Monday, January 9, 2017

DAPL Snow Removal -- January 9, 2017


January 10, 2017: the railroads aren't the only ones dealing with all the snow that global warming has thrown at them. The city of Dickinson, ND, in the southwestern part of the state, and a "Bakken city" is running out of places to put all that snow. And it's only early January. 
Original Post
This was posted at BNSF's Facebook page and then over at YouTube about twelve hours ago. A huge "thank you" to a reader for bringing it to my attention:

This is near Lemmon, SD, just a few miles south and a few miles west of the site of DAPL protests last year. [Near Standing Rock Reservation? It's all relative. LOL. See first comment.]

I don't know about others, but I find these videos incredible, what the human spirit can tackle.

Whiting Reports Four Nice Completed DUCs; Active Rigs Down To 37 -- January 9, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3758167193182

One well coming off confidential list Tuesday:
  • 31335, 1,719, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 14B, Siverston, 36 stages; 4 million lbs, t7/16; cum 126K 11/16;
Two new permits:
Five permits renewed:
  • QEP (2): two Moberg permits in McKenzie County
  • Hess : one BW-Hedstrom permits in McKenzie Count
  • BR: one Manchester permit in Dunn County
  • Whiting: one Helling permit in Williams County
Seven completed wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 29180, 1,905, Whiting, Moccasin Creek 8-26-27-5H, Moccasin Creek, t12/16; cum --
  • 29183, 2,205, Whiting, Moccasin Creek 8-26-27-4H3, Moccasin Creek, t12/16; cum --
  • 31225, 444, XTO, Harley Federal 24X-15E, Sand Creek, t12/16; cum --
  • 32266, 2,356, Whiting, Koala 44-31H, Poe, t12/16; cum --
  • 32287, 2,527, Whiting, Koala 44-31-2TFH, Poe, t12/16; cum --
  • 32438, 1,027, Triangle USA, Little Muddy 17H, Williston, 4 sections, t1/17; cum --
  • 32439, 586, Triangle USA, Little Muddy 19H, Williston, 4 sections, t1/17; cum --
Well name change:
  • 26732, conf, QEP, MHA 8-27-34H-148-92 (was MHA-8-27-34H-14M)

31335, see above, Oasis, Johnsrud 5198 14-18 14B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

It Doesn't Quit -- Now It's Japan -- Toyota -- January 9, 2017

Make America Great Again.

Not even in office yet.

Sucking all the oxygen out of the room.

Reuters is reporting that Toyota plans to invest $10 billion in the US over five years. Data points:
  • will match the automaker's investments over the prior five years
  • Toyota under fire for shifting production of its Corolla to Mexico from Canada
  • Toyota says this is not in response to Trump tweets; it was already part of their strategic plan
  • Toyota has 10 plants in 8 states
  • North American headquarters in Plano, TX (north of DFW)
  • the $10 billion includes Toyota's new HQ in Plano, TX
  • did not say if investment would result in any additional jobs
  • shot across the bow
  • Mexico in deep doo-doo if it ends up at the back of the Trump receiving line 
If that doesn't excite  you, maybe this will. It's a two-fer: Apple seeks to expand manufacturing in Arizona. Data points:
  • amid pressure, Apple looking to expand stateside
  • seeks to expand in its facility in Mesa, AZ
  • not much else was said
Two-fer: a) expanding in the US; b) expanding outside California
The Society Page

How to grow old disgracefully in Hollywood, by Camille Paglia. 

Update On Federal Government's "Science Project" In Missississississippi -- January 9, 2017

The story is tracked here

Posted earlier:
This debacle, recently described by The New York Times as Obama's energy centerpiece, is tracked here

Update on the Kemper Mississippi River plant, from Penn Energy:
  • Mississippi Power Co to add another month to the construction schedule
  • delay will add another $62 million to the cost of the power plant
  • new completion date: November 30, 2016
  • total price is now nearly $6.9 billion -- let's call it $7 billion, and move on
  • original cost estimate: $2.9 billion -- let's call it $3 billion, and move on
  • stockholders have absorbed $2.6 billion in losses

Where we are today: bizjournals report that the plant will be operational by January 31, 2017 --
  • I see bizjournal is also calling it a $7 billion project (exactly what I posted above some months ago
  • most recent delay due to "challenges with the gas clean-up systems for gasifier 'B'"
  • this delay has affected integrated operation of both gasifiers
  • company says facility will be placed in service by January 31, 2017
  • project's cost estimate will rise by $34 million
  • any delay after January 31, 2017: $25 to $35 million / month 

The Trump Daily Note

The Trump Presidency
The Third 100 Days
The Third 30 Days + 10 (261 - 300)
The Second 30 Days (Days 231 - 260)
The First 30 Days (Days 201 - 230)

The Trump Presidency
The Second 100 Days
 The Third 30 Days + 10 (161 - 200)
The Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency
The First 100 Days
The Third 30 days + 10
The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration
The Third 10 Days

January 20, 2017, T+70: I honestly did not think this day would ever come. The Clintons are so incredibly powerful, I truly, truly thought they could prevent this from happening somehow.

January 19, 2017, T+69: wow, look at all the GOP senators and congressmen/women showing up for a congratulatory luncheon in honor of Donald Trump, today, the day before the inauguration. And with rare exceptions, none of these guys supported Trump. He did it all by himself, despite the non-support of his party; the non-support of the Bushes; the non-support of Paul Ryan; and the outright biased coverage by all major networks and print media outlets. He did it entirely on his own.

January 18, 2017, T+68: while the lame duck is granting pardons and commutations (none of which affect 99.99% of Americans), PEOTUS is looking forward to signing four or five executive orders immediately following his inauguration. President Obama taught him how.

January 17, 2017, T+67: caught in a lie. I guess this is why John Lewis is a representative, and not a US senator. He said this would be the first inauguration he has not attended; turns out he didn't attend George W. Bush's inauguration either. [By the way: disappointing all his supporters, he did indeed attend the Trump inauguration. I guess he didn't want to pass up a piece of history; and he knew the speech would be short.]

January 16, 2017, T+66: the same polls that showed Hillary beating Trump by 15 points, continue to show Obama's approval rating at 55%. It's easy to do the math.

January 15, 2017, T+65: the best thing about waking up to a Trump presidency is not waking up to the alternative.

January 14, 2017, T+65: PEOTUS Trump won't take a question from CNN at his first press conference, saying that CNN is fake news. Less than 72 hours later, ATT says it may spin off CNN.
January 13, 2017, T+64: confirmation hearings continue. No hiccups. I still find it hard to accept that Tillerson and Sessions will get confirmed. And the rest follows from there.

January 12, 2017, T+63: it's pretty much a given that Trump does not have the 51 votes he needs in the Senate to get Tillerson confirmed. If he loses Tillerson, he loses Sessions. If he loses those two, he is likely to lose two more nominees, and possibly a fifth. If Trump does not have the votes to confirm Tillerson, he needs to pull the Tillerson nomination and not nominate anyone in place of Tillerson. The State bureaucracy can run without a Secretary. We saw that with Hillary and Kerry. Trump should tell State Department there will be no new hiring, no bonuses, no "step increases" in pay, unless the department has a Sec State. I assume federal pay crosses department lines, but I do recall there was a separate budget for Department of Defense and we were subject to RIFs (reductions in force), changes in hiring rules, etc., etc., during my time in the military. Pay for comparable jobs in Veterans Affairs was different than in the DOD. If Marco Rubio blocks Tillerson's appointment, he will have few friends in the Department of State if Trump does what he could do.

January 11, 2017, T+62: World Bank says Trump's policies could jump-start global economy. President Obama first president in modern history to never have any year with 3% annual growth in GDP. If President Trump's policies jump-starts global economy and if US shows 3% annual growth in GDP this year, people are going to start asking, "exactly what was Obama doing for eight years?"

If I Could Turn Back Time, Cher

January 10, 2017, T+61: any hope of an Obama legacy vaporized over the past 60 days. Over the weekend, the president acknowledged the shortcomings of his only "success" (ObamaCare), and says he would have no problem if it morphed into TrumpCare. With Global Fortune 500 companies lining up at the door to bring jobs back to America, the never-ending apology tour has come to an end.

President Obama to give his farewell speech in his hometown today. His theme set to music:

Every Breath You Take, The Police

Wow! It Never Quits! Now It's The Chinese -- Alibaba: To Add One Million US Jobs -- January 9, 2017

Make America Great Again.

Not even in office yet.

Sucking all the oxygen out of the room.

CNBC is reporting that Alibaba will discuss expansion plans with Trump; company aims to create 1 million US jobs over the next five years.

  • Chinese government's reaction.
  • Chinese-Taiwan relationship.
  • Taiwan president to visit US.
  • Amazon? Trump looking for competitor to what he sees as a monopoly.
  • Mexico: deep doo-doo if the country ends up at the back of the line
  • US is seeing impact of a do-nothing president on a never-ending apology tour

Whiting: December, 2017, Presentation

For newbies: my takeaways from this presentation:
  • superfracks will become the norm in the Williston Basin: > 10 million lbs of sand
  • superfracks + best locations --> EURs of 1.5 million boe (and heading higher)
  • infrastructure in place in the Williston Basin (but still transportation costs impact) 
  • although WLL gives equal billing on cover slide to Niobrara and Bakken, the Bakken accounts for 91% of WLL's Rocky Mountain (Niobrara/Bakken) production)
    • either Niobrara falls by the wayside, or there's a lot of potential there
  • ranking #1 among peers for 90-day average rate of production is quite incredible considering one of the peer competitors is EOG
Link here to presentations. Twenty-one slides.

Cover slide: bills itself as the premier Bakken and Niobrara operator.

Summary for 3Q16:
  • net cash generated by operating activities: $151 million; exceeds CAPEX of $66 million
  • production at high end of guidance: 119,890 boe/d
  • LOE below low end of guidance: $7.98 / boe
  • Williston Basin fracks: 5 million + lbs track 900,000 boe type curves after 265 days
  • Williston Basin fracks: 10 million + lbs tracks 1.5 million boe type curves 
  • thirteen (13) new McKenzie wells test at average rate of 3,727 boe/d
  • announced sale of Dakota Midstream assets for ~ $375 million
Williston Basin
  • Bakken / Three Forks
  • 105,645 boe/d (3Q16) ( 105,645 / 116,590 = 91%)
  • Niobrara A, B, C & Codell / Ft Hays
  • 10,945 boe/d (3Q16)
Williston Basin
  • 443,125 net acres
  • 99% held by production
  • development plan
    • 1,280-acre spacing units
    • targeting 900,000 bbls boe EURS
    • 5,471 potential gross drilling locations
  • forecast: 22 DUCs at end of CY16
  • completed well cost (CWC): $6.8 million 
Williston Basin: highlights two wells, one unit: average IP
  • P Bibler 155-99-16-31-30-1H (#29693); 2,674 boe/d; 10 million lbs; tracking at 1.5 million boe EUR
  • Carscallen 31-14-4H (#32340); 2,766 boe/d; 13.6 million lbs; tracking at well over 1.5 million boe EUR
  • Rolla Federal unit: 13 wells
    • Bakken average: 3,445 boe/d (3 wells)
    • Three Forks average: 3,8012 boe/d (10 wells)
Bakken/Three Forks: gross acreage by county
  • Mountrail: 172,888; 18% of total locations
  • McKenzie: 165,319; 28% 
  • Williams: 147,208; 32%
  • Stark: 87,084; 6%
  • Dunn: 55,385; 8% 
Slide 10: "first super completion Three Forks well exceeding 1.5 million boe type curve
  • Rolla Federal 11-3-1TFHU; 10 million lbs
  • graph shows impact of "flowing back frack load"
  • tracking well above 1.5 million boe EUR
Ranking among Bakken peers, 90-day average rate
  • #1
  • peers include: Newfield, Oasis, EOG, QEP, XTO, Hess, BR, and SM Energy
  • source: NDIC
  • range: 1,080 (WLL) all the way down to 374
Drill times:
  • steady decline since 1Q12
  • 3Q16: 14.64 days
  • 1Q12: 39.43 days 

4Q16 Earnings

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings Calendar

Earnings for the current quarter will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earning season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note: by 4Q16 I lost a lot of interest in tracking earnings. I'm not sure where I will go with this page. In fact, there are more and more days when ... no, I won't go there. 

Maybe a few.

AAPL: crushes expectations;

BHI: reports Thursday, January 26, forecast a loss of 11 cents; wow, wow, wow -- adjust loss, 30 cents;

CARBO Ceramics (CRR): reports Thursday, January 26, forecast a loss of 70 cents; shares up 30% after company reported earnings that showed a strong uptick in sequential revenue; a 57-cent loss vs 70-cent loss forecast;

Comcast (CMCSA): reports Thursday, January 25, forecast a gain of 87 cents; currently trading at all-time highs; more buybacks? even as shares trading near all-time highs;

CVX: reports Friday, January 27, forecast a gain of 66 cents; huge miss; only 22 cents; shares down almost 3%; Cramer not worried;

EW (Edwards Lifesciences): beats estimates; 75 cents reported; full year EPS at $2.89, up 24.5% year over year;

F: reports Thursday, January 26, forecast a gain of 33 cents; big stumble; profits down 60% from a year ago, mostly due to a $3 billion drop in its pension plan; revenue down 4%; a fourth-quarter loss of $800 million; adjusted earnings matched estimates; reaffirmed its forecast that profits for 2017 would be lower than 2016;

Flowserve: net income, 50 cents/share; adjusted, 72 cents/share; average estimate was 65 cents/share. 4Q16 net income, $65.1 million; full year profit at $145.1 million.

GE, forecast 46 cents; revenue slipped; dragged down by oil woes; shipped fewer jet engines and power turbines than originally planned; actual: 39 cents, down from 64 cents / share year earlier.

HAL: Halliburton reported an adjusted profit of 4 cents a share, topping forecasts for 2 cents. But its sales of $4.02 billion fell short of analyst forecasts for $4.09 billion. Conference call link and comments.

H&P (HP): January 26, forecast a loss of 36 cents; 

Hess: reports Wednesday, January 25, forecast a loss of $1.11; narrower loss than expected: $1.01; transcript; production will surge in 2017;

MDU: 28 cents forecast; beats by 5 cents; misses on revenue.

MPC: Marathon Petroleum Corp., February 16, 2017.

Marathon Petroleum, February 1, 2017: moving sharply higher. Easily beats estimates; attributed to refining. Forecast, 26 cents; actual: 43 cents. 

Sounds Like A Beat

MRO: earnings are out. EPS, a loss of $1.62 per share; adjusted, came to 10 cents/share. It's a bit confusing, the following statement at the linked article:
The results exceeded Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 13 cents per share.
But then this:
The energy company posted revenue of $1.39 billion in the period, also beating Street forecasts. Four analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $1.19 billion.

MSFT: January 26, forecast a gain of 78 cents; actual, 39 cents GAAP, 69 cents non-GAAP. At SeekingAlpha, EPS of 83 cents, beating by 4 cents.

Oasis, earnings; forecast a loss of 12 cents/share; actual -- a loss of 8 cents per share. This loss vs a profit one year earlier. For the year, the company reported that its loss widened to $243 million, or $1.32/share. Revenue: $700 million (rounded). 

OXY huge miss on EPS; but beats on revenues: EPS loss of 13 cents vs 3 cents forecast; revenues came in at $2.826 million, marginally beating the forecast of $2.806 million. 

SLB: another loss, 15 cents / share, compared with a loss of 81 shares a year earlier. Forecast for 27 cent gain.

SBUX: January 26, forecast a gain of 52 cents; not having a good day; down 4%; results mostly in-line; but guidance is way down -- 10% at best vs earlier guidance of double-digit growth;

T: January 25; earnings meet; revenues miss; shares participating in market surge; pays almost 5%;

XLNX: January 26, forecast a gain of 49 cents; great report; better-than-expected: 52 cents

WMB: earnings are out. Earnings and revenues beat estimates. EPS, 17 cents, vs 16 cents forecast. Revenues of $2.198 billion handily beat forecasts of $1.889 billion.

Whiting, 4Q16, earnings presentation

XOM: huge miss; 41 cents vs 70 cents forecast -- that was the crawler at CNBC early this morning; CNBC is now reporting a huge beat -- "XOM beat earnings as revenues increased, though the company took a $2 billion impairment charge, mostly due to lowering the value of its US gas assets; excluding one-time items, Exxon reported a fourth-quarter profit of 90 cents/share, versus Wall Street expectations of 70 cents/share.

Steady At 39 Active Rigs -- January 9, 2017

ROE: I have a post "in draft" in which I list the areas in which Trump can have a huge impact without outside interference. One of the data points: ROE -- rules of engagement for the military. Today, we get our first example. Today it is being reported that a US Navy destroyer fired three warning shots at four Iranian fast-attack vessels after they closed in at a high rate of speed near the Strait of Hormuz. It's newsworthy for several reasons, least of which is not the fact that under Trump the military will have greater influence on ROE. I talked about that on Saturday and the end of the never-ending apology tour.

Golden Globes: I'm sure the "foreign press" is thrilled to see that by Monday morning everyone had forgotten who won what at the awards show, while everyone is focused on the insecurity of Meryl Streep with regard to the new president. Another cupcake, it appears.

Tweets: CNBC continues the theme that presidential tweets are "dangerous." CNBC even managed to have a former CIA director agree that presidential tweets are a danger to national security, not his exact words. TeenVogue tells us the former CIA director was miffed that he wasn't getting enough face time with PEOTUS.

Fallon flounders: that's the overnight analysis of Jimmy Fallon as host of the Golden Globes. I wouldn't know (I didn't watch the awards show; I was watching season three of Miami Vice); but if the internet says it, it must be true (about Fallon flounders).

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3958167193182

RBN Energy: stock levels whipsaw the propane market, part 2.

The Market

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Early this morning, on CNBC, Jim Cramer, in passing mentioned that the "breakout in AAPL" was huge.

I Look Up When I Walk, So That The Tears Won't Fall -- Sukiyaki

#9 in the 20-song countdown.

Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto