Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Native Americans Not Being Particularly Helpful -- Surprising? No -- As Long As Native Americans Play This Game, Geico Will Save You 15% -- March 20, 2018

Link at Bismarck Tribune.
More time is needed to finish additional court-ordered environmental study of the Dakota Access oil pipeline due to difficulties in getting needed information from American Indian tribes fighting the project in court.
The delay won't impact the $3.8 billion pipeline, which has been operating since last June, moving North Dakota oil through South Dakota and Iowa to a shipping point in Illinois. But it will delay resolution of a federal lawsuit that has lingered for nearly two years.
U.S. District Judge James Boasberg last summer ordered the Army Corps of Engineers to further review the pipeline's impact on tribal interests, including how a spill under the Lake Oahe reservoir on the Missouri River in the Dakotas would impact the water supply of the Standing Rock and Cheyenne River Sioux. Those tribes are leading the lawsuit that was filed in July 2016.
The Corps last October told Boasberg it would finish the mandated work by April 2, but the agency late last week informed him that won't happen "as a result of difficulties in obtaining requested information from the plaintiff tribes in a timely manner." Justice Department Attorney Reuben Schifman did not provide a new date, saying it depended on cooperation from the tribes.

Random Look At An Old Oasis Froholm Federal Well With Huge Jump In Production; No Explanation -- March 20, 2018

Link here.

Also, for newbies, this is a good read, this post, with production update for this MRO well that was recently re-fracked.

CLR Soon To Report Newly Fracked Lansing Wells -- 152-99-25, Banks, CLR, Lansing -- March 20, 2018

This is exciting. At least for those with an interest in CLR's Lansing wells in Banks oil field. It looks like the Lansing DUCs are being completed.

The graphic:

The wells:

  • 22155, 553, CLR, Lansing 2-25H, Banks, small jump after coming back online, t5/12; cum 237K 4/20;
  • 19126, 76 (no typo), CLR, Lansing 1-25H, Banks, no jump after coming back online; t11/10; cum 434K 4/20;

  • 31516, 320, CLR, Lansing 5-25H1, Banks, t3/18; cum 145K 4/20;
  • 31517, 2,572, CLR, Lansing 6-25H, Banks, 4 sections, t3/18; cum 308K 4/20;
  • 31518, 1,538, CLR, Lansing 8-25H1, Banks, 4 sections, Three Forks, t3/18; cum 192K 4/20;
  • 31519, 1,535, CLR, Lansing 9-25H, Banks, 4 sections, t3/18; cum 250K 4/20;

  • 27549, 848, CLR, Lansing 4-25AH1, Banks, nice jump after coming back online; t5/15; cum 237K 4/20;
  • 27548, 997, CLR, Lansing 4325AH, Banks, huge jump in production 10/17 before coming offline; t5/15; cum 323K 4/20; was this well re-fracked? According to FracFocus it was not re-fracked:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Making America Great Again -- March 20, 2018

Wow, it never quits. Just a few days ago we talked about a new cracker coming on line --
Chevron Phillips Chemical on Monday announced the startup of its first new U.S. ethane cracker in decades ....
At full capacity, it will produce 1.5 million tons of ethylene a year to turn into pipes, films, containers and other plastic products.
And earlier, ExxonMobil said it planned to double its light crude oil refining capacity.  

Now, today ExxonMobil said it is considering building a new Gulf Coast plastics plant which could open as early as 2021.
It would expand production of polypropylene, a lightweight, durable plastic, by as much as 450,000 tons a year.
The company will make a final decision on the project later this year. It's anticipated to cost several hundred million dollars and employ more than 60 people when production starts.

Random Update Of An MRO Mini Re-Frack In Antelope Oil Field; #19144 -- March 20, 2018

This is mostly being posted for newbies just to give them an idea what the Bakken is all about. We talked about this well on February 3, 2018. See graphic at that link. Now we have more production data.

The well:
  • 19144, 952, MRO, TAT USA 34-22H, Antelope, Sanish formation; t3/11; cum 364K 1/18; re-fracked in November, 2017, a mini-re-frack;
This well was drilled and fracked back in 2011. It was an "okay" well, but nothing spectacular. Over the years it managed to produce about 300,000 bbls of oil; not bad.

But then, MRO re-fracked the well, 11/3/17 - 11/5/17: but wow, talk about a small frack, only 1.7 million lbs of water; total proppant was 90.6% water and 8.9% sand. Not much at all, but look at the return. This was such a small re-frack, that for all intents and purposes, this mini re-frack must not have cost the company much:

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Whiting Has Six More Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; Three Producing Wells Reported As Completed -- Nothing Remarkable, Except For How Active Whiting Remains -- March 20,2018

Active rigs:

Active Rigs584932107195

Six new permits:
  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Truax (Williams)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a 6-well Vance pad in NWNW 17-154-97;
Eight permits renewed:
  • Whiting (3): three Roggenbuck permits in Mountrail County
  • Sinclair (3): two Crosby Creek permits in Dunn County, and one Nelson permit in Mountrail County
  • Enerplus (2): one Venus permit and one Saturn permit, both in Dunn County
One permit canceled:
  • Petro-Hunt canceled a Thorson permit in Burke County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31471, 47, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Makowsky 4-31-30-158N-99W, Ellisvile, middle Bakken ; t2/18; cum --
  • 31472, 58, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Makowsky 3-31-30-158N-99W, Ellisville, middle Bakken, t2/18; cum --
  • 32898, 96, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Makowsky 5-31-30-158N-99W, Ellisville, middle Bakken, t2/18; cum --

The Political, Market, And Energy Page, T+20 -- March 20, 2018

Toyota pauses robot-car program citing drivers' emotional toll.

Facebook's Zuckerburg in hiding.

No wonder Hillary could not win: the whole world (the Russians, the Stepford wives, Zuckerburg) were against her. No wonder she's upset.


Apparently the ex-Occidental CEO did not get the Mark Papa memo. Steven Chazen is working on a $2.7 billion deal for EnerVest Shale.  Data points:
  • TPG Pace Energy Holdings Group, a blank-check company formed by Chazen and private equity firm TPG
  • agreed to acquire about 360,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk from oil and gas investment firm EnerVest Ltd
  • TPG Pace: raised $650 million in a public offering in May, 2018
  • TPG Pace: will change its name to Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp upon closing the deal by the end of June
  • back-of-envelope: $2.66 billion / 360,000 net acres = $7,000 / acre
By the way, remember that story yesterday -- NOG to raise $120 million in new public offering? Mostly for acquisition and drilling program. If acquisition alone, in North Dakota, back-of-the-envelope: $120 million / $2,000-acre = 60,000 acres. My last update shows NOG with 145,000 net acres (2017); has had as much as 180,000 net acres (2012).

For The Archives

The Williston Herald reports that the city of Williston bought the Heddrich building and will now tear it down. 

151-98-18, Siverston, Oasis, Johnsud Federal

See production data for a Johnsrud Federal well in this drilling unit at this post.

The wells:
  • 31919, 1,413, Oasis, Johnsrud Federal 5198 11-18 3BX, BX, t6/16; cum 460K 10/19;
  • 32752 TX, t10/17; cum 278K 10/19;

  • 31327 T2, t6/16; cum 193K 10/19;
  • 31328 MB, t6/16; cum 240K 10/19;
  • 31329 T, t6/16; cum 164K 10/19;
  • 31330 B, t6/16; cum 235K 10/19;

  • 31331 T2, t6/16; cum 187K 10/19;
  • 31332 MB, t6/16; cum 271K 10/19;
  • 31333, 247, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 12-18 10T, t7/16; cum 223K 10/19;

  • 31338 T, t7/16; cum 193K 10/19;
  • 31337 MB, t7/16; cum 242K 10/19;
  • 31336 T, t7/16; cum 173K 10/19;
  • 31335 MB, t7/16; cum 283K 10/19;
  • 31334 TX, t7/16; cum 282K 10/19;

Green Energy -- The Harsh Reality -- March 20, 2018


Later, 6:34 p.m. Central Time: the Kennedy clan is no doubt getting ready for their fourth family reunion of the winter/spring to celebrate all the snow. Vencore Weather is reporting a major coastal storm with significant impact all along the I-95 corridor.  

Original Post 

This is interesting. When I first started investing in 1984, with an energy- and telecom-weighted portfolio, I always worried that I would not know when to liquidate my energy holdings, expecting that oil and natural gas would come to an end when i was in my early 60's or 70's. Not to worry. It looks like I can hold on to my energy holdings for another 50 years.

But before I get to the article, a screenshot from yesterday's Drudge Report:

Later: now it's in blue on the Drudge Report -- 11:03 a.m.:

From oilprice.com yesterday:
I recently asked a group [most likely millennials] gathered to hear me speak what percentage of the world's energy is provided by these six renewable sources: solar, wind, geothermal, wave, tidal, and ocean energy.
Then came the guesses: To my left, 25 percent; straight ahead, 30 percent; on my right, 20 percent and 15 percent; a pessimist sitting to the far right, 7 percent.
The group was astonished when I related the actual figure: 1.5 percent. The figure comes from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, a consortium of 30 countries that monitors energy developments worldwide. [And this is after decades of cajoling, fake news, tax credits, incentives, regulations, federal and state mandates.]
The audience that evening had been under the gravely mistaken impression that human society was much further along in its transition to renewable energy. Even the pessimist in the audience was off by more than a factor of four.
I hadn't included hydroelectricity in my list, I told the group, which would add another 2.5 percent to the renewable energy category. But hydro, I explained, would be growing only very slowly since most of the world's best dam sites have been taken.
The category "Biofuels and waste," which makes up 9.7 percent of the world total, includes small slivers of what we Americans call biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), I said, but mostly represents the deforestation of the planet through the use of wood for daily fuel in many poor countries, hardly a sustainable practice that warrants vast expansion. (This percentage has been roughly the same since 1973 though the absolute consumption has more than doubled as population has climbed sharply.) 
As if to underline this worrisome state of affairs, the MIT Technology Review just days later published a piece with a rather longish title: "At this rate, it’s going to take nearly 400 years to transform the energy system."
In my presentation I had explained to my listeners that renewable energy is not currently displacing fossil fuel capacity, but rather supplementing it. In fact, I related, the U.S. government's own Department of Energy with no sense of alarm whatsoever projects that world fossil fuel consumption will actually rise through 2050. This would represent a climate catastrophe [LOL], I told my audience, and cannot be allowed to happen. [He needs to take a look outside -- see screenshots above -- and quit relying on Algore's PowerPoint presentations.]
And yet, the MIT piece affirms that this is our destination on our current trajectory. The author writes that "even after decades of warnings, policy debates, and clean-energy campaigns—the world has barely even begun to confront the problem."
Much, much more at the link.

Notes To The Granddaughters

One book today: The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1300 - 1850, Brian Fagan, c. 2000

A reminder: due to all the coal-burning Viking ships, the Medieval Warm Period lasted from around 1000 BCE to about 1300 CE.

A major -- get this -- one, single, major volcanic eruption generates a cold snap, 1258 CE.

1450: "greater storminess and unpredictable climatic shifts -- and very, very cold."

1670 - 1710: "the coldest period of the Little Ice Age."

Warming begins about 1850.

Algore notes the warming trend, 1994.

The author: Brian Fagan is a professor of archaeology at UC-Santa Barbara. He is the editor of The Oxford Companion to Archaeology.

  • people dancing at fairs on a frozen River Thames in London in the jolly days of King Charles II
  • legends of George Washington's raging Continental Army wintering over at Valley Forge in 1777 - 1778
  • only two centuries ago Europe experienced a cycle of bitterly cold winters, mountain glaciers in the Swiss Alps were lower than in recorded memory; pack ice surrounded Iceland for much of the year
  • we live in an era of global warming that has lasted longer than any such period over the past thousand years [we won't mention the medieval warming period here or the era of dinosaurs -- it would not fit the story line]
Part One: Warmth and Its Aftermath

Chapter 1: The Medieval Warm Period, 950 - 1500 -- the story of the Vikings
  • 980s: Norse settlement of Greenland
  • 1066: William the Conqueror invades England
  • late 1100s: cathedral building
  • 1200: crusades begin; last for decades
  • 1258: large volcanic eruption causes cold summer
  • 1300: Hanseatic League rises to prominence
  • between 1300 - 1500
    • Great Famine (1315 - 1321)
    • Black Death (c. 1348)
    • Abandonment of Norse Western settlement, Greenland (c. 1350)
    • Hundred Years War (1337 - 1483
    • wine cultivation abandoned in England
Chapter 2: The Great Famine
  • the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
  • trade and geography made Flanders one of the leading commercial centers of 14th century Europe
  • 1315: cold weather; crops not harvested; beginning of the Great Famine
  • famine lasted for seven years
  • the story of medieval farming as much as the weather
Part Two: Cooling Begins

Chapter 3: The Climatic Seesaw
  • some experts: 1300 - 1850
  • the heavy rains and great famines in 1315 - 1316 marked the beginning of centuries of unpredictability throughout Europe
  • other authorities restrict the term "Little Ice Age" to a period of much cooler conditions over much of the world between the late 17th (1680; Industrial Revolution began about 100 years later) centuries to the mid-nineteenth (1850) centuries (right through the Industrial Revolution and into the US Civil War)
  • what caused the Little Ice Age? The answer still eludes us -- centuries later [but experts have the current cycle of global warming all figured out, and it's all because of "America," specifically the US and the GOP]
Chapter 4: Storms, Cod, and Doggers
  • back to the Vikings, when they first noted the weather change to severe cold and northern ice packs
  • Eric the Red, Norse merchant ships (knarrs): most direct route from Iceland to East Greenland, along latitude 65 degrees north, then coasted south and west around Cape Farwell to the Eastern Settlement
  • herring fishing
  • herring abounded in the North Sea
  • Dutch invented the buss, a much larger ship that allowed sailors to stay out at sea for a longer period of time
  • Dutch and the Basques: skilled boatbuilders
  • a small boat originally used on the Dogger Bank in the southern North Sea and for cod fishing: the dogger
  • English were quick to make use of the doggers; the English dogger fleets were so efficient that Iceland's leaders soon complained to their Danish masters that the foreigners were decimating the fish population
Chapter 5: A Vast Peasantry
  • village life in medieval France
  • by the beginning of the 15th century (1400), the depopulation of the countryside by famine, plague, and war had led to the abandonment of as many as 3,000 villages across France alone
  • the recurrent plagues and regular famines kept population in check for generations
  • 1430s: a run of exceptionally harsh winters
  • 1500s: glacial advance noted
  • in 1599 - 1600, the Alpine glaciers pushed downslope more than ever before or since
  • 1560 - 1600: throughout Europe, the years were cooler and stormier, with late wine harvests and considerably stronger winds than those of the 20th century
  • farming difficult across Europe; farming was just as difficult in the fledgling European colonies in North America
Part Three: The End of the "Full World"

Chapter 6: The Specter of Hunger
  • subsistence farming
  • the severe weather of the 1590s marked the beginnings of the apogee of the Little Ice Age, a regimen of climatic extremes that would last over two centuries
  • 17th century literally began with a bang; between February 16 and March 5, 1600, a spectacular eruption engulfed the 4,800-meter Huanyaputina volcano seventy kilometers east of Arequipa in southern Peru
  • the scale of hte Huanyaputina eruption rivaled the Krakatau explosion of 1883 and the Mount Pinatubo event in the Philippines in 1991
  • volcanic events produced at least four more major cold episodes during the 17th century, which is remarkable for having at least six climatically significant eruptions; none rivaled summer 1601, but 1641 - 1643; 1666 - 1669; 1675; and 1698- 1699 experienced major cold spikes connected with volcanic activity (note:1666 -- The Plague Year)
Chapter 7: The War Against The Glaciers
  • 1680 - 1730: the coldest cycle of the Little Ice Age; temperatures plummeted; the growing season in England was about five weeks shorter than it was during the 20th century's warmest decades
  • the winter of 1683 - 1684: particularly cold
  • discussion of sunspots
  • by any measure, the lack of sunspot activity during the height of the Little Ice Age was remarkable
  • the period between 1645 and 1715 was remarkable for the rarity of aurora borealis and aurora australis, which were reported far less frequently than either before or afterward
  • between 1645 and 1708, not a single aurora was observed in London's skies
  • astronomers F W. G Sporer and E. W Maunder discussed
  • glacial "high tide" in the Alps lasted from 1590 to 1850, before the egg began that continues to this day
Chapter 8: "More Like Winter Than Summer"
  • "London has never forgotten the summer of 1666." 
  • 1666: the Plague Year
  • the London fire, September 2, 1666
  • the late 17th century brought many severe winters, probably from persistent low NAOs
  • the agricultural innovations of the 17th century insulated England from the worst effects of sudden climatic change
Chapter 9: Dearth and Revolution
  • the remarkable transformation in English agriculture came during a century of changeable, often cool climate, interspersed with unexpected heat waves
  • farms grew larger and more intensive cultivation spread over southern and central Britain
  • more deaths came from infectious diseases due to malnutrition and poor sanitation than from hunger
  • the importance of the wine industry to track climate change
Chapter 10: The Year Without A Summer
  • April 11, 1815: the island of Sumbawa in eastern Java; Mount Tambora, at the northern tip of Sumbawa erupted with catastrophic violence
  • volcanologists have fixed the dates of more than 5,560 eruptions since the last Ice Age; Mount Tambora is among the most powerful of them all, given rise the legend of Atlantic
  • the ash was 100x that of Mount Saint Helens in Washington State in 1980; exceeded Krakatau in 1883
  • the years 1805 to 1820 were for many Europeans the coldest of the Little Ice Age
Chapter 11: An Ghorta Mor
  • Ireland, potato, and the Potato Famine
  • summer of 1845
  • by April, 1846, people were eating their seed potatoes
  • 1846: widespread food shortages
  • thus, the Little Ice Age ended as it began, with a famine whose memory resonated through generations
  • Ireland changed radically as a result
Part Four: The Modern Warm Period

Chapter 12: A Warmer Greenhouse
  • just a few short pages
  • interesting that the entire book focused on science, nature, climate cycles, sunspots, volcanoes, North Atlantic Oscillation;
  • the last few pages focused on climatologist James Hansen's testimony, June 23, 1988, before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee "on a day when the temperature in Washington, DC, reached a sweltering 38 degrees Celsius" [as folks would tell me, that's weather, not climate, and completely irrelevant; what a doofus]
  • El Niño and La Niña are not mentioned in the book (I didn't see this discussed, nor were the words in the index)
  • a very Euro-centric focus; not much on North America; nothing on South America, Africa, or Asia, except in passing or to discuss specific volcanic events 

Random Look At A Huge Bakken Well -- Oasis, Johnsrud Federal, #31919, North Tobacco Garden

Today we should see the initial production data for the sister well to this one, note the amount of proppant:
  • 31919, 1,413, Oasis, Johnsrud Federal 5198 11-18 3BX, North Tobacco Garden, 4 sections, 50 stages, 20 million lbs, mesh/large, t6/16; cum 377K 1/18;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Market And Energy Page, T+20 -- March 20, 2018

Re-posting. This is a very, very interesting story.

Merkel: how's that renewable energy working out? Interesting, interesting story.

The "new German government" has barely been formed and this appears to be one of the first big stories coming out of the new administration. 

Over at Rigzone, Bloomberg is reporting that "Merkel looks to LNG to cut Germany's dependence on Russia."
Angela Merkel’s government is seeking to build a liquefied natural gas industry in Germany basically from scratch to reduce the nation’s dependence on supplies arriving by pipeline from Russia and Norway.
With gas reservoirs depleting from the U.K. to the Netherlands [see Groningen story yesterday], Germany is becoming increasingly reliant on Russia for its energy needs at a time when political tensions are mounting with Vladimir Putin’s government in Moscow.
That’s prompting Merkel to think again about LNG as an option, building terminals on the North Sea and Baltic Sea that could import the fuel and bypass facilities in the neighboring Netherlands, Poland and Belgium.
Her newly formed coalition has a “ coalition contract” that among other policies sets out an energy agenda including LNG for the next four years.
Merkel backs “all initiatives supporting further diversification of gas supply -- whether from different regions or means of transporting gas,” Economy and Energy Ministry spokeswoman Beate Baron said in a note.
The furor between Russia and the U.K. in the wake of the nerve-agent attack on British soil prompted Prime Minister Theresa May to retaliate by expelling Russian diplomats and seeking alternatives to Russian gas, including LNG produced at its new Arctic plant. This followed shipments earlier this year to the U.S., which drew attention because some of the LNG was produced at the Yamal LNG plant that’s been under U.S. financial sanctions.
Less polluting than coal and oil, natural gas is taking a central role in Germany’s effort to make the economy carbon neutral by 2050. That also involves closing coal plants and investing in wind and solar farms.
Gas consumption rose 5 percent last year.
And since Germany currently has no terminal for importing the fuel in its liquid form and turning it into gas, those supplies arrived by pipeline.
Russian gas made up more than 60 percent of Germany’s total imports for most of last year.
Across Europe, LNG use is on the rise. Imports to the 28 member states increased an annualized 22 percent at the end of the third quarter, with nations such as the U.K. and Spain in the lead in developing import capacity. Still, most terminals in northwestern Europe are underused.
Merkel also is allowing German companies to promote the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, an expansion of an existing route for gas to flow from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea.
Much more at the link.

WTI Almost Back To $63 -- March 20, 2018

Notes from all over: this bit of news from Dickinson from a reader:
We are seeing oil equipment and pipes running up and down the highway every day. There will be wells drilled in Bowman County and Baker (MT) and Marmarth-Rhame (ND) very soon as well as Harding County. They are drilling in a new-found zone.

Spin? International IPO shelved. The WSJ story here. This is an interesting spin: higher price of oil has diminished push for large international public offering. After reading that sub-headline, I didn't read the rest the article. The credibility of the writer was already strained.

Mining big data could be big business for big oil. Link here

Merkel: how's that renewable energy working out? Interesting, interesting story.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs584932107195

RBN Energy: LNG and pipeline reversals turn Louisiana gas market supside down, part 2.
The supply-demand dynamic in Louisiana — and around the national benchmark pricing location Henry Hub — is rapidly changing, with LNG exports providing a new demand source in the state and both producers and midstreamers in high gear to push more supply there. These factors will disrupt existing flow patterns and pricing relationships in the region over the next two or three years, eventually turning the market entirely on its head. Today, we continue our series on the Louisiana market transformation with a detailed look at the infrastructure and gas flow trends already underway, starting with what’s going on in the eastern half of the state.
The Louisiana market is in the midst of a significant transformation. What used to be primarily a supply market is becoming the epicenter of demand growth from LNG exports, which in turn are making the state the most desirable destination market for U.S. gas supply. Offshore gas production from the federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico has been rapidly receding. There is a slew of Marcellus/Utica takeaway projects in the works to reverse existing pipes or build new pipeline capacity in order to access the Gulf Coast market (see Fill Me Up Buttercup). These pipes are expected to bring a deluge of supply to the Louisiana market. And, after years of decline, Louisiana’s own Haynesville Shale is also in growth mode again.
These shifts will alter the Louisiana market balance and the traditional understanding of gas flows and pricing relationships in the region. That’s a big deal considering that Louisiana is the home state of the Henry Hub — the national benchmark pricing location for the U.S. spot gas market and the physical delivery point underlying the CME/NYMEX natural gas futures contract. Another location — the Perryville Hub — will also play an increasingly critical role as an axis point for distributing interstate supply targeting Gulf Coast demand.
And Now A Musical Interlude

There is no video and the lyrics, for all I know, may be inflammatory, racist, sexist and/or pornographic.

搖籃曲 徐桂珠