Sunday, July 14, 2024

When Folks Talk About Decreased Bakken Activity, I Simply Shake My Head -- So Much Work Left To Do -- Grayson Mill / Ovintiv Increased Density Wells -- Westberg Oil Field -- Update -- Originally Posted December 22, 2022 -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48135WESTBERG.

Updates

July 14, 2024: updated maps -- were Ovintiv's -- now Grayson Mill --


 


Wells of interest
:

  • 19750, 1,111, BR (no typo), Devils Backbone 21-14H, Westberg, t4/11; cum 365K 5/24; 
  • 20595, 1,832, Grayson Mill, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-1H, Westberg, t9/11; cum 358K 5/24;

Original Post
Originally Posted December 22, 2022
From The NDIC Hearing Dockets, December, 2022

I could have this wrong, but if I'm reading this correctly, there will be a total of nineteen wells in this drilling unit, as well as an additional two wells in a neighboring drilling unit. 

Spacing:

  • 1280 acres / 20 wells: 64-acree spacing

Case, not a permit, from the NDIC December, 2022, hearing dockets:

  • Case 29716, Ovintiv, Westberg-Bakken; to authorize an additional thirteen wells on a 1280-acre unit; sections 13, 24-152-97; authorize two wells to be drilled on two 2560-acre units, sections 13, 14, 23, 24-152-97; and sections 13, 24 -152-97 and sections 18, 19-152-96; seventeen wells total; McKenzie County;

Existing wells:

  • 20595, 1,834, Ovintiv, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-1H, Westberg, t9/11; cum 336K 10/22;
  • 31013, 1,348, Ovintiv, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-11H, Westberg, t9/15; cum 250K 10/22;
  • 31011, 1,348, Ovintiv, Wahus Federal 152-97-13-24-11H, Westberg, t9/15; cum 160K 10/22;
  • 23277, 2,000, Ovintiv, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-3H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 249K 10/22;
  • 23276, 921, Ovintiv, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-10H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 165K 10/22;
  • 23275, 2,102, Ovintiv, Darlene Federal 152-97-13-24-2H, Westberg, t1/13; cum 226K 10/22;

The graphics:


Focus On Dividends -- BK -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48134BK.

Dividend increase:

History:  annual, $1.68 to $1.88 (0.20/1.68) = 12% increase. 

If the only income an heiress received was from dividends from inherited BK stock, her annual income just went up 12%.

Top Ten -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48133INV.

Link here.

The AI Narrative Continues Unabated -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48132AI.

Like the EV narrative, the AI narrative continues unabated. 

Link here.

From the linked article

The growth of Artificial Intelligence has come on so strong and so fast that it threatens to destabilize the energy industry, the economy, and the climate.
Last week, Google stated that its carbon emissions have skyrocketed by a whopping 48 percent over the last five years.
“AI-powered services involve considerably more computer power - and so electricity - than standard online activity, prompting a series of warnings about the technology's environmental impact,” the BBC reported Thursday. Indeed, a recent study from scientists at Cornell University finds that generative AI systems like ChatGPT use up to 33 times more energy than computers running task-specific software. Furthermore, each AI-powered internet query consumes about ten times more energy than traditional internet searches.

And some folks still don't  think the AI revolution is real.

How much proof do they need.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- This Just Popped Up On My Twitter Feed -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48132INTEL.

We've talked about this for quite some time (see comments -- one of which is posted below).

Tech is tracked here. Chips are tracked here.

Now, we have the data.

Link here

The headline:

A typical comment:


The Day After — Biden, Faux Presidential — Trump, Doing What He Always Does On The Weekend — Golfing — July 14, 2024

Me? I’m swimming.

Locator: 48131FAUXPRESIDENT.

Investing -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48130ROUNDTABLE.

****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Tech: link here

Roundtable: link here. Spoiler alert: no need to read this article. Complete waste of time. If you do fall for the clickbait, go immediately to the comments.

From the linked article:

  • from notes made by phone over the past two weeks;
  • previous meeting: all met together, in NYC, January 8, 2024;
  • 48 investment picks for the second half of 2024 -- some beyond;
  • Rajiv Jain: upbeat; in the glass-half-full camp; 14 stock picks; of note: 
    • TTE, PBR, SHEl, NVDA, ASML
  • Meryl Witmer: surprised by the market's strength; 3 - 5% headwind; looking for companies that generate ample cash flow; named only two companies:
    • first named: Mercedes-Benz Group; Rush Enterprises / RUSHA
  • Scott Black: neutral in initial comments; concerned about fiscal policy; doesn't think market will broaden out; named only two tickers:
    • SLB (wow!); RenaissanceRe Holdings / RNR
  • Mario Gabelli: concerns -- probably tariffs on Chinese goods; the geopolitical situation; US debt and deficit; big on natural gas; names only three tickers:
    • Atlanta Braves Holdings / BATRK; National Fuel Gas / NFG; Campbell Soup / CPB;
  • Henny Ellenbogen: narrowest market in two decades; two picks:
    • Coupang / CPNG; West Pharmaceutical Services / WST;
  • David Giroux: yada, yada; named three tickers:
    • Auror Innovation / AUR; Danaher / DHR; Revvity / RVTY (formerly known as PerkinElmer);
  • Sonal Desai: bullish, but not overly so; eight picks, all income-producing ETFs or ETF-like income producing vehicles; none interest me;
  • Todd Ahlsten: a sunny view; three picks:
    • Alphabet / GOOGL; Broadcom / AVGO; and Salesforce / CRM;
  • William Priest: a good market in 1H24; likely to be more choppy 2H24; three picks:
    • Meta Platforms / META; Broadcom / AVGO; two Japanese plays that don't interest me;
  • Abby Joseph Cohen: US economy is in good shape; doesn't see a recession; talks like JPow; four picks, none of which interest me;
  • John W. Rogers, Jr: tech getting close to peak; sounds a bit concerned about tech; four picks:
    • Paramount Global / PARA; Mattel / MAT; Boyd Gaming / BYD; Madison Square Garden Entertainment / MSGE
  • 138 comments so far:
    • reader noted that the roundtable: average age is mid-60s; youngest is around 50;
    • best comment: These articles touting all these obscure foreign and domestic stocks is something less than entertaining and makes me tired. My wife tells me I'm a genius and I agree! My genius is in recognizing I'm not a genius. Bogle and Buffet showed me the way over 15 years ago. Low cost ETF's on broad based indexes. 2/3 IVV and 1/3 QQQ/FTEC. Going on 17 years in retirement and doubled what I retired with at 55 and no pension. (SS at 70 of course). Don't disagree until you perform a back test. Live well and prosper. The END. 
    • one reader "underwhelmed." I agree.
    • another reader: "This is a list of the clueless. Go to cash. That is what the smart money is doing."
    • this from another: "I love the front page picture...NOT ONE SMILE. If you look at the stats in the article about their performance in the first six months, you quickly understand why."
    • "this is a tired group and, yes, Gabelli is still promoting the Atlanta Braves."
    • "the only golden nugget: SLB."
    • Another great comment: "The market is full of bright ideas and we get Mattel? Paramount? Atlanta braves? MSGE again? Corrupted Adani? Campbell soup? Do people still eat that? I would rather put some seeds in the ground, water it as needed and stare at it assuredly until the first sign of sprouting emerges. Celebrate by jumping up with joy rather than buying and watch these forever losers."

Headlines -- Sunday Morning Newspaper -- iPad Surfing -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48129HEADLINES.

Tag: salt.

Breaking 

Google: link here. Wiz: a cybersecurity firm. Israeli. Fast-growing.

***********************
PSA

Mercedes Benz: there are so many tickers associated with Daimler Benz I can't keep up. 
I do know that the "DDAIF" ticker has changed to MBG.DE (or something similar) -- Mercedes Benz Group.Germany but I believe there are others, and then there's the Daimler Truck Group (DTG). 
****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

*************************
Energy

Oil and gas:

Not on my bingo card: link here. Was this reported by CNBC last week? If so, I missed it.

Oil and gas tickers are seldom discussed on CNBC but when they are, it seems big cap energy stocks are held by some / many / most analysts / contributors. It's really weird; it's almost as if no one wants to amit they hold any of the majors or the independents. 

The meme is that fossil fuel companies are like the tobacco companies: a dying industry.

The dirty little secret: oil and gas are going to be with a long, long time. It may or may not be growth industry in terms of more volume sold but the price of oil / natural gas unlikely to fall, and if oil / gas to come down in price, it will be insignificant and not long-lasting. 

The big story today: the breakeven price for oil for Saudi Arabia is $100 / bbl. $85-Brent is not going to cut it for the Saudis.

In the states, it's all about natural gas and hyperscalers / large data centers / web services.

Utilities will get more interesting. Previously discussed. 

*******************************
Energy: Oil

US energy: it's all about fossil fuel. Still. And demand is likely to increase.
comparing the fossil fuel industry to the tobacco industry is so incredibly wrong

Breakeven, for Saudi: $100. Link to Bloomberg

*******************************
Energy: Utilities / Natural Gas

Past year, one-year return; share price; p/e; dividend:

  • SRE: 4%; $77; p/e 17; pays 3.22%;
  • CNP: 0.6%; $30; p/e/ 21; pays 2.64%;
  • Duke: 16%; $96; p/e --; pays --
  • Dominion: -1.3%; $52; p/e 27; pays 5.1%; 
With a P/E of 17 and a dividend of 3.22%, and largest utility in two largest US markets (CA and TX), it seems SRE is the best of the lot.

 *************************
Autos 

EVs: the narrative continues.

  • my hunch: movers/shakers; traders have lost interest in EVs (Tesla might be an exception) and have moved over to crypto and tech.

Read this previously posted blog

Today, two new car reviews:

  • the Mercedes Benz AMG GT 63 PRO, 2025
  • the Porsche Panamera, 2024; link to The WSJ; Dan Neil, again;

Re-posting:

********************************
Radio

Coast to Coast.  

This story would have been linked anyway but there's a special place in my heart for this one.

Link to The Atlantic

*******************************
Harvard Billionaire

There must be some really, really rewarding vocations.
Golf seems to be not one of them. Golf seems incredibly one dimensional, which I would argue applies to all sports / all athletes.

But other "vocations" that some would give their eye teeth for, as they say:

  • Harvard professor
  • US Senate majority leader
  • realtor, Palo Alto, California
  • BNB host / book store owner, Cape Cod
  • fourth-generation rancher, Montana
  • third-generation restaurateur, 

Back to the Harvard professor. Link here to Forbes.

***************************
Recreation

Ketamine. A treatment for long-haul Covid? Link to Vanity Fair

On the blog: do a word-search for "micro-dosing."

 ***************************
Salt

Link here.

**********************
Rambling On Investing

We will start here, with baseball:

The MLB club team: 28 players, with a limit of 14 pitchers.

The farm team / the minor leagues / the major league reserve list: 40 players.

I watch CNBC religiously -- well, at least for the last two years -- I very seldom actually watch five or six hours on any given day, but maybe once a week, I will watch three hours in one day, but religiously I try to catch two one-hour shows each day: the Jim Cramer show first thing in the morning, and the half-time report, mid-day. 

Investing and the MLB: lessons an investor can learn from the MLB, including the new rules to speed up the game.

CNBC provides holdings by some of their contributors, including those on the "Halftime Report." Some have a few; some have a lot. Some are investors; some are traders; some do a bit of both.

In fact, the "60-40" rule --which applies the the equity - bond mix is better suited for one's portfolio: 60% investing; 40% trading.

I like to think as myself as an investor, 100%, but in fact, I'm probably closer to 80-20, although even the 20% is bought with a long-term horizon in mind.

So, having said, like the MLB, I like to hold about twenty equities in my long-term accounts, and about 20 companies being followed but not yet owned, but ready to be called up at a minute's notice. If a "new" equity is "called up" I like to sell something to keep my portfolio in the 20-ticker ballpark. No pun intended. 

In general, among the 20, I do not include the legacy holdings that I have had so long that it makes almost no sense to sell them as long as they remain great companies. With dividends over 40+ years, many of my oldest holdings -- still very good companies -- are trending toward a cost basis of $0.

Oh, I almost forgot: the MLB's new rules to speed up the game. One of the bigger lessons I've learned over forty years of investing: the downside of holding onto losers way too long. And waiting too long to bring up great companies in the reserves when they've got MOJO. 

Very important: watch those forty equities in the reserves, and be ready to invest when they get hot. If one is fully invested and doesn't have the cash necessary to buy, two options: a) raise money through tax loss harvesting; and/or, b) buying on margin. If I buy on margin it's with the expectation I will have the cash within seven days. Things have gotten easier since Schwab announced that, in general, they will close trades in one business rather than three business days.

****************
Disclaimer Briefly Reminder
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, 
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.  

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Week -- July 14, 2024

Locator: 48128B.

The wells:

  • 39968, conf, Petroshale, Primus 2TFH, Antelope, npd,
  • 39636, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-2, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20241258617011
4-20241242513751
3-20241190612744
2-202452458213
1-202437944111
  • 39967, conf, Petroshale, Primus 2TF2H, Antelope, npd,
  • 40255, conf, CLR, Chase 2-18HSL, Jim Creek, npd,
  • 39966, conf, Petroshale, Primus 1MBH, Antelope, npd,
  • 40256, conf, CLR, Chase 3-18H, Jim Creek, npd,
  • 40257, conf, CLR, Chase 4-18H, Jim Creek, npd,
  • 39893, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-9, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20241327528003
4-20241431327454
3-20241558825780
2-20241515625194
1-20241195316694
  • 39638, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-4, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20241179015834
4-20241164013154
3-20241309513433
2-2024988915771
1-2024175470
  • 40405, conf, CLR, Chase 5-18H, Jim Creek, npd,
  • 40430, conf, Neptune Operating, Gustafson 5-8 5H, Buffalo Wallow,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20242641230024
  • 39637, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-3,Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20241226916787
4-20241159212929
3-20241335914653
2-20241179618481
1-20242819921802

The Van Gogh Candidate — July 14, 2024

Locator: 48127TRUMP. 

Leading up to this: the Dem talking points this past month -- "time to take Trump out."