows exports up to 1.4 bcfd for 20 years and is subject to environmental review and final regulatory approval. DOE approved Freeport’s application to export LNG from the terminal to FTA countries on Feb. 11.
The May 17 announcement was DOE’s second LNG export approval to non-FTA countries; its first for as much as 2.2 bcfd of gas came earlier in May to the Sabine Pass terminal in Cameron Parish, LA.
Several oil and gas associations applauded DOE’s move. “One export permit is a step in the right direction, but many more job and revenue creating projects are still waiting for approval,” said Erik Milito, the American Petroleum Institute’s upstream and industry operation’s director.
Reuters also reports the story. Reuters says the amount of natural gas exported will equal about 2% of total US production (at current levels). Two percent. Remarkable. Lots of questions remain.

The article also notes that there is a small window to get these export facilities built: other countries, like Australia are moving very fast on their own export facilities.

Is that cool or what, though, exporting natural gas?

Meanwhile, remember Golden Pass? Exxon and Qatar?

The joint venture is advancing its permit application for LNG export.

The Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
Golden Pass Products LLC has taken its first step toward seeking US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission permission to build the 15.6 million-tonne/year LNG export terminal it plans at Sabine Pass, TX.

The company, a venture of Qatar Petroleum International and ExxonMobil Corp., which operates an LNG import facility at Sabine Pass, ....
It has received Department of Energy approval to export LNG to countries with which the US has free-trade agreements and earlier this month announced signing of a commercial framework agreement for sale of all the proposed facility’s output.

Is that cool or what?

Who's Sorry Now?


Later, 8:46 pm: I stand corrected. According to the president's press secretary, Art Carney, these are not scandals. Can't you just hear President Obama at the head of the table, in his very studied, very lawyerly voice, reminding his cabinet members that "these are not scandals? This is simply American democracy at its very best." This is a page out of the Bill Clinton playbook: "I did not have ... it depends on what the definition of 'is' is." 

Original Post

I am not posting this because of this scandal-ridden presidency.

I am posting this because of the fun one has with the "cat-and mouse" exercise over at YouTube. Connie Francis' "Who's Sorry Now" is always removed by YouTube for copyright reasons, even though "fair use" should allow it to be posted. But it keeps getting removed. That's why my "Who's Sorry Now" is sometimes done by others.

But as soon as YouTube brings a video down, someone else re-posts another Connie Francis "Who's Sorry Now" video.

This is the "real deal" and was posted just one week ago, and has all of 389 views. Before it was taken down, it had hundreds of thousands of views. We'll see how long this one lasts.

So, for this scandal-ridden presidency:

Who's Sorry Now, Connie Francis

Not Enough Secret Service Hours For Tours Of White House For Common Folks; Plenty Of Secret Service Hours For Celebrity Entertainment Events After Hours; IRS Scandal; The "S" In IRS? Scandal

White House tours canceled because 2% sequester cut would result in furloughing Secret Service if tours were "business as usual."

However, there in no shortage of Secret Service personnel to handle Michelle's monthly celebrity entertainment events and and countless vacations.

The hypocrisy.

I assume a president would executive experience in the private sector would have directed his chief of staff to find some way to keep the White House tours. Didn't someone say that even during the depths of the Civil War, the "people's house" was open to the public? I could be wrong. Whatever.


The IRS commissioner knew the scandal had been going for a full year.

I blame the media as much as anyone.

The media is "lazy" and in "love" with the president. They take his speeches and Art Carney's press releases, and simple re-report them. I have never seen a lazier White House press.

Hero worship.

Montana's senator Max Baucus weighs in. The Washington Examiner reports:
Senior Democratic Sen. Max Baucus, who recently slapped Obamacare as a "train wreck," believes that the IRS scandal is just beginning and that "a lot more" damaging information will be revealed, likely at congressional hearings.
"I have a hunch that a lot more is going to come out, frankly," Baucus, whose pending retirement seems to have freed him up to speak bluntly, told Bloomberg Government's "Capitol Gains" TV show.
"It's broader than the current focus. And I think it's important that we have the hearings, and I think that will encourage other information to come out that has not yet come out. I suspect that we will learn more in the next several days, maybe the next couple three weeks which adds more context to all of this," added Baucus, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.

Nothing To Do With The Bakken, But Of Interest To Some -- Israel Continues To Find More Natural Gas

Rigzone is reporting that Israel has found a third field of natural gas not previously part of the two off-shore fields that have recently been found:
The Karish field, off Israel's northern coast, contains "significant signs of natural gas," according to a statement from Delek Group Ltd., whose subsidiaries also control the large Tamar and Leviathan fields along with U.S.-based Noble Energy Inc.

Although it did not say how much natural gas may be in the Karish field, an earlier geological report estimated that the field could contain up to 2 trillion cubic feet. Delek said it would continue tests at Karish.

A growing number of recent gas discoveries have made energy independence a possibility in the near future for Israel, according to the energy ministry. The discoveries have also pushed up the value of the shekel against the dollar as local companies no longer need as much foreign currency to purchase energy from abroad, and the prospect of gas exports promises to bring more money into the economy...

That Was Easy: Initial Production Numbers Posted For The Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today

Link here.

One well was placed on DRL status.

The other well is operated by a company with financial issues.

A Most Interesting Convergence of Huge Events: US LNG Exports And Panama Canal Expansion

Rigzone is reporting:
Despite the lingering LNG export unknowns in North America, LNG shipments from the region coupled with the expansion of the Panama Canal could exemplify serendipity on a grand scale.

“The timing and convergence of two unrelated events – the Panama Canal expansion and the unlocking of North American shale resources – will have extraordinarily positive affects for U.S. producers and LNG terminal owners and their counterparts in Asia who purchase LNG," predicted John Hritcko, Jr., Houston-based director of LNG Sales for Wison Offshore & Marine (USA), Inc.
Great article.  Funny how things work out.

EOR Could Boost US Oil Production By 4 Million Bbls Oil Per Day For 50 Years

A nice article on EOR. Reuters is reporting:
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques could boost U.S. domestic oil production by 4 million barrels per day for 50 years, while storing all the emissions from 93 large coal-fired power plants, at a price of just $85 per barrel, according to an estimate published by the U.S. Department of Energy.

By injecting carbon dioxide (CO2) into depleted oil fields, the United States could recover an extra 67 billion barrels of oil and simultaneously trap 18 billion tonnes of manmade greenhouse gases safely underground.
Increasing production by 4 million barrels per day for 50 years is not trivial. 

In-Depth Article On BLM's Fracking Rules -- Entering 30-Day Comment Period

Oil and Gas Journal also reports

Rigzone is reporting:
An updated draft rule that would empower the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to regulate hydraulic fracturing on U.S. federal and Indian lands will be made available for an additional 30-day public comment period before the rule is finalized.

BLM, an agency within the Department of Interior (DOI), initiated plans to update federal hydraulic fracturing regulations in late November 2010, when federal and state officials and NGO representatives discussed the need to modernize hydraulic fracturing regulations. Using information gathered from eight public forums across the United States and consultation with tribal officials, an initial proposed rule was written and released in May 2012, said DOI Deputy Secretary David J. Hayes during the conference call.

The updated proposed rule takes into account the more than 177,000 comments gathered in a 120-day comment period last year from the oil and gas industry, tribal officials, and other stakeholders. In January, BLM said it would publish an updated proposal to maximize flexibility, facilitate coordination with state practices and ensure operators utilize best practices on public lands.
That has been published and now the 30-day comment period begins.

Of the three rules, this has huge implications:
"Although the BLM is not proposing a material change in the provision that allows hydraulic fracturing flowback fluids to be stored either in tanks on in lined pits, the BLM is seeking comments on the costs and benefits of requiring flowback fluids to be stored in closed tanks," DOI said in a statement Thursday.
The updated rule is more reasonable than the original proposal, indicating that BLM actually listened to the industry and responded to most of their comments in a positive way, such as allowing the disclosure of hydraulic fracturing chemicals through Fracfocus, said Larry W. Nettles, Energy industry Group Leader with Houston-based law firm Vinson & Elkins in an interview with Rigzone.
If the BLM sticks to their word, this is encouraging:
States can also apply to BLM to administer permits on public lands within their border if they can show their requirements are as strict or stricter than BLM requirements, Nettles said. This idea was initially floated by former Massachusetts governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney last year.
The rules certainly suggest that the administration has accepted fracking. 

Analysts Significantly Underestimated the Potential of the Shale Revolution

RBN Energy: how did the 2011 forecasts pan out for the Bakken?
As you can imagine, looking back at old forecasts is not a popular game among consultants to the industry – or for that matter anyone who makes predictions for a living. While researching this blog it didn’t take us long to find the chart below for example from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term economic outlook back in June 2011. They were predicting that US crude oil production in 2012 would fall by 100,000 bopd. As it turned out, US crude oil production increased by nearly 1.1 million bopd during 2012. Oops!
A great article on how shale production developed over the past few years.

Initial Production For Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today

23658, 119, GMX Resources, Heiser 11-2-1H, Beicegel Creek, t2/13; cum 18K 3/13;
24042, drl, SM Energy, Didrick 4-27HB, Siverston,


23658, see above, GMX Resources, Heiser 11-2-1H, Beicegel Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold