Saturday, May 25, 2019

Fiftieth Anniversary Of 1969? -- Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken

Wow, wow, wow.

I've always said that 1969 was the best year for music. It now appears that the movie that will become the most-talked-about-movie of 2019, will be a movie set in 1969, Quentin Tarantino's Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. I don't know; we will have to wait until July, 2019.

What We Know So Far
Teaser #1
Teaser #2
The music should be great. I'm not sure if I will be able to handle:
  • one of the themes;
  • some of the language;
  • all of the violence;
Whether I see it in the theater or wait for the DVD is still yet to be determined.

Breakeven Prices -- What They Mean For Shale -- Added To Sidebar At The Right -- May 25, 2019

At the sidebar at the right, I have added this link to "Commentaries": breakeven prices -- what they mean for shale.

OPEC vs Shale
Battle For Oil Price Supremacy

Link to Wall Street Journal.

Oil prices are in a tug of war between the huge increase in U.S. shale production and the cartel’s attempts to slash its own output.

“There’s a certain element of confidence that this rally has further to go,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy for BNP Paribas -- published April 18, 2019.

So, the analyst suggested that the run-up in oil prices leading up to April 18, 2019, suggested that the run-up had legs.

Recent WTI futures:
  • April, 2019: $63.91 -- the recent high
  • May 20, 2019: $63.10
  • May 21, 2019: $62.99
  • May 22, 2019: $61.42
  • May 23, 2019: $57.91
  • May 24, 2019: $58.63
From mid-April to late-May, the price of crude oil fell pretty quickly. So much for "confidence that this rally has further to go." Unless, of course, anything above $50 is considered a rally. I don't know. But US shale will survive at $40 and thrive at $60. Can't say the same for OPEC.

From the linked WSJ article, two graphics:

I think the big question to be answered by historians: what happened in 2016 - 2017 that propelled US crude oil production? And then again, in late 2018?

I don't agree with the premise of the article or much of what the writers opine, but I will post some data points from the article of interest:
  • U.S. oil shipments should surge in the second half of the year (I would love to see the writers' definition of surge; it seems US oil exports are already surging)
  • Shale taps can be turned on and off faster than other producers, which has made it more difficult for OPEC to influence the oil market
  • “It’s much more short cycle and responsive to price than the vast majority of global production, and it now represents more than 10% of global supply,” according to one analyst
  • The EIA expects the U.S. to become a net exporter of energy by 2020, cementing the phenomenal transformation shale has created. The U.S. was briefly, for a week in November, a net exporter of crude and refined fuels for the first time in decades.
Global inventories:
  • running about 3.0 billion bbls
  • historical, and more than adequate: about 2.75 bbls
  • at 3.0 billion bbls "today," not as high as the peak of 3.1 billion bbls back in late 2016 (all-time record?)
  • forecast: by end of this year (2019): 2.915 billion bbls (I love that false precision: 2,915,000,000 bbls -- which suggests analysts can get estimate within one million [or more likely] five million bbls [0.17%] [North Dakota produces more than 5 million bbls each week] [global production is about 100 million bbls/day]
Price of oil required by selected countries to balance their budget:
  • Iran: $90/bbl
  • Saudi Arabia: $73 (considering that just a few years ago we were told that SA needed $100-oil to balance their budget, this number seems somewhat questionable) (prices are currently below $73)
  • UAE: $65
  • Iraq: $60
For the US, according to Wood Mackenzie:
  • US oil to remain profitable: $53/bbl
  • to sustain growth in excess of 0.5 million bopd: $60
And then remember Art Berman's "It's not a revolution, it's a retirement party."

I guess folks came out of retirement. Now they're talking about a second revolution in US shale:
The second wave of the U.S. shale revolution is coming,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, at the launch of its Oil 2019 report in March. He added that the U.S. will account for 70% of the total increase in global production capacity over the next five years.
Earlier I said I do not agree with the thesis of the article. A reader who commented at the linked WSJ article said it very succinctly and much better than I could have said it:
So if I read the article correctly, OPEC is winning if prices remain high, and this somehow implies that US producers are losing?  I don't know about the authors, but in my business if my competitor is cutting back production and allowing me to sell my product at a higher price, I count that as a win.
Yes, as good as the WSJ is supposed to be, sometimes I wonder. 

Again, I cannot stress enough the research article linked at this post.

Global Warming Smacks Denver, Deadwood -- May 25, 2019

Hot in San Antonio, but elsewhere, from iceagenow:

Flashback: our grandchildren will never see snow again -- Patrick Kennedy.

Link here, for the Kennedy klan if they are looking for a spot to ski this summer --

Week 21: May 19, 2019 -- May 25, 2019

Top  international non-energy story: Brexit breaks.

Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story: Wall Street and Main Street diverge.

Top national energy story:
Top ND non-energy story: still no new funds for schools in North Dakota's wealthiest county

Top ND energy story:
Top ND energy stories, Geoff Simon:
  • Dickinson firm still in the hunt to build the "border wall"
  • Governor requests presidential disaster declaration due to widespread flooding
  • ND tax commissioner anticipates oil revenue could top $5 billion in the coming biennium (ND works off a two-year budget)
Bakken 101

Banks Slash 2Q19 GDP Forecast To 1% -- May 25, 2019

Polls at the sidebar.

Miami Vice

Weekend Notes, Part 1, Nothing About The Bakken -- May 25, 2019

Blogging for the next two days, Saturday and Sunday will be "disjointed." Top stories for the week will be delayed.

The granddaughters are busy, busy, busy this weekend.

Sophia is home alone with Grammy, in Grapevine, TX -- Dallas/Ft Worth area.

The middle granddaughter, is with her parents in Denver, participating in a national soccer tournament. Friday night her team had their first game for the three-day tournament. Olivia is not a striker. She plays mid-field. As a midfielder and a non-striker it is not expected that she should take shots on goal. Last night, she scored the team's first goal, relatively early in the first half. Her team won: 1 - 0.

The oldest granddaughter is with me in San Antonio for a state-wide water polo tournament.

It was a road trip from DFW (Grapevine, TX) to San Antonio.

Earlier this week it was reported that based on raw numbers, the fastest growing cities for the 12-month period ending July, 2018:
  • Phoenix
  • San Antonio (where we are; where we lived for 13 years)
  • Ft Worth (where we live)
I was excited to see San Antonio again. 

We did NOT take I-35 south from DFW to San Antonio. Traffic is always incredibly heavy on I-35 and this was the beginning of the 3-day weekend.

We took state highway 360 south, west on I-20, and then south on state highways 171, 67, 220, and 281. It took about six hours. Traffic was moderate; roads were great. A little slow getting through the towns along the way but no big deal.

Passing under the interchange between I-20 west and I-35 south: traffic had come to a complete stop. I assume it would take an hour or to make that half-mile transition. It confirmed my decision to avoid I-35 was the best decision. We continued west on I-20 until we got to Highway 171, south to Cleburne.

We arrived on the north side of San Antonio just before dusk. The city has expanded well north of the outer loop (Loop 1604). The amount of road construction was incredible. I've never seen so much construction, but traffic flowed very nicely. Then the eighth wonder of the world: the "1604-281 interchange." Apparently it's been under construction for ten years and it looks like another ten years of construction, not without a lot of controversy. In addition to that project, Highway 281 will be greatly expanded north of "1604." That also looks like a ten-year project.

The construction project is bigger than anything I'm seeing in DFW area now.

San Antonio, on first look, seems more interesting, more exciting than Dallas. It still has a small town feel to it, if that's even possible.
We drove into downtown San Antonio directly after check into our hotel (located at the corner of I-10 and Loop 1604.

The Riverwalk was as busy as ever at 9:00 p.m. Clean, safe, fun.

Quick snack of tapas: mussels for me; chicken quesadillas for Arianna. The mussels were delicious; served in a completely different sauce than I was used to from France and north Texas (LOL).

Highlight of the evening: watching a state trooper pull over a Dodge Charger going about a 100 mph on the the I-10 when we were returning to our hotel. It was pitch black; the Charger passed me on my right; I saw it coming from behind and could see it coming. Crossing four lanes of traffic to the high-speed lane deftly; I was impressed. About 30 seconds down the road, the trooper's lights went on and came up on the Charger. Interestingly, the Charger immediately slowed down but did not come to a stop on the wide shoulder. The duo must have traveled about two miles at relatively slow speed until finally the Dodge pulled off an exit ramp and turned into a parking lot. I was pretty sure the speeder was going to take off again and leading the cop on a wild chase. Did not happen. But it sure took a long time for the Charger to finally come to a stop. 

This morning we drove to the water polo venue. The Dub Farris Athletic Complex may not be the biggest, most impressive such complex in the world, but it must come close. The water polo tournament will be held in the outdoor pool but could be moved indoors with inclement weather (not forecast).

You Belong to the City, Glenn Frey

Permian DUCs -- May 25, 2019

It looks like others have also noted the impact of "inactive wells" and DUCs.

See this link for Bakken data. Data below is for the Permian. 

From twitter yesterday:

Actually, in this small graphic lots of interesting information. Most interesting, the "red queen" phenomenon -- or not!

This has to be extremely concerning for Saudi Arabia.

It is certainly yet another dagger in the coffin of "Peak Oil."

Apparently Not My Imagination -- It Really Was A Cool May In North Texas -- May 25, 2019

But no one is complaining. Summer will come soon enough ... and will be very, very hot. Link here.

Making America Great

In response:
  • Bernie: resist!
  • Buttigieg: change course!
  • Beto: re-set!
  • Biden: what just happened? We need to get back to "normal."
See this post.

From twitter today:

I doubt wind/solar energy pays this well once the turbines are up and running.