Thursday, October 3, 2019

Idle Rambling On A Late Thursday Night -- A CLR Cedar Coulee Carus Well -- October 3, 2019

As mentioned earlier, I'm going through every 16XXX well -- see this note for background.

Every time I want to quit for the night I find another incredible example of "something."

I lost track of this well. I followed it for awhile. See this post. But it seems I completely lost track of it.

So, how is this well doing?

The well:
So, that was April 14, 2019.

This was the production profile going into 4/19:
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20187121430202027150
BAKKEN10-20183163757910710446619
BAKKEN9-20183062075583104025610
BAKKEN8-20183164652793106119623

Pretty grim, huh?

It sort of got worse, if that's possible:
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-201942081946350246902428

Now, the most recent two months:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2019314058640539547404857947682478
BAKKEN7-20193042528423386015053111457916925

And that's why I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. It's like a box of chocolates. I never know what I'm going to find next.

Also, take another look at that well. Who's drilling that well. Yup. Harold Hamm.

By the way, this was the production profile for this well for the first six months after it was originally drilled/completed:
BAKKEN1-20083192069299378763376330
BAKKEN12-20073184488431305705970590
BAKKEN11-20073087738617249810781070
BAKKEN10-200731117721182956410697106970
BAKKEN9-20073014220141808586236230
BAKKEN8-20073110833107292252000

Compare that 14,220 bbls in September, 2007, to the 42,528 bbls in July, 2019, twelve years later.

And there literally thousands of these wells in the Bakken.

Cutting The Cord; Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- October 3, 2019

I mentioned the other day that I "cut the cord." That's an evolving story. The problem is that my wife still enjoys a few cable networks.

But I haven't watched television in a couple of weeks now. I quit watching NFL games and I quit watching NASCAR, for reasons I discussed earlier.

I was just going to sign off for the night and watch a Perry Mason episode on Amazon Prime.com and this pops up:


I had no idea. So, here we go. An NFL game for free, streaming on Amazon Prime.com. Absolutely amazing. The annual NFL Game Pass is $99.99. I'm getting NFL with my Amazon Prime.com subscription. No additional cost. And my television remains off.

Too bad I'm not watching the NFL any more. LOL.

Okay. On to Perry Mason.

(Okay, I cheated. I checked in on the NFL game on Amazon Prime.com just to see if is was the "real thing." OMG. It is. It is the Fox Network. And the clarity -- amazing. I cannot believe it. I never knew.) And I can watch it no matter where I am. I don't need to be home. Amazing. I can watch it at Starbucks. Anywhere there is wi-fi. Which is pretty much everywhere.

From Variety

This is exactly how I feel:


And now this. I mentioned I added a third telephone line through Sprint the other day. I didn't pay attention to all the "stuff" I got with that additional third line but my daughter read all the paperwork and says I got "free Hulu." I did not know that. Apparently "Hulu with commercials." Amazing. I cut the cord and I end up having more access to "stuff" than I ever had before.

Now, for real entertainment (sorry; I've posted this one many times):

Cry To Me, Rocco and Claudia
 "Rocco" -- reminds me. I once met "Rocco", a Hollywood personality, while a medical student at USC, on a pediatric unit at Children's Hospital Los Angeles. Some great photos of the hospital at this link. Wow, what an incredible life. Alex Rocco? There are times I want to live forever. Rarely, I'm ready to call it a life. Check out. And then I get to pick up Sophia. LOL.

Idle Rambling On The Bakken, My Second Favorite Subject -- October 3, 2019

I'm going through every well that was permitted / drilled / completed back in the 2008 time period, by permit, the 16XXX series. I do this periodically, from time to time, take a specific series of permits and go through them. For example, I am doing the 16XXX series this week; maybe next week I will do the 17XXX series. And so on.

I literally go through every well -- it will take several days. But it is really amazing. Sure, there are a lot of wells that have not done particularly well, but they are still in production. But in general, I find it amazing how many wells show a jump in production, again for any number of reasons.

As I go through the list -- remember, these are the 16XXX wells -- one thousand of them -- 99% of them Bakken --and "we" have just begun the 37XXX series wells (October, 2019) -- that's (37000 - 16000 = 21,000 Bakken wells). I was saying: as I go through the list, the 16XXX wells drilled back in 2008 or thereabouts, all I see are scores (or hundreds) of wells that need to be re-fracked. It is absolutely amazing.

The problem for the operators is not whether to drill or not, whether to re-frack or not, the problem is what to prioritize? The operators are simply limited by resources: money, people, time, etc. I'm convinced Harold Hamm thinks about this 24/7.

I don't think anyone has any idea how much work needs to be done in the Bakken, just with the wells that are already drilled. It is simply amazing.

Here's another one.

Jack Pennington,  #16778.

16778, 354, MRO, Jack Pennington 21-28H, Reunion Bay, t8/08; cum 561K 8/19; 

Test date: back on August 14, 2008. An IP of 354 in Reunion Bay. Ridiculous. Piss-poor as they say. Today, one would expect the IP in a Reunion Bay well to be 2,000 to 3,000. Maybe more.

This well's initial production in 2008 was pretty unremarkable, maybe even lousy: see the first six months of production below. If this well cost $10 million to drill / complete at the time, and at $50/bbl, this well produced 25,000 bbls x $50 = $1.25 million in the first six months. Not very good. In fact, lousy. A lot of folks would have called it "uneconomic."

Ten million dollars to drill/complete and only a million dollars to show for it after six months. (These days, these same wells might pay for themselves in the first six months). First six months production for this wells back in late 2008. The best it ever did at that time, a lousy 6,000 bbls/month.

BAKKEN1-20093028333355395124201242
BAKKEN12-20082826532391465116301163
BAKKEN11-20082548375073910211802118
BAKKEN10-20083147344304840207302073
BAKKEN9-20082441974072993183801838
BAKKEN8-200827609258282573266802668

By 2014, six years later, this well had declined to 1,400 bbls/month -- the dreaded Bakken decline rate:

BAKKEN5-201431142514212401460891231
BAKKEN4-201430137614522211349858164
BAKKEN3-201431129112542181165479363

If a conventional well, it was likely ready to be abandoned, at worse; or, at best, sold as a stripper well. A stripper well: 10 - 15 bbls/day.

But then look what happened in August, 2014:

BAKKEN4-20153096119607311814239115491491
BAKKEN3-201531106111075133931702015273429
BAKKEN2-2015281053410609323415049114512306
BAKKEN1-201530128781280940031369678044340
BAKKEN12-201431148371486046291948717085630
BAKKEN11-2014301735317242584221687184701182
BAKKEN10-201431220822207386131905978628653
BAKKEN9-20142319564197341027517440424010975
BAKKEN8-201419129941295843901151134646519

Just like that, magic! In those nine months: 130,464 bbls of oil produced. At $50/bbl, $6.5 million in less than a year. And that doesn't include natural gas, etc.

Then, by August, 2016, it was back down to 5,000 bbls/month -- very, very respectable, and no one was complaining, but then look what happened in May, 2017. Another jump. More magic:

BAKKEN12-20173193969366537310480924535
BAKKEN11-2017308946893352471085480221686
BAKKEN10-201731109461090069011346288083288
BAKKEN9-2017301091110854752311766104090
BAKKEN8-2017311152011549856212537111090
BAKKEN7-2017311110511259988812136107530
BAKKEN6-201730101079974105371254696001676
BAKKEN5-2017311045510416145831303886753049
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20162844864532136661495040467

Another 83,000 bbls in eight months, between May, 2017, and the end of the year (2017).

The well is still producing a very, very respectable 4,000 bbls/month, and my hunch is that we will see another jump in production in the next couple of years.

And I can find example after example after example of these wells. Absolutely amazing. Something I don't think we see in conventional wells and something no one seems to be talking about even when it's staring them in the face here in the Bakken.

Remember: Hubbert's theory applies to individual wells as well as fields and basins. 

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I may see things that don't exist. I will make typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

********************************
Another One

These are not hard wells to find. They simply keep popping up

I could have used MRO's Bill Connolly 21-25H well as an example also, but I think I've discussed it a couple of times already.

But it's another great example.

Completed back in early 2008; a pretty average well for that time period:
BAKKEN7-200823272426811477126512650
BAKKEN6-20083030282898699134413440
BAKKEN5-20083133113457725152115210
BAKKEN4-20083037323639844185818580
BAKKEN3-200831475346561045197719770
BAKKEN2-200829574658111239213221320
BAKKEN1-2008268262792221433133130

Then:
BAKKEN7-2014313262336211732149761853
BAKKEN6-20143036713909144125301333624
BAKKEN5-20143038813921181830351864586
BAKKEN4-20142826792571143520051090460
BAKKEN3-2014262192185516751382697294
BAKKEN2-201426001603
BAKKEN1-201443000400
BAKKEN12-2013313201203017
BAKKEN11-20133015446249270189

Then:
BAKKEN7-20193118771188782207923061171024143
BAKKEN6-20193022893228083117620766140154676
BAKKEN5-20193124374245254640319440102486967
BAKKEN4-20192629475295359024520752534412964
BAKKEN3-20195450237552027831545572030
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-201812344031969
BAKKEN10-20183184468024378642012

Production Jumps 33X -- From 600 Bbls/Month To Almost 20,000 Bbls/Month --The Appledoorn Well, Bailey Oil Field -- October 3, 2019

And, yes, somewhere down the road, we'll see a second jump in production. It's just a matter of time in the Bakken. 

The well:
  • 16923, 279, MRO, Appledoorn 14-19H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 311K 8/19;
Production period of interest:
BAKKEN6-201830612859085660576617263488
BAKKEN5-201831755675976737645844621334
BAKKEN4-20183078927903726671195347749
BAKKEN3-201831955596528776740361990
BAKKEN2-201828993699069246819469660
BAKKEN1-201831129691293012703103908374445
BAKKEN12-2017311637216507176731134961223297
BAKKEN11-2017301889618655279201224734306626
BAKKEN10-2017151060910470711865685374812
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-20172544944512238116228
BAKKEN4-2017305598827947819745
BAKKEN3-20173056029019948717587

The Incredible Bakken -- The MRO Voigt Well In Bailey Oil Field -- October 3, 2019

See this post for background.

Previously reported back in late 2017. How has this well done since then? Cumulative has more than doubled in less than two years.
  • 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t5/08; cum 203K 11/17; now, 441K 8/19 re-fracked 8/17; re-frack with 45 stages; 5.5 million lbs;
Period of interest:
BAKKEN11-20183010383102979185915564331880
BAKKEN10-201826112021127210833990963312712
BAKKEN9-2018111819186418701846166626
BAKKEN8-20183111081110339680983189390
BAKKEN7-201831121571211910689104598965532
BAKKEN6-20183013283132611186199348482431
BAKKEN5-201831129531303910748902667531266
BAKKEN4-2018301664816633153901213060744097
BAKKEN3-2018312080720900218661273359154409
BAKKEN2-2018282259022465251761367672803814
BAKKEN1-20183126722267043313617924135201364
BAKKEN12-201727143711436918379833922724386
BAKKEN11-20173017493173452132795615057006
BAKKEN10-201722286832872755415237012043
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170000000
BAKKEN6-20170000000
BAKKEN5-2017589641058040
BAKKEN4-2017306616631485410292
BAKKEN3-201731691677149607135214

Flashback: Hurricane Season Predictions For 2019


Prediction: same prediction for the 2020 hurricane season. The 2020 hurricane season will be either above-normal; near-normal; or, below normal.

A lot of it has to do with fudging data, or as someone might suggest, whatever the definition of "is" is.

Tesla -- Earnings -- HIstorical -- October 3, 2019

In anticipation of Tesla earnings to reported before the end of the month, let's take a look at history.

Link here.


But with billions of dollars in debt coming due next year, it's not so much about quarterly gains and losses, it now becomes a matter of a) free cash flow; and, b) attitude of creditors going forward.

In the last two quarters, losses have exceeded estimates. Will it be a hat-trick this October, 2019? Or in bowling, a turkey.

Zavanna With Three More Permits Near Williston -- October 3, 2019

Active rigs:

$52.4610/3/201910/03/201810/03/201710/03/201610/03/2015
Active Rigs5866573368

Three new permits, #37034 - #37036, inclusive:
  • Operator: Zavanna
  • Fields: Stony Creek, Cow Creek
  • Comments:
    • Zavanna has permits for a 3-well Leopard pad in Stony Creek/Cow Creek, section 20-155-100
Seven permits renewed:
  • Oasis (3): three Fraser Federal permits in Williams County
  • Resource Energy Can-AM (3): two Ranger permits; one Trooper permit, all three in Divide County
  • EOG: one West Clark permit in McKenzie County 

Idle Chatter Regarding the "Halo Phenomenon" In The Bakken; "The Bakken Magic" -- October 3, 2019

Updates

October 5, 2019: as of today, I'm going to start referring to this phenomenon as "the Bakken magic." And unless someone shows me that it is happening in the Eagle Ford or the Permian, I will consider it unique to the Bakken.

Original Post 

This post was quickly done: not ready for prime time.

At an earlier post, a reader wrote:
One thing to watch for (not saying it's a problem, just something to check): FracFocus is known for slow reporting of recent completions. See the discussion by EIA in the DPR. So, I worry that some of your "no refrac" comments may be about wells that did have a refrac that will show eventually. Maybe looking at several of your posts from over a year ago, where you said there was no refrac, will now show that there was a refrac.
Not saying this is a major issue. But it may affect some of the wells you look at.
I replied:
You are absolutely correct. I do believe that FracFocus did not "capture" wells that were fracked before 2012 or thereabouts, and I've mentioned that on the blog. FracFocus went "live" sometime around 2012.  It's possible FracFocus will go back and "capture" these early wells. I don't know.
However, now that FracFocus is active, I find that FracFocus posts frack data before the NDIC, or better said, perhaps: when I can't find frack data at the NDIC site, I often find it at FracFocus.

FracFocus also "never" makes a mistake. I put "never" in quotations because there are always exceptions. I have found one -- yes, one -- mistake over at FracFocus (amount of proppant) and I pointed that out on the blog.

Finally, "all" Bakken wells are fracked. When I say a Bakken well has not been re-fracked, I'm talking about a second frack. "All" Bakken wells are fracked at least once. "All" is in quotation remarks because there always exceptions.

Now, a couple more points:
When I find a well that, based on a huge jump in production, "had to have been re-fracked" and FracFocus does not have that data, I check the operator's sundry forms at the NDIC site to see if there is evidence of a re-frack. It now seems to be rare where FracFocus does not have the data of a fracked well when the NDIC has that data.

Second, and this is very, very important. When I first started seeing "jumps in production," what I ended up calling the "halo effect," I tried to see if there might be some explanation. There could be many different explanations for a "jump in production," and that's why I called it a "halo" effect early on and did not get more specific.

I now feel very, very comfortable with the phenomenon, regardless of the reason for a jump in production for a specific well -- as noted, it can be for many reasons.

Because I feel very comfortable with this phenomenon, I generally no longer seek to find the answer. I no longer care. Don't take that out of context. I care, but I only have so much time to check things. Again, there are and there will be exceptions. I generally no longer check the sundry forms, or the NDIC GIS maps, or FracFocus looking to explain "this" phenomenon. I no longer care. The purpose of the blog is to get a general feeling of the Bakken, not to sort out each and every well.

I have gone back to looking at this "halo phenomenon" from the point-of-view of the small mom-and-pop mineral owner. Most small mineral owners do not care why their royalty checks increased.

In addition, from an investor's point of view, I have yet to hear even one analyst (in the earnings conference calls) ask whether this phenomenon exists. [I think there may be an exception to this also but if there was it did not amount to anything.]

So, in general, I'm back to square one, or perhaps better said, I'm switching gears again on this subject. In general, I will only note the jump in production. It will be by exception if I look for a possible reason. I no longer care if I know the exact reason for a jump in production for any given well.