Analysts Significantly Underestimated the Potential of the Shale Revolution

RBN Energy: how did the 2011 forecasts pan out for the Bakken?

As you can imagine, looking back at old forecasts is not a popular game among consultants to the industry – or for that matter anyone who makes predictions for a living. While researching this blog it didn’t take us long to find the chart below for example from the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) short-term economic outlook back in June 2011. They were predicting that US crude oil production in 2012 would fall by 100,000 bopd. As it turned out, US crude oil production increased by nearly 1.1 million bopd during 2012. Oops!

A great article on how shale production developed over the past few years.